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Special Edition: Report On Kibera Violence

Most well informed, well educated, smart Kenyans still think that Mungiki is nothing more than a bad joke that went a little far.
-Kumekucha-

Breaking News:
After this article was written Ndura Waruinge was charged in court. Read the story here. My only comment to this develelopment, is let us wait and see if he goes to jail.

Many Kenyans do not know the purpose of election violence or just how effective it can be in a political campaign. But before we go into that, it is important to ask a few questions;

1. Ndura Waruinge was once the leader of Mungiki. Under his watch dozens of Kenyans were murdered in cold blood, however Mr Waruinge is amazingly still not in prison. Why?
2. Many less prominent Mungiki adherents who dare break their blood oath (every member of Mungiki is initiated with a very serious blood oath) and become Christians were beheaded or barely escaped with their lives. Ndura has lived without fear since his conversion. Why?
3. Kanu, by that I mean the old Kanu of Nicholas Biwott, Daniel arap Moi and company comes back into the limelight and political forefront and suddenly Mungiki re-emerges and we also see so-called land/tribal clashes coming back with a vengeance. Could it be just a coincidence?
4. Ndura Waruinge ignores his native Dagoretti constituency where he has the best chance of making a serious impact politically and instead opts for neighboring Langata constituency where the MP is a well-known government opponent and a "thorn in the flesh" to those who would like to have their way in Kenya. Why Langata?
5. Have you seen the way Ndura dresses? Immaculate suits and he definitely doesn't look hard up for cash at a time when ordinary Kenyans are going through great difficulties putting food on the table. Where does he get his money?
6. Why is it that Ndura only gets really active in the run up to an election? It happened in 2000/2001 and now in 2006/2007.
7. Is it just a coincidence that Ndura wants to stand for a political seat where there is heavy Mungiki presence?

The next thing that is important to note is that every government in the world has covert operations carried out by various security and political units that it controls for the purpose of achieving various objectives.

I happened to be at Kamukunji police station in the year 2000, just when Mungiki had started to come into the limelight in the country. A roll call was being carried out in the cells and a duty police officer called out a name and then said loudly that the person was a member of Mungiki. He then exchanged a knowing look with a colleague. It was very strange. This was not the way policemen (however corrupt they were) behaved with dangerous violent criminals. Later that year many strange things started happening that suggested that either the security organs in the country had been overwhelmed by Mungiki, or they were deliberately on a go-slow whenever it came to dealing with these murderers. To me after that, I did not need any more convincing that Mungiki was in fact a covert government operation.

Armed with this information, it now becomes much easier to speculate over what is really going on. I have deliberately used the word "speculate" because in any covert operation, the number one priority is to leave no trace of evidence whatsoever linking the operation with the real sponsors. As soon as somebody is able to identify a link, then the whole operation is compromised. So if you are looking for concrete evidence to link Mungiki with the government, good luck to you. Chances are that you will grow old and die still looking for it.

Police spokesman Alfred Mutua has told us that the government is preparing some very serious charges against Ndura. Very strange statement that. We all know that to be easily convicted by a court in Kenya, the qualification is to be poor and ignorant. Otherwise if you are not poor or ignorant, then the government needs plenty of solid evidence to put you behind bars. What evidence is there to convict Ndura? According to me, zilch. He simply wanted to hold a meeting and then violence broke out. Don't get me wrong, there are of course serious suspicions, but nothing that can uphold a conviction, least of all for "very serious charges" as Mr Mutua told us. I doubt whether Mutua knows what is really going on. He is just told what he is supposed to say. He may have his suspicions (he looks pretty nervous and shifty these days, like he believes less and less of what he is saying).

In Kenya election violence achieves the following political objectives;

a) Your opponent's voters are forced to relocate from the place where they need to be to vote. Those who remain can hardly make an objective choice when their priority is to stay alive. (This is one reason why the law should be changed to allow people to vote from anywhere).
b) In the chaos there is nobody to stop you "importing" thousands of voters to win the election for you.
c) Violence spreads fear. The idea is to create very serious fear, then come in and quell the violence. It is then very easy to convince the voters that if they don't vote for the "people who quelled the violence" then the violence will return if the other side wins.
d) It becomes easy to collect voters cards from those who remain in return for their lives and security.
e) It becomes impossible for any candidate to sell their agenda to the electorate.

In brief election violence and intimidation works. That is why people use it. When you are seated in safety in that posh apartment in some smart neighborhood or in some foreign country, it is impossible for you to understand what it is like to live in constant fear of your life in your own country.

P.S. 1: For the umpteenth time, I am not supporting Raila for President. Personally I would prefer Charity Ngilu out of all the current presidential aspirants (but I am waiting and actively organizing for the new deal leader who will emerge from nowhere to win the presidency). But just think about the following scenario for a minute. Langata breaks into chaos and violence and uncertainty continues until Election Day. The Kenyan constitution says that for you to be duly elected as president, you have to be an elected member of parliament. So assuming that Raila will be the ODM candidate, the idea would be to ensure that he does not win the Langata seat. Or to keep him so busy fighting for his parliamentary seat for him to campaign effectively, nationally. This could explain why the ODM leader looked so shaken walking into Kilimani police station to file a complaint against Ndura and his mob the other day. This is sadly one of the reasons why many politicians opt for a rural home political base. It is much easier to defend against such threats.

And to make sure that the public will never be convinced that the violence in Kibera is targeted against Raila, some smart alec starts the violence in Mathare first. So when Raila speaks out, many people assume that he is talking "his usual nonsense" yet if truth be told, Raila has mostly been proved right in the end no matter how wild his allegations have seemed. Remember the first reaction to Raila's claim about the Armenian brothers? Mercenaries in the country? Sent to assassinate? Totally insane!! Somebody actually just stopped short of saying that he should be rushed for an urgent check-up on his mental health. But Raila was proved right in the end wasn't he?

P.S. 2: Young, naïve political candidates and presidential hopefuls like Kumekucha, please take careful note of these developments. This is the only way the wazees know how to play the game of politics. They play dirty and they always seek to punch way below the belt. 2007 will be a year full of unexplained mysteries for those who think that Kenyan politics is similar to American politics and seek textbook official explanations for everything. Majority of those kind of Kenyans read this blog regularly. Happily those who read this blog with an open mind will always know exactly what is going on.

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Coming Soon: Bloodshed is the inevitable result of election violence. I will explain the real purpose of blood shed in the Kenyan political context. And how a Kenyan MP won a political seat by murdering a close friend who was his own campaign manager. Keep reading folks, the mother of all general elections is fast approaching. Let it not catch you uninformed.

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Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Ex-Mungiki, Ndura Waruinge: What You Don't Know About Election Violence In Kenya

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Home Page 19th December 2006