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Sunday, November 15, 2009

The Kibaki succession: The whispered reason for the great interest in the powers of the PM and President

There are things you can hear whispered around inner political circles that are easy to dismiss as nonsense. Like this persistent rumour I have been hearing.

I have realized that too many times “nonsense” and propaganda turns out to be true. Let me remind you folks of a deadly mistake many Kenyans made in the run up to the 2007 general elections. The story started with political columnist Mutahi Ngunyi warning in 2005 that he did not believe that Mwai Kibaki was capable of handing over power peacefully. Then as the elections rapidly approached there was talk that the president’s men were planning massive rigging to keep him in power at all costs. Many people dismissed this as pure nonsense. How could the gentleman golf-playing former don of Makerere University do such a thing? That had to be pure propaganda by ODM fanatics.

This view persisted even when evidence started cropping up all over the place. The most memorable for me was when an angry Musikari Kombo told his constituents in an unguarded moment; “you are wasting your time. The outcome will not be what you think.” I still hear his voice and shudder at those words.

Well we all know what happened next. Mwai Kibaki will go down in history as the president who brought the country to the brink of total disintegration. The mess caused by the honorable member for Othaya will take at least a century to heal—maybe more.

But now other whispers have started emerging.

The story this time sounds like pure fiction. The first time I heard it, I laughed loudly and dismissed it. But it has persisted and now I have started taking it seriously. I have to admit that the motive is there (that is the first thing you look for in a murder and in politics too).

It is whispered that Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki have made a deal concerning the Kibaki succession. Bearing in mind past experiences, there are some kind of irrevocable guarantees that both sides have made to each other.

There are some interesting things that have happened that seem to confirm this. Top on my list is the behaviour of one Kalonzo Musyoka at around the time I am told this deal was sealed. The Vice president was suddenly eagerly talking about 2012 and the alliances he had in place. It seemed that the statement (which angered many Kenyans) came out of the blue. However those who know the VP better will know that he is the kind of politician who always reacts and hardly ever initiates anything. What triggered the VP to suddenly start talking about 2012? Was it this deal that had just been concluded between the president and PM? Was this his move on the political chess board in an attempt to remain relevant?

But even as we seek answers to those questions, what is the essence of this deal?

The idea is that Mwai Kibaki will not retire from politics in 2012. Instead he will leave the presidency but defend his Othaya seat. He will then support Raila Odinga for the presidency and Raila will support Kibaki for the premiership. The rationale here is that the political class has a lot to lose if things go wrong in 2012 and so it is a choice between sticking together or hanging separately.

I promptly stopped laughing at this theory when I read the screaming newspaper headlines about the last hurdle to a new constitution being the division of powers between the PM and the presidency which will be ironed out by the two principals. What is not public yet are the hurdles that have been put in place to block the possibility of any pumbavu ever rising to the presidency. What the political class wants is to retain as much control as possible over what will happen in 2012.

The whole problem about this new Kanstitution (as the late Kijana Wamalwa used to call it) is that it is being put together not for posterity as it should but for the benefit of the current political class. If these guys had their way the clause for the presidency would read something like this; the president must either have a gap between his front teeth or be a pot belied golf playing former don of a well-known university. The presidency may (with consultation between the two types stated) descend to some soccer loving MP who represents a Nairobi constituency, but only with assurances that he will not be controlled by a pumbavu public that cannot be trusted to make wise decisions for the country.


Anonymous said...

Chris in an attempt to divert dwidling traffic back to Kumekucha after a botched Sex story that refused to sell over the weekend wrote this;

Mwai Kibaki will go down in history as the president who brought the country to the brink of total disintegration. The mess caused by the honorable member for Othaya will take at least a century to heal—maybe more.

Some statements like this makes few of us who have been around for a while think Chris is suffering from a case of chronic dementia. So are we to reward Moi with a nobel peace price for being the best president of Kenya?
What about Raila who after suffering defeat at the polls which was rigged both ways (those who fail to mention this think that repeating a lie many times makes it a truth. Truth never mutates. Ask Taabu) unleashed thugs to loot, kill, rape and carry out Kikuyu genocide that Ocampo is investigating?

Kikuyu bashing is what made Kumekucha 'Tick' but unlike in 2007, Kenyans are wiser and this will not turn around the failing fortunes of Kumekucha. One thing i agree with you is that Raila will go to any lengths to sleep in state house. Well, if wishes were horses!!

Kumekucha Prefect.

Anonymous said...

From Confidential sources to Ghost Whispers...

Chris has really lost it!!!

Mwarang'ethe said...

Bwana Chris,

The problem with you and Kenyans in general is a total failure to appreciate, the intellectual/philosophical ideas that have been used to construct the miserable world we are in. The social world after all, is nothing but, an intellectual construction.

As a result, we have completely failed to deconstruct the governance problem to the BASIC PHILOSOPHICAL IDEAS that are the TRUE CAUSE of our miseries. Thus, we cannot get it right.

For instance, right now, we are concerned with PM and President sijui powers. Rubbish, we argue.

From where we stand, there are three issues (4 if we include international trade) that should be occupying Kenyans. These are:

(a) Land monopoly.
(b) Money monopoly.
(c) Media monopoly.
(d) Technology monopoly - we can leave this for now, for Kenya lacks any technology to speak of.

As concerns land, Kenyans should be demanding the following lines as the OPENING lines of the new constitution:

EVERY Kenyan/man has a birthright (inalienable and indefeasible) to an EQUAL share of the soil in its original state. This is a maxim of NATURAL LAW.

It is equally a maxim of NATURAL LAW that, every one, by whose LABOUR any portion of the soil has been rendered more fertile, has a right to the additional produce of that fertility or the value thereof.

On the FIRST maxim, depends the FREEDOM and PROSPERITY of the common people.

On the SECOND, depends the perfection/improvement of the common stock and wealth of a community/nation.

NB: Note that, your FREEDOM and PROSPERITY does not depend on PM vs President's powers, but, on the first maxim. And, wealth creation depends on the second.

States as constituted today, flout these natural law maxims, and the results are there for all with eyes to see.

However, Kenyans are too blind to see this. Woe unto you and good luck. We again inquire, don't we have Plato or Solon etc these days?

Anonymous said...

Democracy has really caused lack of respect to the presidency in Kenya. I cannot believe we can just talk about our president in a very rude tone. Common even if we are airing our views, lets respect the presidency.

Anonymous said...

In 2002, we had Moi coniving with Uhuru. Let Raila and Kibaki coniveas much as they want, but they should not forget that wembe ni ule ule.

Anonymous said...

I am not as worried by the negative ethnicity of this blog as by its lack of any meaningful and useful content. What ever happpned???? It feels pretty much like any of the dailies (which we very well know are greatly influenced by the state). @Mwarang'ethe, I am a keen enthusiast of your posts/comments...anywahere I can more content by you? in the blogosphere may be?

Anonymous said...


Do you have a blog that you manage so that we visit and tap on your great wisdom??

The future is with men and women who think outside the box. Kumekucha was good in the past but i feel it has outlived its importance.

kindly respond.


I know that everything is pretty possible in this country but somethings are unimaginable. Such an arrangement could only serve our country worse than better.
I think for now let us wait and see how the wind is blowing. My professors of Political Science told me never to dismiss any rumour in politics because if anything politics is about rumour mongering and installation of perception in people's minds before you finally hit home.

Anonymous said...

Thankyou Mwarangethe for this,

"The problem with you and Kenyans in general is a total failure to appreciate, the intellectual/philosophical ideas that have been used to construct the miserable world we are in. The social world after all, is nothing but, an intellectual construction "

It's blind sheep leading other blind sheep. And when you tell them to think outside the box they start telling you that you are been intellectual as a form of insult. Still keeping the tradition of trial and error still you get it right forgettting the tools you have to make the right decision upfront. While at the time still making more miserable lifes, just in the name of keeping tall egos.

Anonymous said...

Raila, like a dog that eats its babies, is munching on the Kalenjins who voted for him on condition that they would not be moved out of the Mau when Raila got into govt. Now, the Kalenjins are sleeping on roadsides, courtesy of Raila's machinations. Na mambo bado.

Anonymous said...

Ruto yesterday declared that Kibaki won in 2007 after all.

What do th ODMorons have to say to this?

kumekucha said...

The question I keep asking and can't seem to get an answer for is simple;

Why keep visiting a blog whose fortunes are dwindling? Why not move elsewhere and stop wasting your precious time visiting this blog to state the obvious (at least in ur eyes)?

Fortunately this is NOT a mystery to me. I know exactly what is going on. BUT please explain to the other readers coz this is the web and ur actions (if ur comments are to be believed) defy logic.


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...


If there is indeed such a plan, what is wrong with it. The guys have found a way of 'looking' after their affairs.

You and me...we havent. We will sing, dance and ululate at their creativity....since it will be our time to eat.

Anonymous said...

Yes, I was amused by what kalenjin leaders said over the weekend. Ati Raila never won! so what were they fighting for?

Chris you dont know what you are talking about. Kalonzo is not concerned about kibaki and raila. He is concerned about uhuru and ruto, both of whom have now unequivacaly stated they will run for president (current constitution). You need to look at the kk thing more closely. It is real. But it will be implemented after the election. In a scenario where ruto runs, uhuru will definitely win and ruto will be second and will be vp. The only way kalonzo can be president is by convincing both uhuru and ruto to back him. But from the way things look, it aint gonna happen. As for raila, he has to retire with kibs because kalenjins will definitely not vote for him and without them he cant make any serious bid. So the "project" thing looks like it will work this time round.

M-Pesa said...

I hear Jimmy the douche bag wants to be the PM to safeguard his dad's many valuable assets. Mummy's boy Jimmy has been holding night meetings with Agwambo to see of what use he can be in consolidating the GEMA vote. Ignore the douche bag at your own peril!

Mwarang'ethe said...

Anonymous wrote

As for raila, he has to retire with kibs because kalenjins will definitely not vote for him and without them he cant make any serious bid. So the "project" thing looks like it will work this time round.

Our views:

A Spartan mother had five sons with the army. A Helot arrived; trembling she asked his news. “Your five sons are slain.” “Vile slave, was that what I asked thee?” “We have won the victory.” She hastened to the temple to render thanks to the gods.

When we dwell on the "victory of our tribes," are we not behaving just like this woman from Sparta?

Phil said...


I predicted this alliance of the principals one and half years ago. I am glad you can now see similar picture emerging.

A lot of water has passed under the bridge. What makes the Kibaki succession an even more mouth watering political affair, is the on-going implementation of AGENDA4.

The principals have disagreed on a few occasions (like who should occupy the Leader of Government Business in parliament) but they have agreed on many other issues.

For instance, Kibaki launched Raila's colourful strategic plan for office of the Prime Minister, the only one released in the blotted cabinet so far.

Kibaki also made a highly successful visit to Raila's Bondo home. Remember last year, no one wanted to hear Kibaki's name in Nyanza.

More importantly, the principals seems to be reading from the same script regarding the looming ICC indictments. There will be highly visible fallouts in both PNU and ODM, but Ocampo will be doing us a great service mopping up the warlords from democracy loving Kenyans like your trully.

I will not be surprised if chants of Raila tosha emanate from the slopes sometime next year. Unlike 10 years ago, Raila is now an internationally respected statesman and panafricanist. Afterall, he appears to me the likeliest to deliver a new constitution.

Anonymous said...

Ngai! Phil still worship Raila??!!
The wonders of this world never cease to amaze me!

Anonymous said...

@1:00 am

You seem to be the blind one among kenyans. There is nothing new in what you have just pasted (yes pasted!), besides regurgitating views from several blogs?

What became of originality? Why are some people so addicted to regurgitating other people's views 24/7?

Anonymous said...

this how it will be 2012.Raila,kibaki &Jimmy and Uhuru,Ruto,and kalonzo.
Uhuru will be our next Preso.
Raila opposition amen or home detention and castro will flee to cuba.

Anonymous said...

will the list of the "tribal lords" waiting to be prosecuted at the hague change the equation in 2012?

that is if it is released in ther early part of 2010?

how sweet will it be to have the suspected "tribal lords" and their tribal subodinates be whisked away before november of 2010.

will the already decaying land of kenya be better off dead without kibaki, raila, uhuru, ruto, half of the current parliamentarians and some of the other sickening political ratpins once the the wheels of justice at the hague begin to spin and met out the much awaited justice?

Anonymous said...

Guys, so long as we have an independent credible election monitoring body and an allowance that diaspora Kenyans can vote, the outcome of the vote will shock many. If we see Kibs still vying for his seat then we will know something is in the offing and we need to act fast.

deroo said...


These are stories and dreamt-up falacies that the ODMers want people to believe that there is a pact between Kibaki and Raila. The pact, whether there or not, is not binding and never will.

In one of my posts that was spiked by the self-appointed REGULATORS of the blog (It was non offensive), i said that the whole thing will depend on what happens in Bondo when Kibaki visited that place.

Incidentally, the bedrock of the Odinga Dictatorial Movement, the Kaloes, did not accept anything about the move and the mass movement has not been the same since. If you reflect the whole political scenario, it was the first time that they openly disagreed and since then, the veneered sanity that was in ODM, albeit dictatorial, waned.

It is abit amatuerish and nondescript so to say, that people can talk of a power-handing process and yet thos who voted to a man for the god of politics are shedding tears by the roadside and the others (labeled unwisely 'adui') are still buying building materials for their houses.

This talk, should be treated with the contempt it deserves, an ODM rumour and look at the bigger picture. That is, the vote in Kenya will be determined along tribal lines and Kibaki, in his laid back fashion, will never, at all, endorse Raila publicly. NEVER.

It will expose him to an alteraction never seen before and those who hate him in the larger Kikuyu (read Muranga and Kiambu) will offer a backlash never seen.

Still, dont dismiss a fact that he never campaigned publicly for any of the PNU affiliates, in the fear of a backlash that whipped some of his closest allies.

To be honest with you, sad as it is and simply accept it, Raila Odinga will not win it. Just live with it, the same way that the corronation in Uhuru Park never materialised and the Executive Powers mirage never came to be.

He will not! Simple


Anonymous said...

I like the gist of the article except when reference is made to "honorable" Kibaki.

Quite frankly, one can not be an election thief and honorable in the same breath.

kim said...

Chris sasa nini hii. Dont collect bar talk and come and paste it here. Chris, i respect you for your impatiality and lack of tibal partisan like the Juvenile Taabu but hapa leo umeanguka mtihani. I give you an F for the poor Job done.

Anonymous said...


You are guilty of the same thing you accuse others of. Why assume am either a kikuyu or kalenjin by talking about kk. It seems increasingly clear that both the kikuyu and the kalenjin will sponsor a presidential candidate. The rallies going on in centro and rv are saying as much. kk is designed to be implented after the election in which it is expected uhuru will be first and ruto second. Kenya's politics is so easy to read.

Philip said...

I'll be the happiest man to find out what people gain by supporting their tribal leaders.

But how do you remove Kenya from tribalism when even my age-mates aged between 25-35 strongly believe that the best spouse is one coming from their tribe? That's how deep tribalism is entrenched in our society.

Upto now Derek has never explained to me why he hates Raila so much, and I've also not understood why Taabu never brought any negative posts about Raila.

I know deep within, most Kenyans don't like their tribal leaders however they cannot stand being led by someone from another tribe. That's why I'll not be surprised if the likes of Uhuru and Ruto receive overwhelming votes from fellow tribesmen. Don't forget Raila and Kalonzo.

Succession politics is real but to what benefit to Kenyans?

Recently I've been looking at the way Raila behaves and everytime I see him I see that he's no longer the man I used to support. Even if it's all about political survival was there a better way that he could survive other than appointing his brother as assistant minister for finance and his sister as US bla bla? If I say there was no other way then what I'm doing is condoning the actions of Moi and Kibaki which nearly led the country to brink of collapse. These two actions by the guy shows the kind of guy that the man can be when he takes the executive leadership.

The reality according to me is that at the moment Kenya doesn't have any good leader with ambitions for presidency, though Raila may be better than Ruto and Uhuru. How I wish a good leader will come up.

Anonymous said...

Phillip, i like your straight forwardness. Its also good that someone other than chris thinks Raila has lost his edge.
However, why did you compare Raila with UK and Ruto? Kalonzo beats Raila hands down when it comes to being clean. He is the only politician without blemish and i am no Kamba.

Kalonzo for President, Away with Inheritance of Power from Fathers, Away with Corruption and Nepotism that Raila has excelled in.

Anonymous said...

You have no idea what Kalonzo is....

Anonymous said...

The amount of traffic should not be used as the sole determinannt of the popularity of this any site. For all we care, it could be popular for all the wrong reasons!!!.....and by the way, some admins of this blog seem to be oblivious of the intellect of the average visitor of this blog. All I know is that, I am more cynical about Kumekucha's articles/agendas that I was 1 year ago....

Philip said...

Anon @ 11.51P.M

When it comes to Kalonzo we'll first of all need to define what is morals and rank these morals.

Yes, recently the guy has never been implicated in any wrong issues in the government, however several things clear and most know about Kalonzo are: The guy is extremely selfish on both personal and national level. Please find out what the guy did when Kamba were dying of hunger and tell me.

It's commonly known, but not verified, that Kalonzo has negleted close family members - one of his sister stays at Mukuru wa Njenga slums.

I personally know that the guy is an elite who'll want to prove to everyone. He rarely interacts with people he views as "common wananchis."

During my time in Kamba region I was told that the guy is very jealous to the extent that he doesn't feel well when a Kamba rises. That he has denied several people an opportunity for education because of this fear - that's exactly what Biwott was doing to "his people" in Kaptagat. I'm using the term "his people" because that's how these politician view us - like they own us and not us owning them.

Kalonzo generally is a pretender in front of the media but selfish, jealous and proud behind the media.

I have friends who can call Ruto any time, so do I have friends who can call Raila anytime, and having personal interaction with this two guys can really change your perception of them. My friend once interacted with Moi - imagine in the morning in state lodge Moi could come to see them in vest and short and find out how they are doing, he could chat with them like age-mates - that concern from baba na mama made my friend to like Moi to date. That's something you don't get from Kalonzo. I can bet that it can be easy to get access to Raila and Ruto than to Kalonzo.

So my lack of support for the guy is based on his personal life rather than how you view the guy in the media. I sometimes think that the guy can be worse than Ruto and Uhuru.

Kalonzo is still those classical leaders who may even not want anybody in Kenya to have a better vehicle than his.

Anonymous said...


That description you gve of Kalonzo could very well fit raila. Especially the part about discouraging any other form of leadership to arise from his own home area. tell us tinga's record in that? the thug attacks on orengo and Nyongo when they dared have adifferent opinion to tinga?


As for dicttorial and selfish tendancies, I will let you read of fellow pentagon members Balala and ruto have to say about raila.

kalonzo is winning and ODM is falling apart. Some people are going to the hague and others wil spend the rest of their lives regretting the thousands of kenyans they killed in 1982 and 2008 in their failed attempt to get to SH

This uvumi about Kalonzo is utter rubbish.

Anonymous said...

Again, you have no idea. Challenge Philip. Do some research. The obvious place to start is Mwingi....ask any passerby to compare and contrast Kalonzo vs Musila....

Kimi Raikkonen said...

Unfortunately for your daft theories, Kibaki does not control Kikuyu or GEMA votes so he cannot herd them to Raila. Let me tell you what is going to happen. Ruto will take over UDM which will become the Kalenjin party. Uhuru will defeat Gideon Moi in January KANU elections and retain the Chairmanship. Uhuru will then consolidate GEMA votes under KANU which was originally GEMA anyway, and then negotiate a pre and post election pact with Ruto to share power in a UDM/KANU coalition aka KK alliance. First order of business will be to scuttle the current NARA Govt so as to have new elections under the new constitution by instigating a vote of no-confidence against Raila as PM and sending him home. Now that sounds more realistic don't you think?

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