The world loves a good story and I love to tell them. Listen to these two that illustrate our political predicament in Kenya today as clearly demonstrated by the by-elections in Magarini constituency.
Let’s start in Brazil, shall we. Do you know how they catch monkeys in that country? They place some irresistible delicacy inside a transparent pot of sorts that is too heavy for the monkey to get away with and yet the only way they can remove their hands from the pot and get away is by letting go of whatever it is that is inside. So the monkey sees the delicacy and puts its hand inside the pot. Those who have set the trap move in and you would think that the intelligent monkey would let go and make good their escape. But the monkey doesn’t. Greed gets the better of them and they hold onto the snack until they are caught.
Another story, this time from nearer home. Have you ever tried catching crabs at the Coast? They are absolutely delicious. Now the fascinating thing is that once you’ve caught two crabs you can place them in an open bowl or bucket and go do something else and you can be certain that they will never escape. Here is what happens. As soon as one crab tries to climb out, the others pull it back in. Common sense would have dictated that the crabs help each other escape until they have put some safe distance between them and the dinner table of some human. But they don’t. They would rather all die than allow one of their own to climb up out of the bucket and escape.
Magarini demonstrated something very clearly that many analysts had previously ignored. And that is the fact that to successfully remove a government in Africa will take nothing less than the unity of the entire opposition. Smart political players would have quickly read the situation on the ground in Magarini with the distribution of title deeds and all sorts of goodies being dished out and promises being made and they would have had an urgent meeting between all the opposition contestants. Then at the 11th hour they would have all stepped down in favor of just one of them. But what actually happenbed? Even the ODM nomination was a sham.
It is clear that in the coming general elections we are going to have the highest number of political novices ever in the history of politics in Kenya, contesting for all sorts of seats. This is not a bad thing but in view of the prevailing circumstances it could lead to “crab mentality" and disaster. Even with a united ODM chances are that numerous other candidates will stand in the opposition and the effect will be that votes will be divided generously amongst all and sundry while the government candidate romps home effortlessly.
I would like to thank my reader here who first pointed out this fact, which I entirely agree with and see it as the single largest obstacle to an opposition win, come December. And as this regular commentator (who always comes up with extremely intelligent observations) pointed out, we can surely expect the same in the race for the presidency. My estimate is that we will be lucky to have anything less than 50 candidates vying for the highest office in the land this time round, leaving President Kibaki with a much easier victory than he had in 2002.
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That is the preface that no opposition reader read while pretending to have turned all the inside pages insideout. Ole wao wasiojifuza.
ReplyDeleteKenyan opposition are the worst student you can ever meet in any poltical class. They stand for nothing and mean nothing. No are shameless in parading cheap political tricks clothed in the most beautiful tribal gab.
Magarini by-election served no purpose both politcally and economically. It was another opportunity for some smart Kenyan to milk the governement with inflated tenders for poll materials. And Kenya has comeout of it politically and economically bloodied.
All the white lies from both opposition and govenrment politicians won't wash. The by-election is just but a glimpse of the rot we are staring in the face for the next many months before December when we will crown it all with another batallion on scoundrels. They have hit the home stretch guys and we are all passengers in thier jalopy.
With all honesty, I LOVE your post today.
ReplyDeleteI believe that all over Africa, the 'dictators' always win the elections democratically (if democracy means the one with the most votes wins). I wouldn't expect it to go any other way expect when we have a myriad candidates running against one, would you?
Last elections those who had been in government a couple days before united with the opposition to form a new opposition only four months before the elections and won by a landslide. Now, the people who were in government a few months ago (I mean ODM, aka a section of the late NARC) people have six months to just unite among themselves to beat the ex-opposition (Narc-K, au sio).How hard could it be?
My prediction: people will spend lots of money, makes loads of promises, and then we will end up with the same old, same old guys under new alliances in Bunge. Then lots of homecoming parties will follow through the next couple years to celebrate the change, before the government becomes opposition just in time to form new alliances for 2012.Big deal.
Proud 'this tribe' woman!
The opposition is not only going to have to fight the government for minimum reforms, but also fight the ECK in its present form.
ReplyDeleteIn the magarini by-elections; the ECK failed to fulfill its own constitutional powers that partly requires it to manage free, fair, credible and professional elections. The ECK also miserably failed to perform any voter / civic education prior to elections date thus contributing to the very poor voter turn out.
To add insult to injury, the ECK went ahead and declared Mr. Harrison Kombe the winner despite all the irregularities. I heard a very bizarre comment by one Mr. Kivuitu; That those disatisfied with Magarini election malpratices should seek legal redress from the courts, that he himself knows cannot just succeed with the little time left to the general elections and a compromised juduciary..
Now, if the ECK, inspite of all its powers, can be that helpless, then who has the constitutional powers to to conduct, supervise, approve or annul elections?
In case none of you have noticed, there is no difference in the goals, methods, ideologies, concerns, scandals, ilk, shame and pride within the two dominant (and now fractious) parties. In fact, ODM-K, Narc-K and the rest are bound by only one agenda; financial hunger pangs and the quest for power. Long gone are the days when one wanted to be an MP to effect change….you know..uplift the multitudes.
ReplyDeleteIn the absence of opposing dogmas, it’s a free for all for political parties (politics 101). Remember the DRC? Be prepared for a 20 page ballot.
Essentially, the problem is that all Kenyans are practically the same. We all dress the same (remember freezer jeans), eat the same (Ugali), we are all corrupt (if you didn’t bribe to get your passport, you will to get your drivers license). All Kenyans strive to make it to the US… even those who end up in India or Seychelles. Those who make it to campus are practically the same in thought (they all buy that boom box stereo). We all dread the cops.
The point is that we have all had the same experiences and have been molded, since the colonial days, to be of one mind. The confusion you see in the political arena is a result of the freeing of the mind. Suddenly we have been allowed to think out of the box and evidently we just don’t know how to act. We’ve realized that there are not so many ways to say, “I will bring you roads and factories”. What now matters is who says it loudest.
Losers will always cry foul and get all the 'proof' that the elections were unfree, unfair, undemocratic, or un-whatever the politically correct term at the time is.
ReplyDeleteAs an analogy, Railamaniacs like Kumekucha and KTN/Standard all whimsically discredited the Staedman polls whenever Raila came below Kibaki and Kalonzo. Soon as Raila 'beat' Kalonzo in the most recent polls, all and sundry were converted overnight into Staedman believers, publishing the results like they were a second-term presidential win.I'm bracing myself for such nonsense come the December elections, no matter who wins/loses.
ODM, unite!
Proud 'this tribe' Woman!