archiveThe world loves a good story and I love to tell them. Listen to these two that illustrate our political predicament in Kenya today as clearly demonstrated by the by-elections in Magarini constituency.
Let’s start in Brazil, shall we. Do you know how they catch monkeys in that country? They place some irresistible delicacy inside a transparent pot of sorts that is too heavy for the monkey to get away with and yet the only way they can remove their hands from the pot and get away is by letting go of whatever it is that is inside. So the monkey sees the delicacy and puts its hand inside the pot. Those who have set the trap move in and you would think that the intelligent monkey would let go and make good their escape. But the monkey doesn’t. Greed gets the better of them and they hold onto the snack until they are caught.
Another story, this time from nearer home. Have you ever tried catching crabs at the Coast? They are absolutely delicious. Now the fascinating thing is that once you’ve caught two crabs you can place them in an open bowl or bucket and go do something else and you can be certain that they will never escape. Here is what happens. As soon as one crab tries to climb out, the others pull it back in. Common sense would have dictated that the crabs help each other escape until they have put some safe distance between them and the dinner table of some human. But they don’t. They would rather all die than allow one of their own to climb up out of the bucket and escape.
Magarini demonstrated something very clearly that many analysts had previously ignored. And that is the fact that to successfully remove a government in Africa will take nothing less than the unity of the entire opposition. Smart political players would have quickly read the situation on the ground in Magarini with the distribution of title deeds and all sorts of goodies being dished out and promises being made and they would have had an urgent meeting between all the opposition contestants. Then at the 11th hour they would have all stepped down in favor of just one of them. But what actually happenbed? Even the ODM nomination was a sham.
It is clear that in the coming general elections we are going to have the highest number of political novices ever in the history of politics in Kenya, contesting for all sorts of seats. This is not a bad thing but in view of the prevailing circumstances it could lead to “crab mentality" and disaster. Even with a united ODM chances are that numerous other candidates will stand in the opposition and the effect will be that votes will be divided generously amongst all and sundry while the government candidate romps home effortlessly.
I would like to thank my reader here who first pointed out this fact, which I entirely agree with and see it as the single largest obstacle to an opposition win, come December. And as this regular commentator (who always comes up with extremely intelligent observations) pointed out, we can surely expect the same in the race for the presidency. My estimate is that we will be lucky to have anything less than 50 candidates vying for the highest office in the land this time round, leaving President Kibaki with a much easier victory than he had in 2002.
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