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Sunday, May 13, 2007

Things Happening In Magarini That The Newspapers DID NOT Write About

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I’ve just gotten back from a quick trip to Magarini constituency, I’ve never seen such extreme poverty in my life (but that’s a story for another day.)

After the visit and interviewing quite a number of locals on the ground, I have no option but to fully agree with the sentiments of our regular commentator, Phil who recently wrote;

Chris, instead of analyzing the stakes at this by elections, you have conveniently forgotten to tell us that state resources are being abused in campaigning for the NARC -K candidate and that government ministers are abusing their official privileges to openly campaign for Mr. Kombe Harrison?

Don’t you think we already know who the winner will be? And that our own ECK is a complete toothless bulldog, especially when the ECK Chairman is himself campaigning to have his own tenure renewed by the President?

This can hardly be called democracy but they are the same tricks which sustained Moi for 24 years (including 10 years in multi-party era) as a minority president.

It is difficult to see how the government will lose when so much money has been poured (even title deeds distributed).

Still there are a number of very strong anti-Kombe forces and now the big question is if they are enough in number to turn the tables on the incumbent. My personal opinion from my visit yesterday is, probably not.

President’s Kibaki’s handlers are many things, but they are not stupid and it is clear that they want to giove the impression that most of the country is with them.

I’ll be delighted if I’m proved wrong in this assessment. So delighted. Well, Monday’s just a few hours away and many of you will be reading this when it is already Monday.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Wife cuts off husband's penis flashes it down the toilet.

The surprising real reason why more and more Kenyans are having steamy extra-marital affairs

Woman Murders Her Best Friend To Steal Her Husband As Science Proves That It Is Deadly For Women To Have Casual Sex

How Kenyans can now easily start a lucrative Internet business from any remote part of Kenya for only Kshs 100/-

Saturday, May 12, 2007

Which ODM Presidential Candidates Have A Plan "B"?

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Which ODM presidential candidate has a Plan “B” and who does not? Analysts will tell you that both Raila and Kalonzo have too much riding on the forthcoming elections that they both have elaborate plan Bs, should anything go wrong within ODM.

But to be fair to the two gentleman, they are not the only ones. Every serious politician has a plan B and not just these two. And that Plan B is what we need to watch very carefully because it is what could clinch this coming elections.

Let me remind you of what happened in 2002. Late into the year, in fact as late as September, the two main serious contenders in the elections were Kanu and Mwai Kibaki’s NAK. It was only well after the famous September 2 “Professor kimya” presidential nominations at Kasarani that Raila led a number of leading politicians out of Kanu. These politicians did not join NAK. What actually happened is that a new entity NARC for hurriedly formed using Charity Ngilu’s registered party and many politicians from both NAK and Kanu joined the new entity. Others stayed put in both parties.

All signs on the ground are that we are headed for a very similar Grande finale. Both Narc Kenya and ODM Kenya have serious “earthquakes’ happening as you read this and it is anybody’s guess what will end up happening. However chances are very high that disgruntled elements from both Narc Kenya and ODM-Kenya will join forces in the much talked about third force that could carry the day in December 2007.

That is the reason why it is premature and much too early for folks to start talking about their preferred presidential candidates. The Magarini constituency by-elections slated fro Monay will give us a pretty good idea of possibilities for December.

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Monday Is The Acid Test As Magarini Goes To The Polls

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I keep on saying in this blog that the stakes in the forthcoming polls are so high that they have never been this high, ever. The truth is that there are quite a number of people, who need to put just one foot wrong and they will be behind bars come January 2008. They know this, and you can be sure that they do not get much sleep these days.

Keen political analaysts agree that all the signs are there that the ordinary mwananchi is coming to his own and demanding more and more from our leaders. This is one trend that has caught the Kibaki administration completely unawares and to this moment they still do not honestly understand what the problems is.

They have dished out title deeds, they have re-opened factories (some of them commercially unviable) and recently they have promised free secondary school education. They have done everything they know top do and yet to them the ordinary folk are just being incited by rubble rousers in the name of leading ODM presidential candidates.

Actually what they have not seen is exactly what the King of France did not see right up to the storming of the Bastille prison (that was the beginning of the French Revolution). Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that a guillotine or firing squad is on the way for those who have looted and raped Kenya. What I am saying is that the ballot box will shock many in this year’s general elections.

Just watch the Magarini by-elections slotted for Monday and you will get a glimpse of the phenomenon that I am talking about. The coast province has always been a happy hunting ground for President Kibaki, but this time around, something has changed. I have no idea what reason his handlers are giving for it but I submit it is simply that the people are not the same and they shall never be the same again. From now on it will be a wee bit harder to cheat the masses with abandon. Even people who claim large following amongst the masses like Hon Raila Odinga need to be very careful. It is no secret that the Langata MP told the masses a lot of lies about the proposed new constitution and recently he told another one when he said that he would finance his programs using looted cash brought back. Thios is a lie because common sense tells you that you do not budget cahs that is in somebody else’s pocket, especially when it I obvious that the person will resist any recovery attempt on the cash.

Watch this space starting Tuesday because we will analyze what I call the warm up, better than any Steadmann poll in telling us exactly what the ordinary Kenyan on the ground is really thinking of doing come December 2007.

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Friday, May 11, 2007

Kalonzo Musyoka Hits Out At Raila

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Kalonzo Musyoka collected his nomination forms for the presidency this morning (Kenyan time) from the ODM headquarters and had two interesting comments to make.

Firstly he said that although he was the last to collect the forms he was following the Biblical principal. He was clearly referring to the place where the Bible says that the first shall be last and the last shall be first. Insinuating that in the ODM presidential race, he was bound to win now that he was the last to collect the nomination forms.
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Also published today

What job is Kibaki planning to give Moi now?

Quip of the day
Whenever Kumekucha starts discussing tribalism he is taking a cheap shot at a certain prominent tribe in Kenya.
Regular reader of this blog who Kumekucha has a crash on
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Then he complained, without mentioning names, that it was wrong for somebody to claim that they were the front-runner when they knew very well that it was yet to be agreed on at party level on who was going to be the flag bearer for the presidency.

It is clear that Kalonzo was referring to his main rival for the ODM presidential ticket Raila Odinga, whose campaign has gone into overdrive ever since the launch of his vision at a well attended function at the KICC Plenary Hall last Sunday.

In a way it was inevitable that Raila's aggression and stepping up of his campaign after the launch was bound to cause jitters amongst his colleagues within ODM. There are those who would argue that it may not be a good idea to campaign so aggressively before the party officially names its' flag bearer. But those who would argue in this way have absolutely no experience in the way primaries are usually run in other countries. In fact on many occasions the fight for the party ticket ends up being tougher and more bruising than the presidential elections proper. That's politics and that's democracy.

However the concern of Musyoka and his handlers is that in a country which is still very new to presidential elections, let alone presidential primaries within a party, some comments could mislead the masses into believing that a candidate has already been agreed upon. Indeed even Raila handlers believe that the early Steadmann polls put Kalonzo ahead of their candidate and even gave him a strong showing in Nyanza because most believed that Raila would support Kalonzo to be the ODM presidential candidate.

Whatever it is that Kalonzo had in mind while making his comments this morning, it is bound to cause lots of controversy in the coming days and lots of barbs are expected to fly between the two camps as a result of his remarks.

I find it hypocritical and usually fight the urge to throw up whenever these two gentlemen give their plastic smiles and hold hands in front of press cameras when we all know that both are eyeing each other's jugular. Most of all Kenyans would wish for an honest president and not a pretender.

So Hon Kalonzo and Hon Raila please stop pretending. You are abusing our intelligence. Those tensions behind closed doors, which we all sense when the two of you are together, should now be made public. We want to know the issues (or are they too personal?) we want to know just how bad things are between the two of you. We are tired of these plastic smiles. By the way both of you do not smile with your eyes—a clear sign of a forced smile portraying insincerity. The good thing about President Kibaki is that he rarely attempts to smile in the first place, I dare say that in this case he is the most sincere of you three. At least we know him and his weaknesses. Better the devil we know than the angels we have never really gotten to know and who love to give us false plastic smiles.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

What Job Does Kibaki Have In Mind For Moi?

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President Kibaki was on the campaign trial in Rift Valley today even as reports of fresh tribal clash flaring up in Molo, came in. The president took time to pay glowing tribute to retired president Moi and suggested that a lot more public institutions around should be named after the retired president (are they not more than enough as they are?)

Elsewhere President Moi was presiding over some nurses' function.

Now is this a coincidence or is not the usual Moi tactic of preparing somebody for public office, in this case himself?

Now it is no secret that President Kibaki had planned to appoint Moi as special peace envoy in the region on behalf of the country. But Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju in a major diplomatic and protocol goof made the announcement a little prematurely. A minister can surely not appoint a former president, which is what Tuju wanted to do.

Most likely the Moi appointment would be of an international nature and could come even before the general elections slated for December this year.

Insiders insist that one of the sources to finance his re-election bid that President Kibaki is really looking up to is the Moi Family fortune. The Moi Family Fortune is estimated to be in excess of 4 billion US dollars, which would make Moi and his son, Gideon the richest and second richest Kenyans in that order and amongst the richest Africans south of the Sahara. It would also put former President Moi's personal worth a notch higher than that of the late president of the mineral rich Congo, Mobutu Sese Seko.

By the way rumour has it that Kibaki handlers are seriously looking into the arithmetic possibilities of appointing Gideon Moi the running mate to President Kibaki. Party affiliations are not worth the paper they are printed on in Kenya and Gideon can easily become a member of Narc-Kenya before you can say "no way." However the decision cannot be taken before the ODM presidential candidate is decided. The idea would be to completely neutralize ODM-Kenya influence in the expansive and MP-rich Rift Valley province. Winning Rift Valley is strategically important for any presidential candidate because it would assure them a numerical advantage in terms of MPs.

Moi and Kibaki handlers are hoping (and are in fact almost sure) that the ODM ship will self-destruct the minute the party presidential candidate is announced and want to see how the pieces and debris regroup before making their move. However I can report that the mood is one of over-confidence and certainty that Mrs Lucy Kibaki will not being overseeing any sudden urgent packing at State House come January 2008.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Is There Enough Tribal Intermarriage in Kenya?

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Regular readers of this blog know that one of the reasons why we have picked up so many enemies so fast is because I have vowed to fight tribalism amongst Kenyans with all my strength and resources. One of the ways of doing this is by discussing sensitive issues openly.
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Also published today;

Idea that will triple rate of economic growth

Quip of the day;
All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others.
From George Orwell's political classic, Animal Farm.
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It is a well-known fact that communities that do not intermarry usually have great difficulties settling in foreign neighborhoods. One example here are the Somalis, mainly from war ravaged Somalia who have in recent years spread out all over the continent and can now be found in large enough numbers in virtually any African country you care to mention. What has happened is that there has been very serious tension that has even led to killings of Somalis in places like South Africa. One of the reasons for the tension is that these guys are loners and NEVER intermarry. What does that tell the neighbors?

Even in Kenya we have some certain communities that have no problem intermarrying with other tribes and have therefore easily merged into communities countryside while there are others whose romantic love is selective and they only fall in love within carefully demarcated tribal boundaries.

One tribe notorious for intermarriage that deserved to be commended are the Luhya. The Luhya have managed to penetrate even tribes that shun marriage to other tribes (whose identify I shall not reveal for security reasons—my personal security that is).

I stand to be corrected but explain to me how a Kenyan living in Nairobi and working in an office where most tribes are represented and visiting social spots where all tribes are represented can end up only dating their own tribe and eventually getting married to an individual from their tribe? The same happens in Mombasa, Kisumu and every major urban center in Kenya.

It gets worse, Kumekucha is unfortunate enough to know some certain undesirable elements who have fun with other tribes basically wasting other Kenyan's time and then end up marrying their own tribe. One notorious man I know (who calls himself my friend) knows exactly which tribes to go to to satisfy his enormous sexual appetite. He says mostly Kambas and tribes of the Coast are ideal for this. Imagine what I feel for all those beauties many of whom were very serious and looking forward to marriage. There should be a law where a jilted woman or man can sue for tribal discrimination.

There has been this argument that I am sick of hearing, which goes something like this. This guy comes from a very large tribe in Kenya and the reason why he ends up marrying from his own tribe is because they are the majority and therefore using the simple law of probability in mathematics chances are highest that he will end up with a lady from his own tribe, Incidentally those who recognize this tribe also know that the same tribe used this same excuse when it was recently revealed in parliament that most public appointments in the Kibaki administration hail from that particular tribe.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

This Idea Will Triple Economic Growth

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Focus On General Elections 2007

While the Kibaki administration has been boasting about a 5.8 per cent growth in GDP neither the government nor other leading opposition figures contesting the presidency has put some serious though into an issue which if resolved easily has the potential of tripling our annual economic growth and GDP, thus dramatically revolutionizing the lives of many Kenyans.

Admittedly Raila Odinga touched on this issue briefly at his launch but obviously not enough though was put into how the problem can best be solved.

This is the problem of water. Womenfolk in many parts of the country usually spend up to three quarters of the day fetching water. Even in major urban centers water is a serious issue and has caused untold suffering to millions of Kenyans who regularly contract serious diseases that can be traced to water-borne sources.

No administration since independence has attempted to tackle this problem seriously and yet the solution is fairly simple.

The truth of the matter is that the country receives much more than adequate rainfall every two years or so and this applies to virtually every corner of the republic. In fact there are some parts of the country that receive floods annually. And yet we still claim to have a water problem in Kenya. Actually the problem is that we are not organized and do not want to think outside the box the colonialists left in 1963. So when you mention water, all that people think of is sinking an expensive borehole. Incidentally scientists now warn that water table resources are being overexploited and are close to depletion in many parts of the world and if the trend continues the consequences could be catastrophic.

The simple solution to our water problem is rain harvesting. This is a more environment friendly option and can easily be practiced on a large scale countrywide. Interestingly it has already been done in other parts of the world with great success. The idea would be to harvest the rain and build large enough storage facilities to be able to store supplies that would easily last until the next rain season, even if it is delayed as it quite often happens.

The technology for this is fairly simple and mainly involves equipment for filtering and storage as well as simple chemicals to treat the water for drinking.

Women are an extremely active group in the Kenyan population and freeing them from hours of water fetching will allow them to engage in other commercial activities, which can only uplift the living standards in millions of remote homes countryside.

While it is not a bad idea to discuss complex issues like tax and fiscal policies of presidential candidates, it would be useful if they would first resolve how they are going to tackle very basic issues that affect virtually every Kenyan like water.

Incidentally there is no reason why rain harvesting cannot be done in major cities like Nairobi and Mombasa that also have serious water problems. Legislation can even be enacted to ensure that every commercial building is self sufficient in water through harvesting and enough water storage within the building.

No meaningful development and advancement can take place in Kenya without this water problem being seriously addressed.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Flight KQ 507 Tragedy Versus Land Clashes In Mt Elgon

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Some readers of this blog have soberly pointed to the fact that although only 9 Kenyans lost their lives in the Flight KQ 507 tragedy, hundreds of Kenyans have died (and are still dying) in the Mt Elgon land clashes and yet the government did not behave the way it did over the Kenya Airways tragedy. As you read this President Kibaki has declared Monday a public holiday and day of national mourning over Flight KQ 507.
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Also published today

Flight KQ 507: Where did the story of the failed engines come from?

Quip of the day:
Every life is precious, In Mt Elgon, Mathare and on KQ as well.
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Admittedly even the loss of a single life should be taken seriously and no doubt those who lost loved ones on that ill-fated crash are still grieving and it would be insensitive for anybody to say what our readers are saying at this particular time. Still it is something that cannot be ignored because the Mt Elgon slaughter has been going on for months now and it is true that we have not seen the decisive steps that have been taken with the KQ issue. Food for thought for the government, this.

But having said that, let us give credit where it is due. The whole KQ issue has been handled with a lot of professionalism that has done the nation proud. If anybody had it in their mind to dent the reputation of Kenya Airways then the very opposite has happened in this case and in the eyes of the world the reputation of Kenya Airways has gone a notch higher.

Let us not forget that there are many airlines who have gone into competition against Kenya Airways and have had to swallow the bitter pill of defeat, even larger and supposedly more experienced airlines, and many would therefore be happy to see KQ put a foot wrong. Fortunately this has not happened in this case.

I was amused when a foreign journalist during one of the press conferences started insinuating that the Kenya Airways pilots may not have been properly trained. KQ CEO Titus Naikuni immediately read between the lines and answered back with such firmness that the correspondent looked visibly embarrassed. We must never forget that it is always assumed by many in the West that Africans are less intelligent and less knowledgeable in virtually everything simply because they are African. This is the propaganda that has been peddled by racists for centuries and sadly some of our own people believe it too, but that is a story for another day.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Flight KQ 507: Where Did The Story Of The Failed Engines Come From?

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CNN, Skynews and a host of other International media have com up with a possible cause of the KQ 507 crash. They all say that a possible loss of power in both engines may have caused the accident.

It is not clear where the source of this information is, although I suspect that it is a civil aviation official within Cameroon who may have heard bits and pieces of the last communication as the flight was taking off.

This is an interesting piece of information because the KQ crash on Abidjan 7 years ago also happened during take off and experts said that the aircraft did not get enough power to take off at the critical take off stage and thus plunged into the Atlantic. A similar fate seems to have befallen KQ 507 if the CNN SKY etc reports are to be believed.

Actually everybody is very anxious for this mystery to be solved and as the days go by it seems that there are more and more similarities emerging with the Abidjan case even though the aircrafts involved were totally different because the earlier case involved an Airbus aircraft.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Kumekucha The Realist

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One excellent thing that is happening in Kenya which has never happened before in history is that we have started discussing issues and putting across serious proposals. That, my dear friends has never happened before. And while the kind of Kenya I and many readers of this blog have in mind is still way beyond reach at the moment, we should not despise the day of small beginnings, because above all I am a realist.
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Also published today

Faulty campaign proposals by presidential candidates

Some innovative ideas to bring change to Kenya: We have plenty of idle land, why not use it creatively?

Quip of the day
Ideas are great arrows, but there has to be a bow. And politics is the bow of idealism.
Bill Moyers
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Obviously there are many of you that are anxious for me to support one of your presidential candidates, but this blog will never do that and please remember that by criticizing proposals, I am NOT against your preferred presidential candidate, in fact my hope is that their handlers can make adjustments so that those ideas are more practical and easier to implement.

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Campaign Proposals From Presidential Candidates Missing Something

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One piece of clear evidence telling you that it is time for a generational change in Kenyan leadership are the recent proposals by both the incumbent and the other presidential candidates. It is all very well to propose populist measures, but nobody wants to roll up their sleeves and find a creative way of financing them, which in my view is the height of irresponsibility.

You don't come home one day and announce that the family holiday will be in some expensive exotic destination when the family has never even had a holiday before in the first place. And you make this announcement when there has been no increase in the earnings of either yourself or your wife. While you will receive wild cheers from the kids, at the end of the day somebody will have to pay the bills. Either that or something will give somewhere.

Kalonzo Musyoka's tax proposals quite obviously aimed at countering president Kibaki's proposal to scrap secondary school education next year said nothing about how the loss it would cause to the exchequer would be made up for. The big danger here is that with the proposals now flying at voters, there is a real possibility of bankrupting the country (and we have not even factored in corruption because whether you like it or not somebody somewhere will have to put their dirty paws into the treasury cookie jar and steal public funds. It is like a cocaine addiction, they just "got a have" their fix.)

In my other post today I give an example of an idea that can have great impact on the country and yet be self-financing.

Even Raila Odinga's vow that to improve the standards of living of ordinary Kenyans, his three priorities will be infrastructure, infrastructure and infrastructure, leaves a lot to be desired. We all know that such an undertaking will be terribly expensive, so how is he going to finance it? By taxing the rich more? Fat chance of that being successful because this group will hire tax consultants who will always find a loop hole somewhere that will enable them pay less taxes or simply transfer their parent company to some tax haven. Or simply do what they have always done—bribe the right government officials so that the KRA looks the other way.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

How Land Can Be Used To Solve So Many Problems In Kenya

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It is clear that Kenyans are generally a very hard working lot and all they need is a chance and half an opportunity and they will do the rest.

On the other hand the chief success rule in this life is that one uses what they have. A balding man who wants to catch the eye of some girl and realizes that they don't have the looks but have a fat wallet will make use of that wallet to meet their objectives.

In the same way the nation of Kenya has plenty of idle labour and plenty of idle land. By making use of these two assets which we have plenty of, we can revolutionize things pretty quickly.

How about launching labour for education or work for education programs countrywide? The idea is to give disadvantaged poor Kenyans an opportunity to further their education through secondary and university level by having special institutions where instead of paying tuition fees, able bodied men and women are admitted and grow food and cash products generally work on some huge tract of land. The harvested food is then sold in the open market to pay for their education and upkeep and cover all costs. Lecturers can be loaned from leading universities and these centers can even be affiliated to existing universities. Growing and selling the agricultural products will also be a practical skill that all the students can pick up whether they are pursuing medicine or law and will help them in the event that they do not quite make it.

Skills required to make such a program successful are not only in growing and harvesting crops, but more importantly in marketing them and getting a reasonable price for their efforts. The basic law of supply and demand comes into play and one has to grow and harvest a product whose demand will be higher than the supply at the time it arrives in the market.

While there is nothing wrong with Kenya wanting to be an industrialized nation, we need to look soberly at what we have on the ground and agriculture can be developed seriously to a level where agri-based industries can also be established to process and add value to the farm produce harvested.

The government can even set up these centers and then get a private sector management team to run it on a viable scale because past experience has shown that it is virtually impossible to get government run programs to pay for themselves.

Such a program would have huge benefits to the country because apart from taking many idle youths off the streets and giving them a second chance to become professionals, it will also boost production tremendously and in the long term bring down the prices of basic food stuffs. Then there is also the fact that the country now has a competitive edge in terms of supplying skilled labour worldwide, which can be sustained through having such programs spread in every province countrywide.

Such programs can also be a practical way of financing free secondary school education rather than the current proposals that would still leave parents burdened with school building funds, boarding fees and other costs much higher than tuition that are involved in secondary schools.

The current approach of financing free education is too dependent on donor support. (In a future post I will talk about donor support, in essence we do not really need it, if we can get our act together.)

Additionally the land can be put to further productive use by, instead of leaving idle land to be grabbed by the rich and powerful, the government giving short-term leases to ordinary Kenyans of say 35 to 40 years. If the recipients are able to generate enough profits from the land, they can then be given the option of purchasing the land at market rates later. Otherwise they will have a limited option or renewing the lease at a higher fee than what they paid for the original contract. These land-leasing rates can be a major government revenue generator and reduce the need or pressure to increase taxes.

This is the kind of creative thinking we badly need amongst our presidential aspirants rather than going for populist proposals that will be difficult to pay for.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Monday, May 07, 2007

What Do The Clues Of The Flight 507 Crash tell Us?

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Too many similarities to the controversial Flight TWA 800 crash

Our worst fears here yesterday have been confirmed and late last night the wreckage of Flight KQ 507 was finally located.

The most striking first clue was the report that the debris was spread over a radius of 300 metres (estimated from the air by the Cameroonian authorities). Kenya Airways chief executive Titus Naikuni made this revelation in the last press briefing of today.

Then Associated Press has also reported that someone who was at the crash site has described the plane as broken into “pieces no larger than a car door.” For a plane the size of the Boeing 737-800, that’s pretty tiny. Footage taken last night in poor lighting from the crash site shown on various news channels all over the world, seem to confirm the same.

Then it has also been reported that the front “nose of the plane" fell head-first and is firmly buried in the mangrove swamp.

What do all these clues tell us?

There seems to be startling similarities here to that of the TWA 800 flight I spoke about yesterday, where investigators said that an explosion of the plane around where the fuel tank (the mid section) when the plane was about 13 minutes into the flight as it was still climbing broke the plane into two. And debris were scattered over a large area, just like the case of flight KQ 507. And then the front part of the plane in such a scenario would continue traveling upwards almost at the same angle the plane was climbing at and then on running out of inertia would tumble down head fast.

Kenya Airways has refused to comment on the possibilities of survivors but it is pretty obvious that this is a highly unlikely possibility here.

It is interesting how so far descriptions of the crash site by Kenyan officials have been deliberately scanty with very few details. The truth is that it is not a pretty site and for starters attempting to count bodies by the number of body bags is highly misleading because the most likely scenario here will be collections of body parts rather than any semblance of a complete body.

Too early to speculate, everybody says, but it seems to me that the evidence so far points to an explosion of some sort. Remember the eyewitness accounts that talked about a large explosion being heard that led to the discovery of the crash site?

Unconfirmed reports also indicate that the it was the MTN crew that was able to lead rescuers to the crash site. MTN is the main mobile telephone company in Cameroon and chances are that they used their network to locate telephones of their senior managers believed to have been on the ill fated plane. It is amazing how much of a mobile phone remains intact even after a major explosion and the sort of impact it must have hit the ground with.

Once again my heart goes out to all those who have been touched by the deaths on flight 507. Pole sana to all. This thing has affected me deeply and I have found it difficult to research or write about anything else, spending most of my time monitoring what is going on in Douala. But alas, life must go on.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Developments in psychology

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Sunday, May 06, 2007

Was Flight KQ 507 Brought Down?

As signs of the aircraft are reportedly found

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Tears came to my eyes when a relative of one of the 9 crew members of the fateful KQ 507 jet aircraft told journalists that he was clinging to the hope that the plane crash landed with minimal fatalities. The tears were because the news coming in from the ground in Cameroon as a large-scale frantic search and rescue effort continues is not good and may not be consistent with the wishes and hopes of this Kenyan and his family whose brother was on the fateful flight.
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Also published today

Controversial Sally Kosgei comment at Raila launch

Quip of the day;
A good conspiracy is unprovable. I mean, if you can prove it, it means they screwed up somewhere along the line.
Line from the main character Jerry Fletcher in the 1997 movie starring Mel Gibson called "Conspiracy Theory."
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This seems to have been further confirmed by an official Douala airport quoted by the authoritative Aljazeera.net who said that 'signs of the aircraft' had been found without commenting further. Read the article here.

Several eyewitness reports coming in, that are being followed up have reported hearing a loud bang. This would suggest an explosion. It is feasible that an explosion of some sort is to be expected when an aircraft this large coming down breaks up on impact with the ground. However what has happened in similar cases in the past is that eyewitnesses have reported a tremor of sorts followed by a loud bang and more tremors and shaking of the ground, which would usually suggest that the whole aircraft came down more or less intact.

In sharp contrast, all eyewitness claims so far, which are too similar to each other to be quickly written off as hoaxes, say that a loud bang was heard. Interestingly this bang was heard over a very wide area. This would also explain one of the reasons why it has been so difficult to trace any debris so far. Implying the possibility that they may have been spread over a very wide area.

The explosion theory also seems to be supported by the initial report given by Kenya Airways when the aircraft "disappeared" in the early hours of Saturday morning. The statement clearly said; the aircraft "had disappeared from radar." This is usually what happens when there is a mid air collision or explosion where the aircraft breaks up in the air. But even more telling was the distress signal the Cameroonians announced that they received. They were very specific that it was an automated distress signal "from a machine and not from the pilot."

There are a few things that can cause an explosion in mid air other than a bomb on board or a missile. In the controversial Flight TWA 800 case where an aircraft suddenly exploded in mid air shortly after take off from New York, the problem was traced to faulty wiring that passed too close to an almost empty fuel tank. Aircrafts fuel tanks are extremely inflammable when they are near empty. Additional safety precautions have been taken since and aircrafts these days have a reinforced wiring systems that avoid at all costs being anywhere close to fuel tanks. Flight TWA 800 was a Transworld Airlines Boeing 747-131 which exploded in mid air in front of several eye witnesses on July 17th 1996 during a scheduled flight from John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York headed for Paris, France.

While I would not like to speculate at this early juncture, one cannot as yet rule out the possibilities that Flight KQ 507 may have been brought down by either a bomb or a surface to air missile.

But by whom? And why?

Enemies of KQ and the nation of Kenya have been on the increase in recent times and investigators must take all these facts into account. For instance the airline has won some very ugly turf wars against other major airlines and interests in their highly successful expansion program of recent years that has seen the airline gain a stranglehold over West and Central African routes enabling it to retain its' hard earned image of being one of the very few profitable airlines in the world. An accident of this nature could be used to discredit the airline, which has an excellent image and a good safety record apart from two still unexplained crashes that incidentally both happened in West Africa and close to Abidjan, Ivory Coast.

Then there is the increased use of Kenya by the Americans in the ongoing fight against terrorism and suspected Al Qaeda cells in neighboring Somalia. What keeps on nagging on my mind is the fact that if anybody wanted to target a Kenya Airways plane the area over Cameroon from Douala would be the perfect place for such a mission. It is very remote and consists mainly of very thick forest vegetation that is so dense that search and rescue require flashlights to peer into the undergrowth during broad daylight. Vast tracts of area are virtually inaccessible by a car and besides tracks into the thick bush are rare, let alone roads into most of the bush.

Bereaved families of those involved in their terrible incident will be happy to know that both Boeing (the manufacturers of the missing plane) and the most experienced flight investigation unit in the world, the American National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), have both sent experts to Cameroon to join the search and rescue teams and will be fully involved in the investigations into this tragedy.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

'My Sister Sally Kosgei' Quip By Raila Odinga As He Launches Vision: Sure Signs Of A Coming Crisis

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During the launch this afternoon of ODM-Kenya presidential hopeful Raila Odinga's vision, he at one juncture acknowledged prominent persons who were in attendance at the by-invitation-only function at the Plenary Hall, Kenyatta International Conference Centre (KICC), Nairobi.

He even referred to Sally Kosgei as "his sister." A former secretary to the cabinet in President Moi's last administration, Ms Kosgei has a pending corruption-related case in court.

This remark by Raila draws attention to the huge number of highly corrupt former Kanu people within ODM-Kenya, many of them having firmly entrenched themselves in the party's high command.

Picture a situation where Raila wins the presidency and has to start dealing with corruption, will he be able to go after the corrupt people within ODM whom he has promised to share power with? Raila vowed this afternoon during the launch of his very organized and well-articulated vision that he would "fight the false god called corruption" with all his strength and the "power of his office", if given the opportunity.

Many of us remember that President Kibaki gave a similar solemn promise in the run up to the 2002 general elections and many Kenyans believed him. Sadly we now know different, not only has the fight against corruption been one of the most difficult things for the Kibaki administration to do, but the massive looting called Anglo Leasing happened during his watch too.

In my view Raila's fight against corruption has failed before it even starts by virtue of the company he keeps in ODM-Kenya. And yet fighting corruption has to be our number one priority over the next 5 years.

Over the next few weeks we will analyze the ideas in Raila's spectacular and extremely expensive vision launch in more detail with emphasis on the "ideas" rather than the candidate as per our brand new editorial policy in this blog.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Saturday, May 05, 2007

Where Is Flight KQ 507?

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(see our breaking news story about this Kenya Airways plane crash in Cameroon last night).

There is something about Abidjan airport in Ivory Coast) and Kenya Airways. In the entire history of this very popular African airline (since inception in 1977 from the ashes of the East African Community owned East African Airways) that is today probably the busiest over African skies, it has had only two crashes. Both have been in the last 7 years and both have closely involved the Abidjan airport.
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Also published today

Why it is so difficult to find KQ 507 even with all the modern hi-tech technology

Quip of the day;
If you are looking for perfect safety, you will do well to sit on a fence and watch the birds; but if you really wish to learn, you must mount a machine and become acquainted with its tricks by actual trial.
— Wilbur Wright (co-inventor of mechanized flight), from an address to the Western Society of Engineers in Chicago, 18 September 1901.
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In January 2000 a KQ flight from the Abidjan airport never fully took off and plunged into the Atlantic ocean killing all but 10 of the 179 persons aboard (it was mostly good swimmers who survived because rescuers arrived a full 2 hours later). Coincidentally several Kenyans whom I knew well were on that flight, including a close friend, John Mugo (a non-swimmer who feared water as I learnt during a trip to Mombasa many years before the Abidjan crash), then Kenya Airways country manager in Nigeria and husband to widowed high court lady Justice Mary Mugo.

Last night a KQ flight that had landed at Douala airport, Cameroon after arriving from Abidjan delayed take off for over one hour because of bad weather. Finally the pilots made a decision to take off. Approximately 5 minutes later, the plane disappeared from radar. This usually means that the plane has broken up in mid air or crashed. As I write this, remains of that flight are yet to be found. I am praying for some miracle that will shock the world but the reality is that the chances of finding any survivors now are virtually nil. Another search for a similar plane involved in a similar accident took 10 days before any signs of the wreckage could be found. This was the Adam Air Boeing 737-400 headed from Surabaya in Central Java to Manado in northern Sulawesi when it vanished in bad weather on New Year's Day this year. The plane made no distress call, although the pilot had reported concerns over the weather. In this case fishermen found bits and pieces of the plane on the beach, including the body of a woman.

KQ 507 had only 9 Kenyans on board. The majority of passengers were from Cameroon (35) India (15), South Africa (7) and 6 each from China, Cote 'd Voire, Nigeria and Britain. Most of the other 17 nationalities represented from both Africa and the West were mostly 1 person from each country. This gives you a pretty good idea of how KQ has grown to be a trusted and reliable airline to persons from literally every corner of the globe.

Relatives of some of the passengers, mainly Cameroonians are said to have flocked at the Douala airport early this morning when the news first broke and were weeping and screaming uncontrollably. Security forces, believed to be mainly Cameroon military officers are said to have handled them very brutally attempting to evict them out of the airport where they had gone in a bid to get information over what had happened. There must have been some complaints that reached higher authorities in the country because later in the day, the same security people were said to be handling the concerned family members and friends of passengers in the ill-fated KQ 507 with much more understanding and empathy.

Kenyan transport minister Ali Makwere who was in Mombasa earlier today (no doubt involved in some Naca-Kenya campaign activities) hurriedly flew back to Nairobi and was at a well-attended press briefing at 3 pm where it was announced that he would be leading a high powered Kenya government delegation to Cameroon to help with the search and rescue and other logistical efforts. Their KQ flight will jet off at 7 am (Kenyan time). The press briefing was addressed by both KQ CEO Titus Naikuni and Transport Minister Ali Chirau Makwere.

So What Could Have Happened To KQ 507?
Those who have flown the 737-800 say that it is a huge and very comfortable airplane because of the added legroom over the earlier 737s. The 737 family is the favored workhorse of commercial carriers the world over although a few unexplained accidents have taken place involving the airline. But this is normal, especially when airplanes are still relatively new and being broken into the market. The 737-800, which is the model that disappeared over Cameroon last night, is the newest in the 737 family.

Officials at Kenya Airways are very tight lipped about this incident but based on the little evidence gathered so far, we can try and piece together the evidence and arrive at some possibilities over what may have happened to KQ 507.

We know that take off was delayed for over one hour because of bad weather, but finally the plane took off. We also know that barely 5 minutes after take off, the plane disappeared from radar.

We also know that the most dangerous times for an airplane is during take off and landing and the vast majority of accidents happened then. It is therefore safe to conclude that KQ 507 never completed take off and never climbed to cruising altitude. Meaning that the bad weather is very suspect in this particular case. Bad weather means heavy rain that limited visibility and heavy strong winds, which could affect a big heavy jet such as this one during take off. Mechanical failure is highly unlikely because the plane was only 6 months old.

Late this afternoon Kenya Airways said that the search had shifted to another area between the towns of Lolodorf and Ebolowa where there were reports that late last nigh inhabitants heard a very loud explosion. If this report is accurate then it would confirm what I have said above. The loud bang would be the aircraft hitting the ground. Usually an aircraft of this size causes a fairly loud explosion.
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Was flight KQ 507 brought down?
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So why would a pilot want to take off in bad weather? Actually pilots do this every day after taking into consideration all factors including safety mechanisms in the plane that assist take off and operation during bad weather that would even include heavy snow. Incidentally Kenyan pilots have a reputation for being especially good at landing jets in snowy and icy conditions despite the fact that their native country never experiences that type of weather.

Many times every day, pilots achieve safe flight in bad weather and so it is unfair to point fingers in the very few one in a million cases when something goes wrong, like it obviously did last night. It is like asking your car driver why they decided to drive the children home in heavy rain and slippery roads and you do so only after an accident has happened that hurt your children.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Satellite Assistance From The US: Why Should It be So Difficult To Find KQ 507 With All The Modern Technology?

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The reason why looking for the wreckage of even a large aircraft like the 737-800 over the terrain it may have crashed in is like looking for a needle in a haystack is due to several reasons. Firstly the area is mostly covered by dense forest so after crashing it becomes very difficult to see anything over the foliage from the air. The fact that the plane seems to have crashed shortly after take off makes matters worse because it means that there was a fair amount of aviation fuel and therefore fire shortly after impact is a high likelihood making it even more difficult to find any remains or wreckage.

There is also the remote probability that the pilots in the last moments of the flight tried to control the aircraft to find some place to bring it down which would put the wreckage anywhere within a huge radius off the flight path and close to where the last signal was received.

The Kenyan government has asked the Americans for help using their sophisticated satellite technology in finding the aircraft. Again because the area is rough, mostly forest terrain, it is also difficult using this technology to see the plane. Satellites do not operate like metal detectors, one still has to scan vast tracts of land in their search and in this case it will be slower because of the factors mentioned which means they really have to zoom in and go over a very large area extremely slowly. It is still akin to looking for a small needle in a very large tract of long grass.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Holiday In The US

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Kenya Airways Plane Crashes in Cameroon (BREAKING NEWS)

Breaking News:

A Kenya Airways flight headed for Nairobi from Douala in Cameroon has crashed in Cameroon with 114 people onboard. The plane was a Boeing 737-800.

The exact crash site is reported to be close to a place called Niete, south of the Cameroonian port town of Kribi. This location is north of neighboring Equatorial Guinea.

Earlier reports from Kenya Airways indicated that the passenger jet had gone off radar at about midnight Kenyan time. This is usually an indication that a plane has gone down. No further details are available at the moment and Kumekucha is following up this story to give you more details later on in the day.

Earlier indications are that most of the passengers onboard were not Kenyan but of many different nationalities from all over the world.

Read Kumekucha's latest report and analysis on what may have happened to flight KQ 507

Was flight KQ 507 brought down?

Friday, May 04, 2007

Raphael Tuju Appointed Narc-Kenya Chairman: What It Means

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In a surprise turn of events, Narc-Kenya yesterday appointed Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju as the chairman of the party.

The appointment and apparent easing of tensions within the party speaks volumes. The first clear message is that based on the enormous intelligence gathering services at the president's disposal the Narc-Kenya high command seems certain that the ODM-Kenya nominee for president is going to be Raila Odinga.
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Also published today

But Raphael Tuju needs to be MP to qualify for VP post

Government withdraws all advertisements from Standard newspapers

Change of Editorial policy at kumekucha

Quip of the day;
An idea that is not dangerous is unworthy of being called an idea at all.
Oscar Wilde (Irish Poet, Novelist, Dramatist and Critic, 1854-1900)
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Going by he nature of Kenyan politics these days the nomination of Raphael Tuju would seem to be an effort to neutralize the Luo vote somewhat. However those who understand Luo politics will tell you immediately that this is something that will not work.

On a positive point it would seem that the president and his handlers have finally realized just how explosive a Raila versus Kibaki battle would be, more so if the radical Kikuyus who hold so much power and sway with the president are given a free hand to run the campaign. What the old men are going to say is pretty predictable and would be the same anti-Luo propaganda that the Kenyatta administration peddled for over a decade. The exact recipe for a very violent election.

However by placing Tuju as the party chairman, the message is that the president is clearly working very hard towards an issue-oriented campaign and there is bound to be a deliberate effort to douse any possible emotional campaign issues. What better way to do this than to have the president's running mate being a Luo?

If this is indeed the thinking close to President Kibaki then I fully support and back what they are trying to do. Over the last few weeks my top priority has shifted from seeing change in Kenya at all costs to doing everything possible to ensure a peaceful general elections. It has become abundantly clear to me that Kenyans are not yet ready to embrace the radical changes that can save them and it is only prudent to accept these changes to filter into the minds and hearts of the public gradually.

And if Tuju will indeed by President Kibaki's running mate, then it means that Raila's running mate in ODM would have to be a Kikuyu. Would Uhuru Kenyatta accept such a position?

Thinking totally in terms of a peaceful election, because the forthcoming general elections with the usual suspects still running is hardly the sort of scenario worth any Kenyan losing their life or being injured, then this balance would eliminate any negative campaigning or opening up of old wounds which would bring chaos.

Of course the best way to avoid it all is for ODM to opt for Kalonzo as their presidential candidate or to go for a compromise candidate in somebody like Musalia Mudavadi.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

But Raphael Tuju Would Have To Win A Parliamentary Seat To qualify For VP

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According to the Narc Kenya constitution, the chairman is automatically the Narc-Kenya Vice presidential nominee. Thus going by the fact that the chances of the party holding any elections before the forthcoming general elections are slim, then it would seem that Tuju is being groomed for the Vice Presidency.

And the man knows how to play politics, at least on a national level. In his acceptance speech yesterday he referred to himself as a compromise candidate and reminded everybody that he has never expressed any interest in the post. An unhappy-looking Mukhisa Kituyi (the first chairman of the party) silently looked on. Afterwards, he had no comments for the press.

However those who understand Luo Nyanza politics will point to the fact that the current constitution insists that for a candidate to qualify to be appointed Vice president, they would have to win a parliamentary seat. Sadly despite the numerous development projects Tuju has initiated in Rarienda, those on the ground insist that chances of his making it back to parliament are nil. In fact Tuju never visits Rarienda these days and has even moved his mother to the city, most probably for security reasons because there is a lot of animosity towards Tuju and his immediate family in Nyanza at the moment that would make even a small campaign meeting anywhere in Nyanza a large scale security operation for Hon Tuju.

The most obvious option would be for Tuju to move to a Nairobi constituency that is Narc-Kenya-friendly.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Government Withdraws Ads From The East African Standard

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It is rapidly emerging that the Kibaki administration has in one short term managed to do more against press freedom than all other previous administrations put together including the dictatorial and at one point extremely repressive Moi era.

The Kibaki government has recently quietly withdrawn all government advertisements from the East African Standard. Those who understand newspaper publishing in Kenya will know that this is a great blow to the country's oldest daily. The government has always been one of the biggest advertisers in the daily print media and this is one of the reasons why Kanu opted to enter the newspaper business in 1983 by acquiring Hilary Ngweno's broadsheet, Nairobi Times and renaming it Kenya Times. In retrospect it was a bad move because newspaper publishing is much more than just gathering lucrative government advertisements for tenders and notices.

Advertisements from the government are extra profitable to newspapers because they do not go through advertising agencies who usually shave off a whooping 18 per cent commission from all the business that they pass on to newspapers. All major spenders have to go through ad agencies for logistical and consultancy support.

In the highly competitive advertising market that is Kenya today, the move by the government could have a serious impact on the group's bottom line if it continues for more than a few months. In other words it is far worse than the raid on the newspaper, which was followed by the burning of newspapers because it threatens the very survival of the newspaper.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Change Of Editorial Policy At Kumekucha

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We have some bad news and some good news for regular Kumekucha readers. Firstly the bad news, which is the fact that our candidate of choice whom we were very sure was going to make a major impact in the forthcoming polls, has pulled out of the race (before entering it). They have opted instead to further their education with a Masters degree abroad (so that educational background will not be a weakness that opponents can pounce on) while planning for a comprehensive 2012 campaign for the presidency.

Some cheeky reader predicted here that our candidate will pull out at the last minute and we will end up supporting Raila Odinga for the top seat. Sorry to disappoint you, because the good news is that this blog will now seek to push the best ideas we had reserved for our candidate to the public domain so as to turn the forthcoming elections into an issues-dominated one.

President Kibaki recently announced free secondary school education, which was Kalonzo Musyoka's idea. The positive aspect here is that it matters little whose idea it was as long as Kenyans can benefit, which in this case will make a huge difference to the lives of many Kenyans when it is implemented.

The ideas we had for our candidate were truly revolutionary and the sort that would make a huge difference to the ordinary Kenyan. Those ideas will now be openly shared here and it is our hope that some of them will be picked up by the presidential candidates and different parties vying for the presidency. This blog will remain neutral and from now on will only support ideas rather than candidates. We will leave the decision on who to vote for to the Kenyan voters.

Newspapers and media houses the world over usually sanction candidates, we will ONLY sanction ideas for a better Kenya.

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Thursday, May 03, 2007

The Kalonzo Musyoka Factor

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A recent quick survey I carried out amongst Nairobi voters brought me face to face with one reality that cannot be ignored. I will present it in the form of a question; how many voters will shift to President Kibaki in the event that Kalonzo Musyoka is NOT the ODM-Kenya presidential candidate and it turns out to be Raila Odinga instead?
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Also published today

Little known secrets about the Safaricom cash machine

Quip for the day;
From my experience the people who really know it all frequently answer questions with the words, "I don't know."
Kumekucha
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According to my survey a sizeable 30 per cent of the vote in Nairobi hangs on the balance and could go either way depending on whether Raila or Kalonzo is the ODM candidate.

I find this analysis fascinating because although Nairobi is not the entire country, past trends have clearly shown that it affects how the rest of the country votes. I would love to do a survey covering the whole country to measure this Kalonzo Musyoka factor, only that I do not currently have the resources or capability of doing so, and besides most of those outside Nairobi do not have access to email.

Kalonzo Musyoka also has a number of other things going for him. One is the powerful support he has from the high and mighty in the country who would favor his candidature over that of Raila Odinga. The truth is that there are still too many Kenyans who are unsettled about a Raila Odinga presidency.

I questioned some of the respondents to my survey as to why they found a Raila presidency so unsettling and their answers were so vague that clearly one has to look elsewhere for the real reason. Most voters said that Raila is not suitable for the presidency (one actually said he is not "presidential enough").

As I have been saying in this blog for a long time now, propaganda is a very powerful tool and it has done its' work pretty well in this case.

Back to the question I started with. These undecided voters waiting for the ODM presidential nominations, are they large enough in number to decide the presidency? Raila supporters say "No" while supporters of Kalonzo say a loud "Yes."

Kumekucha says that this is probably the ideal situation for those in ODM to start considering a compromise candidate that would keep both Kalonzo and Raila supporters firmly in ODM.

(To read more about the Kalonzo Musyoka you don't know, visit our archives by clicking on the link at the beginning of this article.)

Little Known Facts About The Safaricom Cash Machine

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Anybody who is interested in studying business management and strategy will do well to take a close look at Kenya's two cell phone companies namely Safaricom and Celltel (formerly Kencell).

There are many mistakes that Kencell made right from inception the main one being the controversial per second versus per minute billing, but for the purposes of this article I would like to focus on a simple strategy that has worked for decades and for many businesses all over the world, which Safaricom is successfully pursuing.

Let us start in India, shall we. About 3 decades ago everybody in India knew that detergents were for the affluent and the mass-market preferred bar soap. A company called Nirma came along and challenged this long held belief and started manufacturing detergents targeted at the low end of the market. They made a fortune.

Let's come back to Kenya in the 90s. Banks were making easy-no-risk profits from government treasury bills, which at one point yielded returns of up to a staggering 80 per cent. So some shortsighted bankers who believed that the party would never end felt that the low end of the market was unviable to serve and a nuisance. Minimum balances required to maintain saving accounts were steeply hiked and thousands of accounts were closed (many Kenyans could not afford to run current accounts with the steep charges of those days and so everybody used a savings account like a current one). The bankers justified it all with the return on investment calculation per customer. After all TBs as they fondly came to be known were bringing in 80 per cent guaranteed no risk returns. Shareholders enjoying record windfall profits (thanks to the TBs and stupendous bank charges) did not question the long-term wisdom of this strategy.

For a time most Kenyans felt totally frustrated. Smaller banks tried to go for this market but recent bank failures of local banks were still fresh on the minds of many, so it just couldn't fly. Along came a small new unknown bank called Equity Building Society. They carefully targeted customers who required a bank to receive their salaries and then also aggressively went into the financing business for the mass market. The "nuisance clients" that the big banks had chosen to throw out of their banking halls. Within a very short time Equity (which had hurriedly been renamed Equity Bank) had gained the full confidence of the masses. After all people who were able to loan money so easily would surely not collapse, was the feeling amongst the public.

Today you know Equity Bank as the fastest growing bank in the region. But there is a new kid on the block and he's not even a bank.

Investigations by this writer indicate that the new M-Pesa money transfer service by Safaricom is rapidly becoming the most profitable business for the mobile phone provider. But M-Pesa is more than just a money transfer service. You can save money and keep balances in your account without the annoying monthly ledger fees that banks are fond of charging. And there's more; emerging evidence suggests that many Kenyans wary of the insecurity countrywide are now carrying their cash in safaricom sim cards. So even if your cell phone gets stolen, when you arrive where you are going, all you need to do is borrow a cell phone and you can then easily access your M-Pesa account the minute you insert your sim card into it.

For those who understand banking well, you will know that a major challenge for banks has been the question of maintaining branches which has tended to eat up profits tremendously. The situation has not been helped by the poor road networks and the mounting insecurity in the country, which makes every branch outside Nairobi a very high risk preposition. With Safaricom's M-Pesa, the company has a branch in every small retailer in every small town who carries the M-Pesa sign.

My teenage son has this expression which he uses to mean that somebody is so way ahead that nobody can ever catch up. He says, "It's all over." Actually for Safaricom versus the competition, it is all over. Not only is the cell phone company a very profitable communications concern, but now it is also a fully-fledged bank as well, serving a huge mass market.

What this means is that the Safaricom finance department has started doing what banks do. That is customer balances not required immediately are invested elsewhere for hefty returns. How about being in the market for overnight lending to banks and financial institutions?

When the Safaricom IPO finally happens, don't even waste your time looking at the prospectus and pretending to analyze this cash machine.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Will Free Secondary School Education Clinch Re-election For Kibaki?

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Former cabinet minister and MP for Kathiani had an interesting encounter with his constituents in the run up to the 1997 general elections.

At an impromptu meeting at a trading center Retired General Jackson Mulinge tried to reason with the people he had represented for two terms bringing the sort of development in the constituency that had never been seen from all other previous MPs put together. In the Kamba language he counted off his fingers the things he had done for them.
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Also published today

ODM cry foul: Free secondary school education, was our idea, they say

Controversial bedroom scene with powerful Kenyan described

Quip of the day;
What was done in secret will one day be shouted from the rooftops
From the manufacturer's handbook - human race.
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He started with the many roads in the constituency that he had used his influence with Moi to have constructed. There was a deafening reply from the people; "Osa." In Kamba that means "Take It." The people were asking him to take his roads back, pack and leave. They were no longer interested in him being their MP.

The general could not believe his ears. So he mentioned another development project in the constituency, but the same deafening reply came; "Osa!!!" The general's list was long and every time he mentioned an item the reply from a section of his constituents was the same.

It was therefore not surprising when the general lost the elections that year to a political nobody and upstart, Kyalo Kaindi who is still the Kathiani MP to this day having served two solid terms. However people on the ground have assured this blogger that Kaindi is going home although unlike Mulinge, he has nothing to take with him in terms of development achieved at the constituency. Interestingly word on the street has it that the general ha sponsored a certain popular teacher who will be the candidate to beat. For Kathiani constituents, I will be following up that story and will bring it to you here in the near future.

But what I wanted to say is that humans hardly reason when it comes to general elections. Many candidates with excellent development records, or at least with better records that their opponents have lost elections.

The incumbent President Mwai Kibaki, during the labour day made a major announcement that literally affects each and every Kenyan and millions of voters. He announced that tution would be scraped in high schools from the beginning of next year. The message to Kenyans appears to be clear. If you want your children to be educated free in High Schools, then you know whom to vote for.

It is a very brave thing the president has done. Probably one of the bravest things he has ever done in his long political career. It also shows how anxious and keen the president is to avoid the dubious distinction of being Kenya's first one term president.

But the big question is, is it enough to see him safely back in State House.

ODM Cry Foul: It Was Our Idea, They Say

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It is on record that when ODM presidential hopeful Kalonzo Musyoka was launching his presidential bid, top on his list was the promise of free Secondary school education. So it would seem that the president's handlers have stolen the idea from Kalonzo.

This is the exact fear that this blogger had as we were preparing a major strategy for our preferred Presidential candidate. We have a number of brilliant and practical ideas on how the country can tackle her major problems. The huge obstacle in Africa is that everybody steals ideas and then pretends that it was their idea in the first place.

But whether the free secondary school education idea was stolen or not, the big question is, is it enough to see President Kibaki safely back in State House?

We come back to the General Mulinge story told in the previous post. Voters are emotional animals who do very little reasoning. Just looking at most of the comments in this blog, seems to strongly support that thesis. What the means is that the big announcement has changed little on the ground in terms of voting patterns. Kenyans will still vote emotionally come December based on the candidate that they like. And no amount of reasoning will change their minds. It matters little that their preferred candidate stole billions during the Moi days and almost single-handedly (with a few others) took Kenyans back over 20 years from whence it will be virtually impossible to recover.

That is why I view al the slick PR that includes neat statistics of Kenyans who have been lifted out of poverty during the Kibaki administration with lots of skepticism. Such things do not work in politics. At least not in Kenyan politics.