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Saturday, February 07, 2009

People Power Sneaks In Unexpectedly Through The Back Door

About a week ago, I told you good folks to keep your eyes on two guys, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. You can read that post HERE.

Well, most of you must know by now that Uhuru has just filed a case that has far-reaching implications to have his name removed from a report by the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights that names him as one of the financiers of the post election violence. You can read the full story HERE. Even more interesting is the lawyer representing him in the case. His name is Desterio Oyatsi. This is the man who not only got Nicholas Biwott off the hook but also won him some eye-popping damages. I am told that he is a very smart lawyer indeed. Well we'll see. Mainly because the situation has changed and continues to change dramatically in the country as far as politics go. You will know what I am talking about when you finish reading this post.

But before I say what I want to say today, I want you to add one more name on our list of people to watch so that we can tell the direction of where things are headed. Kindly add the name of this gynecologist doctor called Bonny Khalwale who is the MP for Ikolomani. Please watch this man carefully over the next few weeks and months without removing Uhuru and Ruto from your radar. Read a profile on Khalwale by one of the daily newspapers.

This thing hit me when I went to this small up-country shopping centre this week and found a huge crowd outside this cyber that had a TV. Kenyans were watching the proceedings in parlaiment keenly. Actually no analyst yet (to the best of my knowledge) has captured the dramatic change in the dynamiocs of Kenyan politics that has been brought about by the move to air live broadcasts of parliamentary proceedings both on TV and radio.

Let me give you a very simple recent example. The bill currently being discussed in parliament towards the establishment of a local tribunal to try post-election violence suspects has witnessed a strange twist. At the beginning it looked like it was going to sail through. Then suddenly substantial stiff opposition to it emerged. So much so that we can say it is already dead in the water. Yesterday parliament could not even raise a quorum to conclude important discussions on the bill. You know the big culprit? It was TV and her close cousin, radio. There is no doubt that MPs are playing to the gallery (as they should because their true bosses are the electorate). One man (previously unknown) who has made a very big name for himself, thanks mainly to these live broadcasts of parliamentary proceedings is the gynecologist I mentioned earlier, Bonny "Oh I told the Prime Minister. Noooo! Kimunya must go" Khalwale.

The political dynamics, my fellow Kenyans have changed and the have changed in a big way. Before, once elected MPs would go to the August house to cut their own deals to the highest bidder and only report back to their constituents when general elections were around the corner. That era has now clearly ended.

And this is why I told a friend yesterday that although Uhuru has filed this case, there is only one problem. And that is the increasingly powerful (previously powerless) court of public opinion. Folks there are very exciting times ahead.

We'll discuss this in more detail after the weekend.

Friday, February 06, 2009

Valentines Lies

Lies don’t just exist in politics … they are all over … in business, social life, among close friends, family members. But what is most heart breaking is the tendency for people to love and believe lies. They many times prefer to believe and cling onto a lie than face the truth as it is.

But this lie lies much deeper than you think contributing to many illegitimate kids that are not capable of handling the truth … and neither can they understand it. Maombi tu kwao ndio ya ta-work. They were born out of lies … brought up with lies … and are living a lie … and the life of lies is all they understand. Good news is that nothing last forever and anyone who is interested can be quickened into a new direction and for today let’s start from the basics.

Another day of what is apparently supposed to be a day to show those you love the Love … will be with us in a week. The town is starting to glow red as the commercial aspect of the day takes shape. Some peoples hearts are already red waiting with a lot of anxiety to see what their partner will show or do to assure them of the love. And right there goes the 1st wrong step. Valentines is not the designated day of the year that your partner is tasked with providing the love and show you how special you are … it’s an everyday thing for him/her to show you the love. Check yourself out for your intentions of been remembered and the meanings you make related to some behaviours. If you will use valentines to look for evidence that you are loved or special … know right now that your in big trouble … your relationship is in trouble.

One of the skills required for a successful relationship is the willingness of the partners and their ability to be vulnerable and ask for what they need and want. That your man/lady went out and bought you a lovely card/flowers means … he/she went out and bought a lovely card/flowers. That behavior alone does not mean he/she loves you. He/she may love you … but that alone is not the true indicator of his/her love or valuing.

So this valentines do yourselves some goodness … sit down together and plan the way you are going to celebrate your love and your gratitude for been in each other’s life. Don’t get into the mix and traditions of valentines … take the opportunity to care for each other and your relationship together … in ways that are meaningful to both of you.

And in that light … pliz don’t be pressured or guilted into acting like you care or care more than you do. Borrowing the words of a pal of mine … valentines day is a day set up for disappointment- encourages disillusionment and offers false messages. Be sure you only do/say what is in your heart to do and say. Make sure your thoughts, feelings, actions and beliefs match.

If your dating someone you think is worthy of your special attention … let them know. Only you can make it happen … and only you can keep it real.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

God Help Us If We Still Don't Know The Kenya We Want

A conference on the Kenya we want?

This should have been a grand idea just shortly before independence. At that time, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel Arap Moi and other Kenyan freedom fighters should have gone around the nation seeking opinion on the Kenya Kenyans wanted. As a matter of fact, they did. They went around the nation listening to the humiliating stories Kenyans had to tell about working as servants in white homes and fields, caring for the brutish children of Asians who called grown men "boyi", and toiled in their own little shambas that never yielded food enough to feed their perpetually threatened families. After listening to the anguish of fellow Kenyans, these leaders acted. They mobilized the folks and took back this nation from the colonialists.

Our founding fathers' goals were not grand by any stretch of the imagination. They wanted to eradicate poverty, hunger and disease. That these three goals have not been met...and seem to have exponentially grown...is testament to the fact that our post-independence leaders have failed to lead this nation. How do we expalain the fact that while Kenyans have sank deeper into poverty, the Mois, the Kenyattas, the Odingas and the Kibakis have grown wealthier in equal measure? And how is it that while Kenyans are today going hungry we are learning daily of the culpability of men like Ruto and Fidel in causing the biting maize problem? Still, how are we to explain the fact that while most Kenyans can't afford insurance and are saddled with crushing medical bills, our leaders are healthy, overfed and boast some of the grandest perks in the world?

The Kenya we want?

Who the hell came up with this idea? When Kibaki campaigned last year, was he campaigning without a vision for Kenya? Did Raila campaign without knowing where he wanted to take this nation? And did Kalonzo Musyoka promise to do A and B and C for Kenyans without knowing what we wanted? Or is this just our leaders' way of telling us that they've been so disconected from the rest of us...that they have no clue what we want? These guys never cease to amaze me.

But this I must say. That if after all these years these folks don't know what we want, they have no business leading us. If they truly wanted to know what Kenyans want they didn't have to call in Dr. Salim Ahmed Salim and Renneberger and Lidner and the bunch of Cabinet ministers and our don't-give-a-damn MPs to that forum. What they needed to do was go to the people. They should have gone to Kibera, Nyeri, Kisumu, Chavakali, Voi, Lodwar and other towns across this nation. Or better still, why not look at the face of that starving, crying woman on the frontpage of the Standard newspaper or the traumatizing pictures of fellow Kenyans burning to death at Sachangwan just to fetch some gas/petrol that might be sold so food can be put on the table?

The Kenya we want?

Bullshit.

All I know is that the Kenya we want has no place for clueless men like Kibaki, Raila, Musyoka, Uhuru, Ruto and the band of MPs who have lost touch with their constituents. Next time they call a conference like this, they will find better answers if they can hold it in Berlin or Toronto. Why? Because rather than make the dignitaries from around the globe come here to tell us what kind of Kenya we want, why not make it easy on them and go to the counties they live in?

Listen...

Kenyans know the Kenya they want. Just wait till 2012. You will see!

The Kenya We Never Wanted, Don't Need

The talking shop is busting at the seams with scoundrels waxing philosophical with cheap advice they never practiced. Listening to the former president acting a sage with all prescription for ailing Kenya amounted to insulting the intelligence of all Kenyans.

First give credit to Lucifer for never disappointing. The present spate of mega corruption makes Uncle Dan look like a saint. And Boy the old man from Sacho was in good company. He must have been smiling from ear to ear seeing his political students almost outdoing him in re-inventing a wheel that is not even round in shape.

Moi’s analogy of the presidency being a bus driver having a plethora of pick pockets aboard is symptomatic of how simplistic our leadership view weighty matters of governance. And please save your breath in justify the same mediocrity with such platitudes as effective communication. This was a conference at KICC and not another barasa in Rongai.

The Kenya we want conference may have been convened with all the good intention but has unfortunately degenerated to the predictable talk shop Kenyans are unrivalled about. We are not kissing the bottom of political and economical pit because of lack of glossy and buzzword-filled white papers. We have them in plenty populating dusty government offices all over.

Until such a time we collectively and individually free ourselves from living the NATIONAL LIE of charades packaged as blue prints, we will enjoy the beauty of every floor on our way down oblivious of the hard pavement waiting to kiss our skull at the base. With no moral ground to point a finger at anybody the chief executive has no choice but to preside over the EXECUTIVE FRAUD in almost every ministry.

Coloured charade
The thinly-veiled cover of security in numbers has been met and it is crunch time for ministers to feather their nests with every fabric leaving Kenyans smarting and dying from famine. Fearful of the radically different next political dispensation, the fathers of corruption and Kenyan gate keepers are looting anything within our borders.

The Kenya we want conference is just another of those gimmicks designed to create impression of motion with no actual movement. We are stuck in a rut and at the mercy of the scavengers as they cycle carcass Kenya.

Failure and refusal to break from our ruinous past makes the likes of Moi chest-thumb while feeling prophetic and relevant with all solutions to problems they shamelessly created while in office. Looking for any cow still standing to milk, it will come as no surprise if the KICC conference won’t turn into another cash cow. If Balala, Ruto and Kiraitu did it successfully in their dockets why not spread the wealth around?

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

The United States Of Gaddafi

why the King of Kings must lay off the pipe
I think it’s about time we ban the reading of fairy tale story books in Africa. These books are becoming problematic. Do you know why all women dream of a white wedding, the type with flowing white wedding gowns and horse driven chariots? The answer is simple; they read ‘Cinderella’ as little girls. They spend years yearning the kiss from prince charming because of ‘Snow White And The Seven Dwarfs’. I’m yet to figure out what type of books Colonel Muammar Gaddafi read in his early years in Libya but clearly his dream of a United States of Africa must emanate from a spectacular fairy tale.

The ‘King of Kings’ is apparently disappointed by the reception of his vision by African presidents at the AU meeting. I hear he was banging his head on the table in defeat. Now, I’m neither a medical doctor nor a psychiatrist but I advice him to continue banging his head until he wakes up from that nightmare. Who really wants to share a country with the Santomeans? No offense to the proud people of São Tomé and Príncipe.

Well, I must admit that the grandeur of the concept is indeed intoxicating. A unifying currency may encourage African business; but how do you incorporate the Zimbabwean dollar? An African military force may mean peace; but what of Kony and his friends in the thickets of Uganda? An African passport, now that’s a great idea; but how do we trust Nigerians with that document? One president; if its Kibaki, will the rest of Africa stand the rants and antics of the first lady of Africa? And how do we move on if Raila is not appointed prime minister of Africa? Now, outside of being tourist attractions, what do the bush men of the Kalahari bring to the table? And what if Kivuitu chairs the Election Commission of Africa? Ultimately, the biggest obstacle will be determining where to locate the African Central Bank; that alone will ignite warfare across the continent.

I’m not sure what the King of Kings expected from a room full of Musevenis and Mugabes but his passionate call for unity appears genuine even though the fine print in his plan makes him the first president of Africa. Remember this chap is president for life in Libya. How exactly will he enhance democracy? Didn’t he get into power via a coup? And how about his hobby of shooting airplanes from the skies of Scotland? Look, I know people reform but honestly do we want a one-time-terrorist as the African president? Gaddafi may be a man of refurbished character but he must forget ruling Africa from Tripoli. Extending Libyan tentacles (Laico Grand Regency) all over Africa is not enough.

This is what I say. A unified Africa is a great idea touted by the wrong person and at the wrong time. If Gaddafi really sees a possibility here, he should invest his money in unifying communities within each country first. He must come to Kenya to preach unity between the Luo and Kikuyu. He must then visit Sudan and scold his fellow Arabs for shabbily treating the black Dafuris.

Charity begins at home.

Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Who Advises President Kibaki On Siasa?

Who advices president Kibaki on political issues?

I know many people (like political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi) have asked this question many times. But seriously who is it? What is the name of the twit?

I suspect that the head-strong president who has a reputation for surrounding himself with many advisors whose advice he never takes is making decisions here against the better judgement of his aides. But I could be wrong.

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But honestly what is going on? I mean the man (President Kibaki) keeps dead quiet when he is supossed to speak and show leadership while giving direction... But then now he speaks when it would have been much better to keep quiet. What was that confidence-in-professor Saitoti statement all about? Please tell me somebody because I haven’t the slightest clue.

What the President should have done was to keep quiet and if for some reason he is scared of Prof George Saitoti, he should have used his cell phone and called the man to reassure him that all was well. However by opening his mouth he has send the following clear and unclear messages to Kenyans;

1) There is no unity or united front in his immediate family. Can a man who can’t run his own immediate family run the nation?

2) Why rush to defend George “Goldenberg” Saitoti? Is the President scared of Saitoti? Certainly he has proved that he supports the corrupt and has full confidence in their corrupt way of doing things..

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3) So what was the President telling us about the first lady? That there is a power struggle between him and her as to whose word is final? Or that there is something wrong with her mentally that he cannot control?

4) The President issues very very few statements personally. So the message he was sending forth yesterday was that what he had to say about Prof Saitoti was very very important. Excuse me!!! Really?

5) Usually in politics you do stuff to cause an impact and change things. So what has the president's recorded statement done? What has it changed? Kenyans still know that the succession intrigues are raging and that the preferred choice is obviously Uhuru. If anything the statement has told Kenyans that the President is worried and certainly not in full control. Just as they had feared.

Obviously the president has his own ideas about leadership and how to go about being CEO of The Republic of Kenya Limited, but my humble opinion is that they are not from any known management book. And so far these principals have sunk the country to its' lowest ebb ever. I hate to admit this but if Moi (who never saw the inside of a university, let alone lecturing in one as some people did) was still president today Kenya would be much better off and many of our fellow citizens would still be alive.

Monday, February 02, 2009

Prof Kimya: History Repeats Itself As Battle Gets Vicious

2002 was a very memorable year and a lot of stuff happened. Two fascinating incidences are relevant to my post today.

The then president, Daniel Arap Moi was at this public meeting and he mentioned Prof George Saitoti’s name. The topology professor jumped to his feet at lightening speed as he usually did. Not different from a schoolboy whose name has been mentioned by the headmaster at a school assembly.

Moi started off by saying that the professor was his good friend. Saitoti beamed but then turned purple at what Moi had to say next. Infront of the huge gathering he emphasized how Saitoti was not qualified for the presidency of Kenya. Some people at the meeting seated in the VIP dias with Saitoti bowed their heads in embarrassment and disbelief.

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The other incident happened at Kasarani. After spending hours lobbying delegates and distributing cash through the night, Prof George Saitoti discovered minutes before KANU were about to elect a new party chairman in the Moi succession drama, that his name was missing from the list of contestants. Naturally the professor went ballistic. Moi heard the man murmuring and shouted; “Professor Kimya!” But Saitoti had gone totally bonkers and continued complaining and thgrowing his hands in the air. There was hush in the entire auditorium as the president stood up in full glare of rolling TV cameras to give the professor “daggers”. Moi’s action finally did it and Saitoti quietly sat down. Later he stood up and said those famous words; “There comes a time when the interests of the nation are more important than those of an individual.”

According to many sources Prof Saitoti later called Moi to complain about the shoddy treatment at Kasarani after years of blind loyalty to him. But Moi had made up his mind that his heir would be the son of the man whom he took power the presidency from. And so Saitoti crossed over and joined Kibaki, Raila, Ngilu and others in NARC, the party that eventuially won the general elections with an empohatic landslide that year.

Now on the eve of the Kibaki succession it seems that history is repeating itself again. Once again the man standing in the way of Saitoti’s presidential ambitions is one Uhuru Kenyatta.

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Folks never take lightly what the first lady says. It is clear that powerful forces in the Kibaki administration want Saitoti eliminated from the succession battle early. Indeed it is now clear that Uhuru Kenyatta’s appointment to the Finance docket was no accident or careless after-thought and analysts were correct to read succession implications in the announcement.

The big question now, is what will Satoti do? Will he look at his sums again? Whatever he does, George Saitoti will never be the president of Kenya. There are many reasons but the most important is that politics has changed and the dfays when his kind of politics worked have disappeared. His tactics may be effective in stealing parliamentary seats but surely not the presidency.

I will end by quoting a certain Kenyan who apparently called in to the radio station QFM this morning. The man said;

“Lucy Kibaki should remain as quiet as she was when her husband stole the election. If it is pity she is feeling for Kenyans she should have felt it then and backed her son Jimmy in warning their father to let go of the presidency and avoid attracting a cirse to the family.”

Interesting stuff. Very interesting.

Tell Them off Lucy, Tell Them


She emerged from her hibernation with guns blazing. And Mama Jimmy took the bull with both horns. Nobody is well played to understand the lethargic leadership Kenya is wallowing in than Lucy Kibaki. She understands the sloths first hand and could not stand the sight of Saitoti’s insensitivity to fire victims.

Forget the loaded Kibaki succession political undercurrents ragging underneath all these charades. Lucy couldn’t mask anything and the pain of a mother was so thick you need an axe to slice it. She saw the opportunity and true to her character she seized with all the zeal and gusto. Damn the consequences. No amount of moralizing would dissuade her from reading the riot act.

The straight talking Muthoni threw all the caution to the wind in disparaging the Office of the President and his minister. She knows better than sugar coat fifth when she sees one. The difference between the gloomy spouse bandaged at the mouth paying homage to the fire victims is incomparable to the agitated and forceful Lucy demanding explanation in writing within 24 hours. That is leading by example and from the front.

Firing from all cylinders
The Nakumatt and Molo tragedies has left little bigoted minds waxing moralistic in justifying the deaths oblivious of global human nature towards the same episode as witnessed in New Orleans and even off the Britain’s coast last year. The only difference is that out there institutions work unlike ours which is chocking from incompetence with all powers and authority traceable to a single office.

With the GGC neck deep in murk, recent tragedies may have offered little respite to the political scoundrels until Lucy appeared on the scene. Guess it all boils down to the adage THERE COMES A TIME…….Nani kama Lucy.

Sunday, February 01, 2009

It's Been A Week of Death And Horror Here At Home

No, God is not punishing Kenyans like I heard some preachers say. Why would He? The God I know has never held poverty against those who are in that situation. What happened at Nakumatt was an accident whose impact would have been tremendously minimized had people been trained to deal with such emergencies. What I still find troubling was that thousands of curious wananchi actually stood right within the area of the ravaging inferno even as the gas tanks exploded right in front of them. How could it be that they didn't sense the present and active danger they were exposing themselves to? And how can it be that my fellow Kenyans could expose themselves to the deadly fumes emanating from the burning building?

I'm still stunned.

The Sachangwan tragedy is easier to explain. Over there, it was a case of poverty-stricken Kenyans trying to lay hands on some badly needed mafuta at home. My heart goes out to them for running right into a death trap. The sad thing is that these two tragedies within a week, coming so soon after the horrible weeks we've had with the incessant bangles and irresponsible behaviour of our politicians and corporate heads, has left Kenyans with a sense that something has gone gravely wrong. Indeed, it's because of this sense of a gathering storm that some preachers are tempted to think God is not happy with us.

Not so.

To say it like it is, there are tragedies that however prepared we make ourselves will always catch us off guard. Accidents happen. However, I still think the Nakumatt leadership must be charged with criminal negligence and made to pay for the lives that were lost unnecessarily by the reckless behaviour of some of their guards. Just how stupid were these guards? How could they block people who were running for dear life? The fact Nakumatt could hire such idiots is enough to charge them and make them take responsibility for their actions.

As for the tankers, I'm speechless. Those monsters are all over the place, cruising down the streets, even within the cities, with their deadly cargo. We simply have no road-network designed to keep these monsters from residential and city premises. So is there anything the government can do to minimize trouble? To begin with, it would be prudent if a massive safety campaign is launched. Kenyans must be told to keep away from fires. As soon as smoke is detected, folks have no more than five minutes to get out of danger. Don't think of your kipande or birth certificate or your boom box which you just brought home. Think of your life.

Run!

That said, I was gratified to see the leaders of the nation out there with wananchi. And you could see the strain and pain in some of them. I hope the images they saw at Nakumatt and Sachangwan goad them to take actions that will keep Kenyans safe in the face of accidents of the kind we've had to deal with.

My condolences to all the families who've lost loved ones, and may the Lord have mercy on us if those preachers should be right.

Prepare For Trouble


Uhuru Kenyatta: Want to guess the most popular number on his cell phone just now?

There is a time for peace and there is a time for war. Since the beginning of time nothing has changed about seasons of trouble and seasons for good, a time for war and a time for peace. As the good books says, there is nothing new under the sun. NOTHING!

The dark clouds gathering over Kenya right now, coupled with ominous signs of careless deaths of too many citizens have been sending violent chills up my spine over the last day or two.

Folks, prepare for trouble. Big trouble. Keep extra stocks of food in your house, have a good exit strategy if you live in Nairobi. Or other hot spots of Kenya. At least start thinking about it. I have a feeling that up market suburbs are not going to be very safe this time round (but I could be wrong.)

I can hear you sigh and wonder what has come over Kumekucha again. And maybe that is where I should begin. The trouble with most of you reading this post is exactly the same with that of the key players around whom the events of the coming days will revolve around. You see most of you wonderful readers of this blog without whom Kumekucha would NOT be what it is today, belong to the age group I call the generation of the decision makers of Kenya. Shall we say the younger people of this country? You are the people who are about to decide the fate of our beloved mother-land. But the problem is that you do not quite understand a number of key things that have to do with your country. And I say that with great humility. It is partly your fault and partly not your fault. It is not your fault because you have been brought up during the Nyayo error and a lot of that KANU propaganda has sunk deep into your bone marrow. Yes error and NOT era. But it is also your fault because studying history to you is sooooooooo boring.

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Let me give you one example of what I mean. Many of you are convinced that Kenyans can never abandon voting along tribal lines. This is the same thinking firmly held by Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto (keep your eyes carefully focused on these two gentlemen over the next few weeks. You will know why I am saying that by the time you get to the end of this post.) That is exactly why Uhuru made his biggest political mistake (one that has obliterated his career as a national politician) in the run up to the 2007 general elections. Had Uhuru stayed put in ODM, he would have most certainly lost his parliamentary seat. But he would have made a point that would have now put him in poll position to be the next president of Kenya. And most probably he would not have been waiting for an unsolicited date with the Hague. But alas, he will now never be able to shake off the tribal tag. Not in 100 years, not in 1000 years.

You see what the generation of decision-makers in Kenya does not realize is the fact that tribal voting can vanish overnight if the electorate are given a good enough reason to abandon it. As it is now, they already have 80% of the reasons (thanks to the grand coalition robbery government) and all a smart politician needs to do is ONLY 20% work. Did you know that Kenyans living in Nairobi in 1957 voted in a young Luo and ignored their own Kikuyu candidate? In that year Munyua Waiyaki lost badly to Tom Mboya in constituency where 90% of the voters were Kikuyu. So if it happened then, why can it not happen in 2009 or 2010? (that's right we will have a General Election long before 2012). And it happen again in 2002 when Mwai Kibaki received a landslide victory securing a very high number of votes from all over the country. Although that was courtesy of having an all-Kikuyu race for the presidency, at least as far as the big two were concerned.

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If President Obama could get elected in country where racism is much more serious than tribalism is in Kenya, then you need to think again. And don't tell me the US electorate is much more "aware" than the Kenyan electorate because a mob is a mob and for your information I can take you to parts of America where they have no idea who the former president or the current president of that country is.

Who has Ruto been talking to too much in private since the events in parliament last week? What name and cell phone number would you be looking for if you had access to his phone now? Let me make a calculated guess. It has to be a certain young politician from Gatundu who still has a serious problem with alcohol but has gotten away with plenty because of his famous last name. That's right. Uhuru Kenyatta. On the opposite corner of the ring, ladies and gentlemen, is Martha "Iron lady" Karua, George "coughing VW" Saitoti and that old man who has refused to go home and rest. You guessed right, retired president Daniel arap Moi. These guys are doing all they can to ensure that Ruto, Uhuru and company end up at the Hague. Of course Martha and George will part amicably the minute their objective is achieved. I think it is becoming increasingly clear that they might just win this fight, although they started as under dogs and most Kumekucha readers still view them as such. Remember that to pass a constitutional amendment bill in parliament, like the one required to establish a local tribunal, a simple majority will not do. You need an overwhelming number of "AYES" in the house. Do you see that happening now?

As I end my post today, let me say where I see the trouble coming from. As Uhuru and Ruto strategize to avoid the Hague, one option will look increasingly attractive to them. That of bringing down the house of cards called the grand coalition robbery government. Kibaki cannot seek re-election and Raila Odinga (whatever the Steadmann poll seems to be saying) is finished as a serious national contender for the presidency. That makes a coup much easier for Ruto and Uhuru, so they think. And of course if Ruto emerges in the next government, the worst that can happen to him over the maize manenos is for a commission of enquiry to be formed to investigate the matter.

Now the problem is that things are a little too dodgy at the moment for there to be no government in Kenya, even for 5 seconds. And that is where I see trouble, as much as we all want an end to this coalition robbery soonest. Secondly desperate people do desperate things and right now Uhuru and Ruto are desperate. Who wouldn't be thinking of the prospect of exchanging their palaces for a prison cell?

My thinking is that Kenya is about to give birth to a new republic but before the bundle of joy arrives, the birth pangs will be terribly painful. Mercifully it should be short. I have been right many times but I have also been wrong a number of times. Lets hear what the rest of you guys (some of you much cleverer than myself) think.

See also: Other bloggers agree that there is trouble ahead.