Raila Vs Ruto Political Duel: Raila Fast Digging His Political Grave!

See also most recent article by Chris: Why Ruto will win the war against Raila
Some of the things Kumekucha is reading: Annonymous comment costs employee his job

By Guest Writer

In the height of post-election violence, William Ruto and Najib Balala were key ODM figures who fought the Raila’s mass action war of “stolen” presidency like their own personal fight and the TV images of the two fleeing in Nairobi streets from mean-looking GSU officers lobbing tear-gas at them are still fresh in my mind. The two men were ready to die for Raila. Remember Balala even shed tears when he stepped down for Raila during ODM presidential nomination at Kasarani. That’s as far as the marriage of convenience lasted.

The unfolding drama and imminent fall out in ODM was not unexpected but I could not imagine Raila falling out with Ruto and Balala. The fall out best explains how Kenya politics is fluid. Raila largely owes his position and the powers he enjoys to Ruto and Balala. Apart from vigorously campaigning for Raila in the 2007 General Elections, Ruto and Balala took charge of Raila’s mass action call and rallied ODM supporters and their affiliate tribes to civil disobedience to protest Kibaki’s controversial win. The fall out is a big lesson to other politicians and tribes – never fight another man’s war or kill in their name.

If Raila called for the mass action and only Luos heeded his call, Kenyans wouldn’t have been subjected to PEV or violence would have been minimal and of little consequence. But Ruto’s powerbase, the Rift Valley, was the main battle zone for PEV and the tragic and barbaric events in the province were what put Kenya on the international radar. Without Ruto and Balala and the Rift Valley primitive slaughter, Raila would have reluctantly settled for the humble position of the Official Opposition Leader. But thanks to the blood of innocent Kenyans, Raila landed on the prime post he is now using to flex his muscles against the foot soldiers and lieutenants who killed and uprooted innocent from their homes and businesses in his name.

Ruto and Balala are the equivalent of Martha Karua, who toppled the scale against Raila on the finishing line and ensured Kibaki got a controversial second term. Without Karua, Kibaki would have kissed goodbye to the presidency. The Krieger Report told us neither Kibaki nor Raila could stake a high moral ground and claim they legally won. ODM and PNU fiddled with election results in their strongholds. Kibaki and Raila loyalists can fume with that assertion but that’s the reality. For that, Raila and Kibaki equally share the blame in 2008 PEV.

The seeds of hatred were sowed by Kibaki when he refused to honour a pre-election MoU with Raila when he came to power in 2002. Kibaki added fuel to the fire when he started weeding out key Kalenjins from his new Administration. Kalenjins regarded the presidency to be synonymous to Moi and as if State House was their property. They were bitter loosing power to a Kikuyu. Ruto and Kalenjins would be consigned to the political dustbin were it not for Kibaki’s poor judgment in politics.

After the fall out with Kibaki over dishonoured MoU, Raila’s only option was to team up with Kibaki’s enemies and that’s how Kalenjins and leaders who had looted state coffers or had criminal records (some murderers for their roles in 1992 and 1997 tribal clashes), and killers likes of Ole Ntimama, got a new lifeline. Raila and his new-found allies saw the best way to fight Kibaki was to pour petrol to the fire of hatred, which he had lit with the dishonoured MoU. The birth of ODM after the 2005 referendum was based on pure hatred towards Mt Kenya folks and revenge against Kibaki. Thanks to Kibaki’s failures and fall out with Raila, Moi today looks like a saint despite his many dark evils in his 24-year rule.

ODM big guns and their supporters held divergent personal and political ideologies and their marriage was only for convenience but not driven by desire to bring genuine change and reforms in Kenya. These were strange bedfellows. ODM was meant to replace Kibaki’s eating club with new or re-packaged thieves and looters. But the revenge against Kibaki and by extent his tribe, the Kikuyus, was the temporary glue that brought political conmen, looters, murderers and graft lords together. The glue held up to the 2007 Presidential elections and Kenya went to elections in a charged and polluted environment. The ODM unity of purpose – to kick out Kibaki from State House – was what made Raila’s mass action call work. Sooner or later, party time and honeymoon was going to be over for Raila and his ODM.

Unknown to Ruto and Balala, Koffi Annan was pushing for ceasefire and a Grand Coalition Government without revealing his true intentions. He wanted to bring peace but ensure killers were punished. In fact, Raila and ODM were the ones who wanted Annan and the international to intervene claiming they had been robbed of the presidency by Kibaki. Kibaki and his allies were content after retaining the presidency and they didn’t want Annan to come in.

Raila and ODM got an upper hand and Kibaki conceded to share power. The man ODM saw as their saviour had a trick up his sleeve – unleashing the ICC and Ocampo after the PEV dust settled. Ruto and his ODM thought the PEV issue ended as soon as Kibaki and Raila signed a peace deal. How mistaken they were! To the disbelief of Ruto, Balala and others who suspect their names were in the Waki envelope, Raila backed trial of PEV suspects. This is after Raila had equated the PEV killers to freedom fighters! What a betrayal from the mass action general.

Raila looked at 2007 General Election as the end of the world – it was a do or die. He forgot he could loose and vie another day. His mass action call gave birth to mass murder and Kikuyus suffered the most. Raila realised the folly of his mass action call and warmed up to Kikuyus and to the larger Mt Kenya people after he invited Kibaki to his Bondo home. He now enjoys a good working relationship with Kibaki.

When relations improved, Kibaki cleverly pushed the explosive Mau eviction issue to Raila and the PM enthusiastically took it up hoping to win an image of a national and international leader. Raila has received a huge sarcastic backing from Mt Kenya folks on the Mau issue – but that will remain as far as Mau forest is concerned. In public, Mt Kenya folks displaying their “support” to Raila in regard to Mau, while in private laughing as Raila’s burns the bridges that propelled him to where he is today. Doubt this? Read comments on Daily Nation website everyday and guess who are cheering on Raila.

In evicting Kalenjins from Mau, Raila is stepping on the toes of murders, thieves, looters and land grabbers who had played a key role in his 2007 presidential campaign and what he is today. The current fall out was inevitable. Mt Kenya are arguing Raila is unknowingly revenging on them for what Kalenjins did to their Gema kinsmen in 2008. What a better way to get revenge for Kikuyus killed and uprooted from RV? By using their 2007 hero, Raila!

Those who wish away Kikuyus to play a major role in any election are doomed. Kikuyus have the numbers and they vote to preserve their selfish interests – to protect their wealth. In this regard, even if a Kikuyu doesn’t vie for the top seat in 2012 to avoid a repeat of the backlash of 2007, the community will play a big role in deciding Kenya’s next CEO. If no Kikuyu garners for the top seat, Raila’s campaign will be largely deflated as he will not have the ammunitions he had in 2007, rallying other tribes against Mt Kenya folks. Raila’s political future will be doomed.

Unlike Luos who openly express their anger and thoughts and you can easily read their mind and next move, Kikuyus are the opposite. Luos may have celebrated too early that they managed to drive a final nail in the coffin of the frosty relations between Kikuyus and Kalenjins – stemming from land in Rift Valley. Kikuyus in Rift Valley may never mend fences with Kalenjins. But Kikuyus in Central Province and elsewhere have nothing to loose in mending fences with Kalenjins as long as that will place them in leadership or the next Government. Furthermore, Kikuyus and Kalenjins have a lot at stake – land in Rift Valley. What have Luos to offer Kikuyus? Kikuyus can bury their past grudges as long as Kalenjins are willing to accommodate them in RV.

In this regard, Raila made the 2007 General Election look like a personal battle against Kikuyus and majority of Kikuyus believe they would not have fallen victims and suffered so much due to PEV were it not for Raila. Even before 2007, majority of Kikuyus openly said they couldn’t vote for a Luo, more so Raila. Raila’s tribal and hatred politics that led to PEV permanently burnt his political bridges with Mt Kenya folks. Raila may have toned down his hard politics on Kibaki to please Mt Kenya folks, but they are unlikely to ever forgive him for the PEV.

From the look of things, Ocampo is unlikely to go after Kibaki and Raila. Kibaki loses nothing since he is doing his last term. If Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta are both indicted by Ocampo over PEV and leave Raila, Kikuyus and Kalenjins will be united by a common purpose as happened in the recent Mau evictees fund-raising. The common enemy for the two tribes will be Raila and they will never forgive him for his mass action call that gave birth to PEV and took their sons to Hague.

In such a scenario, the person who will be smiling all the way to the bank and likely to reap is one Kalonzo Musyoka. He’ll tell Kikuyus: “I rushed to boost Kibaki from Raila on slot after the disputed polls and you retained the presidency.” He’ll turn to Kalenjins and tell them: ”I warned you about Raila. Look at what he has done with you with Mau and with Ruto.” The Mau eviction and PEV trials were the turning point of Raila and Kalenjins and only a divine intervention can save Raila from the imminent tsunami he faces in 20120 and beyond.

Raila mistakenly believes if Hague takes Uhuru and Ruto, his ambitions to rule Kenya are home and sealed. I bet Raila will die like his father before he rules Kenya. The best Raila and his father managed is a step away from the throne. It is very unlikely Kibaki will back Raila in 2012 and Kikuyus are very unlikely to vote for Raila come rain come sunshine – even with Kibaki’s backing.

Lacking a better strategy to tame the Ruto-Balala axis, Raila has resorted to laughable theatrics by challenging them to quit the Cabinet. That’s a very cowardly challenge. If you are an employer and your employee openly defies you, do you keep daring him to quit or you sack him? A rogue employee looses nothing clinging on and making trouble from within. Ruto and Balala have equally hit back and said they did not fear being sacked.

Raila’s frequent challenge to Ruto & Co to quit shows he has no moral courage to fire the group. He would be digging deeper his political grave. Raila is playing holistic politics. Didn’t the same Raila rock Kibaki’s Govt from within in Narc and after becoming PM? I believe Ruto and Balala have psychologically set their minds Hague is real. They must have decided even if they went to Hague, they’ll sink the political ambitions of the thankless general they fought for.

Raila is fast digging his political grave and if I was him, I would do all I can to win back the Ruto-Balala axis, to win their tribesmen and women. Due to his greed for power, Raila is fast digging his political grave while being cheered by his enemies and his blind supporters. Let’s wait and see if the powerful Kikuyu block with vote for him in 2012.

Kibaki in his first term evicted settlers from Mau forest. Raila ganged up with Ruto and his allies denouncing Kibaki and introducing hate and tribal politics. They used Mau evictions as ammunition against Kibaki in 2005 referendum. When campaigning 2007 presidential elections, Raila and allies perfected hate politics and again used Mau to settle scores with Kibaki and assured settlers they wouldn’t be evicted. Raila scored political mileage and won Kalenjin votes. Ruto and allies perfecting what their master taught them.

Kibaki has last laugh as Raila’s hate politics returns to haunt him. Kibaki is playing clever. He agreed to a truce with Raila and allows him to flex his muscle and exercise his perceived and illusionary powers (Kibaki retains all executive powers) as he sits back to enjoy his former enemies fighting each other and their general.

If Hague prunes Ruto and Uhuru from Kenya’s political map, I encourage doubting Thomases and Raila’s blind ardent follows to keep a copy of this story as a historical reference. I love this show. Who would have expected a fall out after all the chest-thumping in ODM in the run up to 2007.


P.S. And on the CoE constitution, I share Moi’s stand and concerns. Kenya should have one CEO, pure presidential and system. The CEO’s power should be drastically watered down and checked by strong judiciary and parliament. All appointments must be endorsed by Parliament to curb tribalism and nepotism. Two centres of power will put Kenya permanently on tension due to power struggle between president and PM, driving away investors and tourists. Two centres of power will spell doom for the future survival of Kenya. Raila and his like-minded shud should seek our mandate if they want to rule but not grab power through back door.

Kumekucha Weekend Special is back!! Don't miss the most controversial posts here in a long time this Saturday and Sunday. Topic; The Big Luo political kitendawili. Chris is truly BACK!!!

Kumekucha changes his position: Why Ruto will fell Raila

I have no problem with constructive criticism. Most people think that I concede too easily and too quickly at the earliest sign that I have been proved wrong. If you ask me most people never want to be proved wrong and can argue for hours just to maintain appearances and an image of never being wrong. That is really sad because learning becomes almost impossible with such a kindergarten attitude.

Anyway I am writing this post to change my position on the ongoing Raila/Ruto war. Earlier I said that I believed that Ruto will go down first. Now I am writing to say that Raila will go down first.

I used history to write my last post and somebody challenged me with the same history to prove me wrong. I have dug deep into my history books and I have no option but to agree with them. I firmly believe that history always repeats itself; I have seen it happen too many times.

Let me give you the historical facts and arguments presented to me.

On 26th June 1958 Oginga Odinga (father to Raila Odinga) made his famous “Kenyatta tosha” move in parliament (Legco). He did this by doing what was then “unthinkable”. In a speech he later referred to as “his bombshell in the house” he said that those convicted in Kapenguria were “still the real political leaders” of Africans in Kenya. He singled out Jomo Kenyatta and compared him to Makarios, the then exiled leader of Cyprus. Makarios was a religious leader and it was obvious that Odinga was elevating Kenyatta to almost godly status. The colonial government did not mince any words and governor Sir Evelyn Baring made it clear that the government had no intention of allowing Kenyatta to return to active politics even if he were released. But the political impact on the ground was huge (just as Odinga had intended) and Raila’s dad had set in motion a chain of events that would give the presidency to Kenyatta on a silver platter.

It was clear what had motivated Odinga senior. It was his deep hatred for the much younger Luo called Tom Mboya who had outsmarted him at every turn. He could not stand the idea of watching the young upstart climb to power and loathed the idea so much that he preferred a Kikuyu to his own tribes-mate.

More importantly in retrospect, Odinga launched tribal politics in Kenya for the first time. He chose Kenyatta because Kenyatta was a Kikuyu and he knew that the bedrock of Mboya’s support in his Nairobi constituency were the Kikuyu. Odinga senior was to play this tribal card again and again in his political battles against Mboya who firmly remained a nationalist to the bitter end.

My critic says that Odinga seniors’ motivation was exactly the same as that of Raila in rejecting Uhuru Kenyatta as the presidential candidate for Kanu in 2002. Raila chose Mwai Kibaki not because he liked him but to frustrate the youngster Uhuru from ascending to the presidency. Like his dad he could not bear to see the youngster rise to power above him while he watched. Hence the “Kibaki tosha” statement that gave the presidency on a silver platter to the Kikuyu once again and this time round to one Mwai Kibaki.

Back to Odinga senior; the relationship with Kenyatta was warm and cordial at first and he was even appointed Kenya’s first Vice president. However Jaramogi Oginga Odinga quickly got disillusioned and frustrated by the Kenyatta administration of thieves who never saw any prime land they did not want to grab. The Kenyatta administration was quick to identify Odinga and the Luo community as a serious threat and many lives were saved and chaos averted because of this wisdom in Kenyatta and his close advisors.

Mwai Kibaki took a much longer time to realize that Raila was a threat after the initial honeymoon had ended. As late as a few months to the presidential elections of 2007 many Kibaki advisors were saying that Kenyans would never elect “an Luo Kihehe (uncircumcised)” to the presidency. This lack of foresight is what led to the chaos and blood shed that will be the Kibaki legacy long after he is gone.

Kenyatta identified Tom Mboya as the man he would use to neutralize the Odinga threat. Kibaki has identified Ruto as the man to use to neutralize the Raila threat to him and his administration. Mboya won and so will Ruto.

Jaramogi Oginga Odinga remained very powerful and influential amongst the Luo people but was powerless because he had been forced out of mainstream national politics. I now believe that exactly the same thing will happen with Raila. He will remain very influential in Luo Nyanza politics but will fade out of national politics.

Mboya was killed and elevated to cult status as a result of his death. I believe Ruto will be removed from the scene and end up in some prison cell which will elevate him to cult status amongst the Kalenjin. It is not too dfficult to imagine the Kalenjin talking about Ruto in the same awed tones as they still talk about their military hero and leader Koitalel arap Samoei. Ironically one of Ruto’s names is Samoei. Read all about this amazing Kalenjin secrets in my earlier post. Read This one first.

Away from history there are some telling pointers on the ground that point to a Raila downfall in the very near future.

For starters he has made the same mistake Mwai Kibaki made in 2005 in thinking that he would still win the referendum for a new constitution he had crafted with Wako, with the big landowners of Kenya on the opposing side. Have you ever wondered why the Kenyattas, Mois etc were so firmly against the new constitution (redrafted by Wako)? It was the simple matter of what that draft had to say about land policy and a truth and reconciliation commission. In simple language passing that new constitution in 2005 would have meant that the Kenyattas Mois etc would have ended up losing their vast tracts of land (and thus wealth).

If Raila sees the Mau evictions to their logical end, one of the biggest losers (apart from William Ruto himself) will be former president Daniel arap Moi and his sons. The Kenyattas are very worried because after Mau other parcels of land countrywide are sure to follow. While it is important for Kenya and Kenyans that Raila wins this gallant fight, the political reality is that he cannot. He is already a marked man. Give the powerful landowners of Kenya a few weeks and their money will have done its work and gathered enough votes in parliament to easily pass a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. But before that the president will appoint a new leader of government business in the house and Raila will no longer have the clout in the house to reject the appointment this time.

Folks ODM is dead and no matter what Steadman polls say, Raila is no longer the formidable national political figure he was in 2007. If you can’t hear what I am saying, then please try and read my lips ODM IS DEAD AND BURIED!!!

K-Whatever Alliance: Will it Survive the Coming Tsunami?

Why Matiba and Rubia Are Disgusted By Some MPs of the 10th Parliament

One thing I always admired in Kenneth Matiba was his slogan kuuga na gwika. Loosely translated from his native language, this means walking the talk. Matiba, then a throughly frustrated cabinet minister in late eighties courtesy of the then KANU Organising Secretary, quit the then ruling party KANU in a huff – something that was unheard of in those days of single party dictatorship. Matiba and Charles Rubia went on to create an alliance that campaigned for repeal of section 2a of the constitution, and this eventually led to their painful detention without trial. But ultimately, Moi, then strongly supported by some leaders still at the scene today, finally caved in to the pressure that these two gallant Kenyans started and allowed multi-party democracy in Kenya. In the earlier years, when most of the current chest thumping Rift Valley MPs were still enjoying free Nyayo milk at primary school, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the late George Moseti Anyona and many others had also tried to register their own political parties but they also ended up in detention courtesy of fimbo ya Nyayo.

Many other patriotic Kenyans have walked the talk or kuuga na gwika like Matiba would put it. This list cannot be complete without one Raila Odinga – who was incidentally also detained without trial for the umpteenth time - after he was joined by Matiba and Rubia to champion calls for multi-party democracy in the late eighties. Later on, Raila Odinga also quit the then leading opposition party FORD-K in 1997 to little known National Development and six months later run for president emerging 4th in an election that was rigged in favour of Moi and KANU. Kuuga na gwika!

The freedom of speech that many Kenyans now enjoy is owed to the efforts of these Kenyans who at one time or another put their lives on the line to fight the Moi autocracy.

The current pretenders to the throne masquerading as provincial representatives of Central, Rift Valley, Coast and Lower Eastern, pale in comparison when put on under the same microscope with the likes of Matiba, Anyona or Odinga. Charles Rubia must be exhausted at switching off TV channels and shaking his head in disgust whenever the press cameras go to a funeral in Rift Valley. The current crop of Rift Valley MPs are certainly no match for a lady who was elected as the first woman MP from Rift Valley and who was known as Chelagat Mutai. This lady was among those who dared to challenge the Kenyatta regime when the president’s word was law. We dearly miss this gallant daughter of Kenya! These current MPs have completely abused the freedom of speech that those of us who have walked the painful road of democratizing this country laboured for.

Today, although the politics of Kenya has evolved from what it was in the KANU era, it is still not apparent to the Panafric Hotel party goers that politics is now issue driven. Luckily, even a village peasant in rural Kenya knows this and this is why some of them are lining up to voluntarily return irregular MAU title deeds and also register the Mau secretariat. Some rookie MPs are refusing to accept this obviously acting at the behest of their status quo benefactors.

These MPs led an assembly at Panafric Hotel under the guise of raising funds as aid and humanitarian assistance to Mau Forest IDPs. But because many Kenyans do know that most of those who were at that so called future high table, including the convenor of the fund raiser, are themselves owners of huge tracts of illegally acquired land, some of which they have sold on to unsuspecting members of the public. In reality, the fundraiser was itself a total failure when looked at from a political angle. No wonder Moi is asking them to go back to KANU and take lessons on how to play premiership politics!

To add insult to injury, a quick follow-up of the of the Panafric fundraiser with successive public rallies in Lugari and Kwale to drum up support for the new K-whatever alliance ended disastrously when they were totally snubbed by the locals leaders and wananchi. Clonning the ODM Pentagon is no easy task especially if you omit the well known common denominator that brings the mwananchi to his rallies and his party.

Ironically during the same weekend, the Prime Minister was addressing a massive rally in Kibera's Kamukunji grounds in which he dared the land grabbers of yesteryears to quit the government if they were men enough. The prime minister was inferring to a situation where ministers unanimously adopt government policy today only to run back to funerals tomorrow to disown the same policies they helped create and adopt! Political observers also took note that the PM could be re-constituting yet another history making politburo when he declared that yet another tsunami is coming to wipe all the trash into the sea. Older Kumekucha bloggers know that in politics timing is everything and the time comes, it will be revealed here very promptly. Watch this space!

Despite all the disgust, the Rt Hon PM still found time to share a drink with us patriotic citizens at the popular Birongo Square (Nairobi West) after watching the Harambee Stars versus Zambia game. It was indeed a candid sitting in which we told the PM to keep up the efforts at reclaiming our valued water tower! Clearly the PM ridding on the back of huge public support judging by the pandemonium he caused at the busy shopping center.

The last one week has been a very humbling experience for the so called future leaders. The message they have received from churches, mosques, FM call-in programs, newspapers and other public forums is that they are now deemed to be promoters of impunity, betrayers of the Kenyan dream and a liability to the reform process that is already underway. In fact, the MAU land baron’s threats to introduce an ill-advised motion of no confidence against the prime minister has apparently suffered a painful still-birth after it received no support, even from the same crowd that gathered at Panafric. Suddenly, some Rift Valley MPs find themselves very lonely and very afraid. I think they will be totally shocked at what will happen to their already declared presidential candidate come 2012.

When the rest of country is brainstorming the all important Harmonised Darft Constitution, it is truly sad that some sections of society want to treat us to useless KANU era theatrics. It churns one’s stomach when we see that these are the same characters who are serving as Kenya’s VPs, DPMs, and Ministers.

Shindwe kabisa hiyo pepo mbaya.

Kibaki’s hand in the Mau battle and how history always repeats itself

What many people don’t know about a writer called Mario Puzo is that he struggled most of his life to make enough money to put food on the table. In fact he was mostly unable to feed his own family until the age of 49 when he wrote a book called The Godfather. I love the novel and have watched all the movies based on it from the first to The Godfather III. I even watched the movies with my young son to teach him about life. There is no other movie that I have watched three times and can still watch a fourth time. You can read Mario Puzo’s amazing biography HERE.

With all due respect to some of our commentators here in Kumekucha they need to read the book and/or watch the movies to get into their heads that politics is a very brutal “game” (if you can call it a game). If it is a game, it is the only game I know where you can kick your opponent when he is already dead on the ground and not only get away with it but get wildly cheered for it.

I promised in my last post that I would do some serious digging on the Mau politics (which I am still doing) but I have stumbled onto something major which I would like to share today.

Most of my readers hate history and those who read it don’t take time to study it and instead read it hurriedly to twist it to suit their current political interests and worship of certain individuals. And so bear with me as I go back into history so that you understand what exactly is going on at the moment.

In the mid sixties, shortly after independence, the Kenyatta administration identified the Luo community as the main threat to the long term survival of the corrupt land-grabbing government. They identified one Jaramogi Oginga Odinga as the main threat. This man had handed over the presidency on a silver platter to Kenyatta not because he loved him but just to frustrate fellow tribesman and arch rival Tom Mboya from ascending to the same office. He did it in one move where he stood up in the Legco (the parliament of the time) and said that Kenyatta was “like a God to Kenyans” and there was no way the country would attain independence with Kenyatta still in detention thius kick-starting a campaign for the release of Kenyatta. But after Kenyatta became Prime Minister and then president, Jaramogi quickly got disillusioned with the Kenyatta administration and especially the murderous bunch who surrounded the old man who just wanted lots of wealth like there was no tomorrow and were ready to murder to retain the status quo at all costs.

Kenyatta gave the job of “dealing with Jaramogi” to Tom Mboya who accepted the task with glee mainly because he had a couple of scores to settle. At the same time Kenyatta made it appear that he was a great supporter of Jaramogi and even gave funds towards some of his pet projects. The impression created to keen observers was that there was a power struggle over the Kenyatta succession between Mboya and Odinga senior. It was only much later that those analysts realized that the whole thing had been engineered by Kenyatta himself.

Mboya won that battle and by doing so signed his own death warrant as David Goldsworthy so ably analyzed things for us in his landmark Mboya biography: Tom Mboya: The Man Kenya wanted to forget.

Now let’s fast forward to the present.

Many people do not know it but Mwai Kibaki is facing the biggest political fight of his career. For Mwai Kibaki this battle is bigger than the one he faced for 10 years as Vice president to Moi when he had to survive. He finally lost that one (with lots of casualties including his own father). And it is also much bigger than the one he fought to remove Moi from power and ascend to the presidency. A grand battle where he almost lost his own life. Yep, this one is far greater.

Mwai Kibaki is faced with two major threats. William Ruto and the Kalenjin community on one side and Raila Odinga on the other. Unchecked these two could make his future living hell on earth with a big possibility that the member for Othaya could live out his retirement in the serenity of a prison cell.

Like Kenyatta did in 1964, the president has to decide which of the two is the bigger and more immediate threat. I believe that the president and his close advisors have decided that it is William Ruto.

Now just as Kenyatta had to get rid of Oginga without being seen to be in direct confrontation with the Luo community, Kibaki has to isolate Ruto and somehow retain the support of as many Kalenjins as he possibly can.

And that is how the Mau forest (an issue that the Kibaki administration had ignored for months suddenly swept to the forefront of Kenyan politics). It is NOT Ruto using it for political mileage, it is Kibaki. In one single move Mwai Kibaki and his close political advisors may just succeed in destroying ODM and at the same time neutralizing both Ruto and Raila forever. Interestingly there are many who believe that Mwai Kibak will have no option but to support Raila for the presidency in 2012 (forget it, there is no new constitution being passed, lets wait and see).

How will Ruto be finished? (a commentator said here yesterday that he does not see how this will be accomplished). That is a fair question.

Have you guys forgotten Ruto’s soft underbelly so quickly? It all stems from the way he accumulated his vast wealth so quickly. As you read this the man still has a case pending in court (do you guys realize how rapidly a case file can be retrieved to land on the Ag’s desk through political motivation?). And we have not even started talking about the post-election violence and the ICC at the Hague. One of the two will fell this cocky, arrogant legislator and when it happens all blame will be heaped on one Raila Odinga and NOT Mwai Kibaki. This is significant because it means that with a bit of luck that ridiculous contraption called KKK can survive Ruto’s downfall. The new point man from the Rift Valley may just be Gideon Moi whom as I mentioned here earlier has been on grassroots campaign mode for a very long time now. Or it could be a close ally of Ruto who will castigate “those who finished Ruto” and urge the community to stick to the KKK alliance to seek revenge. All too neat and I have a feeling it is too neat to succeed. In any case it does not matter who the new Kalenjin “tribal chief” will be after William Ruto.

I am very reliably informed that the president’s closest and main political advisor currently is one Ambassador Francis Muthaura (something that I found so difficult to believe that I had to look for a second source to confirm this, which I found). The president’s chief advisor on Kalenjin politics is of course retired president Moi. When you know how these two gentlemen think then it is very easy to confirm or dismiss the contents of this post.

There is one final bit of tell-tale evidence that makes the scenario depicted here very believable. Have you noticed that the relationship between Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga has improved dramatically as the relationship between Ruto and Raila has worsened almost at the same pace? That, my friends, is very telling indeed.

Why did Uhuru call Raila "stupid"?

Break ups are very nasty things indeed. Very few people are able to manage them, let alone live with the new reality they present to the two individuals concerned. And I am talking about relationships where those concerned are passionately and deeply in love with each other.

Najib Balala and Raila Odinga were once inseparable. I remember the tearful moment during the ODM presidential nominations in late 2007 when the handsome mzee from the Coast publicly stepped down in favour of “the Captain.” Not even that Nyagah guy from Embu stepped down for Raila. And this was after Mr Balala had already spent a small fortune campaigning for his presidential bid. I saw Raila shed tears and I said to myself if that man becomes the next president of Kenya then Mr Balala is going to be a very powerful man indeed.

Alas, human relationships are not that predictable. As you read this the two are bitter enemies. Balala took a very direct swipe at his party chief during the controversial Mau fund raiser when he said; “Look at this high table here. This is the future. If you are not here you are not the future.” There was loud mocking laughter at the end of his comment because there was absolutely no doubt who he was referring to as “ NOT being in the future.

Then at the same meeting Uhuru Kenyatta angrily said that “there are some people who are very stupid.” He quickly recovered and tried to make excuses saying that he had never hurled abuses at anybody from a podium in his life. But it was too late and again it was clear who the insults were directed at.

The clincher for me came when the increasingly busy (politically) Jimmy Kibaki addressed a meeting and started by telling people that he had brought greetings from Honorable William Ruto. Who is Ruto?

So what the hell is going on?


Why don’t we start by asking what has caused this bitter break up. Remember that in a real relationship the true reasons are sometimes so petty that neither of the parties will even talk about them. At other times they are so serious that they will talk of nothing else. So which is it in the case of Balala and the man who shed tears because of him not too long ago? I believe the Raila/Balala problems started with very petty issues like Balala not getting enough attention and not being given quality time. But they quickly escalated to more serious issues like the involvement of the said gentlemen in the post election skirmishes. Indeed on the surface this seems to be the same reason that Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta are so bitter against the Prime Minister. But why should they be so bitter and yet the PM has dutifully protected all the murderes in ODM and has even defied Ocampo and stuck with his fellow principal Mwai Kibaki in insisting on a local tribunal to try post election violence suspects. For my slower readers a local tribunal means that the real culprits will go scot free no matter how much noise Kenyans make. Muta-do?

Some analysts believe that it is all political and that is why Balala, Uhuru Ruto etc are under the banner of KKK. This KKK rubbish is meant to signify the union of three major tribes in 2012, namely Kamba, Kikuyu and Kalenjin. Actually in my book the real name for this ridiculous “contraption” that will never work is Kalonzo, Kenyatta and Kipruto (the order is significant). But that is a story for another post very soon.

Let me admit to you folks that the real reason why there are such bitter feelings of animosity towards the PM is still a mystery to me. But I am digging and you guys know that when I start digging I never quit until I am able to solve all my mysteries and cold cases.

But the Jimmy Kibaki mystery I have already solved and I will tell.

Remember how I have said in many posts here that Mwai Kibaki’s schemes are usually so perfect that they never work? Well the president is still at it. If a leopard can ever get rid of its spots then you can expect that he will change soon. Admittedly in this case the president is borrowing heavily from the political notes of one Jomo Kenyatta who often fanned battles between his close lieutenants and then supported both sides, even going as far as financing both sides. Once upon a time Kenyatta had let loose Tom Mboya to destroy Odinga Oginga (Raila’s dad) and he gave hefty donations to both sides so that Oginga started believing that Mboya was acting on his own. Fast forward to the present and the president is fully backing Raila Odinga in the Mau battle. But he is also fully backing Ruto and the KKK alliance.


P.S. I stand by my headline in the last post where I asked if Ruto will survive. My opinion is that both Ruto and Raila are finished politically (only that they don’t know it yet.) However Ruto will fall first and Raila may survive even to the next presidential elections where it will dawn on him at the very last minute that his time (politically) is up. Hold me to account for this prediction, if I forget.

Will Ruto survive this one? What about ODM?

The ongoing battle within ODM that has pitted agriculture minister William Ruto against Prime Minister Raila Odinga is unprecedented. Little wonder that obituaries are already being written about the once very popular political party called ODM.

I believe that this development is serious enough for me to abandon the ongoing debate on the draft constitution at least momentarily to discuss it.

Is this the end of ODM as we once knew it?

Just examine the history of political parties since the resumption of multi-party politics in Kenya. Remember the mighty united original Ford? What about NARC? What happened to those political parties? What happened to them is exactly what will happen to ODM. As much as many of the regular readers to this blog would hate to hear such a suggestion, that is the truth, and you hardly need to be a prophet to predict it. You simply need the patience to read a few paragraphs of history and the intellect to make simple comparisons.

The nature of political parties in Kenya is that they usually self-destruct the minute they complete the journey of getting their main passenger to the seat of power. The political parties that survive are those that are unsuccessful in this mission, they remain alive to fulfill their mission in time. In other words if ODM survives intact to field a major presidential candidate in 2012, then it will be the exception and history will have been made.

Many analysts who are unaware of what is going on behind the scenes are puzzled that Ruto should vote for the Mau evictions only to turn round a few weeks later to strongly oppose the same Mau evictions. The answer to that puzzle is not too difficult to decipher. In simple language William Ruto is fighting for political survival and has chosen to use the Mau has his trump card. What has happened is that Ruto has made too many enemies with his arrogant lone-ranger ways and some of these enemies have ganged up together to fight him as their common enemy. This would not have been too big a problem except that some of those enemies are powerful “monied” and experienced enough to be a great cause for concern for the Ruto camp. Retired President Moi and Raila Odinga are now on the same side in a bid to see this “upstart”-young-man-who-is-in-a-terrible-hurry, completely defeated. Granted Moi is using old political tactics that are definitely on their last legs. Like the creation of the Kalenjin Council of elders. Gideon Moi has also been in campaign mode for a long time and if you followed him and did not read any other news on Kenya you would be sure that the general elections are going to be held next month. The strategist and brains behind his every move is of course his father. Granted, Moi senior is still smarting from the resounding defeat he suffered in the hands of Raila in 2002. But he is even more upset about the more recent defeat in the hands of this young man called William “who does he think he is?” Ruto.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga has been convinced that the best he can do for himself is to deal with William Ruto before 2012. And he has been told that he can still get a sizeable amount of Kalenjin votes without Ruto’s help. Not the same overwhelming support of 2007 but at least 50 per cent of it. In other words some people are saying that the Kalenjin vote in the next general elections will be sharply divided.

Actually the game plan is to destroy Ruto politically before Ocampo gets to him so that there will be absolutely no fall out when he departs.

Handlers in both the Ruto and Raila camps have been behaving very strangely in recent times and this has led me to the conclusion that the whispers about Ruto defending himself at the Hague by incriminating Raila in the post election skirmishes may not be so far fetched after all. The truth is that the Kalenjin community had prepared months in advance for the violence. However Ruto handlers have plenty of evidence to suggest that the order to kill Kikuyus in the Rift Valley came from the highest authority in the ODM hierarchy. Remember the slogan; “No Raila no peace”? This fear amongst the prime Minister’s handlers is what led to Raila’s strong insistence that the perpetrators of the post-election violence be tried locally (including the king pins).

What are Raila’s chances of political survival assuming that he can clean house and deal with Ruto? Regular readers of this blog will know my view on that. While it is true that Raila Odinga can never be underestimated (you have to respect a man who came back from the gallows at Kamiti), my view is that Raila will never again wield the power and influence he wielded in the run up to the 2007 general elections which he actually won as every intelligent non-partisan Kenyan knows.

All in all this Raila/Ruto battle is not a small thing and neither is it a passing cloud. It is something that will be prominent in Kenya’s political landscape for as long as both men remain standing. Indeed it is the kind of battle that could create room for the emergence of a new third political force on the scene. But there is a big “if” there. And that is IF this war does not degenerate into chaos.

What Is the Truth About Separation of Executive Powers in the Harmonized Draft?

If one listens to most people talk about the recently released harmonised draft constitution, it is as if the word democracy is synonymous with the word elections. That is why you hear PNU talk about executive authority being exercised only by individuals who have been subject to direct voting by the voters themselves. More often than not, very few people who live in electoral democracies feel that elections result in a government which truly responds to their needs. At its best, electoral politics seems only to solve the problem of succession.

I find it much more useful to talk about democracy in terms of institutions and not events, personalities or individuals. This is precisely the trap Kenyans must evade falling into.

Under the harmonised draft, unlike the pre-NARA constitution law, there is clear-cut separation of powers between the President and the PM. The proposed checks and balances ensure that no single institution has been allowed the powers to operate as it wishes. The harmonised draft also presents a situation where all electoral players – winners and losers, majority and minority - end up playing a significant role in our governance.

The president will be head of State while the PM will be head of Government. The draft is neither a presidential nor a parliamentary system of government. It is a hybrid system and that which is said to be necessary for a highly polarised country like Kenya burdened with a host of national problems tracing their origin to the Office of the President. As Bw. Kitonga revealed, this harmonised draft responds to the needs of the Kenyan by creating a dignified, stately-cum-executive presidency (not president) with sufficient authority to oversee, unite and protect the country but without the baggage of the day-to-day running of government.

Previously, the President acted as both head of State and Head of Government, and had a wide range of powers, very few of which were either shared or checked. This is precisely what led to the feared term IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY. Political competition for this seat, where winner takes it all, is largely to blame for the deep ethnic divisions in Kenya.

Under the draft however, the President will now only act most times on the advise of the Prime Minister and the Cabinet and his decisions will have to be approved by Parliament. This should provide sufficient checks and balances and is perhaps one of the most significant clauses of the draft! Just imagine, no more cronyism, no more nepotism or blatant ethnicity in public appointments that the three previous heads of state were so notorious for.

The PM will only nominate cabinet ministers and other public officials for appointment by the President. In this case, the PM draws his authority in the process of nominating people to these public positions but with the approval of parliament! Parliament has gobbled up the powers of what used to be ‘serving at the pleasure/prerogative of the president’. The President remains the final authorised signatory of government decisions. Executive authority does not just imply the running of government.

Additionally, the President will retain all of the trappings and privileges of office: He or she will still live at State House, preside over national holiday functions and have a motorcade with outriders, and remain symbol of national unity. In other words rise above partisan politics that Kenyan presidents have become so notorious for.

The president will still be the Commander-in-Chief and Chairperson of the National Security Council, the President will also preside over passing out parades of security forces. With the approval of Parliament, he or she may sign treaties and international agreements. The president retains the power to declare a state of emergency or a war but again, only with the approval of parliament.

The President will now have the powers to dismiss judges of the superior courts and any other State or public officer whom the constitution requires the State President to appoint. However, he will only do this through the advice of bodies such as the Judicial Service Commission and Parliament.

The President will also have the powers to appoint high commissioners, ambassadors and consular representatives with the approval of the National Assembly. He or she will also receive foreign diplomatic and consular representatives.

The President also holds the power to pardon offenders through an advisory committee made up of the Attorney General, the minister in charge of prisons and five other members who do not hold public office.

The role of signing Bills into law also remains with the President under the new draft. He or she will also have the powers to direct the PM to ensure that any Act of Parliament is implemented.

If all this is not executive authority, then what is?

On the other hand, the harmonised draft requires the PM is appointed by the President. The PM is appointed on the basis of being the leader of the party with the highest representation in Parliament. He or she is not voted in by MPs as has been alleged in sections of the media. And this is where it gets interesting as MPs must approve his appointment as PM. Should they fail to do so, parliament will be required to nominate one of their own as prime minister within 60 days failure to which it will be dissolved and a general election called.

This is where in my opinion, some FINE TUNING need to be undertaken. The appointment of the PM, once he leads majority MPs in the national assembly, should not be subject to parliamentary approval. Neither should parliament be the one to nominate the next PM should the office fall vacant. This privilege should go to the party with the majority of MPs in the house. But that’s only my opinion as a Kenyan.

Back to the harmonised draft , the PM will exercise some executive authority as he or she will take over the current powers exercised by a president in the day-to-day running of government. The same draft requires that no cabinet decision can be implemented unless it has been signed by the PM.

The PM will have a primary role of directing and coordinating the work of ministries and preparing legislation, and is responsible to Parliament. The PM will preside over Cabinet meetings.

The PM is further required to promptly and consistently brief the President on the conduct of government affairs. This means the PM reports not just to parliament (as the body representing the people) but also to the president as head of State.

The powers of the PM will be constantly checked by Parliament because he or she can be sacked together with his entire Cabinet by a simple majority in parliament. If parliament passes a motion of no confidence in the PM, he or she and the ministers and deputy ministers will be required to resign. If they do not do so in seven days, the President will be required by law to dismiss them.

The PM will also advise the President on any dismissal of the deputy Prime Minister, a minister or a deputy minister. Parliament can also pass a vote of no confidence on a member of the Cabinet after which he will be required to resign within three days. In other words, it will not be left to the minister to await presidential action or speculate on the public mood so as to resign.

Clearly, anyone suggesting that the PM should also be subject to a direct vote is missing the point by a million miles. In a multi-party democracy like Kenya, it is perhaps even more a challenge emerging the leader of a party with the majority MPs than it is for one to get elected as president. As mentioned in the beginning of this post, democracy does not start and end with elections. The import of this requirement of nominating the PM is aimed at putting focus political parties and their policies and manifestos. In any case, voters who vote for MPs and political parties are the same voters who vote for presidents, therefore no one can really claim to enjoy mandate more than the other.

The harmonised draft gets even sweeter. It allows for the President to be impeached by Parliament through a motion approved by at least two thirds of all members of the National Assembly. However, the President remains in office until the Senate hears and determines the charges against him.

Now you can breath out, and proceed suggest your personal recommendations to the committee of experts on this contentious issue of the separation of powers plus any other you may have spotted.

Yes Two Tamed Centres of Power Can Hold

The unpleasant truth be told, the draft constitution will be passed or defeated on the singular issue of competing executive powers between the president and PM. Pretending otherwise is to live a national lie. All the other magnificent clauses will either fall in place or be buried together with the explosive executive power.

The real paradox lies in the hidden acknowledgement from CoEs that all our woes are traceable to imperial presidency while also creating a check in the office of the PM. Well, we know the king size egos of politicians and we only leave such an ambiguity to their so called well-meaning and statesmanship interpretations at our collective peril.

We know the tattered constitution owes its stench not from its print or spirit but wanton abuse by the previous three presidents. While Jomo betrayed all the basic tenets of nationalism at independence, Moi fitted smartly in his predecessor’s ruinous shoes to drive Kenya down the destructive slope. As for Kibaki his love for the nostalgic 1960s left him no time to measure up to Kenyans’ expectation of him following 2002 elections. But all that is water under the bridge.

The present political circumstances though self-inflicted offers us the best opportunity to reclaim Kenya and free ourselves from the evil grip of these selfish politicians. Granted the draft is not perfect, if not a lazy pretence at intellectualism that merely grafted the controversial executive clause to hitherto comprehensive Bomas and divisive Kilifi drafts.

American constitution is often quoted for posterity because while POTUS remains the most powerful person standing on planet earth, he is comprehensively checked by senate and other arms of government. We cannot afford the expensive luxury of leaving the ego of a president and a PM enslave and strangle Kenya forever.

The spirit of CoE’s draft lies in its latent acceptance that we are a nation exclusively led by competing tribal lords. Majority of Kenyans owe their loyalty first to their tribe and country second. The proposed regional governments are nothing but an academic nomenclature of that truism.

So are we ready for both an executive president and PM? Well, while the present proposal was singularly informed by the nasty experience of a suffocating presidency, we MUST tame competing egos with stringent laws that leaves the scoundrels no room to hold Kenya at ransom again, NEVER.

True, majority of Kenyans only read for exams in addition to text messages. But this time we must roll up our sleeves, open our eyes, read the draft and make our opinions count.

And who knows, we could trail blaze uncharted waters of governance. But while at it WATERTIGHT remains the key.

The Paradox of Devolution and Nationalism

Kenyans are poring into the draft constitution starting from the top. They have collectively identified the cancer of unchecked powers exclusively resident at State House which they want tamed. On the same frequency they abhor reserving the weighty task of choosing PM to selfish politicians.

The CoE would kill many birds with the same stone by amending that clause to indicate that the PM will be the leader of the party with majority MPs. That single provision will sound the death knell of briefcase parties while promoting policy-based parties. What is more, voters will vote with be priori knowledge of whom their prospective PM would be. That will minimize political wheeler dealing and arm twisting.

That said the prospect of two centres of power MUST be addressed if the present inertia and tension is to be eradicated. Instead of narrowing power sharing to two offices, the executive authority is better best executed from one office with empowered independent institutions as watchdogs. Independent institutions rather than gullible MPs are a safer bet to objectivity and continuity devoid of electoral tensions.

While Kenyans rightfully remain fixated to the proposed two centres of power, chapter two of the draft constitution is a study in paradox per excellence. First the chapter spells out devolution which captures the hitherto loathed majimbo in all but name.

With devolution come deserved superlatives like sovereignty of the people and supremacy of the constitution itself. The three layers of governance is just too costly for a poor country like Kenya. But again, the CoE must have been alive to our ethnic loyalties and regional disparities.

The draft declares that the governments at the various levels will be distinct and interdependent. Then comes the rider that the same governments must conduct their mutual relations on the basis of consultation and cooperation. That paradox must be clearly spelt out to avoid any regional conflicts that will inevitably impact on the national fabric.

Also chapter two of the draft hits a masterstroke by reducing national holidays to three: Madaraka, Mashujaa and Jamhuri days. Makes sense if only they would do away with the obsession to specific dates and instead opt for days of the week (e.g first Monday of June ....) to avoid disruption of economic activities.

But this structuring and reduction of holidays is a first step to kill deity and destructive sycophancy that saw previous presidents patent Kenya in their own names. Besides disabusing previous imperialists of personalized rule, this is a recognition of all who selfishly contributed in different ways to liberating Kenya.

In a nutshell, while all are tackling the draft head first, the document provides us with the best opportunity to RECLAIM Kenya for ourselves and the future generation. We must not allow the pettiness of the present politicians to take us back to MISRI. The first generation leaders failed big time to steer Kenya to her right heights and we are paying the painful consequences.

Let us seize this unique moment to retrace our steps and redefine the glorious Kenya for posterity. We owe it to ourselves and the future generation.

Draft Constitution: Good-Looking Juice Laced with Poison

By Guest Writer

Dear Committee of Experts (CoE),

First, let me commend the CoE for a job well done in coming up with a harmonized draft that is middle ground for advocates of presidential and parliamentary system of Government. However, in my view, the draft looks like a good-looking orange juice but laced with a dangerous poison.

I have gone through all sections of the draft and I like all, especially one on devolution. However, I have a borne of contention with the aspect of executive authority. Kenyans need to take a critical look at the executive authority aspect since this is the nerve centre of any nation. It is make or break of any country. My argument is this:

1. Kenyans wanted powers of president reduced but not transferred to another centre of power. What will stop the new centre of power from abusing power like happened under the imperial presidency? Executive authority should be shared with other institutions like Parliament and Judiciary and not shared amongst politicians.

2. Kenyans wanted to vote for the person to be the CEO of their country regardless of whether the person is a premier or a president.

3. Creating two centres of power – executive premiership and president – will create permanent tensions in Kenya due to power struggle between the competing forces. The lessons of Kibaki and Raila putting Kenya on permanent tension since the signing of the 2008 National Accord should have informed your decision. The same situation happens in Zimbabwe. The good thing is that the National Accord comes to an end with the expiry of Kibaki/Raila term. But the draft you came up with will become law, if Kenyans vote YES for it, and it will guide Kenyan generations for many years. Who will invest or visit as a tourist a country that is permanently gripped by tension arising from power struggles? Many tour operators and other business have suffered greatly after the 2007 disputed presidential polls. The National Accord was signed to bring peace and it achieved that. But the country has remained tensed due to bickering by politicians and the tourism and hotel industry has suffered heavily. The country’s economy is in limbo.

4. I do not know of any country in the world which has a hybrid system of Government like the one you propose. Why do you want Kenya to experiment a suicidal system of Government that is likely to lead Kenya to war and extinction?

5. I favour one centre of power, but weakened – either presidential or premiership. The current Constitution is abused because the presidency overrides everybody else and other institutions. The president makes any appointment and he imposes his personal views on the rest of Kenya. In the new constitutional order, I propose we can have a president or premier elected by Kenyans but have strong institutions for checks and balances like Parliament and the Judiciary. Like in US, the country’s CEO should not make unilateral appointments or major decisions. All appointments must be subject to Parliament approval and you must seal loopholes like the ones Kibaki exploited in re-appointing Ringera for an illegal second term. This will ensure the CEO doesn’t fill public offices with his cronies, tribesmen and women, friends and relatives. This has been the borne of contention with an imperial presidency. Another is sharing of Kenya’s resources and you have addressed it well in the devolution chapter.

6. A country’s CEO should derive his mandate from Kenyans and not MPs. Going by the history of our Parliament, a PM elected by MPs will be a hostage of the same people who elected him and not be accountable to Kenyans. If Kenyans have always opposed the election of mayors by councillors why do we want to do the same for a PM who will run Kenya and make major decisions affecting our lives? Mayoral candidates have for years been herding councillors to secret locations and held them like hostages so that they vote for the person who held them hostage. There has been a clamour for mayors to be elected directly by Kenyans. Why do we want to reverse the way we elect our country’s CEO? Do we want candidates to turn out be civic authorities? If mayors elected by a college of councillors have failed miserably, why do you want Kenyans to be ruled by proxy?

7. You propose stringent voting process for a president but a PM will be elected by MPs. Yet the PM will appoint Cabinet, chair Cabinet meetings and run the Government. Why should a president go through a rigorous campaign and voting process and end up performing duties that look purely ceremonial? The Government – composed of the Cabinet – is what makes major decisions on behalf of the electorate. Why should Kenyans go to vote for somebody whose work will be to the commander in chief of armed forces, receive foreign guests and other ceremonial duties? Yet the person who makes decisions that affect their lives will be elected by a caucus of MPs. Where is the logic and wisdom in this school of thought? What democracy is this?

8. Kenyans need one centre of power – whether premier or president – who will be accountable to them. As long as that CEO derives the mandate to rule from Kenyans, will never make appointments or major decisions unless ratified by other arms of Government, Kenya will remain a stable nation. Such a CEO will be the country’s symbol of unity and stability. Two centres of power is recipe for chaos and anarchy due endless power struggles.

9. A constitution is for posterity and not for short time fix to solutions. We can’t afford to risk with a trial and error constitution or gamble with our lives. The power games played out by Kibaki and Raila are a lesson to all. Who wants such kind of power games and tensions through out his/her lifetime? In Israel, the Government led by the PM collapses now and them. For them, they have resources to conduct new elections and attract investors. For our struggling economy and deeply tribal nation, an unstable Government will erode all the gains we have made since independence and make Kenya isolated by investors, donors and tourists. There is a saying that when two bulls fight, it’s the grass that suffers. When politicians engage in power struggles, ordinary folks will suffer. Let’s not rush to adopt what looks like a suicidal form of Government in our hurry to address an imperial presidency abused by Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki. There is no doubt the constitution making process is heavily influenced by Kibaki and Raila. Kenya is larger than Kibaki and Raila and it’ll be suicidal to form our thinking based on the two men. I would rather remain with the current Constitution than vote for one that will drive us into the grave a few years later.

10. The draft by CoE looks like it is tailored for certain politicians and political parties in mind. Kibaki and Raila and ODM and PNU should not form the basis of a new Constitution. Anyone who wants to rule Kenya should get our mandate. I care less who or what tribe the country’s CEO comes from - as long as he/she has a mandate of a majority of Kenyans to rule us and rules by the Constitution. CoE can make that happen by refining the draft to reflect that. In a true democracy, the losers concede defeat and agree to be ruled by the person who has won the majority vote. To ensure the winner doesn’t take all, you can borrow Rwanda example where the Opposition nominates people to Cabinet. The winner can take ¾ while the Opposition can take ¼. Why did Kenyans fight for multipartism? The remaining Opposition can keep the Government on its toes in Parliament.

11. I humbly appeal to CoE to cast their eyes 100 years ahead. Let’s make a Constitution for posterity and for future generations and not one to suit the power greed of certain politicians, tribes or selfish groups.

12. Lastly, I favour one Parliament since two chamber parliaments will be creating more jobs for MPs at tax payers’ expense. A constitution should not reward greedy politicians. A constitution should help govern a country and at the same time give key priority to those being ruled.

What I have against a new constitution

Guest post by Lucas Mboya

For some reason. We, Kenyans have believed...fallen for the hype that a new constitution is the panacea for the problems bedeviling our nation.

Much as I can see the need for change and a re-examination of our constitutional dispensation, I have a certain unease with a new constitution and the promises it offers. I do think that our real problems are far more related to the loss or erosion of our values than to poor legislation and outdated laws.

There is an inherent and very real danger about the way that we are approaching this issue.

African and indeed our traditional values, honesty, sincerity, hard work, generosity and more have been under attack by the advent of capitalism for the last 50 odd years. Constitutions worldwide have been adopted as the best way to ensure the proper functioning of a nation and or republic and the equitable distribution of resources as well as the inalienable freedoms of all people, the right to create wealth and many other checks and balances in a free society.

But try as I might I do not see how better legislation will improve our values. Values can only be instilled. They cannot be legislated. Legislation may be there to guard our collective values as a nation and can be improved and moulded over time to adapt with the fast changing pace of life....but can never be a substitute for an inherently good value system.

Japan is a wealthy country and one of the most ancient civilisations on earth with what would undoubtedly be one of the most diversified and vibrant economies on earth. We associate this country with good governance and all that comes with it. But I want to point out that despite laws being in place for the detection, and effective prosecution of crime and more so in this vein corruption, those implicated in the same often choose to take their lives.

This stems from a deep seated sense of justice in society ,such that one who has gone against the ‘moral code’ even in a moment of weakness finds more ‘honour’ in self inflicted death than the indignity of a public trial. I use the example of Japan because it also has in its constitution a official dynasty, in fact the very one that unchecked, 50 years ago, led to their involvement in the second world war and their subsequent ‘punishment’ by the USA being the only country to date to have seen the devastation of atomic bombs.

The point I am making is that it is very dangerous for us to put more reliance on a constitution, than on our own moral and ethical codes. Why limit ourselves to what is written in law. Shouldn’t we have in all of us our own ‘law’ that has a higher bearing on how we live than a written code?

What did Jesus tell the Pharisees when they accused his disciples of ‘working’ by ‘harvesting’ on the Sabbath day when they ate grains of wheat from the fields as they walked. Laws are made for man not man for laws. Let the overriding law be that in our own values rather than a constitution. It’s safer that way. A constitution or law should never be superior to your own value system. They should work in tandem to create a cohesive society. But your own values come first.

More so. In trying to find the ‘perfect’ legislative environment we run the greatest danger of alienating ourselves community from community, region from region than ever before.

Comments attributed to a number of Mp’s recently show what a deep seated problem we have. Some from both Rift Valley and Central province (not limited to) have openly said the next president should be from their communities/regions. With what has so recently put us at each other’s throats and a new constitution in the offering which advocates albeit in a ‘sober’ tone, the much discredited ‘majimbo’ system, are we not as Kenyans putting the cart before the horse?

Doubtless some will argue that a new constitution guarantees the equitable distribution of resources so it’s a prerequisite to the next election but who and what guarantees our morality? Laws have been broken before and will again.

Additionally we have complained that the current coalition is bloated and a drain on public resources. Pray what then is this new Constitution? Have we honestly looked at how multi layered it is and considered the cost of implementation of the required changes to our governance. More important to me though, is that while our priority right now should be how we can become more cohesive as a nation and rediscover our sense of patriotism from which possibly the seeds of a better value system may be sown, we are busy discussing a document that will undoubtedly divide us more along ethnic and community lines than ever before.

While I agree that changes and reform are necessary I would much rather an incremental change (amendments) to our current constitution that would allow us to go to an election as a unified nation and continue with the process of constitutional reform and or change after that point. Not to mention the fact that a referendum is still an option that would put more strain on our national psyche than we can now bear.

We have yet to identify and try the masterminds of the post election violence which will open up old wounds, the TJRC is supposedly underway, more and older wounds, a referendum possible, new constitution, then an election in 3 years time. Isn’t this too much to bite, chew and swallow at one go considering that in 2012 most of these will still be underway?

Rather than try to enter a long treatise for which in neither qualified nor inclined. I urge my fellow Kenyans, citizens to examine, not the new constitution but our own society and ask whether legislation can bring about or indeed is the appropriate tool, to bring us to the point of a new moral and ethical awakening which is the only sure way our guaranteeing the future of this nation.

As for me my view is that this effort is too little too late. I do not think it is the answer to our problems.

All things considered. I respect the fact that many will disagree with my position. Time will tell.

The writer of this post, Lucas Mboya is the son of the late Tom Mboya.

The Kibaki succession: The whispered reason for the great interest in the powers of the PM and President

There are things you can hear whispered around inner political circles that are easy to dismiss as nonsense. Like this persistent rumour I have been hearing.

I have realized that too many times “nonsense” and propaganda turns out to be true. Let me remind you folks of a deadly mistake many Kenyans made in the run up to the 2007 general elections. The story started with political columnist Mutahi Ngunyi warning in 2005 that he did not believe that Mwai Kibaki was capable of handing over power peacefully. Then as the elections rapidly approached there was talk that the president’s men were planning massive rigging to keep him in power at all costs. Many people dismissed this as pure nonsense. How could the gentleman golf-playing former don of Makerere University do such a thing? That had to be pure propaganda by ODM fanatics.

This view persisted even when evidence started cropping up all over the place. The most memorable for me was when an angry Musikari Kombo told his constituents in an unguarded moment; “you are wasting your time. The outcome will not be what you think.” I still hear his voice and shudder at those words.

Well we all know what happened next. Mwai Kibaki will go down in history as the president who brought the country to the brink of total disintegration. The mess caused by the honorable member for Othaya will take at least a century to heal—maybe more.

But now other whispers have started emerging.

The story this time sounds like pure fiction. The first time I heard it, I laughed loudly and dismissed it. But it has persisted and now I have started taking it seriously. I have to admit that the motive is there (that is the first thing you look for in a murder and in politics too).

It is whispered that Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki have made a deal concerning the Kibaki succession. Bearing in mind past experiences, there are some kind of irrevocable guarantees that both sides have made to each other.

There are some interesting things that have happened that seem to confirm this. Top on my list is the behaviour of one Kalonzo Musyoka at around the time I am told this deal was sealed. The Vice president was suddenly eagerly talking about 2012 and the alliances he had in place. It seemed that the statement (which angered many Kenyans) came out of the blue. However those who know the VP better will know that he is the kind of politician who always reacts and hardly ever initiates anything. What triggered the VP to suddenly start talking about 2012? Was it this deal that had just been concluded between the president and PM? Was this his move on the political chess board in an attempt to remain relevant?

But even as we seek answers to those questions, what is the essence of this deal?

The idea is that Mwai Kibaki will not retire from politics in 2012. Instead he will leave the presidency but defend his Othaya seat. He will then support Raila Odinga for the presidency and Raila will support Kibaki for the premiership. The rationale here is that the political class has a lot to lose if things go wrong in 2012 and so it is a choice between sticking together or hanging separately.

I promptly stopped laughing at this theory when I read the screaming newspaper headlines about the last hurdle to a new constitution being the division of powers between the PM and the presidency which will be ironed out by the two principals. What is not public yet are the hurdles that have been put in place to block the possibility of any pumbavu ever rising to the presidency. What the political class wants is to retain as much control as possible over what will happen in 2012.

The whole problem about this new Kanstitution (as the late Kijana Wamalwa used to call it) is that it is being put together not for posterity as it should but for the benefit of the current political class. If these guys had their way the clause for the presidency would read something like this; the president must either have a gap between his front teeth or be a pot belied golf playing former don of a well-known university. The presidency may (with consultation between the two types stated) descend to some soccer loving MP who represents a Nairobi constituency, but only with assurances that he will not be controlled by a pumbavu public that cannot be trusted to make wise decisions for the country.

Cabinet ministers and their famous girlfriends

I think we should start with the drama that unfolded on Koinange street a few years ago where prominent cabinet ministers were caught red-handed and almost literally with their pants down breaking the law by picking up girls who were under 18 years of age.

Cabinet minister Soita Shitanda

The really disgusting thing here is that these honorable cabinet ministers already had both wives and mipango mingi ya kando (several mistresses). All these were apparently not enough and the men who could be president wanted some really young girls. Chirau Mwakwere and Mwangi Kiunjuri were the folks caught with their fingers in the cookie pie.

While we know that older men really get turned on when they can make a much younger girl squeal in delight between the sheets (thanks partly to Viagra and Cialis wonder pills but mostly to some pretty good acting from young girls who know how not to get forgotten by a man) the Koinange street saga left many naive Kenyans in deep shock. Have you ever wondered why those burly old members of parliament swagger in pride the way they do in parliament looking pretty invincible?

But this game did not start recently, it actually started a long time ago. It seems that the August house and being a matatu tout have something in common. And that is innocent well behaved shy men always seem to turn into womanizing demons the minute they enter both occupations. Touts can’t help it because young girls throw themselves at them with abandon, is the same true with politicians? You tell me.

Cabinet Minister Charity Ngilu

I was talking about the early days. There was this cabinet minister called Paul Ngei (now deceased) who never saw anything in skirts that he did not want horizontal on his bed right away. In fact the good late minister got into trouble pretty early when he seduced a Mzungu girl. Unfortunately in those days it was a criminal offence to sleep with a white woman (even if she was your wife and that is why Arwings Khodek a prominent Kenyan lawyer on returning to Kenya with his British wife whom he married in London was almost arrested at the airport. Being the good learned friend he was he presented he proved that English law superseded the law in any colony that belonged to her majesty). Mr Ngei’s circumstances were vastly different and he thus got into a lot of trouble. However the biggest problem for Mr Ngei came long after independence via a strikingly sexy beauty from Meru that he fell for. The woman happened to be the daughter of a cabinet colleague of his called Jackson Angaine. The girl was also in the military and had a serious boyfriend there (some major whose name I forget, was it Kisilu?). The major discovered that he was not the only man making love to Miss Angaine and one day in the mid 70s, she was found dead in the bath tub of her Nairobi home when Mr Ngei had visited earlier that day. The major was charged with her murder but was acquitted due to lack of enough evidence. Kambas swear that the man went to see the right witch doctor otherwise he would have been cooked. Other observers like myself noted that he had hired this old Kenyan-Jewish lawyer called Byron Georgadis who never lost a case. In law there is something called “beyond any reasonable doubt” so all a good defence lawyer has to do is to create enough doubt which Georgadis was a master at doing. Interestingly the mystery of who killed the Meru beauty by strangling her has never been solved to date.

This post would not be complete without mentioning the name of one Thomas Joseph Mboya. During his short but very eventful political career he rose to the cabinet as Minister of Labour, Justice and finally economic planning. A real lady’s man, women found him irresistible and he had many girlfriends all over the world.

But let’s get to the present and why not start with current housing minister and MP for Malava, Soita Shitanda. Names may mean nothing but if you remove the “Sh” from the beginning of the minister’s second name and replace it with a “K” you may just change your mind. The ministers’ hot escapades with a Kamba sex goddess have recently ended up in court where she is demanding cash for the upkeep of the twins who were the result of the relationship that was ended by Ms Nduku’s request for a serious amount of cash as maintenance for herself and her children. Read story on court case HERE.

Remember the agriculture minister in the last government called Kipruto Kirwa? Up to only a few months ago he had a passionate affair with this woman in the media who also happens to be married t6o somebody else. She too hails from the same tribe as Ms Nduku. This lady is really famous but not for her unusual extra-curricular activities—at least not yet.

In this day and age of gender equality we should end this post with a case of a woman cabinet minister’s famous boyfriend. This is the story of one of the hottest lady cabinet ministers in the history of Kenya, Charity Kaluki Ngilu. To date she has not denied a story carried by the Weekly Citizen about being caught in a sex-in-the-car escapade with well known former publisher Philip Gacoka at the Nairobi Gymkhana car park. Rumours have been flying for a long time that the two have been extremely good friends. What amazes me is how a 57 year old woman manages to look so good so much so that much younger men can’t keep their hands off her.

What are the real priorities for Kibaki and Raila?

Another recent post by Chris that you may have missed

How do you tell that somebody is a good manager?

It is easy to get fooled by a incompetent or lazy manager who just wants to cover their tracks and so I usually look at only one thing. That manager’s priority list. Actually this list can tell you a lot. For instance if you notice that the manager places a lot of emphasis on making sure that suppliers are paid on time and this is at the top of his priority list, what will that tell you? Unless there has been a crisis with suppliers at the company recently, this will suggest that you have a corrupt manager who is making money for himself off the company suppliers. Folks the priority list will tell you plenty, like where the real interest of an individual are.

Now let us carefully examine the priority list of the government of Kenya in recent times.

When faced with the choice of settling IDPs or going ahead with the national census the government’s choice was clear. Of course a national census is important but what harm would there have been to postpone it for even a year or two? And then some questions on that census questionnaire that the government insisted on keeping were a dead give away. Like the one about tribe. To me this is evidence that the jokers we call our leaders are already doing their tribal arithmetic for 2012 and it was very important to get the latest tribal figures. IDPs kitu gani.. SHAME SHAME.

How do you get consensus in government for something like the draft constitution? It is very simple. A meeting between four individuals; Kibaki, Raila, Uhuru and Ruto followed by other meetings between those individuals and their hecklers (oops I meant party members or supporters) would be the most effective way of doing it. Instead the government decides to spend a fortune gathering the entire cabinet (plus assistant ministers) in Mombasa for what is really a holiday at the taxpayers expense. The guys have even invited teambuilding experts (what will these experts tell warlords? This is really funny). Anyway let us wait and see what comes out of it.

And there are hundreds of other examples that would take as many posts and so let me end this by asking a few simple questions.

- What were the priorities of the first Kibaki administration when he took power in 2002? (Just to jog your memory; remember the 500,000 new jobs a year saga? Actually it was quickly changed to 500,000-jobs-a-year-just-make-sure-you-can-justify-the-figures.

- What are the priorities of the current grand coalition government? Hint: Free holidays and trips abroad at the expense of the taxpayer are very high on the list all that needs to be done is to find a good excuse.

- Priorities are what presidents and administrations are remembered for. What is Kibaki’s legacy? What will the bloated-strain-on-the-tax-payer grand coalition government be best remembered for?

- As a powerful Prime Minister and partner in the grand Coalition government what are the priorities of Raila Odinga?

Breaking News: Kumekucha Chris is back in a big way and is currently preparing a hot post for your enjoyment this weekend. The working title for that post is: Cabinet ministers and their famous girlfriends. Look out for it very soon.