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Tuesday, September 18, 2007

The Elusive Fourth Province For Mwai Kibaki’s Re-election

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President Kibaki is on the campaign trail and once again he is in Western Kenya, actually for the second time in less than a month. So what is it about western province? Why does the president seem to emphasize so much on Western province in his re-election bid?.

Emerging evidence seems to suggest that some recent critical figures obtained from a very recent poll have been deliberately kept out of the public domain. Those figures, it is believed show for the first time, Raila Odinga neck to neck with president Kibaki. There are even those who claim that Raila Odinga is in fact slightly ahead. Kumekucha cannot verify this information for sure at this time. But what I can verify is that the president’s camp is a little anxious about their candidate’s estimated numbers just now.
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President Moi is no longer a young man he once was (left) but the saddest thing is that just when President Kibaki has placed a lot of faith in the former president helping him to get back to State House, there are a number of things that are visibly wrong with Moi. His judgment is NOT what it used to be, for instance. President Kibaki will pay a very high price, just wait and see. (Read Full story NOW)
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Because of those numbers, President Kibaki’s handlers see western province as a key campaign area. They see it as the incumbents’ badly needed fourth province. It is already clear that Kibaki will have a strong showing in 3 provinces where he will easily garner over 45 per cent of the vote. Namely Central, Nairobi and Eastern. Although there are those who argue that Nairobi is cosmopolitan enough to give Kenya’s 3rd president a nasty surprise. Personally I don’t see that happening just yet.

The president’s main challenger, Raila Odinga is looking stronger by the day. Latest estimates show the son of Jaramogi easily capturing a minimum of 45 per cent of the votes in Rift valley, Western, Coast, Nairobi and North Eastern province although the latter with about 200,000 votes in the whole province is only useful in helping a candidate get the mandatory minimum of 25 per cent in 5 provinces required for a presidential candidate to be declared duly elected. Let us not talk about Nyanza for now because Luo Nyanza will vote for Raila almost to a man and the rest of Nyanza has “smelt blood” and seem to be positioning themselves...

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Has Mwai Kibaki Ever Run A Successful Presidential Campaign?

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That is the question that was posed to Kumekucha this afternoon and I had no option but to answer in the negative. The person posing this philosophical question was trying to answer the nagging question I have been repeatedly posing here. Namely who is the president’s strategist in chief and what are their political credentials? For sure going to Makerere University is one thing, and being streetwise enough to spin a campaign of this magnitude is quite another.

For those who think that the president run a successful campaign in 2002, let me remind you that after the serious near-fatal accident he had, campaign decisions shifted to others and it is people like the late Michael Kijana Wamalwa, Charity Ngilu, Raila Odinga and others who played a key role in his election.

The campaigns that the president oversaw personally was in 1992 and in 1997. In 1992 he was handed probably his most humiliating defeat by Kenneth Matiba who hardly held any campaign meetings to mask his very poor health from the public and yet Kibaki criss crossed the country aggressively campaigning. Kibaki ended up a poor third in those first multi-party presidential elections since independence in 1963.

In 1997, Kibaki came second to Moi but ironically was the main stumbling block to opposition unity which would have comfortably removed Moi from office. Instead he stubbornly stuck to his plan to...

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