Opinion Polls Are Dangerous Things, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka

Yet another Steadman and Associates opinion poll indicates that Kalonzo Musyoka is the most popular presidential candidate in Kenya at the moment.

The most surprising thing is that Mr Musyoka has behaved like a political novice throughout this Steadmann opinion polls affair and has greatly reduced his chances of being the next occupant of State House.

One of the most important rules about politics anywhere in the world is that you do not let your opponents guess your next move. Moi mastered this technique and survived as President of Kenya through 24 mostly turbulent years.

The most dangerous thing that Mr Musyoka has done is declare his interest and even more dangerous is the poll which clearly indicates the person to be beaten. When the other contenders for the Presidency start working on poor Mr Musyoka, it will not be long before they leave his entire presidential bid in tatters. He has forgotten too quickly that one of the reasons why Mwai Kibaki is sitting in State House today is because the announcement of the single opposition presidential candidate was delayed for the longest period possible. All the time Kanu were sure that the opposition were not capable of agreeing on a single candidate for the Presidency.

By the time Raila was saying Kibaki tosha at Uhuru Park, it was too late in the game for Kanu to device an effective strategy to counter candidate Kibaki.

Will President Kibaki Hand Over Power Peacefully?

When former Nation columnist Mutahi Ngunyi boldly said in one of his columns 2 years ago, that he did not think that President Kibaki was capable of handing over power peacefully in the event of losing elections, many people wrote Ngunyi off as an alarmist.

Now after recent disturbing developments, including the raid on the Standard newspapers and KTN media houses, it is clear that this is no longer such a far-fetched suggestion.

Ironically Mr Ngunyi is now working for the Kibaki administration.

What is probably even more disturbing are the powerful forces working around the President. These are the same forces that cancelled a scheduled meeting between Raila Odinga and President Kibaki after the two met at Safari Park Hotel and mutually agreed on such a meeting.

This meeting would have been for the better of Kenya and those who cancelled it had their individual needs (which hinge on President Kibaki remaining in power) at the topmost on their minds.

Despite some well-laid plans, a defeat for the President is almost certain bearing in mind recent opinion polls. So what happens if the president and his men refuse to hand over power peacefully? What would be the consequences especially when you consider the fact that the wounds created by the referendum of last November are to heal?
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(See election 2007 predictions)