Election fever 2007 has hit Kenyans in a big way, more so after the pronouncements of outgoing electoral commissioner Samuel Kivuitu.
But even as the country braces itself for the possibility of having its' elections outside the traditional dates in December just after Christmas for the first time since the re-introduction of multi-party politics, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. The main one is that any date outside the traditional dates will mean a much lower voter turn out. And if a lower voter turn out favors the incumbent (and there is plenty to suggest that it does) then this can be seen as way of rigging the elections.
In this article I will give just one most compelling reason why calling elections on any date outside the usual December date will favor President Kibaki. There is no doubt that the President's stronghold is Central province. As the word "central" suggests, Kenya's largest community is centrally located meaning that it will be easy for them to get to their polling stations to vote even if you call the elections for some strange date like tomorrow.
Some Kenyan communities have to travel for a full day to get to their upcountry constituencies where most have registered as voters since 1992. Traditionally this has not been a major problem because election dates have fallen at that time of the year when most Kenyans have to travel home for the Christmas holidays, anyway. Any date outside the usual one means getting time off from employers and then raising the funds to make the trip. Many Kenyans will just not be able to manage this. And neither will the huge army of small traders be able to make the time to be away from their businesses.
The result will be very low voter turn out, which will also mean that it will be easier for the incumbent to achieve the required 25 per cent of the total votes cast in at least 5 provinces.
There are some analysts who believe that elections may be called during one of the school holidays this year, most probably in August (April is to early to put everything into place). Others are even suggesting that it could be called outside school holidays meaning that the country could go to the polls as early as June.
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Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Is Samuel Arap Ngeny The Next Chairman Of The Electoral Commission Of Kenya?
Former speaker of the national assembly Samuel arap Ngeny could be the next chairman of the electoral commission and the man who will be at the helm of the body as the country goes for it’s most competitive and complex general elections to date. Ngeny is also a former MP for Aldai constituency.
If this prediction proves correct then Kenyans have a lot to fear because of the following;
i) It confirms the power and sway one Daniel arap Moi has in the running of the affairs of this country and will also corroborate the fact that he is in fact the chief strategist of President Kibaki's re-election campaign.
ii) The country will have an inexperienced chairman at the helm as it goes into a rather complex and threatening general election with tribal tensions already high and the possibility of a situation that will pit the Luo community face to face with the ruling Kikuyu class in the main showdown for the first time since the so-called "little elections" of 1969 that pitted Jaramogi Odinga Oginga's KPU (Kenya People's Union) against Jomo Kenyatta's Kanu. Needless to say that was one of the most chaotic moments in the history of Kenya.
iii) The replacement of Samuel Kivuitu as chairman will raise the nagging question; what is it about the current chairman that the President and his men are so nervous about and yet Kibaki ascended to the presidency with the same Kivuitu at the helm of the electoral commission? Could it be his impartiality which has been severely tested and tried over time, most recently during the November 2005 referendum over the proposed new constitution, which the government lost badly? Could it be that Kivuitu's impartiality and firmness will not serve the planned strategy and campaign tactics of Narc Kenya well this time round?
iv) The replacement of Kivuitu as chairman will be the latest step in what appears to be a consistent campaign by Narc Kenya to ensure that there is as little reform and leveling of the playing field as possible as we go into the elections. Readers will remember that the same Narc Kenya has consistently frustrated all initiatives at minimum reforms going into the general elections. The really scary thing here is that there are very few other things that this administration has been so consistent at doing.
v) The appointment of the former speaker to the chair will mean that former president Moi needs a man he can trust at the helm and could not have done better than get a man from his own community who already owes the president just too many favors from the past. But the million shilling question is; so that he (Moi) can do what?
If this prediction proves correct then Kenyans have a lot to fear because of the following;
i) It confirms the power and sway one Daniel arap Moi has in the running of the affairs of this country and will also corroborate the fact that he is in fact the chief strategist of President Kibaki's re-election campaign.
ii) The country will have an inexperienced chairman at the helm as it goes into a rather complex and threatening general election with tribal tensions already high and the possibility of a situation that will pit the Luo community face to face with the ruling Kikuyu class in the main showdown for the first time since the so-called "little elections" of 1969 that pitted Jaramogi Odinga Oginga's KPU (Kenya People's Union) against Jomo Kenyatta's Kanu. Needless to say that was one of the most chaotic moments in the history of Kenya.
iii) The replacement of Samuel Kivuitu as chairman will raise the nagging question; what is it about the current chairman that the President and his men are so nervous about and yet Kibaki ascended to the presidency with the same Kivuitu at the helm of the electoral commission? Could it be his impartiality which has been severely tested and tried over time, most recently during the November 2005 referendum over the proposed new constitution, which the government lost badly? Could it be that Kivuitu's impartiality and firmness will not serve the planned strategy and campaign tactics of Narc Kenya well this time round?
iv) The replacement of Kivuitu as chairman will be the latest step in what appears to be a consistent campaign by Narc Kenya to ensure that there is as little reform and leveling of the playing field as possible as we go into the elections. Readers will remember that the same Narc Kenya has consistently frustrated all initiatives at minimum reforms going into the general elections. The really scary thing here is that there are very few other things that this administration has been so consistent at doing.
v) The appointment of the former speaker to the chair will mean that former president Moi needs a man he can trust at the helm and could not have done better than get a man from his own community who already owes the president just too many favors from the past. But the million shilling question is; so that he (Moi) can do what?
The Bishop Margaret Wanjiru Controversy
Anybody who calls a press conference in the course of today is bound to find the attendance a little wanting at least until the Bishops much awaited press briefing is over. Already leading local FM stations have spent hours discussing this controversy and it is clear (even from the number of hits we have gotten on the story in this site) that this is a matter that has generated lots of public attention.
So riveting has this issue been to Kenyans that it has taken off the heat from the recent "earth shattering" pronouncements from the electoral chair to the effect that elections could be called at any time.
Yesterday it became clearly evident that the Bishop, who is never easily flustered, was feeling the heat, as she issued an apology to Kenyans for her reaction to the man claiming to be the father of her children saying something to the effect that, "…the man with hands that look like they have been attacked by jiggers can go and hang himself and the good Bishop will preside over the funeral." The TV stations' News Bulletins have not missed an opportunity to replay that clip captured at her church as she spoke from the pulpit, over and over.
Probably one of the reasons why this little drama has attracted so much attention from Kenyans is the unexplained mystery of how it escalated into the heated controversy it is today, in the first place. Especially because Bishop Margaret Wanjiru does not deny her humble, controversial past. She even admits that she once washed toilets to earn a living. Neither does the Bishop have any qualms over confessing that before she became a Christian, she was a senior witch who even went as far as casting a deadly spell and bewitching some rival woman so that she went insane and started roaming the city bins picking up papers from smelly garbage heaps.
So the issue is not the fact that some down and out man sired the Bishop's children in her past. The whole weight of the matter now seems centered on the fact that she denies that the man who suddenly emerged from nowhere "is the one" in spite of the fact that her two sons appear to be carbon copies of the man. Then there is the fact that her rapidly approaching wedding to a South African whom she introduced recently could be halted by court action, if the "jiggers" man makes good his threat to go to court to halt the union.
It is the sort of mess that the public will be riveted to for some time to come, more so the Starehe voters whom the Bishop is expected to approach for their votes in the forthcoming general elections.
More Recent Story On Bishop Wanjiru
Court stops wedding
Margaret Wanjiru Joins ODM-Kenya Through LDP
So riveting has this issue been to Kenyans that it has taken off the heat from the recent "earth shattering" pronouncements from the electoral chair to the effect that elections could be called at any time.
Yesterday it became clearly evident that the Bishop, who is never easily flustered, was feeling the heat, as she issued an apology to Kenyans for her reaction to the man claiming to be the father of her children saying something to the effect that, "…the man with hands that look like they have been attacked by jiggers can go and hang himself and the good Bishop will preside over the funeral." The TV stations' News Bulletins have not missed an opportunity to replay that clip captured at her church as she spoke from the pulpit, over and over.
Probably one of the reasons why this little drama has attracted so much attention from Kenyans is the unexplained mystery of how it escalated into the heated controversy it is today, in the first place. Especially because Bishop Margaret Wanjiru does not deny her humble, controversial past. She even admits that she once washed toilets to earn a living. Neither does the Bishop have any qualms over confessing that before she became a Christian, she was a senior witch who even went as far as casting a deadly spell and bewitching some rival woman so that she went insane and started roaming the city bins picking up papers from smelly garbage heaps.
So the issue is not the fact that some down and out man sired the Bishop's children in her past. The whole weight of the matter now seems centered on the fact that she denies that the man who suddenly emerged from nowhere "is the one" in spite of the fact that her two sons appear to be carbon copies of the man. Then there is the fact that her rapidly approaching wedding to a South African whom she introduced recently could be halted by court action, if the "jiggers" man makes good his threat to go to court to halt the union.
It is the sort of mess that the public will be riveted to for some time to come, more so the Starehe voters whom the Bishop is expected to approach for their votes in the forthcoming general elections.
More Recent Story On Bishop Wanjiru
Court stops wedding
Margaret Wanjiru Joins ODM-Kenya Through LDP
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