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Friday, June 02, 2006

The Two Problem Tribes in Kenyan Politics

If A Way Could Be Found To Have Them Withdraw From Politics, We Would Be Able To Achieve A Lot... But Alas, It ain't possible

I have just returned from a visit in the Kenyan Coastal region that has made me look at Kenyan politics from a whole new light.

Usually I love to mingle with the ordinary folks (the majority voters) and listen closely to what they have to say. I had a prolonged discussion with this rather attractive Digo woman, who has just had her fourth child.

She's fairly intelligent and had some controversial remarks to make about Coast politicians. Including one that I am yet to recover from about the late Karisa Maitha having been assassinated because he was well on his way to standing for the presidency. The mother of four was pretty sure about that one and even gave the example of Ronald Ngala (who died in a mysterious road accident on the Mombasa road in the mid 70s which most analysts believe was an assassination). She informed me that the late Ronald Ngala's son, (katana Ngala) now a senior Kanu Coast province politician fears to stand for the presidency saying that he does not want the fate that befell his father to also befall him.

But it was what she said about the Coast being allowed to give the nation its' next president that really struck me. It seems that the view rapidly gathering momentum at the Coast now is that Kenyans will always be making a mistake when they choose a President from one of the "big tribes". Choosing one from the smaller tribes (preferably those ones at the Coast) will be much better for the future of the nation.

What she said next made even more sense. She said that she had gone to school (at the Coast) with students who hailed from the notorious two big tribes that have always caused problems in Kenyan politics. Namely the Luo and the Kikuyu. If a way could be found to leave these two tribes out of politics in Kenya, tribalism and all the current political problems we have would be a thing of the past. She went on to say that by going to school wiuth members of the two big problem tribes, she had learnt that "tribalism" was too deeply entrenched in them and because of this they are actually holding the country back.

No matter which angle I tried to analyze the Digo woman's remarks, I could not fault them.

In the referendum over the constitution last year, these two big tribes were the most responsible for creating tensions and fanning tribal animosity. Had we been in a situation where the Luo and Kikuyu were completely left out of things, we would have been able to analyze the document more soberly. If you look at all the political realignments happening in the country at the moment, they are all happening under the close supervision of these two big tribes.

Historically the whole problem started with the brilliant son of Kenya called Tom Mboya (who wanted nothing to do with tribalism and yet his assassination triggered the worst tribal-based violence in the history of Kenya. Yes, worse than even the so-called tribal clashes of the early 90s which were "political creations."

In sharp contrast the many small tribes at the Coast are very united. It helps that most of them speak one language – Kiswahili – quite well. In fact Coast province is probably the least tribal oriented province in the country.

The Digo woman emphasized her political statements further by proving that she's in fact married to a non-Digo man.

She will never read this post because she has probably never come close to a computer in her life, let alone surfed the net. But I am very grateful to her for the sort of political education I would not have gotten anywhere else.

A Lesson In Political Economics From A Wise Old Man Who Didn't Go To College

As we enjoyed our political discussion with my Digo friend (see later post) in the sweltering heat and humidity of the Coast, there was another man with us who listed quietly and only made the occasional remark.

He said very little about himself except I gathered that he is not a Digo. I estimated his age to be in the early sixties and he was very keen about on listening to President Kibaki's Madaraka day speech.

My Digo friend and I teased him about having received a bribe from Narc-Kenya. He denied it and just said that President Kibaki's knowledge of economics had greatly helped the country's economy and that if we gave him another 5 years the Kenyan economy would be a major force to reckon with in Africa. My Digo friend almost stood up and probably would have had it not been for the small child she was breast-feeding.

She made it clear that there was no way the President was going to get re-elected in 2007. She said the people had made up their minds, Kibaki would have to go.

The wise old man was unmoved and went on making his points quietly and calmly. He lamented that the President's Madaraka day speech in Kiswahili (which he understood better than English) had been so short. That was the only problem he saw with the Kibaki administration, an inability to pass on economic prosperity to the common man. He linked his limited knowledge of Kiswahili to his limited knowledge of what the poor ordinary Kenyan goes through.

I marveled at what I was hearing. I felt that I had no business writing this blog when there were such wise and yet uneducated thinkers out there.

No matter what my political inclinations are, it is a fact that Kenya is now beginning to see the positive results of President Kibaki's economic policies. Those policies which I have deeply criticized in this blog, several times, are just now beginning to bear fruit.

Just to give one example. The Kibaki administration has championed a strong shilling which has virtually wiped out the Kenyan horticultural sector causing thousands to lose their jobs. But it is that strong shilling that has greatly cushioned the nation against the effects or spiraling world oil prices that are playing havoc with the economies of other African countries. As a result the strong shilling has probably saved many more jobs than were earlier lost.

And of course the old man is absolutely right when he points to the weakness of this administration in its' inability to pass on the benefits of a stronger economy to the ordinary jobless, starving Kenyan.

Still Kibaki must go in 2007 and the reigns of leadership must be passed on to a new generation of younger leaders who though inexperienced are bound to have plenty of new ideas.