"The by-election in Ikolomani is a pratice match for ODM because it will define how 2012 will go".
– Hon James Orengo before ODM was floored at the constituency.
ODM bigwigs will of course be putting up a brave face this morning but if you want to know the truth, they are shaking and shaking really violently in their boots. And with good reason too because Dr Bonny Khalwale took on ODM head on and ended up re-capturing his parliamentary seat.
UPDATE: This lady who is a big fun of Kumekucha has posed the question: what are the sleeping arrangements in a polygamous home? Well, I wrote an article about that here in Kumekucha quite some time back. Read it HERE
AND here is a hilarious quote from that article: You can imagine the man reading the Nation in the sitting room and one of the wives approaching him meekly to ask him which of them it would be for the night. And then the man still behind his newspaper muttering a name: "mama so and so." Really hilarious stuff. But the joke is not funny for the women who have to put up with it. I have absolutely no idea how they do it.
James Orengo of ODM famously said that the Ikolomani by-election will define 2012 and although things did not quite go the way he and his colleagues at Orange house had anticipated his statement still holds very true. What happened in Ikolomani yesterday gives us all a pretty good picture of what we should expect in 2012.
Political party bigwigs in PNU and ODM just don’t get it, do they? Their actions during the numerous by elections we have gone through since last year suggest that they are a tad slow between the ears. Or is it just more comfortable to hang onto mirages and dreams of yesteryears when you reach a certain age? These guys have continued to spend huge sums of money trying to flex their political muscles at the constituency level in a bid to boost or retain their national numbers. But time and again the voters on the ground have resisted what they quite rightly see as an invasion from outsiders. They have enjoyed the cash bribes lavished on them but voted soberly. And that is exactly is what happened at Ikolomani. Out of the 24 constituencies in Western province ODM has no less than 19 seats. The assumption is that the party will retain its’ popularity in Western province come 2012. What rubbish!! It is the same dream some poor Kenyans have over the presidency gauging the popularity of one Raila Odinga on the 2007 General elections (which he won emphatically but was denied giving inspiration to that chap at the Ivory Coast who tried to do a Kibaki with laughable results). The political reality is that a huge percentage of Raila votes in 2007 were actually protest votes against Mwai Kibaki. Remove Mwai Kibaki from the equation and Raila loses a couple of million votes. Just wait and see. And so the 19 ODM seats in Western province mean nothing but then boys will always be boys with their silly games.
The chaps at Orange house in Nairobi who decided that it was a good idea to try and flex their muscles in Ikolomani to prove a political point have not woken up very well this morning. Admittedly the fortune spent by the party gave a respectable 10,702 votes to Bernard Shinali (the man fronted by the party) against Dr Bonny Khalwale’s 13,208. Some analysts reckon that this was a very close race. I don’t share that view, not when this was a by election with the usual low turn out, undue outside interference by idle political party secretariat hangers-on etc.
And it is not just the politicians who never seem to get it. Kenyans in big cities (a vast percentage of Kumekucha voters) and the mainstream press sometimes think that Kenya is the United States or Great Britain. Their sophistication tells them that Dr Bonny Khalwale, a polygamist who spends most of his time getting tickled by bull fights that leave poor cows gored and badly bleeding, is not a serious man. Indeed the guy mostly looks like a typical Ikolomani residence himself in the way he dresses when he is at “ingo.” And so they pass judgment and cheer the challenger forgetting that on the ground Dr Khalwale is extremely popular.
The other important point to take home from the by-election is that Kenyans should prepare for the era of the independent. Chances are that even the next president of Kenya may just be an independent. Khalwale was not an independent but contrary to what the folks at New Ford Kenya want to think, Khalwale’s win had absolutely nothing to do with the alleged popularity of the party. Ikolmani people voted for the Gynaecologist doctor cum bull fighting maestro and NOT a political party. We are bound to see much more of the same all over the country in 2012.
Why the wrong kind of president for Kenya will win in 2012
P.S. Nobody is talking about the Kitendawili I gave in my post yesterday. How come?