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Sunday, March 17, 2024

Ruto's Political Downfall: Signs That Cannot Be Ignored

Ruto's Political Downfall: Signs That Cannot Be Ignored


A handful of months ago, things were not as bad as they are right now. But even then I made a prediction and boldly said that the UDA party is going to vanish off the face of Kenyan politics. 

I'm sure regulars on the Kumekuchachannel remember that. But I have to confess that at the time it was made, this particular prediction may have looked far-fetched. It may even have looked like Kumekucha Chris talking emotionally. But today many many months later I believe I have a lot more people who believe that what I said was factual and will indeed come to pass.

As you read this a vast majoity of UDA politicians cannot dare address their own constituents. They cannot go back to the area they represent and actually hold an impromptu meeting and address the people.

They can't do that and get away with it safely. To address people they need security and they need to make very tight security arrangements well in advance. And even then we're witnessing these ruling party politicians being heckled and shouted down by the very voters who supposedly elected them into office. 

We have seen that even president Ruto has a serious problem and is facing a crisis no other Kenyan president has ever faced in our history. That of not being able to go out there and talk to the people and get their attention. 

There was a time, not too long ago, when people were very excited to see Ruto being heckled and shouted down by crowds of Kenyans. Those clips went viral like there was no tomorrow. But now it's getting boring because it's normal. People are hardly surprised. 

These days you see a headline of a video; Ruto Jeered by crowd: Ruto cannot believe it as the crowd shouts him down. And you ignore that video you yawn because that's so normal now.

Two nights ago EPRA reduced fuel prices by a whole Kenya Shillings seven. And then the Kenya Shilling is now exchanging at 134 Kenya shillings to a dollar, which is a significant gain over to the dollar in just a handful of weeks. A far cry from the Kshs 160 it was exchanging to the dollar not too long ago. 

Now this is all very good news fo Kenyans. So I went out to the streets to see if people are celebrating. I was eager to see how Kenyans are reacting to this great news. 

It turns out that there is no joy or celebration. No even relief amongst Kenyans. What is wrong with Kenyans? They should be celebrating! Because if the Kenya Shilling is strong against the dollar, it means that prices will go down. If the price of fuel has gone down by whole 7 Shillings surely it means that the cost of living will start moving towards being bearable, does it not? That is good news is it not? 

Well, we come back to that monster many of us do not want to face. The name of that monster is human nature. The government of Kenya is behaving like that husband who is not too wise whose wife caught him cheating and he went out and bought her a brand new car. He also bought her many many new dresses and shoes and jewelry and a lot of things. 

And in his mind, that husband is now relaxed believing that he has solved his marital crisis.

That husband is an idiot.

You see politics and governance has a lot to do with the emotions of the people. And believe it or not, even savage brutal regimes in ancient times who went and conquered nations knew this simple truth linked to human nature. Because did you know that one of the first things most of these savages did when they conquered a new territory? You will never guess. I discovered this truth just the other day. 

Most of these savages used to call the people and tell them that all their debts had been cancelled, they owed nobody anything. And as human nature dictates, immediately those conquered people would start supporting this new savage regime. 

You know money and emotions cannot be separated. When you touch people's money and you cause life to be so very hard for them, politically that is called political suicide anywhere in the world. 

And so after you've committed political suicide you cannot come back from the dead and give people goodies and do nice things to people and expect that they will forgive and forget.

Just like you cannot cheat on your wife and then buy her a brand new Ferrari and other goodies and expect that she will forget what you did to her. 

What she will do is to take that Ferrari to her mother ensure that her bank account is secure or transfer all funds to her mother's account and then she'll pack all her things and all her children and she will leave you.

Granted, most women don't do that these days. They stay in the marriage and they persevere or so you think. And you relax and then one day many months later or even years later you die mysteriously. 

Just visit parts of Kiambu County and talk to the widows there and then you'll get a revelation. Visit Kiambu County and talk to the rich men and ask them whether they ever have supper in their own homes they will tell you NO, "And that's why I'm still alive." But that is a story for another day.

Bottom line, UDA the political party, is history. We appreciate the fuel prices coming down. And we appreciate the Kenyan Shilling strengthening against the US dollar. We also appreciate the relief that comes with this.

However UD government is still history. 

Why? 

Because of the basics of politics and the basics of human nature, it's a simple as that. 

Actually Ruto and UDA are in much more trouble than most Kenyans realize. And many will understand this truism in the next couple of weeks.

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