Is Raila’s Life Really in Danger From Terrorists?

Politics is a dirty game, they say. The main reason why they say this is that many times the end justifies the means when it comes to decision making in politics. Meaning that a politician will do anything to win an election and the same for their survival. And when I say "anything" I mean anything in the full sense of the word.

The local media made a curious report yesterday which appears in today’s dailies. We are told that the police are on a high alert over a terror attack threat on Prime minister Raila Odinga. We are told that terrorist kingpins are upset over Kenya’s continued support to America in their fight against terror. We are even told the exact nature of the planned attack (something unheard of when it comes to terror attacks). It is said that the evil plotters plan to bring down a helicopter that the PM will be traveling in.

Of course it is possible that terrorists have suddenly gotten extremely rusty and have allowed information on their exact plans to filter out (when we know even the people carrying out the terror missions never have the full details until the last possible minute). But it is also possible that this whole thing is a hoax designed to achieve certain political objectives.

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All my warning bells went off when I read this report and further inquiries amongst those who understand this business concurred with me. Terrorist are first and foremost politicians and the current situation in world politics with a brand new administration in Washington is NOT conducive to a terror attack anywhere in the world just now. To make matters worse the man sitting inside the White house now has a Muslim name “Hussein” and is much admired amongst a vast majority of the people whom terrorists will always seek sympathy from for their heinous actions.

Then to target Kenya just now would not make any sense at all. Further it is imperative to note that one of the reasons why the Americans got very nervous about a Raila Odinga presidency stemmed from the fact that his presidential bid received enormous support from a number of Arab countries. This makes it very difficult for me to believe that terrorists would want to target the PM of all people, even if they wanted to carry out an attack on Kenyan soil.

So what would the possible motive of this curious report be?

Every politician knows that public sympathy is an extremely powerful weapon. It wins elections and can magically turn the tide of public opinion. There are many examples where politicians the world over have used sympathy to win public support but let me give an amazing example from a neighbouring country.

When president Jakaya Kikwete was running for the presidency in 2005 on a CCM ticket, a curious incident happen during a public meeting in Dar-es-salaam. It was clear even at that point that Kikwete was going to win. But his handlers probably wanted to leave nothing to chance. So the presidential candidate was invited to speak and he just said a few words and then fell and passed out in full view of TV cameras and the mammoth crowd. Later he held a press conference to say he was okay and was probably just a little tired. He also added that he had been fasting. I was in Tanzania at the time and I can tell you the mood of the country changed dramatically after this drama and in the end rather than winning my a simple majority, Kikwete won the presidential vote with a staggering over 90% of the vote.

We know that politically Raila Odinga is struggling at the moment. Indeed he has entered the political struggle of his life. Some analysts even say that he is finished politically.

If we take these facts and put them next to the alleged terror scare on his life, things begin to make a little sense.

Because after all, any serious security person will tell you that it is a big mistake to reveal the fact that you are aware of an attack on a person you are protecting. The best policy would be to pretend that you have no idea. That way you will be more prepared. In the Kenyan situation we are even telling the terrorists that the PM will now be using military helicopters which are harder to target. Wow!!!!