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Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Raila And Kibaki Fight For Ngilu's Attention: What Is She Really Worth?

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To get the answer to that question we need to coldly analyze what she is capable of bringing to the table for either ODM Kenya or Narc Kenya.

Can she deliver at least most of the Kamba vote as a block?

The answer to that is question is "No". With Kalonzo Musyoka still actively trying to convince his community that he has a fighting chance of getting into State house, at best that vote will be sliced into two, and this will also heavily depend on which side Ngilu finally joins. The truth of the matter is that Ngilu joining Raila could cause her to even lose her parliamentary seat. It really is a terrible thing, but it is the truth. What has happened is that tribalism has reared its' ugly head again and naturally most Kambas are siding with your blue eyed boy in the current fracas within ODM.

Ngilu on her own is however extremely popular in Ukambani. One has to remember that she has been busy campaigning since 2003 when she realized that the Narc dream was dead. And we have the Ministry of Health payroll to prove just how active she has been in her campaigns.

This is why if Ngilu ends up in the Kibaki camp, she will probably be...

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13 comments:

derek said...

Well narrated. There is no need for further elaboration here. The simple fact is that Kaloki Ngilu, and as you have said it going against Kalonzo who is gunning for the presidency might work out rightly against her, and she should ask no other person than Prof. Peter Anyang Nyongo what happened when he stood up against a Raila presidency, fronting for her. It was a calamitous fault, only saved by the party nomination to parliament.

If the Kalonzo backers can spin a yarn around Ngilu’s opposition to Kalonzo, in the event she joins Raila, then things are deemed to be serious. She should equally walk into a casino and offer to play the Russian roulette.

Her best bet is, either remain with the Kibaki team, fall with it as it loses the control of the country, join ODM-Raila, they win and she survives, or she signs the proposed lucrative pension scheme’s dotted line if she feels that she is bold enough to go against one of their own trying to lead the country. Either way, she is between a rock and a hard place.

Like the Luhya vote, the Kamba vote counts much and it depends on how the politicians play around it. Given that there is a little bit of provincial math (as Americans call it) the Kamba vote against Kibaki will be countered by the Njuri Ncheke and Embu voters who have always seen reason to support Kibaki. Kibaki has the upper hand in this case against any one, gunning for the Kamba vote, if Kalonzo does not stand.

He has a few cabinet ministers, in ministries that touch on the Kamba problems of land, livestock and water…and Ngilu. If Kalonzo goes for the top job against Kibaki and Raila, and Ngilu is to swim against the tribal trend (all candidates base their foundations on their tribes) then she will find it hard to convince a soul.

On another note, Kibaki already has a bargaining chip and as Moi could have said ‘Mimi nilipatia yeye wizara katika serikali yangu’ or as Oloo Aringo at the height of Moi sycophancy said of OO about his position at the Cotton Lint Board, ‘Mzee, huyu Odinga ni kama striker wa timu, ulipatia yeye mpira, lakini badala ya kufunga, anarudisha mpira kwa goal yake’

All said, my heart goes to Charity Ngilu at this moment that she is in a Catch 22 situation. It is not easy for her.

Anonymous said...

Simon Says.........

Mine is short, Ngilu will stick with the sloth. She is better off there

Taabu said...

A day in politics last forever and all the analysis are based on previous premises. But who cares about templates in African politics. The next 130+ days will see plenty of motions many of them bereft of real movements.

We can only hypothesize what Ngilu is upto. Attempting to throw our ndururu-worth advice to her is akin to extending a handshake past the elbow. By the way we have the freedom to construct any hypothesis even if its formulation visits self-shame on our faces.

Ngilu in not naive and she has in the trade (read politics) for very long. What is more, she has fought wars men dare not face and to harangue her with inherited and/or adopted vitrol is naivity at its apex. Your mouth inherited falsehoods when you proclaim having political convictions during first lliberation (ala saba saba) while in lower primary. Speak of an apt case of inverted nostalgia. At least true nostalgia enjoys the benefit of reality and personal touch.

Meanwhile as we enjoy the circular political rides we remain oblivious of the damage it does to our ear fluid. No balance on completion and the world will be in apparent tilt (recall your kid days?). We are like the guy who fell out of the 50th floor enjoying every passing floor oblivious of the hard surface awaiting to crack-kiss his skull.

kalamari said...

What does Uhuru, Kalonzo and Shirikisho party have in common? All are part of Kibaki’s reelection machinery. Uhuru must vehemently support Kibaki if to only maintain his Gatundu seat. Doing less or otherwise is clearly political suicide. If he looses his seat, he looses the KANU chairmanship, never to be regained. This also messes up GEMA plans for 2012. This is the idiocy of democracy Kenya style……official opposition in concert with the current regime. Kalonzo is on record saying there’s nothing wrong with Kibaki’s continuance. I wasn’t surprised. Lately, baba yake is showering praise on his son. We also see his organization planting trees in dense forest with assistance from the government. Shirikisho is a party on the verge of endorsing Kibaki with colorful headlines. That was the point of its formation in the first place. I’ve conveniently left out Julie ‘growing short daily’ Ojiambo out of the equation because really I think she’s still surprised at the turn of events.
So the question remains, what type of anti-venom is needed to have Ngilu in the same camp as Kalonzo. If you didn’t pick it up, her latest tantrums and theatrics are closely related to the reality of the behind the scenes Kibaki/Kalonzo blossoming friendship. Guys, she wasn’t fighting to reduce her pay.
Her value to Raila is mostly cosmetic. Conventional knowledge dictates (as in this blog) that a weakened and punctured Kalonzo translates to Kamba votes for Kibaki. That said, politics is image and numbers. Raila needs Ngilu because of the perception that she is defiant to her employer…radical element. With Ngilu under him, Raila begins the euphoric sprint to state house.

luke said...

DISCLAIMER:-I've temporarily lowered myself and descended to the ground levels where my fellow foot soldiers here are located but only for a moment to make an impartial,maybe obvious observation then i return to my moral high e-horse

In the event of an opposition massacre at the December polls, (that is, if they remain divided as they are now) come 2008 shall we have any strong opposition the dawn of January 2008 and the incumbent is still back in power?

many like Balala, Ojiambo and Ruto in the ODM never really had a shot at the presidency-they were just there to make the outfit look number full, and whereas standing with the opposition may get them a return to parliament (greedily licking their lips-yes, more money more money) will they still want to be a part of the side that continually unsuccessfully rocks the boat?maybe...even Jacob waited 14 years for Rachel. then again maybe not

This has been said already here in this blog, but i repeat it for my point- the Govt of National Unity killed the heart of politics right across the board when opposition was included in the running of Govt-now the trend will be for our politicians to cast aside parties after every election, cross the floor to join hands with the Govt of the day and lay together for 4 1/2 years after which abruptly political parties which had remained meaningless will be kicked back into life and fuelled to run on personalities and tribes devoid of ideas or pulling power

Not a bad thing though, as maybe this is just what Kenya needs-maybe for the country to go somewhere more meaningful the only people who should be fighting one another are Mungiki (sic) and the police
may the best(ha ha haha) pumbavu win

vikii said...

Ngilu can add some value to Kibaki. Maybe she can deliver the Kitui Central seat to the government or atleast ganner a respectable 20000 votes for Kibaki. Her value to Raila is zero. It pains me when people attribute this to tribalism. U forget how nasty the RAila-Kalonzo wars have been. How does Ngilu turn around and tell these same people to vote for Raila? That will undoubtedly be interpreted as betrayal to the commmunity. Of course as u all know my problems with Raila have nothing to do with Kalonzo's candidature but the common man back in Machackos knows no other enemy but Raila. U remember what happened in Kisiiland five years ago? Those people had to vote for nyachae or Uhuru if Nyachae were to opt out.

Now people tell me why all this Kalonzo bashing? Was it a crime to leave the LDP? He is still gunning for the ODM nominations and so we must not criminalise his move no matter how big a blow it was. Some peole are even claiming tat Shirikisho was formed for Kibaki's re-election purposes only. Rashid Shakombo became a Shirikisho MP back in '97. Was that about Kibaki? This is a party that was formed in 1995. People, forming alliances is not the preserve of Raila only. If we are talking about voting out the government and Raila talks every day with a very senior cabinet minister, is that not more criminal than Kalonzo's talks with Uhuru or Ojiambo? Endeleeni kulia.

Ngilu'sroblems with Kalonzo is what I would call pettiness. While both of them are to blame, I think Ngilu is largely at fault. Of course they have all along been in direct competition but the problem was aggravated during the NARC parliamentary nominations. Ngilu mishandled those nominations in Ukambani and this caused the coalition 4 parliamentary seats to the opposition. In Kangundo, the LDP man was told the morning of the elections that he was not on the list of candidates. Kalonzo had to silently back the sisi kwa sisi candidate. In Mutito, Muthusi Kitonga was flashing the certificate even before the elections started. Kalonzo then backed Kiema. In Kitui South, Patrice Ivuti got more than 200% of what his closest contender for the NArc ticket got and he was denied the ticket. Kalonzo backed him in Ford Asil. Kaiti, Machackos town and Makueni were mishandled too. Ngilu then felt embarassed and took it personal. That's the major cause of the enmity.

Taabu said...

Thanks ndugu Vikii for the insight on PROBABLE genesis of the gulf beween Kaluki and Steve. But as you paint one bad and pamba the other ask yourself an honest question: DO YOU SPITE SOMEBODY TO WIN THIER HEART AND MIND (TRUST)? No need for an answer. Over to you.

vikii said...

I said both are to blame Taabu. I only said who the aggressor was in 2002. Both of them are petty. Just like the western province brothers and sisters.

David Mwangi said...

I actually think it is not Kibaki fighting for Ngilu's attention but it is Ngilu who is fighting for Kibaki's attention.... and Kibaki has decided to ignore her, hence her never-ending theatrics and upredictable statements.


Let's be honest, would Ngilu ever form an alliance with Raila after what has transpired in ODM between him and Kalonzo and the resulting feelings towards Raila in ukambani?? My guess is no. Not if she still wants to be in bunge next year.

Have you ever been in a relationship and the boyfriend or girlfriend becomes too high maintenance thinking that you can never manage without them and then you make a mental decision to just put the relation aside and not really bother with it any more? When they realize what is happpening, they try all sort of things to attract your attention but you refuse to bother them, and the more you ignore them, the more obnoxious they get?. Well, I think Kibaki has reached that point with Ngilu. Kibaki won't even acknowledge her theatrics by firing her as minister. I might be wrong but that is my take on this situation.

Vee said...

I've been missing in action for a good number of months... but now that I'm back all I can say is IT'S ALL THE SAME BULL... Ngilu moving to ODM or not means nothing but our daily Kenyan theatrics to keep the masses busy while the real wheeling & dealing goes on way up there... Don't be fooled... Let's keep our minds set on what we want for Kenya come 2008.

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