A recent quick survey I carried out amongst Nairobi voters brought me face to face with one reality that cannot be ignored. I will present it in the form of a question; how many voters will shift to President Kibaki in the event that Kalonzo Musyoka is NOT the ODM-Kenya presidential candidate and it turns out to be Raila Odinga instead?
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Quip for the day;
From my experience the people who really know it all frequently answer questions with the words, "I don't know."
Kumekucha
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According to my survey a sizeable 30 per cent of the vote in Nairobi hangs on the balance and could go either way depending on whether Raila or Kalonzo is the ODM candidate.
I find this analysis fascinating because although Nairobi is not the entire country, past trends have clearly shown that it affects how the rest of the country votes. I would love to do a survey covering the whole country to measure this Kalonzo Musyoka factor, only that I do not currently have the resources or capability of doing so, and besides most of those outside Nairobi do not have access to email.
Kalonzo Musyoka also has a number of other things going for him. One is the powerful support he has from the high and mighty in the country who would favor his candidature over that of Raila Odinga. The truth is that there are still too many Kenyans who are unsettled about a Raila Odinga presidency.
I questioned some of the respondents to my survey as to why they found a Raila presidency so unsettling and their answers were so vague that clearly one has to look elsewhere for the real reason. Most voters said that Raila is not suitable for the presidency (one actually said he is not "presidential enough").
As I have been saying in this blog for a long time now, propaganda is a very powerful tool and it has done its' work pretty well in this case.
Back to the question I started with. These undecided voters waiting for the ODM presidential nominations, are they large enough in number to decide the presidency? Raila supporters say "No" while supporters of Kalonzo say a loud "Yes."
Kumekucha says that this is probably the ideal situation for those in ODM to start considering a compromise candidate that would keep both Kalonzo and Raila supporters firmly in ODM.
(To read more about the Kalonzo Musyoka you don't know, visit our archives by clicking on the link at the beginning of this article.)
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We must ask ourselves several fundamental questions Chris.
ReplyDeleteIn the unlikely event that Kalonzo is nominated the ODM-K candidate, and bearing in mind there is no pro-Kalonzo MP in the entire Nairobi province, what is the percentage of votes he stands to loose in the main presidential race? Keep in mind that although all the current Nairobi MPs were originally elected in 2002 via NARC (4 LPD and 4 NAK), the referendum was clearly in favour of orange – with the exception of Dagoretti where Hon. Mugo managed a slim win for Banana. The referendum then was not just to decide a new constitution for Kenya but also deemed by many as a supremacy battle between Raila and Kibaki.
During the last minimum reforms katiba rally at Uhuru Park, Kalonzo opted to depart from the rally prematurely because (can you believe this) he was going to attend his ODM campaign rally in Kuria District. This was interpreted in some quarters that he feared being upstaged by Raila and Ruto who are obviously more popular in Nairobi than himself.
In terms of ranking ODM candidates in Nairobi, you will be surprised to learn that Kalonzo ties with Balala in ranking a distant 4th after Raila, Ruto, Mudavadi – in that order. Picture this and answer yourself in a very honest way; if Kalonzo was to shift constituency from Mwingi to any of the 8 constituencies in Nairobi, can he manage to beat, in a fair contest, the likes of Mwenje (Embakassi) or Gumo (Westlands) or Omondi (Kasarani) or worse still Raila (Langata). Honest answer? I highly doubt it.
Talking of a compromise candidate is also unlikely going by the chest-thumping that has been exhibited by some ODM candidates. One wonders what the hullabaloo is all about, when some aspiring presidential candidates are very uncomfortable to pay a non-refundable Kshs. 2 million nomination fee or, as Hon Gumo would put it, cannot even qualify to be councillors. It is well known within ODM circles, a large number of individuals in the National Executive Committee (NEC) have been planted by the government and also by other individuals whose cupboards are full of skeletons. That’s why only serious candidates are running their own number of secretariats in various locations to confuse government intelligence and moles within ODM-K.
Lastly Chris, you must be aware that President Kibaki himself has never openly declared his candidature for the 2007 polls, let alone the political party of his choice. What if, for example, he announces his own Project Saitoti or offers to step down in favour of one of the ODM-K candidates sometime in the 3rd or 4th quarter of this year? Can Kalonzo turn-down such an opportunity? Where would all that leave ODM-K and your so called Steadman opinion polls? These are possibilities that are not far-fetched and could come sooner than you think.
As an epidemiologist would tell you we are busy contructing elegant counterfactual (what if) models which remains just that, counter to fact. The ODM brigade (read facade) only remains relevant before it faces the hour of reckoning which is soon. At the risk of being tagged a doomsayer I dare proclaim that come that day and your guess is as good as mine. Their goose is cooked, eated, digested and .....
ReplyDeleteKalonzo and his ilk and just masters of grandstanding and brinkmanship. In fact the whole ODM lot are merely expanding their egos by ridding on our backs just like any Kanu derivative (yes Naka-K included). All we are witnessing is excitement produced by motions without any trace of movement. Unfortunately we are all roped in this lame dance without any tunes.
Simon says,
ReplyDeleteWhen KM made this statement, it said it all:
" I know I will be the nominee and I will win, but if the Kibaki wins thats ok too...."
What the f@ck?
In that statement, depending on how you analyse it, KM said if these guys at the ODM dont nominate me, just vote for the sloth.
Can you believe these guy?
Chris there you have it from the guy's own mouth.
From the Daily Nation today.....Conclusion:Kibaki is not the biggest threat there is to ODM (in my opinion,ODM=LDP=New KANU=same old KANU). ODM-ers are their own biggest threat!
ReplyDeleteImpact of Raila vision launch
Story by MUTHUI KARIUKI
Publication Date: 2007/05/04
We have no intention of raining on Lang’ata MP Raila Odinga’s parade on Sunday as he rolls out presidential election blueprint at the KICC, Nairobi. We will not even attempt to drizzle on one of the greatest days of his eventful life. Instead, we will reflect on a number of dynamics of the forthcoming General Election. In other words, the day of Raila’s launch will provide a rare occasion for political meditation.
First, we hope that Kalonzo Musyoka, William Ruto, Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi will all be present in the KICC’s Plenary Hall as Raila launches his bid to capture both the ODM-Kenya presidential ticket and the national presidency itself.
It was Kalonzo who detonated the culture of the spectacular launch when he unveiled his Kalonzo Musyoka Foundation. To Raila’s and Uhuru’s explicit surprise and that of the Narc administration, more than 30 Western diplomats, including the American, British and EU envoys, attended the launch at the Hotel Inter-Continental in Nairobi. It was at this event that both Kalonzo and Raila spoke enigmatically about being able to “die” for each other — meaning to strategically opt out of the race in order to boost the chances of one of them.
But the main reason the large diplomatic corps presence, quite apart from his then commanding lead in the presidential election opinion polls, was the fact that, as Foreign minister, he had mediated the Sudanese and Somali crises and was now establishing a foundation to foster conflict resolution and democratic ideals in Africa.
A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then, not to mention the fact that quite a few bridges have been burnt, too. This was the period soon after the Government’s defeat in the referendum on the Draft Constitution. Two years later, President Kibaki’s economic reform programme has borne fruit. He, not Kalonzo, now has a commanding lead in the presidential opinion polls, followed by Raila.
Raila is the fifth ODM-Kenya presidential aspirant to launch his vision. Besides Kalonzo, Julia Ojiambo, Ruto and Najib Balala have unveiled theirs.
RAILA’S CHOICE OF VENUE, THE KICC Plenary Hall, was governed in large part by the security and comfort, not to mention the focus, of a large contingent from overseas drawn from the Kenyan Diaspora and the Odinga family’s wide network of contacts in foreign regimes and international non-governmental organisations.
Of the big-time political players, only President Kibaki had a key public function in the week leading up to the Raila launch: the Labour Day address to the nation from Uhuru Park, Nairobi, where he waived tuition fees in secondary schools and left the Opposition reeling with the timing and the largeness of his gesture. Raila has commented twice on the President’s May 1 move, both times trying to find fault, but coverage of his reactive remarks has been surprisingly patchy.
The first real jitters of the anxiety about the scale and scope of the Raila launch were perhaps voiced by former Vice-President Mudavadi last week when he suddenly blurted out a warning about a latter-day Idi Amin. And then, speaking in Meru, Kalonzo, now dethroned as king of the polls, finally went into fatalistic mode and actually uttered words to the effect that President Kibaki could well win a second term.
One of the greatest lessons to be drawn from a Raila presidential bid is that the minimum reforms process is not the only thing that stands between ODM-K internal cohesiveness and State House. The most petty and petulant individual jealousies, hates, betrayals, fears and loathing also loom large.
The next General Election is not Yes-No territory. The President is not an overbearing, authoritarian hate figure. He is an economist of the old school who says what he means as well as means what he says. There is no equivalent of the Kanu bogey.