ODM Kenya's Biggest Mistake

Some inexperienced political analysts reading this blog have already handed over victory to ODM Kenya. No doubt these are intelligent guys probably even professionals in some field, but I beg to remind them that the most important basic principle in politics is that a week is a very long time in politics. 15 months would therefore be centuries.

In fact currently I would give the edge to Narc Kenya. Simply because ODM Kenya have already shown their strategy clearly. Now all Narc Kenya has to do is come up with a counter strategy. That's how the game is played.

Others would argue that all Narc Kenya needs to do now is wait for the results of the ODM presidential candidate nominations. There is almost certainly going to be some fall out. At least one major candidate will fall out and go it alone. It happened in 2002 when Raila's hastily arranged nomination process at Uhuru Park in full view of the public failed to mention the words "Simeon Nyachae Tosha." It is bound to happen again, whatever ODM tell us.

But in my view, the biggest mistake ODM have made so far is to start their campaign way too early. The other mistake, as the Jomo Kenyatta would put it, is to show the cow the rope you are going to tie it with (am tring to translate directly from Kikuyu).

It is true that the President had already launched his campaign in earnest. But what ODM would have done would have been to hold their horses and let the Narc ship march on for a while. As it is, we are now already into serious electioneering a full 15 months before the scheduled elections. Mark my words, a hell of a lot can happen between now and election day, and it will.

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The two tribes in Kenya most responsible for tribalism.

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