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Monday, May 07, 2007

What Do The Clues Of The Flight 507 Crash tell Us?

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Too many similarities to the controversial Flight TWA 800 crash

Our worst fears here yesterday have been confirmed and late last night the wreckage of Flight KQ 507 was finally located.

The most striking first clue was the report that the debris was spread over a radius of 300 metres (estimated from the air by the Cameroonian authorities). Kenya Airways chief executive Titus Naikuni made this revelation in the last press briefing of today.

Then Associated Press has also reported that someone who was at the crash site has described the plane as broken into “pieces no larger than a car door.” For a plane the size of the Boeing 737-800, that’s pretty tiny. Footage taken last night in poor lighting from the crash site shown on various news channels all over the world, seem to confirm the same.

Then it has also been reported that the front “nose of the plane" fell head-first and is firmly buried in the mangrove swamp.

What do all these clues tell us?

There seems to be startling similarities here to that of the TWA 800 flight I spoke about yesterday, where investigators said that an explosion of the plane around where the fuel tank (the mid section) when the plane was about 13 minutes into the flight as it was still climbing broke the plane into two. And debris were scattered over a large area, just like the case of flight KQ 507. And then the front part of the plane in such a scenario would continue traveling upwards almost at the same angle the plane was climbing at and then on running out of inertia would tumble down head fast.

Kenya Airways has refused to comment on the possibilities of survivors but it is pretty obvious that this is a highly unlikely possibility here.

It is interesting how so far descriptions of the crash site by Kenyan officials have been deliberately scanty with very few details. The truth is that it is not a pretty site and for starters attempting to count bodies by the number of body bags is highly misleading because the most likely scenario here will be collections of body parts rather than any semblance of a complete body.

Too early to speculate, everybody says, but it seems to me that the evidence so far points to an explosion of some sort. Remember the eyewitness accounts that talked about a large explosion being heard that led to the discovery of the crash site?

Unconfirmed reports also indicate that the it was the MTN crew that was able to lead rescuers to the crash site. MTN is the main mobile telephone company in Cameroon and chances are that they used their network to locate telephones of their senior managers believed to have been on the ill fated plane. It is amazing how much of a mobile phone remains intact even after a major explosion and the sort of impact it must have hit the ground with.

Once again my heart goes out to all those who have been touched by the deaths on flight 507. Pole sana to all. This thing has affected me deeply and I have found it difficult to research or write about anything else, spending most of my time monitoring what is going on in Douala. But alas, life must go on.

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12 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  2. And Chris, stop behaving like the kenya government who have now suddenly got on to their feet with crocodile tears while holding hourly press conferences and mobilising high powered delegations to site because 9 kenyans and about 105 foreigners perished in this unfortunate air crash.

    Sorry about all that, but we have to ask, Of what importance are those kenyans who died in Mt. Elgon (about 160 and still counting) and we did not see the same kind of activity from Kenyan government like for the KQ accident? How about thousands others who were deliberately displaced and living like refugees Uganda and elsewhere? Are they not Kenyan human beings? We can compare and contrast but at the end of the day - all kenyan lives have equal value, hence require equal action from government. We havent seen any government official attend a church service to pray for Mt Elgon victims - what a farce!

    Why is Kenya government acting as if it is being pressured by a foreign government?

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  3. Phil that was spot on. Equally you can't fault the Government for going full blast in PR. Image is everything as they won't to parrot and ours is good at projecting itself as the best example and powerhouse in the region. PR is all about sanitizing rot underneath mark you.

    Domestic issues that really matter to the common Kenyan can conviniently be relegated to the back banner. And whocares whether we shout ourselves hoarse? It is man eat man society and the elite will stop at nothing to build a fasle image to stay on top of things.

    KQ is a brand that must be promoted with no resources spared. It has taken ages to build that reputation and the Government would be naive to let it slip giventhat the econmic sea is awash with sharks waiting for our blood.

    But that said the insensitivity shown to our own country men is unforgivable. At the risk of joining the bandwagon and being branded insensitive, I dare say that plane crashes though painful and unfortunate is an elite death that is very foreign to majority of Kenyans till they are personally affected when a close relative is involved. Pole kwa waliokufa na familia zao.

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  4. Chris,
    I wonder how qualified you are to comment on probable causes of the crash. Concentrate opn what you know best and leave the aviation experts to do their work.

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  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  6. I would like to say pole sana to the families that lost their loved ones.

    As said before why does this get far much more attention than Mt. Elgon and all those displaced Kenyans (refugees in their own country). Personally to me this is all a PR campaign by the govt. It's 2007 they need to look good to the intl community therefore in turn to Kenyans at home.

    I say it's a PR campaign because they were given the results of the KQ crash in 2000 but have not released the information to the families that to this day (7 years later) don't know what happened and have had to move on with their lives. I believe Kq 2007 might be subjected to the same. Meanwhile, govt & media will suck it dry for all it's worth. Such a pity.

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  7. Have had to delete abusive ignorant prejudiced comments. I would like to inform readers that an experienced expert in aviation is being consulted for all the articles written here on KQ 507

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  8. Vee,

    Of what use will the report be to the families when they are told it was pilot error or mechanical fault?

    I think Kenyans like whining about reports they will not read or even use for anything.

    If you really cared about the families, you should be trying to find out whether they were compensated for the loss - and again that would still be the biashara of KQ and the families.

    Taabu, that was a good clarification of why the government reacted the way it did with regard to KQ. As for Mt. Elgon, if a bunch of idiots think murdering each other senselessly is what Phil wants the government to hold hourly press conferences for, then he is out of his mind!

    Chris,

    I think you speculate too much and also that the expert you are consulting is a quack, if you asked me :-)

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  9. hakuna mchezo this time around!!first of all pole to the families of those victims befallen by this tragedy,may their souls rest in peace coz they died working for their country...ok back to my point,hii stori ya kunyamaza na info lazima ikome,Elections are around the corner so kibaki better step up his game n tell us what really happened when the info comes through,we dont want another 2000 replay which up to know no one knows what really happened to the KQ flight that crushed off Abidjan.tunataka kujua na lazima tuambiwe this time!!

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  10. Chris,

    As an avid viewer of "Air Crash Investigation" (DSTV) I disagree with you that 300 meters constitutes a large crash site. It's actually a pretty small one indicating a plane coming down intact (ie in one piece) as opposed to one that has broken up due to explosion while in mid flight when you consider the size of the aircraft.

    On a recent episode, Air Crash Investigation covered the mysterious crashes that dogged 737's in the early to mid 1990s. The cause was due to jamming of the rudder which had a tendency to adjust itself (without the pilot touching the control) in midflight (either all the way to the left or all the way to the right). No action any of the pilots attempted to take pull the plane out of its banking (either to the left or to the right depending on the rudder's angle)and then coming down hard nose first would be effective.

    One pilot survived the ordeal and the NTSB later narrowed down the fault to the tendency of the rudder to jam. Naturally, Boeing have always denied that they have such a design flaw and the 737-800 series is supposed to have a modified rudder to overcome the older models weaknesses.

    Due to this Aviation Authority in the US has actually recommended the phasing out of 737s from their skies in 2008. Pity KQ went and purchased one.

    Anyway, like others have commented earlier, let the investigation run its course.

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  11. I also watch those air crash investigations and I believe boeing went ahead and fixed the rudder problem associated with the 737-200s which experienced the rudder jam and reversal due to shock-cooling of the device. I'd tend to believe that weather played a vital role in the crash and that KQ 507 experienced an along-track thunderstorm encounter therefore experiencing high downdraft velocities at the nose which could have sent the airplane into a serious dive especially if the pilots had been pushing the nose down as a result of a preceeding updraft encounter.(Thunderstorms in the mature stage exhibit violent downdrafts and updrafts within the same cell, which can also cause structural failure or stall if the airspeed of the airplane isn't sufficient enough to prevent either.

    Ian.

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  12. Oh! I have no idea why kenyans wiat to be told about the results of these accidents when they can be found online. All one has to do is search for it and publish it somewhere instead of waiting for the government to come out and say exactly what happened. The Abidjan crash details can be found online. I have the report on my laptop personally. If you're interested,LOOK AND YOU SHALL FIND.

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