Kenya to Export Rice to Japan in 2011

By Mwarang'ethe

It is year 2011. Kenya has had a bumper rice harvest due to the generous assistance of our dear friends from Japan, the land of the rising sun (remember rice comments in the article “Industrializing a Nation is an art of War”). Since our friends are believers in the free trade, we will encourage our rice farmers to export our surplus rice to Japan since they had a bad harvest last year. After all, don’t they freely export Toyota Land Cruisers cars for our police? With that in mind, let us examine the facts and see how they would treat our rice.

In 1993 - 94, the Japanese government had a problem in its hands. In the summer of 1993, because of poor weather, Japan experienced poor rice harvests. So, in 1994, it had to import rice. However, they also knew that, from 1994 onwards, good harvests will resume. So, the challenge was how to ensure continued iron grip control of its rice market in the future when good harvests resumed. They wanted to ensure that, the imports will not undermine domestic price regulation, and that Japanese consumers will keep buying subsidized, expensive Japanese rice rather than the equally tasty and cheaper (as free trade teaches us) Californian variety once good harvests were back.

Things were a bit complicated because the new rice accord under the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) ruled out reestablishing imports quotas or other barriers. So the ingenious Ministry of Agriculture had to design a more subtle means of maintaining control of the market in the face of a completely confused situation. There are many different kinds of rice, some of which work nicely for steamed rice (such as the short-grained Californian variety) and some of which don't (such as the long-grained Thai rice). For sushi, you need Japanese or Californian rice, while for other dishes, such as Chinese food, Thai or Chinese rice is much better.

This is how they solved this dilemma. Hiding behind a superficial argument of "national equality," the government announced that all Japanese citizens had to bear the same burden of eating foreign rice.

On March 7, 1994, the Ministry issued a directive that no rice could be sold separately, but all rice--domestic-- and imported--had to be mixed, so that the resulting rice does not have a "nationality." The directive prescribed a mix formula of 30% Japanese, 50% Californian, Chinese, and Australian combined, and 20% Thai rice.

Mixing rice has two effects. First, the mixed result is appalling: You simply cannot steam a California/Thai mix, and neither can you prepare it otherwise. Second, based on a rumour campaign it was alleged there were dead rodents and the like in the Thai imports, so, the Japanese clearly dislike the Thai rice. Thus, by combining it with the other imports, the Ministry severely diminished the value of the mixed result.

What may have been the idea behind the "mix directive"? Given the intolerable result, every Japanese in his/her right mind decided to buy the HOME-GROWN, non-mixed produce as soon as it hit the market again. There was no need for import quotas or other non- tariff activities. Japanese consumers happily reverted to buying Japanese rice and pay up to ten times more for it, as long it was available.

And indeed, the first reaction to this policy was a national panic that led to large-scale hoarding of DOMESTIC (unmixed) rice, as well as to a sharp increase in national concern over self-sufficiency, and a pronounced aversion to imported rice. By the end of April, 1994, the mass media had further elevated the national concern. At the same time, there was also a growing public outrage over the Ministry's restricting policies, and the Hata government needed some positive
publicity.

To stay abreast of the development and in control of the situation, the Ministry of Agriculture did not intervene when rice retailers, who are regulated and licensed under the Rice Control Law (which has its roots in the 1930s), set out to reinterpret the "mix directive." While still literally mixed and sold in one bag, rice also began to be sold in "sets" of four smaller packages with rice from different countries, bundled together according to the same formula. To give the consumer a "choice," the old blend as well as a completely "foreign" blend of U.S. (40%), Chinese (40%), and Thai (20%) rice was also offered.

Retailers, knowing the Ministry was under pressure, then moved on to ignore the mix directive altogether. But make no mistake; the Ministry was still in control of the market. Because it had become clear that the citizens sufficiently disliked Thai rice and had not developed a craze for Chinese rice either, foreign rice can now be sold just by itself-- with one exception. The most popular of all imported produce, the sticky California rice, still did not sell in its pure form. It was mixed with rice from other states (which remains unlabeled, but was most likely long-grained) and sold under the name "American." The official reason for this mixing was that there was not enough Californian rice for everyone. Some retailers openly admitted that the rice was mixed in order to lower its quality, so that they could also sell the less popular Chinese and Thai grains.

In addition to this deliberate policy of reducing quality, the "American" mix was subjected to a 580% tariff, which made it exactly as expensive as medium-quality Japanese rice ($7 per kilo), thereby removing all the price advantage. The Japanese government was expected to make a profit of $2.7 billion out of its rice imports. This revenue was to be used to subsidize Japanese rice farmers and improve their irrigation systems (the more water, the less the influence of weather on the harvest). The idea was that as the new GATT "minimum access rule" kicked in 1995, the Japanese farmers would have become price competitive.

In the meantime, Californian rice farmers were bending over backwards to ship highest- quality rice to Japan in the hope of gaining market share. The California short grain is by all measures comparable in quality with Japanese rice; and it is better than all other rice imports to Japan. Unfortunately, Japanese consumers were unable to buy pure Californian rice and appreciate its quality. There is probably no better example of Japanese managed trade (free trade to the foolish). Not surprisingly, the minister under whose auspices the mix plan was designed and implemented was the head of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in Prime Minister Tsutomu Hata's cabinet).

Look at this genius:

(a) The quality of the foreign product is disguised by a mix directive.

(b) Second, as the panic reaches its peak, the mix directive is "diluted" to avoid domestic and foreign criticism, but prohibitive tariffs ensure that high-quality foreign products don't have a price advantage.

(c) Subsidies help Japanese farmers increase their output.

(d) All of this rests on a strategy of misinformation to the Japanese consumer. Although the Japanese papers cover the story, the rest of the world doesn't hear about it.

So, that’s how your good friends would treat your rice should you think that, you can export your rice to them.

Stuff to ponder about

(a) How do we treat our imported stuff?

(b) Do you see any free trade which we have embraced so much?

(c) If they treat Americans this way, what about Kenyans?

As we noted, industrialising a nation is an art of war, and those who think/believe that, it is just a matter of been “development conscious,” “fighting” corruption and AIDS etc, we say, woe unto you.

More Stuff to ponder about

(a) Bob Marley sung that, “these are the words of my master, no weak heart shall prosper.” Are we weak or strong hearted people?

(b) Dr. Carter G. Woodson, the author of The Mis-Education of the Negro, in 1933, made some great observations:

(i) The Negro of his time was being culturally indoctrinated, rather than being taught, in the American schools. This conditioning, he claimed, caused the African-Americans to become dependent and to seek out inferior places in the greater society of which they were a part.
He challenged his readers to become autodidacts and to "do for themselves", regardless of what they were taught.

(ii) History shows that it does not matter who is in power... those who have not learned to do for themselves and have to depend solely on others never obtain any more rights or privileges in the end than they did in the beginning.

(iii) When you control a man's thinking you do not have to worry about his actions. You do not have to tell him not to stand here or go yonder. He will find his 'proper place' and will stay in it. You do not need to send him to the back door. He will go without being told. In fact, if there is no back door, he will cut one for his special benefit. His education makes it necessary.

Could he have been describing Kenyans/Africans in 2010?

This man, Ruto

Footnote/checkmate: .......Gideon Moi, Kanu vice chair, observed and wondered recently "In 2007, Ruto fiercely criticised Kanu for supporting Kibaki yet he is now a frequent guest at State House. I urge Ruto to use his newly found friendship with the President to have innocent youth languishing in jails and police cells released following their arrest for alleged role in post-election violence. Please Bw Ruto when you take tea and githeri with the President at State House remember to address the issue of the suffering Kalenjin youth"..............

In typical Kenyan style, a vicious political war is currently going on behind the scenes that is fascinating but also worrying because most analysts doubt if it will end well. The battle is between Agriculture minister William Ruto and Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

What is even more fascinating about this mostly silent war are the tactics being used some of which are fairly new and yet are proving to be pretty effective.

But let us start at the beginning.
What many people don't know is that Ruto is also an excellent natural actor, well able to work up emotions in himself and produce real tears as he did in this photo.

The first big mistake Raila Odinga made with William Ruto was to concede to pressure and adjust the ODM constitution to make room for two deputy leaders. At the time Musalia Mudavadi was already second in command but the extra slot was created specifically for Willliam Ruto. As leader of a large political party like ODM this was a very amateurish mistake to make. Too amateurish. It confirmed what many already suspected. That Ruto had ODM by the balls and without Ruto there would be no ODM.

What Raila should have done would have been to put his foot down early on. As it is he not only postponed a problem but revealed his vulnerability to the immensely ambitious, ruthless and calculating Ruto. As recently as 1990 William Ruto used to hang around at the seats outside Hilton Hilton with other jobless Kenyans hungry and broke. The man did not rise form the jobless corner to such a powerful politician by accident. Anybody who underestimates him does so at their own peril.

Ruto got his start from the massive amounts of cash that Moi printed in 2002 and which was mainly distributed by the notorious YK92 (Youth for Kanu 92) of which Ruto was an official. To his credit he followed this up with other bigger deals like getting land allocations from Kanu for free and re-selling the land at exorbitant prices, mostly to government agencies. In a few short months it became difficult to link Ruto to the man with blood-shot eyes yawning from pangs of hunger at the Hilton jobless corner.

Admittedly one of the reasons why Ruto had ODM and Raila by the balls was because Ruto played a crucial role in getting Raila to where he is today. Never forget that the troubles that forced Mwai Kibaki and PNU to the negotiating table were not the ones in Kibera and Kisumu but the mayhem and bloodbath in the vast Rift Valley. This is the reason why the Kalenjin community strongly felt that they were shortchanged in the coalition government that was formed after Kofi Anan’s peace deal. Logically-speaking such a government should have had over 50% of its’ members hailing from the Rift Valley.

Thus Ruto’s fallout from ODM was only a matter of time and indeed the local press started speculations of the inevitable pretty early.

The following are highlights of the ongoing Ruto/Raila war.

- The high point was when the Prime Minister suspended Ruto (along with Sam Ongeri) pending investigations into scandals in their respective ministries. The usually slow-to-act Mwai Kibaki moved at such lighting speed (that I am still dazed several weeks later) to re-instate Ruto and Ongeri and make it crystal clear that the toothless Prime Minister did not even have power to “suspend” his own DM ministers, let alone sack them.

- Next Raila and his allies dropped Ruto as an ODM representative in the powerful house business committee. This was long overdue because it has been known for a long time now that Ruto is a frequent visitor to Mwai Kibaki’s State House and it did not need Ruto ally, Cherangany MP Joshua Kuttuny to spill the beans to the rest of the world (which he did last month.

- Ruto hit back in what he saw as a smart political move but which more serious analysts see as mere Kindergarten power games mainly designed to rub egos. He visited Kisumu but not before organizing a rousing welcome in advance and ensuring that the press would be there to capture it. Hi PNU supporters also ensured that they gave ODM trouble in their bid to get thgeir changed list passed in parliament.

- The PM planned a “revenge visit” in Ruto’s constituency that should have taken place last week but was cancelled at the eleventh hour, mainly because of the President’s visit in the area when he opened the Eldoret show last week. The highlight of that function was Ruto riding in the presidential ceremonial Landrover standing on his right side and waving to the crowds.

- Allegations have been made that Ruto is receiving financial and political support from PNU to destabilize ODM from within by ensuring that his Kalenjin community is out of ODM. There is plenty to suggest that this is true the most obvious is how PNU has handled Ruto over the last year or so. Then it is also pretty obvious that Ruto has done an excellent job in dismantling ODM from the once dreaded behemoth that forced through the nomination of Kenneth Marende as the new speaker to the crumbling walking skeleton it is today.

- The PM’s allies have been working very hard behind the scenes to prop up opponents of the current seating Rift Valley MPs. The idea is to have these individual’s stand in the 2012 elections on an ODM ticket and hopefully unseat the incumbents and thus duplicate the power and popularity the party had in the Rift Valley in 2007. There is a lot of money that is being spent on the ground and it makes many people wonder where all the ODM cash is coming from. To be fare PNU are also spending a lot of cash and the same mystery lingers. About the ODM master plan for the Rift Valley for 2012; it all looks very neat on paper but as any experienced political operative will tell you neat theoretical political plans hardly ever work out when implemented in the real world (ask President Mwai Kibaki).

And the war continues. The recently “leaked” reports that have helped kick up storms over certain allegedly corrupt cabinet ministers from the ODM side of government are the latest PNU move to completely dismantle ODM and ensure that Raila Odinga comes nowhere near the presidency in 2012.

The most worrying thing about the current Raila/Ruto war is that there are signs that both sides are getting more and more desperate by the day. Desperate people do desperate things and therein lies the grave danger in Kenya’s already tricky political landscape.

Previous Kumekucha article on Ruto

Another recent post by Chris: Letter to Esther Arunga

Kumekucha writes to Esther Arunga and especially her “closest” advisors

Hi Esther,

Hope that this brief note finds you okay and in high spirits despite the storm you are riding through at the moment.

What has really prompted me to write this letter is the self-righteous attitude those who are eager to give you unsolicited advice seem to have.
They KNOW that you are wrong.

They KNOW that you should not get involved with the people you are involved with.

They KNOW that you are a spoilt brat.

Hell, reading the c*** they are writing I am convinced that they have all the answers. Only that I have lots of information in my possession that says different. Some of them have been involved in very questionable relationships, the only difference is that they never came out in the open and confessed their love/gold-digging activities.

The difference, Esther is that you came out and answered your critics by telling it as it is. You spoke the truth from your heart. You never bothered to get some smart PR people to advice you on how to spin your situation so that you would come out looking good in the eyes of the public.

Of course there is a possibility that others may be out to use you… it happens all the time (and who doesn’t get used now and then?) but that is beside the point here. Doesn’t everybody have a right to make their own decisions and mistakes/smart moves and learn from them without the whole world and especially people full of themselves trying to advice them. Really what these self-appointed advisors should do is remove the log from their own eyes before touching the spec in yours.

I offer no advice Esther because that is not what you need right now. I have my own thoughts on this whole saga and opinions but what I am sure of is that they are Not as prejudiced and self-serving righteous as those of others.

I offer encouragement. You are a very brave person. You have the right to be here like everybody else. You have the right to love who you want to love and to be with whom you want to be with. If those who know it all think different then in my humble view they should shove their opinions… you know where.

Have a nice day, girl.

Earlier Esther Arunga post by Chris

Industrializing a Nation is an Art of War

By Mwarang'ethe

Kenyans have agonised over many years why we are unable to develop with all the manpower and resources in our hands. With a religious conviction, we have convinced ourselves that, if only we were less corrupt, we would have ended our poverty and attendant social miseries. We are also convinced that, all will be well if we utilise “donors” funds well, have free primary education, and “fight” diseases like AIDS and malaria.

These are myths and delusions fostered by the propaganda from the media, donors, NGOs and our schools. As thus, this common wisdom is totally baseless. The other side of the story that is left deliberately untold is this. Nations do not develop or industrialize and maintaining their prosperity, by fighting corruption, diseases and such mumbo jumbo.

In truth, these are lullabies given to Africans to ensure their continued deep sleep as others f#%£% them. Excuse that French please. So, how do nations develop? Well developing a nation IS AN ART OF WAR.

Industrialising a nation is an art of what, is what the Japanese Prince cannot tell Raila. (See Japanese Prince Dinner with Kenyan PM Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ITzlWOqYc4&feature=channel.

Among other lullabies, the Japanese Prince did mention how Japan has helped us grow more rice (yes, a Malthusian activity we have mentioned many times). In his remarks, the Kenyan Prime Minister said there are a number of Japanese companies in Kenya. He seemed very pleased with that.

In this article, we wish to dispel these delusions and myths, not with mere speculations, but with factual evidence of what Japan has been doing since 1945. Armed with these facts, you will decide whether we know what we are doing or not.

After the 2WW, the remaining imperial centre of capital, i.e. USA was desperate to stop the spread of socialism. To do so, it had to assist countries like Japan that had lost that war. So, USA provided Japan with:

 Industrial technology.
 Finance capital.
 Dropped import barriers while permitting Japan and Germany to protect their industries and markets. This was the same formula USA had used in building its industry and wealth.

Question

(a) Did Kenya/Africa get access to technology, finance, markets and more crucially, are we able to protect our industry and market?
(b) If no, it means that, we believe we will develop under free trade regime. We will be very happy to get any example of a nation that has ever developed under free trade regime as we have embraced it.

As Japan rebuilt under the above conditions, it developed long term strategies for entering existing high tech markets (Schumpeterian activities, the opposite of Malthusian activities like rice growing the lullaby the Japanese Prince sung to us). These strategies were composed in detailed plans spanning 20 – 50 years for getting a share of existing markets. At first, it started by introducing new and highly refined versions of existing products and then slowly upgraded these products.

It begun with CRUDE copies of advanced German cameras like Leica and Rolliflex. They then honed their skills by continually upgrading their entries into these markets until their level of quality and technology began to equal that of Germans and then surpassed them. In a span of less than 20 years, using such long range managerial approach, the Japanese were able to gain by far the largest share of the worldwide camera and optical goods market and thereby, edging Germans to the sidelines.

Having taken this market, they now took aim of other existing markets which they could use their advanced optical skills. These were small copying machines, professional video devices, computerised silicon chip etching equipment. They now dominate this market as well and have edged the Americans who plan 24 months ahead.

As Japanese chanted free trade and laissez faire lullabies to Africa, the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the International Trade and Industry (MITI) controlled the government’s budget, set monetary policy, collected taxes, supervised banks, brokers, and insurers and established parameters for credit, asset values, capitalization and lending.

More so, through cross shareholding, they ensured no outsider takeover (remember how Raila is happy about presence of Japanese companies in Kenya?). To further these mercantile schemes under the banner of laissez faire for the foolish, they ensured Japanese corporations are primarily owned by each other.

Questions for you

(a) Does Kenya have any long term plans for entering any high technology market? Please do not tell us about tea branding and tourism marketing in Germany.
(b) How coordinated is ownership of Kenyan companies like Kenya Railway, Safaricom, Telkom, Ken Gen etc?

To further protect its markets, Japan came up with very complicated high product prices which were protected from imports by arbitrary health, safety and quality standards. These “standards” permitted charging Japanese consumers 3 times the price for consumer products as that paid by the rest of the world. Through these "standards" which are never met, instead of TARIFF, the Japanese prevented others from selling on its home front. See the irony, in Kenya/Africa; a Minister proudly launches a new foreign product as you can see here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVC4OcWFf9U&feature=player_embedded#.

These high prices were nothing but hidden taxes along with other dictated policies and creative accounting which gave Japanese industry the same finance capital as it has received 100 years earlier. In other words, government financed industry and protected home market created a comparative advantage which permitted the Japanese industry to sell, for a period of time, at what would be a loss for a free enterprise corporation. Having built the world’s most modern industry and captured markets around the world, so long as trade surpluses are maintained, losses can be absorbed up to a point by those high domestic prices taxing back a part of the economic multiplier gains.

When Japanese government tried to deflate cautiously the land and stock bubbles by raising interest rates, the Wall Street bankers went on the attack using their new weapons of mass destruction, i.e. derivatives to sell the market short and bring it crashing down.

In other words, Japanese formula is this. Buy RAW RESOURCES cheap (from Kenya/Africa), build and maintain the most efficient industry in the world, educate its citizens, pay Japanese labour well (remember SAPS from IMF telling us to pay badly?) charge Japanese consumers above export prices, price exports just under the products of other nations and sell enough on the world market to pay for it all with a substantial cushion to spare. It may appear that, these policies contravene the Most Favoured Nation clause in free trade treaties. Well, that’s a small deal. As long as all nations face same arbitrary standards, the problem is “solved.”

So, why don’t the rich nations force Japanese to comply with the laws Kenya/Africa must comply with? Very simple. In 1987 when Japanese sold its bonds, the global liquidity was lowered such that, America experienced the worst one day stock collapse. So, if they are forced to, they will liquidate these investments, properties and dollar will crush. This is jiu jitsu economics at its best because USA and Japan, China etc, are now locked in debt – equity embrace that no knows how to get out of it. Remember that, these nations have very old art of art of war skills.

When the Western capital withdrew finance capital from Asian Tigers (this is a story for another day) they shattered (deliberately) these economies and then bought the best industries for pennies on the dollar. When they turned these derivatives as we noted above on Japan, they met their match. Japanese never permitted outside finance capital to gain TITLE to their industrial wealth. How so? They simply kept all bankrupt banks and industries running by ABANDONING capitalism’s bankruptcy rules. This enabled Japan to maintain trade surplus, expand savings, and thereby avoid DROP IN LIVING STANDARDS. We see the entire world now trying these formulae’s. We will see the end of this soon.

We have cut short a very long story, but, we hope short as it is, we are able to show that, developing a nation is more than fighting corruption, inviting foreign investors, “bringing development,” new constitutions etc as we are told. It requires leaders who understand the art of war.

Stealing Kenyans' Skeletons, Raiding Graves

Suspended Local Government Permanent Secretary Mr Sammy Kirui.


THE PUBLIC RIP-OFF AT CITY HALL; THE FACTS, FICTION AND THEATRE


By Miguna Miguna, MARCH 10, 2010

In law, they call it an open and shut case. That’s what the rip-off surrounding the “purchase of land for cemetery by City Council of Nairobi” is. This is a fraud from the beginning to the end. Let me explain using credible primary evidence and chronologically demonstrate how this fraud was cooked and executed by senior public officers at the Treasury, Nairobi City Council and Ministry of Local Government.

A letter by then PS for Local Government, Sammy Kirui dated 25 June 2008 addressed to the former Town Clerk of Nairobi, John Gakuo, refer to various correspondence between the Nairobi City Council, the Ministry of Local Government and Treasury confirming that the “Government” had allocated funds for the fraudulent transaction. The letter notes that a meeting held at the Ministry headquarters and chaired by the Senior Deputy Secretary on 5 June 2008, stressed the need to “finalize” the transaction. By this date, no land had been identified or purchased. It is unclear how and why Sh 350 million of public funds was released by Treasury to Mr. Kirui.

On June 27, 2008, Mr. Kirui instructed that payment for the non-existent land be processed and Sh 350 million be paid out to unidentified people. The parcels of land identified for purchase were LR 23222, 23223, 23224, 23225, 23226, 23227, 23228, 23229 and 23230, measuring 75 acres to be purchased for use as cemetery. There is reference to a draft sale agreement between the City Council and some unnamed vendors.

Mr. Kirui directed payments on State Counsel E.N. Torome’s Memo dated 27 June 2008. The same day, the Principal Accountant at the Ministry, J.O. Warega, wrote to the Chief Accountant confirming that Mr. Kirui had “approved payment.” Mr. Warega instructed the Chief Accountant to prepare payment of Sh 289 million to E.N. Omotii & Company Advocates as “per the approval.” No indication why this large sum is being paid out. This happened before the land had been located and no Sale Agreement had been signed.

Mr. Kirui sent another letter to Mr. Gakuo on 8 September 2008 stating that “it is noted from your letter that identification of a suitable parcel of land for use as a cemetery through personal visits is not yielding results.” He directed that a paid advertisement be placed seeking appropriate land. Yet, payments were processed by Mr. Kirui more than six months before the required procurement conditions were met or appropriate land identified.

On 30 October, 2008, Mr. Kirui sent another letter to Mr. Gakuo stating that: “It is now 5 months since you initiated action on this matter and yet you have not concluded and advised the Ministry to effect payment. The continued holding of this payment is adversely affecting other financial transactions in the Ministry. From the date of this letter I want to get this matter concluded within a period of 5 days. At the expiry of this period the Ministry will take over the procurement process and proceed with the advertisement for the purchase of the land for the cemetery.”

The haste and desperation to conclude the fraud so as to cash the large public cheque is obvious from the contents of Mr. Kirui’s letter.

By letter dated 4 December 2008, Mr. Kirui says to Mr. Gakuo: “it is particularly disturbing that the tender documents are alleged to have been defective.” Yet, on 18 December 2008, in response to a query by the Chief Financial Officer over the same issue and recommendation that the ministry’s State Counsel peruse the documents, Mr. Kirui responded that “State Counsel perusing the agreement is just another bureaucratic hurdle” to delay the transaction. Kirui pointed out that even “the other bidders” had not complained. Bureaucratic procedure suddenly becomes an unnecessary hindrance.

None of the documents were copied to or signed by Hon. Musalia Mudavadi, in violation of section 144(2) of the Local Government Act that states that all land transactions must be approved by the minister.

On 15 February 2010, the Controller and Auditor-General forwarded his audit report on the transaction to the finance minister, Uhuru Kenyatta. He also delivered a copy to Hon Mudavadi who then forwarded it to the KACC on 17 February 2010, and requested that action be expedited on the matter. On 19 February 2010, Mr. Mudavadi sent a letter to Amb Muthaura, with a copy of the report and asked Muthaura to “take peremptory measures” to implement the report’s recommendations.

Neither KACC nor Muthaura took any action; not until the irregular leakage of an incomplete KACC report. The true value of the land in question is Sh 24 million. The transaction was sealed using a forged valuation report that inflated the price to Sh 325 million, which was paid out to among others, a sister to the PNU’s James Nyamweya. The land purportedly purchased is not the same as the nine parcels listed above. Mudavadi was not involved and never received a cent.

Very Trying Moments for ODM, DPM Mudavadi

Corruption Ghost Stalks ODM ministers.

The Deputy PM and ODM’s Minister for Local Government Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi was the whistleblower of the Nairobi City Commission cemetery scandal. He purposefully wrote to the Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura to take action on some officers in his ministry implicated in the scam which he claims was engineered without his knowledge. Mudavadi has also been grilled by the Parliamentary Committee of Local Government, which interestingly made a recommendation that he be investigated for not bothering to visit the cemetery site!

Prime Minister Raila Odinga was last night reported to have asked both Mudavadi and Mayor Geofrey Majiwa to take political responsibility of the scam and step aside to allow KACC to undertake forensic investigations. Rumours have been flying around Nairobi this morning that Mudavadi will be handing over his request to temporarily step aside at any time if only to show his party ODM means business in tackling high level graft.

Many will recall that although President Kibaki suspended key officials of the Office of the Prime Minister over the maize scandal, the suspension came hours after the PM had already received resignation letters from Mohammed Isahakhia and Caroli Omondi. Therefore it will not be entirely a surprise if Mudavadi and Majiwa also hand in their resignation going by the commendable trend already shown by ODM.

While addressing the an International Monetary Fund forum on Africa’s Economic Transformation Prime Minister Raila Odinga maintained that politicians and leaders implicated in corruption must be held to account for the government’s war against graft to succeed. Raila told the forum that corruption had been the biggest impediment to development and that the war against corruption must be personalised by identifying individuals concerned and making them carry their own cross. Wise words indeed. But will ODM walk the talk?

Only yesterday, and more than a month after Mudavadi’s pleas for action to be taken on MoLG officials, the President reluctantly interdicted several government officials. President Kibaki who has been under intense pressure from his coalition partner and donors to crack down on high level corruption went to say that the Kshs. 259 million that was overpaid for purchase of the cemetery land must be recovered from the beneficiaries and “collaborators including lawyers and agents, should be prosecuted for the serious fraud which they have committed against the Kenyan public”. Music to my ears, I must admit.

However, keen observers will have not failed to notice that this is action of interdicting government officials was taken the same day the President was meeting the IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Interestingly, the directive by the president to demand that the stolen money be refunded is a historic and a first for Kibaki’s eight year old presidency. The Kenyan public are wondering if the thieves of Anglo-Leasing, Triton, Maize, FPE, Kroll and even Goldenberg will also be charged and asked to refund the hundreds of billions of public money stolen to line the pockets of a few individuals. At long last the public will appreciate the positive side of ever forming the grand coalition.

If Mudavadi and Majiwa do indeed step aside, the pressure will only be increased on Kibaki and his corruption laden PNU side. If they do not step aside, ODM will be seen to have lost credibility in the eyes of the public. The ODM Party Leader will also be placed in an awkward situation.

We shall then have to wait and see if the KACC will indeed find Mudavadi and Majiwa culpable and charge them in an anti-corruption court. Not much hope in that direction though.

Watch Out For Kibaki's Third Term Soon

I made some pretty cocky predictions about 2010 and so far so good because the way things are happening I am being made to look pretty good.

One of the things I said about 2010 is that it will be the year of the sucker punch. Now here is a possible sucker punch that beats them all. The truth is that I have been listening to some far-fetched claims about president Kibaki seeking re-election in 2012 with plenty of skepticism. But never forget that the most unexpected things happen in politics pretty often. Maybe too often for comfort.
Mtukufu Rais Kibaki mama na baba wa taifa mkuu wa majeshi yote ya Kenya na nje. And just like Moi you don't dare breathe without singing his praises.

A few things have made me sit up and change my mind about the Kibaki re-election stories. Most of it I cannot share here because I often receive information that I am NOT allowed to use for various reasons. But let me summarize the information I am talking about by saying that the behaviour of Kibaki handlers, more so in recent weeks does not suggest that they may be packing their bags preparing to leave the corridors of power in 2012. In fact their actions point in the opposite direction. Suggesting that they are in power to stay. Instead of starting to remove personal pictures on the walls folks are ordering new expensive furniture so to speak. Just a figure of speech.

Now as I was working on this post, a tweet by government spokesman Alfred Mutua made my hand freeze on the keyboard. Let me reproduce the Tweet here;
Government is contracting TPain, Young Jeezy and 50Bob to remix Tawala Kenya Tawala to "Tawala Kibaki Tawala" Government spokesperson Alfred Mutua has tweeted this information.

Now I appreciate and respect the fact that when the song Tawala Kenya first assaulted the ears of long suffering Kenyans, most of our loudest-mouthed commentators here in this blog were at best still in diapers and at worst were not yet even a sperm determinedly swimming towards fertilizing some unfortunate ovary. I was a very young lad then. But young enough to be aware of what was going on. It was a good tune but I sensed lots of unease and even annoyance in Kenyans about the song. Years later I was to discover that the song was designed to help boost confidence in the then shaky Daniel arap Moi trying to step into the huge shoes of Jomo Kenyatta with the long bloody shadows of the Kiambu Mafia hanging over him.

Now the government (that really means Mutua and the president’s closest handlers) has decided to release a new version of the song in praise of Kibaki and his leadership. Now why would anybody want to do that in the twilight of their administration? Unless…

…Of course!!! Unless they knew something that the rest of us Kenyans did not know. As I write this the draft constitution is in parliament and Kenyans would do well to remember what President Bill Clinton said in his biography about how law making is pretty much like manufacturing sausages.

For those who don’t get the picture let me help. Picture this guy who has not trimmed his nails for a while handling and stuffing bits of minced meat to make sausages. Then there is this guy who has just returned to his work station from a call of nature in some toilet that smells so bad that the smell in itself has succeeded in chasing away flies. And this toilet has no toilet paper. And since we all know that there is no water in Nairobi the man dives straight back and clasps a large chunk of the stuff that makes your favourite sausages. None of this will cross your mind when you grab the beautifully packaged sausages at the super market. Or chew that nice brown fried sausage, lick you lips and grab more from the dish. And so Clinton’s point and my point here is that Kenyans who are all expecting a constitution close to perfection should relax and forget it and remember that deals and counter deals are going to be made in the final chiseling going on just now. Yes making laws is pretty dirty business anywhere in the world, now imagine a whole constitution and there are so many interests to be protected and sins to be covered up.

In other words it is not a far-fetched dream that the new constitution will allow Kibaki to stand for a third and even fourth term. Need I remind you that when the limited reforms of 2002 were passed limiting the term of a president to two terms Moi was able to run for another two terms? Most opposition MPs hurriedly agreed because nobody believed that Moi (who had never stood in a seriously competitive election in his entire life before then) would win re-election (by whatever means) back to State House in 2002. And that could be the exact feeling that many have about Emilio Mwai Kibaki. After all, Moi who never saw the inside of a university ruled Kenya for 24 years. How can a former university don rule for only 10 short years?

Tawala Kenya tawala, rais Kibaki tawala Kenya tawala… Unongoza vyema rais Kibaki unongoza vyema

Rough translation: Rule Kenya president Kibaki, you are ruling very well, continue to rule Kenya.

Oh boy!!! Will the last man leaving Kenya remember to switch off the lights… that is if the switch is still there.

P.S. Bethuel Kiplagat impunity post to follow

PDM Stands for Progressivism, Nothing Else

ODM has been checkmated big time. The orange party has been brutally reminded that there is no monopoly to permutation of letters. Give it to PDM for scoring big by leaping to P from O in the alphabetical ranking. Only DM remains a constant.

What is more, PDM singularly stands for PROGRESSIVISM. You cannot beat that using any linguistic pretense. After grand coalition come grand ideas. Learning from the master/s and even taking it a notch higher, PDM is collating all the hitherto PNU big shots.

With PROGRESSIVISM comes the mantra of equitable distribution of wealth. Kenya couldn't have asked for a sure cure to ethnic tension. It PDM you have tried and tested political hands teaming with both young and old.

The era of briefcase political parties is surely gone. Soon we Kenya will be an African case study with only two or three strong parties competing for power thanks to PDM.

And let you forget, PDM has REINVENTED our own brand of ANC where like-minded parties of all shapes and shades share the common ideology of PROGRESSIVISM politically, economically and socially.

In PDM we have arrived at the political nirvana and there is no turning back. The naysayers will be left at the dock as we sail deep into political doldrums.

Why start with a vowel if a consonant can do the job even better? Welcome to murky and Micky Mouse Kenyan politics.

Juicy Esther Adongo Timberlake (EAT)

Eat and lets eat. It is a free world and let people eat and get eaten generously. The burden of modern freedom and civilization.

And then the killer punch. You can imagine if Esther's parents were also to file a counter suit demanding compensation for all the diapers, weetabixes and lollipops. Maybe Esther would counter that she is a byproduct of her parents' emotional bliss.

The Arungas financed a law degree that has come back to haunt them. The resulting legal scoundrel can afford to wed in prison/remand oblivious of the fact that is not permissible under Kenyan laws.

Whatever HELL(on) has brought together no parent must try/dream to put asunder. Consenting adults have all the rights to indulge and parents must learn to know when to let go.

Esther has set a precedence. Soon many will be suing their parents for forcing alien names and beliefs (religion) on them. Never joke with YouTube generation.

The Raila Prediction…

Warning: If you are a Raila-hater or PNU diehard I strongly recommend that you DO NOT attempt to read this post. Leave this site immediately and come back another day. Possible consequences of reading this post for people who fall under the category I have just mentioned is white searing rage to such an extent that you will see red instead of the computer screen in front of you. Naturally this will lead to a very bad day for you and consequently you may start typing abusive comments here without thinking that will not add any value to the quality debates that normally happen in this blog. You have been warned.


Regular readers of this blog will be aware of the fact that I am do NOT support the political ambitions of the Prime Minister especially his presidential ambitions. However one of the reasons why Kumekucha is so successful is because we do not suppress any views from our readers. In essence we agree to disagree without getting all emotional about it.

A reader recently left a fascinating comment in an old post which I was sure many readers have missed. The other reason why I am giving this reader’s brief comments a full blown post is because I believe predictions should be given maximum publicity so that when they are proved correct or wrong we can give the self-proclaimed prophets the necessary accolades or barbs whatever the case may be.

Well this reader predicts that what is going to happen in Kenya next will be a snap election necessitated by the passing of a new constitution. Raila being the best prepared presidential candidate currently will win those elections and become president of Kenya. However his detractors will be so pissed off that they will leave Kenya in exile to other nations. However peace will reign in the country and Kenya will take off to unprecedented prosperity and success.

Fascinating. Although this reader’s prediction does not mention what will happen to Hon William “pain in the you know where and thorn in the flesh to Raila” Ruto.

Well let’s wait and see shall we?

Remember Chris still sticks to THIS prophecy about Raila’s future in State House.

Progressive+Democratic+NonPolitical

The future of politics is here today and it never looked so fresh before. No more political parties, no more meaningless mottos and no more politics of regurgitation. It's all about Movement and ask yourself "where are we going?"Definitely not forward without any motion!The future never looked so good and what movement do you belong to?



Eugene Wamalwa Biography

Eugene Ludovic Wamalwa is now minister for justice. He belongs to the Party of National Unity and was elected to represent the Saboti Constituency in 2007.

The death of his brother and vice president Michael Wamalwa Kijana in 2003 vacated the Saboti MP seat. In the following by-elections, Eugene Wamalwa vied for the seat under little known Republican Party of Kenya (RPK) but was defeated. The by-election was won by Davies Wafula Nakitare of NARC.

He again contested the Saboti parliamentary seat on a FordKenya ticket under the PNU umbrella in 2007 and won. He has now shown interest as a candidate in the 2012 presidential elections.

Many people believe he has been appointed justice minister to help protect his G& colleagues as much as possible against charges they face in the ICC at the Hague. Eugene is said to be a lawyer by training but details on his educational background are scanty.

Was Eugene Evicted?


MEANWHILE word on the street is that Eugene Wamalwa was evicted from his rental house recently. Rumors have been going round that Wamalwa was having issues with his landlord since he was avoiding paying rent. The Saboti MP is alleged to have accumulated arrears that ran into millions of shillings.

Apparently, his landlord got tired of him and threw him out.

Eugene has added that he is aware of the reports and that they are just propaganda.

Moreover, rumors had it that, after he was evicted he moved into a house in Lower Kabete. Drama mushroomed in his new home following the fact that his house already had owners.

His would-be-premise was owned by a family man who had forgotten that his daughters had since moved into that house. The girls would not stand the fact that their father in a bid to please the Saboti MP had traded their home to prove his loyalty to the soon to–be president.

They did not entertain him and he had to take his luggage out and go look for a new place to stay. Interestingly, the daughters to this man have since moved to court in an attempt to bar him from offering his property as gifts to politicians.

Eugene claims that all these allegations are false.

Eugene Wamalwa Evicted by Landlord, It Is True

See also: These Stupid Luos (it is not what you think)

Polls: Raila and Ruto Joined at Fractured Hip

Do you want to top the polls? Well, just pay up and have your imaginary results announced by credible lips for hire. How can ODM still top the polls as the most popular party given the hemorrhage from the recent valentine political bloodbath?

These pollsters must be either from outer planet of just plain guns for hire. How else do you explain their cheeky rating that disrespectfully undermines both the president and thee VP as the least committed to fighting corruption? It is such a cheap paradox to rank the CEO so low with 14% fire to fight graft while his executive authority just saw off 6 PSs last week.

Even more insulting to the collective intelligence of most Kenyans is the Strategic poll disparaging the UNTAINTED VP as only scoring 5% in the war on sleaze. It couldn't have been worse. Now it appears after the daily newspapers, polling bodies are firmly in the pocket of politicians.

There is no way ODM can claim 51% popularity when the poisoned rose it was generously served last valentine has not even withered. Somebody is playing smart by paying Strategic and then very soon it will the quarter report from ex-Steadman. Well, Kenyans won't be fooled any more.

The pollsters can only lie to themselves. We are lucky to have a no nonsense president who promised to tackle corruption and after 2000 days incubation his prescription can only be lethal to the vice. All else is smartly packaged pretence at motion with no commensurate movement nor commitment to slay the dragon.

The “juicy” Esther Arunga controversy

I always hesitate a lot before talking about servants of God. It is very dangerous business indeed because GOD himself warns in his good book, “Touch not my anointed…” and it is mighty difficult to know who HIS anointed ones are these days. One of the reasons being that we have moved away from the days of John the Baptist crying out in the wilderness with the most important message any human has had the privilege of relaying. Prophet John lived on the kind of budget that would make many super-rich modern-day Televangelists faint in disbelief.

Esther, Mrs Hellon and Mr Hellon at the press conference in Runda last week

On the business of cults, virtually every new church to arrive in Kenya has been labeled a cult. David Oyedepo’s Winner’s Chapel was for many years called a cult in Kenya and before that Harry Das’ Chrisco Co-workers fellowship was also called a cult. Both these two ministries are now very well established in the country and very few Kenyans still call them cults.

In view of this, analyzing Esther Arunga and religion feels like skating on very thin ice.

So let’s just jump straight into the politics behind the issue. Let’s start with the petty and office kind.

The first very interesting observation about this saga is the way the story broke. The powerful Radio Africa outfit just wrote and talked about it and never quit until it became a national issue. Radio Africa is that outfit owned by a Ghanian that runs the notorious FM stations called Kiss and Classic. They also publish a daily newspaper called The Star which is where a nice lady reporter called Grace Kerongo first broke the story.

The approach taken by the chaps at Radio Africa was that they were concerned for “a friend and colleague” who had ended up in some cult. Now this is preposterous because if somebody who is your true friend goes AWOL, you don’t make her the subject of discussion on a popular breakfast show. You look for your cell phone call them and set up a lunch date or whatever. As it is none of Esther’s so-called friends and colleagues did that. Poor Esther, with friends like that she would be much better off in a pit and surrounded by the most dangerous snakes in Kenya. Methinks the chaps at Radio Africa were just doing their job in the current vicious war by the Kenyan media to grab the attention of the increasingly bored, distracted and better informed Kenyan audience who are a tad harder to con into some profitable media promotion.

But why did Ms Kerongo think that the Esther Arunga story was important and why did her editors agree? Let me start with the editors. From circulation figures most media managers already know that stories about Kenyan celebrities sell newspapers like crazy. Especially if it is a scandal of sorts and that is why Kerongo dug out all the gory details she could find (more on that in a second). Kerongo thought that this was a big story because Esther was a celeb who had resigned from her high-profile job at KTN as a news anchor to “go live with some pastor.” And this happened shortly after she had broken off her engagement to her finacee, Wilson Malaba in favour of (now the juicy gossip really begins) Quincy Timberlake Wambita Zuma who is reportedly now her lover and happens to be in the country illegally according to the CID. There are unconfirmed reports that Timberlake's dad is a Kenyan of Luo origin. And it gets even juicer. The reason why Arunga broke off with her fiancée is because he reportedly made passes at 2 female members of the Finger of God church. And to make matters worse Mr Malaba had earlier used a log book of “one of Esthers’ cars” to get a loan from some loan shark. Meanwhile there were strong rumours that Esther is already pregnant from her new finacee. She has strongly denied these rumours. Timberlake who is said to have changed his name several times over the years is already married (has been for 11 years) and is a father of two.

Believe it or not, this “amazing” story moves from petty romance and office politics to national politics because Esther’s pastor Joseph Hellon has declared that he will run for the presidency of the republic of Kenya in 2012 and Esther Arunga will be his running mate. Wow!!!

Everything was going just fine for Joseph Hellon’s presidential campaign (can you imagine instant national attention and recognition for a man who had only previously been known to a very small clique of Kenyans as an amazing saxophone player inclined to Jazz) until the CID came calling and arrested Hellon, Esther and Timberlake. But fascinatingly Esther never made it to court and only Hellon and Timberlake were charged and then released on bail because the charge sheet was defective. It turns out that the fellows at CID did not do their due diligence and the Finger of God is in fact registered and yet the main charge against Hellon and Timberlake was belonging to an unregistered and dangerous organization. An interesting aside here is that I will never understand the law. Doesn’t freedom of worship allow you to worship who you want? Ama it is limited to the State’s interpretation of what a proper church should be?

Now why was Esther not charged alongside her fiancée and pastor? Your guess is as good as mine. But never forget that this is Kenya and some powerful people can watch the news and make a maximum of one call and everything changes completely in your favor.

This, the juiciest story in Kenya for a long time continues to play out. We are now awaiting a press conference from Esther’s first fiancée to explain about the log book and when he will return her car. The man has admitted using the log book to get a loan but insists it is a loan from a close friend. I also believe that the CID will discover that they have nothing further to charge Hellon with (announcing your interest in the presidency is “legal” these days and thank God for that).

By the way Esther has threatened to sue the media over some of the stories carried about her and she has to be taken seriously because she is a qualified lawyer.

A previous post about cute News anchors at KTN

Arunga Update: And the Arunga soap gets even more interesting. Family says that they are getting her to see a "shrink" to recover from the whole episode. Meanwhile Timberlake was denied bail because he allegedly absconded from another criminal case still pending in court. Read details HERE.


P.S. William Ruto pulled off quit a move yesterday. The agriculture minister used his money and influences to block a new list of ODM members of the powerful House business committee (that excluded him) from being passed. The “icing on the cake” was that the press caught him being wildly cheered in Kisumu as the drama was unfolding in parliament. Obviously this was for political show and muscle flexing, trying to show Kenyans that he has support in the PM’s own backyard. But even more interesting was the vote on the motion to put aside the issue until further consultation within ODM which Ruto’s allies won unanimously with plenty of support from the PNU side. Some political analysts believe that it will now be very difficult to get any ODM list without Ruto’s name passed in parliament. In my humble view the PM’s woes continue. Phil, an ODM insider whom we have the honour of hosting here in Kumekucha as one of our main writers, predicted last week that by the end of this week Ruto would have been hounded out of office. That does not look like happening.

I have received many emotional outbursts from my dearest readers for my stereotyping of the PM, but why doesn’t he go against the grain and prove my pigeonholing wrong by resigning from office and forfeiting his motorcade? How much punishment can a man take from a raw deal and still cling to office… and for what? Raila’s chance of resigning and looking the hero against the evil Mwai Kibaki regime that has shortchanged him so much right from his election victory, is rapidly disappearing in the horizon with grave political consequences. The 2012 presidential race is going to be the most difficult Raila has ever been involved in… mark my words.

Detestable Stereotype Benefits Kibaki Big Time

I had a fascinating, “sizzling hot haircut” recently.

Before you read any further let me warn those of my readers with weak hearts that this is an adult post. And those very intellectual brothers of mine who do not like explicit posts like this please read no further. There are plenty of other nice intellectually stimulating sites out there that will keep all the stimulus above the shoulders. Those blogs are owned and written by chaps with much better manners than the crude Kumekucha.

Let me also add that I have realized that the old fearless Kumekucha did not fear to step on any toes. I liked the guy because he said it as it was, without fear or favour. I have no idea how the current self-censoring Kumekucha came into being but I don’t like him and this post is the first step in a concerted effort to get rid of him… hopefully for good.
The nice lass from Central province who gave Kumekucha a haircut looks very much like this…

So I was talking about this sizzling haircut I had recently. You see once in a while I go to this kinyozi situated in a constituency in Central province. I go there to hear what people are saying politically and the excuse I use is a haircut. It is a fairly decent Kinyozi I dare add especially when you consider where it is situated. The owner even has a solar back-up system so that if there is a power outage when only half your scalp is done, he can complete the job on solar power. Wow!!! And he does not charge 400 bob like the guys in town.

When I arrived the chap who usually shaves me was busy with another customer and like a true Kenyan, I don’t like waiting… for anything. And so I noticed this nice young lady (I had never seen her there before) giving a young boy a haircut. Actually she was just putting the final touches and before I knew it, she was free. Now, regular readers of this blog will know that I have great respect for women and the easiest way to get into a fight with me is to show disrespect when I am around.

I made the decision in a split second. Why not, I told myself. I settled down to receive the very first haircut I have ever had since I was born from a woman (who is not my mother). My, oh my!!!

One thing about women is that they pay much more attention to detail than men. Without being biased she did a much better job then any man has ever done. Even the 400 bob folks who hang their noses high in town don’t come anywhere near. Imagine those guys at that barber who talk so much politics have never massaged me with hot water after the haircut and so I assumed that they don’t have the facilities. This nice chic did!!

Now the down-side of having such a young girl give a normal red-blooded man a haircut is what I experienced and am about to share with you. Quite a few times her shapely breasts pressed against parts of my body.. Luckily I am a well behaved man in full control otherwise… sitasema!!!.

Then there were a few other times that she held my head gently to tilt to a certain angle so as to shear off the hair better. I am ashamed to say it but I experienced this tingling sensation. You know there are ways only a chic can hold you and no rough man’s hand can achieve the same thing.

Then worse of all there were times when as she leaned forward parts of her anatomy that I cannot dare mention here (brave as I think I am) pressed against me. It was accidental and I am sure she was not conscious. But the effect!!! Aiii!!! Folks I am only human and I like to tell the truth.

I have to admit that I enjoyed that haircut and my hair cannot grow fast enough for me to make a return trip to that Kinyozi. Eat your heart outs kumekuchans, I shall not mention the name of the Kinyozi or where exactly it is. And you know I can’t be bribed. So let’s just leave it at that.

That long hot story was told to illustrate the fact that it is very difficult to avoid stereotyping. From my experience at that Kinyozi the other day (the drama and sex innuendo aside) I am tempted to say that women are much better at jobs like giving a haircuts. And the reason is that they pay much more attention to detail. Men get bored easily and settle into routine much more quickly.

In my last post I realize that I rubbed quite a few of you the wrong side when I suggested that certain political decisions made by the Prime Minister were mistakes he would NOT have made was he not a Luo. Now I realize that stereotyping is detestable but the truth is that most Luos I have met are proud fellows who like to feel important. Including my late best friend called G. Admittedly I have met a few (very few) who are different. Most Kamba women I have met are crazy about sex and tend to be unfaithful in marriage. I have met very few who don’t fit into that pigeonhole. Perhaps two out of a total of well over two dozen women. I have also met very few Kikuyus who do not have a fondness for money that is beyond normal. Most Kisii men I have met have ended up being wife-beaters. Sad, but the truth. And I can go on and on.

Stereotypes are used by the wise to prepare themselves for the unknown. For example if you have an important client coming to your office who happens to be a Kamba man and you don’t know anything else about them, you will use your stereotype knowledge to impress the man and get the business. Hire some nice-looking but decent models to serve drinks and swagger across the room regularly during the meeting etc.

Folks I am convinced that one Emilio Mwai Kbaki used his stereotype knowledge of the Luo community to outfox and outwit one Raila Odinga. That is the truth. Hard to swallow? YES. A terrible thing to say? Absolutely. BUT it is the truth.

Now I know some of you will ask what I have started smoking. And I know that denying it will just be a waste of time. And so I will say, Yes I am smoking something. Uta-do? Expect even crazier posts from Kumekucha from now on.

You must have missed this other controversial Kumekucha post about sleeping arrangements.

I have a big PM’s motorcade, but do I say?

I have said it here before that I love to study the way decisions are made in the corridors of power. Now this constant study has led me to stumble on an astounding discovery. Take a deep breadth now…

The patterns in decision-making in the Raila court is looking more and more like what has happened in the past in the Kibaki court of indecision. Raila Odinga’s decision-making skills have been tested in the high-pressure office of Prime Minister and leader of the most popular political party in the country and they have been found wanting.
The clearest evidence of this is the recent drama and more so Raila Odinga’s decision yesterday to back down after the president rescinded his decision to “suspend” two cabinet minsiters. The first decision to create the crisis in the first place by “suspending” the two ministers, William Ruto and Sam Ongeri was ill-advised and showed that the party king-pins completely mis-read the mood of the Kenyan people and greatly underestimated the intelligence of the Kenyan press. The second decision to back down with a lame threat that errant ODM ministers will be dismissed was even worse. It has made the Prime Minister look so weak and the kind of man who loves to “play little games” at a time when the Kenyan people have had enough and are in no mood for political games. So the Prime Minister cannot even fire ministers from his own ODM side of the cabinet without consulting the president? And yet the president can clearly fire or “re-appoint” ministers from his own PNU wing of government without consulting the PM as he proved on Sunday? What a shame!! Then the two are definitely NOT equal partners are they? Folks lets quit the b***, Raila Odinga is nothing more than a senior prefect and the most he can do is announce that the headmaster is coming (and sometimes the headmaster doesn’t even turn up, remember the Mau tree-planting ceremony?). This is grossly unfair to Mr Odinga because when a man shares responsibility for what is happening in the country, he should surely share the authority to make decisions. As it is I have now absolved Raila from everything that is going wrong in the current government. The buck stops at Mwai Kibaki’s desk!!

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Living collective national lie
When will we stop cheating ourselves and be trutful for once? Here we are all pretending we do not know the problem with the coalition. The accord was and is about POWER sharing. The fact that ODM was conned into being co-opted as a paper tiger is no reason to give reality leave. PNU's interpretaton of NARA accord is that ODM has no power while (thanks to its volubility) ODM shares all blame for inactivity. Meanwhile all Kenyans play along with the scoundrels demanding good governance from ODM while feigning ignorance and outrage when things don't fall in place. Well, I guess it is no understatement to brand all kenyans shameless hypocrites. And you know what, we deserve all the theft and RAPE.

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But back to the subject of this post.

The reason why the latest decision by Odinga was a terrible mistake is because there are certain decisions once made, you don’t abort. You just can’t. It’s like a jumbo jet taxing down the runway for takeoff. There is point it reaches where take off cannot be aborted whatever happens (I think pilots call it the point of no return). Raila reached that point and then promptly aborted take-off. The result is tragic consequences for him and his passengers in the Jumbo jet. In this particular case tragic political consequences for him and ODM—the party that was.

You see the first thing about effective decision-making at the top is that you have be consistent and have clear objectives from the onset. That is exactly what Daniel “no university degree” arap Moi used to do. His politics aside, as a manager Moi was an effective manager. You see politics is fluid and if one is not careful you can quickly degenerate to a situation of running around in circles and getting absolutely nowhere.

When Raila took the decision to sign the national accord that formed the grand coalition government, what were his objectives? Have those objectives changed now? How so?

In my view Mr Odinga had a chance to make a quality decision that would have guaranteed his place as the fourth undisputed president of Kenya. Imagine what would have happened had he signed the agreement but nominated somebody from ODM to take his place and rule with Kibaki? Say Mudavadi or even better, Ruto? Remember what Jacob Zuma of South Africa did after successfully getting rid of Thambo Mbeki from the ANC? Zuma would have taken over right away as president on behalf of ANC. But he did not. He resisted the temptation.

Raila would have remained MP and a major decision-maker within ODM. Okay he would not have had a motorcade and all those people running after him. But I guarantee you he would have been a cult figure in the country by now.

Instead Raila Odinga’s initial decision was based on the fact that it is a curse of our Luo brothers that they always like to feel important. It has been said in Kenya for years that give a Luo man a big office and all the trappings of management-power and you can pay him peanuts. He won’t mind, you have a loyal manager for life. The poor chap will probably live off telling people in the bar about his “big office.”

Raila made the big mistake of being predictable to Kibaki and his chauvinistic Kikuyu court. A friend of mine and former supporter of Raila, put it very well when he told me; “The minute I saw that Raila motorcade I knew that Kibaki had outfoxed him.”

That first decision at the time of the signing of the national accord has led Raila to where he is now. Between a rock and a hard place. Amongst Raila’s objectives at the time was to concede a junior role in a coalition government for the sake of peace in the country while preparing himself for 2012. I am told that part of the deal was that he was assured PNU support in 2012. So in effect Raila had no business taking the decision he did on Valentine’s day. But since he did, he had absolutely no reason back-pedaling so soon. In effect he is now looking more and more like Mwai Kibaki in his first term. A decision-maker just putting out fires and running round in circles but with no clear direction.

Interestingly those surrounding the Prime Minister are displaying very similar characteristics. Take Miguna Miguna for instance. Is he a Canadian national or a Kenyan? Since Kenya does not allow dual citizenship (and he is still using his Canadian passport), this former Kenyan is technically a Canadian. Does he have a work permit? Or perhaps he wants to enjoy the benefits of his adopted home country, Canada and at the same time take away the very limited job opportunities his brothers have in Kenya. How fair is that? How patriotic is that?
Miguna Miguna (with cap), the Canadian national is pictured with "The Captain" and other Kenyans.

Take another example; Salim Lone. The on-and-off-and-on-again spin doctor of the Prime Minister. The last we heard was that Mr Lone had resigned. Now I see him back at the PM’s side. It seems that he too cannot make up his mind whether to leave the PM or to stay. Or is it that the man enjoys being seen rubbing shoulders with the high and mighty (cracking a joke for Uhuru Kenyatta as seen in a recent TV clip, and all) that he cannot bear NOT to be at the PM’s side no matter what!!!
Salim "on-and-off-and-on-again-spin doc of the PM" Lone

The good book says that a double-minded man gets nothing.

In any event we are the sum total of our decisions and the sums are totaling rather fast for one Raila Odinga, the right honoroable Prime Minister of the republic of Kenya.

Did you see...
Salim Lone denied this exclusive Kumekucha story about the time he fled Kenya.

No Meeting as Kibaki Call Raila, ODM's Bluff

Peddling the word crisis does not necessary create an image of one. And now those who have been carelessly and disrespectfully bandying words at Kibaki have found their match. Kibaki the shrewd politician has come out with all guns blazing and there is no place to hide. ODM and its hirelings are toasted.

First the President has categorically made clear it there is no CRISIS, real or imagined. All Kenyans must know who is in charge and make no mistake about it. Kibaki has reminded Kenyans once more of his signature tune and declaration that "corruption will now cease to be a way of life in Kenya". That tempo was set in 2002 and after more than 2000 days, the gestation period is over. Heads will and must roll now.

Make no mistake, Kibaki is held hostage by no corruption networks/sharks. For those doubting Kibaki's brand new resolve to eradicate corruption once and for all are yet to come to grip with his determination to clean Kenya and bequeath her new constitution as the template for his LEGACY. There is no bigger scandal than Anglo Leasing and Kibaki learnt his lessons hard and painful.

Woe unto those who said that rhetoric about corruption and good governance does not make an entertaining national circus. Well, hear and read for yourself from the horse's mouth lest you loose the gist and substance in translation:

"Dear Kenyans, first and foremost be reminded of the basics and know that I was duly elected (the PORK) and then signed NARA on behalf for GorKi.

I want to take this opportunity to outrightly dismiss careless and disrespectful suggestions that I have been SLEEPING and cannot CO-ORDINATE AND SUPERVISE affairs of state, leaving HOME AFFAIRS aside.

My cabinet has become even stronger. We now don’t tolerate GRAFT - anybody stealing from the citizens children freely will be dealt IMPUNITY, I will came out strongly to terminally rectify any attempt before it gets out of hand. My Government will move swiftly with bold, decisive and transparent steps to avoid a crisis as has been demonstrated recently.

We have opened our MARKETS and will continue to give away LABOUR, your thirst for work will be taken care off. First as a thank you to our partners doubling THE DOLE during this last EL NINO hunger compared to the normal seasonal HUNGER periods that we live with every year and second for the ROADS we receive that opens further our markets and RESOURCES to our brothers in the west and at an accelerating pace to the new brothers from the EAST.

Now you can see our new brothers in the deepest part of our former agricultural sacred lands prospecting for minerals. We are planning to open Mandarin classes in almost all villages so that it could help YOU SERVE them better.

Transportation is on the MEND, the railway will be soon moving again and be back ON THE TRACK after our very own HARD WORKING Kenyans took possession of it from the government, cleaned it of its land, “lazy employees” and other assets which it could not manage. They will be selling it back to wanainchi having been CLEANED through our thriving STOCK MARKET. We will now pick up the pace of PRIVATISATION as a means of RELIEVING wanainchi their burdens.

To the EDUCATED fleeing in droves to use their potential in the WEST, there are some who claim CORRUPTION AND NEPOTISM have REPLACED RELIGION in my Government, I Emilio can assure you those are things of my PAST, and as I promised when I was sworn in -”serikali ya ufisadi" will continue to provide the LEADERSHIP YOU HAVE BEEN USED TO.

My Government is even getting stronger as you see new members joining we strive to continue changing Kenya to our image even after I pass the torch of state to our very enthusiastic NEW YOUTHFUL LEADERSHIP.

With those few words let’s all stand up and join hands together singing kazi iendelee to the 65% unemployed. Thank you."

Political Chess: Spoiling for Ellusive Divorce

Traffic to this site has shot up dramatically and I am also reliably informed that newspapers in Kenya are selling like crazy over the last week or so since the dramatic events of Valentines day. But what do you expect when a deadly game of political chess is unfolding before our very eyes, whose outcome could easily bring back chaos to Kenya? There is no doubt that Kenyans are very concerned about what is really going on with the grand coalition government and the possible implications of that government going belly up on us.


ODM’s brilliant political maneuver whose objective was to position Raila Odinga as a champion fighter against corruption in sharp contrast to lethargic Mwai Kibaki was well executed but did not quite work according to plan. One of the things that went terribly wrong was that Kenyans were quickly able to read the real motives behind the actions of ODM’s Raila Odinga. That is NOT good because the first rule in these kinds of political games is that thou shall never show the fish the hook. I mean how do you expect fish to bite when they can clearly see the hook?

The fact that the press was able to swiftly read the political game plan here is clear testament to the fact that the Kenyan press has matured tremendously from the days of blindly reporting what the politicians say at press conferences and political rallies to deep and instant analysis of the dangerous cards being played under the table. The cards under the table are usually the real news.

The other thing that went wrong was that President Kibaki did not receive the strong rebuke from the Kenyan public blaming him for condoning corruption amongst his ministers. In fact Kenyans have completely ignored the big elephant in the room.

But what I find even more fascinating is the fact that opinion is divided over whether what Raila and ODM are doing is above board. Those from the old school are livid and are certain that forcing a general election is not very different from a military coup like the one Raila helped organize in 1982. Their argument is that anything that destabilizes the country is dangerous and certainly NOT acceptable. More so if there is the possibility of it resulting in blood-shed. The Prime Minister’s handlers seem to have taken note of this and the tone of recent statements from the deputy leader of the party and others seem to be designed to downplay the instability being caused. On the other end of the scale are Kenyans who believe that in competitive politics, anything goes as long as it is NOT illegal.

A so-called leaked confidential document from ODM that a reliable source supplied me with last night made for some very interesting reading. The document indicates that ODM are keen on forcing a general election not later than Feb 2011. My hunch is that the dossier is fake. But to produce such a document and convince people one always needs to mix facts and reliable intelligence with whatever it is you want to “plant” in the minds of the public. I am convinced that the consensus within ODM insiders is that Raila’s presidency can only succeed if early elections are called and the date they have in mind is not later than Feb 2011.

My personal view is that Raila Odinga’s best chance to be president has passed. The truth is that even if general elections were called today, the ODM captain will not ascend to the presidency. My position is that Raila Odinga will remain the best president Kenya never had. That is a very sad fact because the truth is that Mr Odinga won the 2007 general elections.

The dangerous thing here is that the PM and those close to him have still not sobered up from the heady support Raila got in 2007. One of the reasons for that support was a strong anti-Kibaki vote. Raila handlers seem oblivious of the fact that things will change dramatically when Kibaki is not a candidate. In fact if ODM strategists continue pushing their luck they could easily end up handing over the 4th presidency of Kenya to a nobody who will benefit enormously from a strong anti-ODM wave.

But what should really be of great concern to Kenyans is the whispered ‘foreign input’ in the attempted ODM coup of government. There are those whop believe that President Kibaki is not fit run government, especially at a dangerous time such as this when there are so many challenges facing the country. Simply put the ship called Kenya is in extremely rough waters and the only way she can have a fighting chance of steering through the danger is if the old, slow tired, lethargic captain is removed and a younger more alert one assumes command. It is whispered that many foreign governments with delicate interests in Kenya share this view and would be delighted to see a change at State house. It was not lost on close observers that major foreign powers issued carefully worded statements after the Valentine day events that seemed to lean in favour of Mr Odinga and the action he had taken against corruption in government.

Some naïve Kenyans think that the days of foreign powers sponsoring political changes in third world countries are over.

Lastly the way President Kibaki has handled this crisis has confirmed that those of his critics who say he is unfit to rule have a point. The effect would have been much better if he had done nothing on Valntine’s day and just kept his ministers in office. In any case he has no powers to retain William Ruto in office since Ruto is in government courtesy of Raila Odinga’s half of government. The powers the current president of Kenya has are such that the holder does not need to rush around issuing statements and trying to prove that they are powerful enough. That kind of action only makes them look weak and unsure of themselves and the authority they wield.

And so the deadly game of political chess continues. How will it end? Who will win? Even folks who recklessly like making predictions like this blogger cannot hazard a guess this time. Let’s just wait and see shall we? I will of course keep you posted.

The imminent resignation of William Ruto

Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Nominated MP & Rift Valley 'Governor' Musa Sirma and suspended Agriculture minister William Ruto

The Kibaki succession is about to claim its next victims. Kenya is suddenly too small to hide anywhere.

After a week of exciting political shadow boxing, the two principals are due to square-off face to face this Sunday.

Interesting political times lie ahead and I can already forecast that the cabinet tenures of William Ruto and Sam Ongeri are no longer tenable. Will they wait till Sunday or will they resign to pre-empt the inevitable?

The Prime Minister's unprecedented action to suspend two ministers accused of corruption over the weekend has produced the desired political effect.

First, the normally laid back and timid president was compelled to swiftly react to the suspensions and three days later, he is still issuing statements from State House to reassure the public and others that all is well in the coalition. Secondly, the suspension also triggered a flurry of political upheavals locally, seeing that both PNU and ODM National Executive Committees calling meetings. Religious leaders have not been left behind. Thirdly, the international and local media have become very excited and the story has been headline news for four days running. Fifthly, and perhaps most importantly, it has raised the profile of Raila Odinga among Kenyans and international development partners that he is indeed committed to fighting against grand corruption in Africa. Even the US State Department issued a statement urging the two partners to work together in order not to derail constitutional reforms or the fight against corruption. Powerful people may have made diplomatic phone calls between Nairobi and Tokyo.

Having said that, and speaking as a one with their ear on the ground, and unless a miracle happens, I do not think William Ruto will still be Agriculture minister by this time next week. Neither will Ongeri be Education minister by then. If they do not step aside for three months (which is what ODM wanted), then they most certainly will be reshuffled to other ministries (PNU’s preference). Whichever way it ends up, something must move, will it be the collapse of the coalition? I do not think so.

But what happens to Rift Valley’s self-proclaimed and proud Kingpin William Ruto? Will he take a transfer or a suspension or a sacking lying down? Unlikely. I do not think Ongeri has the political legs to resist anything but for William Ruto, it is a different story. Rather than step aside, William Ruto may step down as Minister, and follow that up with resigning from ODM.

Ruto is certain to want to show his political muscle and he may even resign his seat in ODM and quit the party before the president and the prime minister square off on Sunday. There are no official secrets in the GCG and it may even be that William Ruto has already been told to prepare for an exit and prepare himself for a soft landing. No other landing can be softer than dealing the ODM a body blow.

Ruto’s departure from ODM will mark the end of a very eventful marriage, but that is a story for next week. In case he defects, Ruto will necessitate a by-election in Eldoret North and he will most certainly be re-elected on UDM ticket. (Remember it is only the PM who has done this before, when he quit FORD-K for NDP in 1997). Ruto may want to shatter this record.

This will also mark the official launch of Ruto's presidential campaign, modeled along the lines of a similar campaign by Kalonzo Musyoka three years ago. Howerver, the big question remains: Is PNU honest with Ruto? Is PNU willing to nominate him back to the GCG cabinet? Who will be sacrificed for Ruto from among the PNU ministers? Perhaps Ali Mwakwere's loss of petition is god-sent for PNU. But then again, will Coast accept their docket to be given away? Will Ruto's political constituency, meaning supporters, local councillors, MPs want to defect en-mass with him, or will they bid their time until the parliament is dissolved?

In replacing William Ruto, ODM may choose to test the resolve of the William Ruto group by offering the Agriculture docket to someone like Isaac Ruto or Joshua Kutuny. Politics is a game of chess and a cabinet post in Kenya's government carries huge fringe benefits more so if it is the Agricultural docket which is the largest docket of those that ODM got in the power sharing arrangement. If a Ruto supporter accepts to be reappointed as Agriculture minister, and they are put on the campaign trail in Rift Valley, this will seriously complicate Ruto’s presidential campaign that has been largely hinged on galvanising ethnic support. ODM may even choose to move Ruto’s friend and comrade Najib Balala to the Agriculture docket and give Balala’s tourism docket to a Rift Valley politician like Musa Sirma. Semeni n’gweee?

To be continued............

Meanwhile, why is everyone talking about three months suspension. Why not two months or four months? Has this got anything to do with an earth shaking announcement from the ICC, expected to be made in the coming weeks?

Post written by Phil and posted by Chris for technical reasons.

Kibaki Leads from in Front, Declares No Crisis

Annan ni nani? Well, there must be ANNANMAGIC, just mention Kofi's name and things start moving or so it seems. Now this mongrel called dialogue has been invited to the top table on Sunday.

While all Kenyans get consumed with cheap politics, HE Kibaki has reminded those who care to listen that THERE IS NO CRISIS. President Kibaki has reminded all and sundry that his priorities remain fighting corruption (since 2003) expanding programmes to create jobs for the youth (since 2003) and singular focus to address the needs and improve the welfare of all Kenyans.

Above all else Kibaki has staked his glittering legacy on a new constitution. What more can you ask of a selfless leader? Speak of leading from in front and my example and that is Kibaki for you.

Grand Collision: Meeting Off, Political Heat Up

Updates: PC-PS transition
Meanwhile the predictable PC/DC-PS transition here we come: 75% of the new acting PS are ex-provincial administrators: Mondoh, Ndolo and Mr Kiritu Wamae. Smell a rat?

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Liver juggling must be such a difficult yet basic task! If somobody shadow boxing or seeing double? Well, a mirage is an apparent oasis to the thirsty.

Bring the heat on. NA BADO.