It has now emerged that Kalonzo Musyoka could be the thorn in the flesh of ODM Kenya (Orange Democratic Movement) and if his recent behaviour is anything to go by, if the long predicted split happens then the Mwingi North MP will be fully responsible for it.
In a meeting last week to formulate the best way of electing their presidential candidate, the diminutive politician with an inflated ego, mainly brought about by controversial opinion polls favouring him, walked out on the second day claiming he had to address a campaign meeting elsewhere leaving all and sundry asking where the priorities for the former foreign affairs minister really were.
Many of those in ODM have confirmed to this writer that Kalonzo feels that the ODM ship is doomed if he is not elected as its’ torch bearer and on many occasions he has been saying behind closed doors that Raila can’t beat Kibaki due to the arithmetic of ethnicity. While there may be plenty of evidence to confirm this, the big problem here is Kalonzo’s attitude and the fact that he would end up being the sort of lame duck president that would make Kibaki look like a hero.
According to Kalonzo, Raila being a Luo can not secure votes from outside Nyanza and this will ensure that Kibaki wins a landslide victory at the detriment of the ODM who have several presidential candidate options like himself, Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi.
Musyoka has little time for the likes of William Ruto and Najib Balala whom he sees as political greenhorns.
Kalonzo could turn out to be his own worst enemy as his arrogance and approach to ODM politics could alienate him and deny him the opportunity of running this country. His only chance would be to swallow his pride and accept the ODM presidential nominee even if its not himself. Alas, it seems that it is already too late for that.
Chances are extremely high that Raila will win the ODM presidential nominations and taking into consideration the grassroots support he enjoys in the party, it is also the governments and Narc Kenya’s will that Raila contests the presidency as they see this as the best way of ensuring Kibaki's re-election as Kenyans. They are stuck in the belief that Kenyans usually vote on ethnic lines and there is a lot of suspicion among other tribes in voting for a Luo president.
Musyoka will probably leave ODM in a huff after loosing the presidential nominations and maybe forge an alliance with disgruntled elements from other parties as chances of him vying for the presidency as an independent are slim as he does not have the financial resources to bank roll a presidential campaign.
If this turns out to be the case, Musyoka will never make it to State House as he will be isolated by the political class and contrary to popular belief that Musyoka is a hot favourite to take over from president Kibaki later this year, the Mwingi North MP is too optimistic for his own good and should not let the incredible opinion polls findings go to his head.
Apparently, Musyoka's biggest opposition comes from Ukambani where the locals accuse him of having done nothing for his community in spite of being in government for almost two decades.
Those who know the real Musyoka say he has never helped anybody apart from relatives and close friends with others saying they prefer health minister Charity Ngilu to Musyoka since during her brief stint in government, Ngilu has sought employment for several kinsmen from Machakos to Makueni district and assisted others get promotions not to mention the plum jobs under her ministerial docket that she has shared out among the Kamba community.
For Kalonzo, he has never been associated with assisting people and on the contrary, he has been in the forefront of ensuring powerful Kambas in the Moi regime were sacked like the former head of the public service Philip Mbithi and former treasury permanent secretary Joseph Mbindyo.
Needless to say, his Mwingi North constituency is among the most backward and least developed in Ukambani and the country apart from being also plagued with insecurity as bandits and cattle rustlers roam the area with impunity. Some of his constituents sleep on trees and have deserted their homes in fear of sporadic attacks by bandits.
I could bet my arm and leg that if the past of Kalonzo Musyoka is anything to go by, the Mwingi North MP is not about to take over the country from president Kibaki come December and even Raila Odinga has much better chances than the diminutive soft speaking legislator from Ukambani. And again, they say pretenders are worse than murderers.
