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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Great Panic In The Corridors Of Power?

The bloated cabinet in session: Great panic now in meetings

For days now, I have quietly analyzed and re-analyzed the current situation in Kenya even as you read this. I have talked to my most important contacts again and again. Admittedly information is very scanty at the moment but all the clues and signs are there. And they all spell only one word; PANIC.

The Grand Coalition Government is currently facing the biggest crisis any government in Kenya has ever faced. At least I can authoritatively say that this is the position with key players in that government.


There is an African proverb that says even a giant can be brought down by a very small pebble on the footpath and folks, I have good reason to believe that this is exactly what is threatening to happen to the Kibaki/Raila adminstration.

The source of all the trouble is one annoying five letter word that is the name of a place. HAGUE. The problem is the possibility of some very senior persons appearing at that place to answer for the happenings of December 2007 and January 2008.


Kenya has always been governed by a government that is in total control. And that control has always very much included the judicial process. The single telephone calls that have changed numerous court rulings are too many to be counted and is a story for another day.


But as you read this, the fate of key individuals in the GNU is in the hands of a foreigner and what has caused major panic in the corridors of power is that that individual can hurt Kenya’s “untouchables.” A phone call won’t work this time and neither will a cheque leaf with zeros that would make anybody dizzy. That is the crux of the problem.


So the major preoccupation now is how to make the Hague go away.

Let’s flash back for a minute to January 2008 when the then Ghanian president and chair of the African Union John Kofour jetted into the country with the full backing of Americans and the Brits. You will remember that this man did a lot of work shuttling between the two major protagonists. Insiders say that after days of sleepless nights he finally managed to draft an agreement of sorts that both Raila Odinga of ODM and Mwai Kibaki of PNU were ready to sign. But what happened next remains a puzzle to this day. It is said that when the document was brought to President Kibaki, he disowned it completely and said that he had never agreed to any of the points on it. And yet he himself had earlier assured Kofour that those negotiating on his behalf would be in consultation with him.

Still the point I want to make here is that the hardliners on President Kibaki’s side must today be regretting bitterly why they pulled such an embarrassing stunt on poor John Kofour who hurriedly jetted out of the country hours after this embarrassment. Had Mwai Kibaki signed on the dotted line, there would be no Hague today. The crisis that he faces would never have existed.


You see the moment the team of eminent persons led by Koffi Anan jetted into the country, then the whole issue ceased to be a domestic squabble and turned into an international issue where the involvement of the increasingly powerful and visible International courts at the Hague could NOT be avoided. We in
Kumekucha saw this very early and that is why our main writers all gleefully announced that it was now the Hague option, moments after the bill to set up a local tribunal to try post election violence perpetrators was defeated in parliament.

Back to the crisis at hand, the major worries for both Kibaki and Raila but especially Kibaki are as follows;


- That even if they are initially NOT indicted to appear at the Hague (none of them is on Anan’s list, I can authoritatively tell you. Send for my raw notes to see the full list) those who appear will be forced to mention their names in their defense and the trail will inevitably lead back to them. And that CANNOT be allowed to happen.


- The Hague trials will further splinter both major parties and turn everything into a everybody for themselves survival game. This will annihilate both major parties as political forces.


- Judging by what has happened in the recent past, even if the two principals manage to keep people from “singing” at the Hague, there is a very real possibility that the evidence already collected is enough to force both principals to appear at the Hague on some very serious charges.


If you doubt for a minute the panic in town over the Hague issue then you need to think about the following unfolding events.


- Emergency cabinet meetings have been called with the main agenda being how to avoid the Hague. All the meetings so far have reached a deadlock with no agreement on the way forward. What fascinates me greatly is the fact that although it is clear that if the GNU do not unite, most of them will hang separately, the two sides are not interested in uniting and it seems would prefer to hang separately than unite and get out of the current crisis.

- Key witnesses who testified before the Waki commission have suddenly started receiving death threats again and are living in great fear.

All this brings me to the shattering climax of this post. And that is the kamikaze (suicide) options being considered by the heavyweights in the GNU.


Option One:
Since there is no way that the current parliament can pass the much needed legislation to set up a local tribunal and thus make the Hague go away, the president can dissolve parliament and call for a snap general elections.


The problem with this option is that it disqualifies the president from running again and it would mean that the term he so desperately wanted to serve until the end (irrespective of the bloodshed that was going on in Kenya) would grind to a sudden halt. However Phil of Kumekucha said here in a comment that there is a possibility that Mwai Kibaki could come back as Prime Minister in a Raila Odinga led government (with the necessary assurances having been worked out behind the scenes). I have checked with my sources and they are not laughing when I suggest such a scenario.

Of course the main problem here is that it is being assumed that the Kenyan voters will play ball. I can authoritatively tell you that they WILL NOT. You see our politicians believe that anything is possible in Kenya as long as somebody can write a cheque that is big enough to cover the “costs”. I don’t think this is true anymore. Starving poverty-stricken Kenyans not withstanding.


Option Two:
The president resigns. Constitutionally this means that the Vice President will act for 90 days pending a general election. A lot can happen in 90 days, especially if you have planned for it all well in advance and written all the necessary cheques. The objectives would be the same as in option one only that there would be more time to influence how the general elections go.


My conclusion:
Things will never be the same again in Kenya. This is the beginning of a chain of events that will rid Kenyans of the current political class and usher in the much awaited new beginning. My view is that it is now too late for the political class to do anything to save themselves. My only fear is what has to happen before we arrive in the promised land.
Secondly I have just confirmed that what I said here months ago has come to pass. That is the major driving force behind all this is one President Barack Obama who wants to make an example of Kenya for the rest of Africa.

Posts On Obama from the past in Kumekucha;

Matatu riding president and the world economic melt-down

President of the US who rode in a matatu

Predictions of democratic nomination for Obama

All Kenyan blogs except Kumekucha said Obama had no chance

30 comments:

Taabu said...

Please leave Kuffor alone and stop misleading Kenyans. The prof came over for a cup of tea with his agemate unless the cheeky you wants to label Dr. Mutua a liar.

And while there why do you delve into the genesis of the present problem? Kenyans don't want that and if anything ICC NEVER prosecutes nor investigate cause and effects. It is the symptoms they prosecute and not cause just ask KK readers.

On Raila-Kibaki swapping shirts, I gues you and Phil have read too much of Vladimir Putin-Medvedev book.

Our bane is living beautiful lies and woe unto you for daring look the horse in the face.

luke said...

a house divided against itself can never stand but they are all selfishly determined not to go down without a fight even if it means taking the whole country with them. my helpful suggestion to them is that they eat humble pie and beg kenyans for forgiveness

Taabu said...

Luka,
Pie is never humble if it is laced with poison, dare you serve it to our dear LEADERS.

Phil said...

wacha zako Taabu. Do you honestly believe the Waki PEV cases will be heard by the ICC?

a day is a long time in politics. mabo bado. wach tungoje tu.

the proposal to establish an STK vis going the ICC will have to be resolved POLITICALLY. Deals will hae to be cut and like I always tell you, there are no permanent enemies in politics.

what is the role of one Amos Wako is misadvising the President ever since Kibaki took over the presidency? He is solely responsible for most of the scandals Kibaki has found himself in. Anglo Leasing, Grand Regency, name it.......even the current ICC/STK mess can placed right on Wako's doorstep. Bure kabisa huyu mtu, and I am glad Kimunya told him off during the acrimonious cabinet metting on tuesday.

Chris, point of correction; this government is not a National Unity government but a Grand Coalition government. There is a big difference.

Whichever way it goes, the message is loud and clear: IMPUNITY IS NO LONGER AN OPTION.

luke said...

Taabu,
any pies eaten at the hague cafeteria will be HUMBLE

Mbaruku said...

I want to see what Sam Okello has to say about this analysis!

Daniel Waweru said...

Still the point I want to make here is that the hardliners on President Kibaki’s side must today be regretting bitterly why they pulled such an embarrassing stunt on poor John Kofour who hurriedly jetted out of the country hours after this embarrassment. Had Mwai Kibaki signed on the dotted line, there would be no Hague today. The crisis that he faces would never have existed.

It isn't the lies; it's the incompetence of the lying. Annan was involved before Kufuor came: he said so himself in this interview. The plan seems to have been to let Kufuor try first, and hold Annan in reserve. Investigations into the violence had already begun by the time Kufuor left Kenya. Crimes against humanity had already been committed; no amnesty for them, which means that a night at the Hague, or severe legal sanction at any rate, was in prospect even then.

Your account of Kufuor's negotiations is a bit of a joke. No agreement about mediation was possible because ODM rejected Kufuor and Kibaki's offer of a personal meeting between Raila and Kibaki to begin the mediation.

Kristin said...

JUSTICE
By Kristin Gatwiri
If you are a Kenyan perhaps the experience you dread the most after illness is that of being embroiled in a dispute that can only be settled through our judicial courts system. Court cases in Kenya are known to drag on for ages only to rule in favour of the one with the greater influence or better lined pockets .Today the Chief Prosecutor for the International Crime Courts one Messr Louis Morino Ocampo will be opening an envelope that has been shrouded in mystery .‘The Waki Envelope’ which contains the names of those suspected to have perpetuated the post election violence by financing their political foot soldiers or through incitement. The fact that parliament has so far rejected the formation of a local tribunal proves that on this particular matter not even our venerable lawmakers are about to entrust this case to our unreliable Justice system.
While several thousands of Kenyans languish in poverty and grief after destruction of lives and property, the perpetrators of these crimes waltz scot free with no fear of retribution. Some have even benefitted from the demise and displacement of the Post Election Violence victims by inheriting their homes and properties as is the case in some well known Nairobi shanties. The whole scenario reminds me of a poignant passage in scripture , where David eloquently expresses his disorientation by the prosperity of the wicked.
He wrote ‘For God is good to the upright, those who are pure in heart’. But as for me, my feet had almost stumbled…For I was envious of the arrogant, when I saw the prosperity of the wicked. For they have no pangs; their bodies are sound and sleek. They are not in trouble like other men are; they are not stricken like other men. Therefore pride is their necklace; violence covers them as a garment. Their eyes swell with fatness, their hearts overflow with follies. They scoff and speak with malice; loftily they threaten oppression. They set their mouths against the heavens and their tongue struts through the earth.
Therefore the people turn and praise them and find no fault in them. And they say, “How can God know? Is there any knowledge in the Most High?”
Behold, these are the wicked; Always at ease, they increase in riches.
All in vain have I kept my heart clean and washed my hands in innocence. For all day long I have been stricken and chastened every morning.’
If you are a hardworking and honest Kenyan who took out loans to buy and develop your shamba which was razed to the ground in the aftermath of the last general elections and you now live in a tent that barely covers you, Im sure you identify with David’s sentiments.In Kenya, the honest man feels exasperated by all that he sees transpire around him. After all, isn’t this Kenya where if you have the funds, you will go scott free and even later come back and vie for a parliamentary seat. You see,retribution is for the poor, wale hawajiwezi. Indeed if there is a place in the world where the popular Swahili saying ,’Mnyonge hana haki’ rings true then it must be right here at home in Kenya. For there appears to be absolutely no justice except for the man of means.
Thankfully there is a God in heaven and how true it is that no matter how long it takes Justice does come. For as it said ‘Do not be deceived ,God is not mocked, for whatever a man sows that he will reap.’ Even David in time perceived the end of the wicked and envied them no more. ‘How they are destroyed in a moment and how they are like a dream when one awakes.’
David after he arrives to this great epiphany, gives counsel we as Kenyans would do well to take to heart even as we follow the Waki envelope with baited breath. ‘Fret not yourself because of the wicked, be not envious of evildoers. I have seen the wicked man overbearing, and towering like a cedar in Lebanon. Again I passed by, and lo, he was no more, though I sought him he could not be found.’

Psalms 73:1-14
Galatians 6:7
Psalms 73:19
Psalms 37:1-2
Psalms 37:35-36

Anonymous said...

The problem with armchair analysts is they write whatever crosses their minds,never mind that facts are substituted with whatever their masters want to hear.Who can ever forget the shoddy treatment ODM subjected one internationally reknown mzee,a nobel peace prize winner no less,One DESMOND TUTU!Why Mr.Kumekucha do you think his efforts amounted to nothing?While he was here even before Kuffuor.And since you claim to have so many sources,can you tell us exactly what transpired when the old man visited Orange house?coz all I remember is a dissapointed old man at JKIA,waiting to board a plane,headed back south.If they had opted to listen to him,would we be talking about the Hague option.

M-Pesa said...

He he he, I'm laughing to myself. Eti.... Option Two: The president resigns. Constitutionally this means that the Vice President will act for 90 days pending a general election.

This is tantamount to an admission of guilt and it can only happen in your dreams. Imagine an African president stepping down in disgrace, Lol that would be a first one.

There's no way Mama Lucy would allow that or even golfing buddies like Karume, Michuki and Wanjui. Imagine the disgraced Kibakis packing their sufurias and mattresses in full glare of the world's media while they await a date with The Hague?

It's gonna be along battle guys so just hold your horses. The masterminds are already digging their heels in for a long haul, plotting, scheming, backstabbing and lately, U turns.

Hehe he he, I'm still laughing to myself!

Mwarang'ethe said...

We have read what Phil has written. It goes something like this, Kibaki dissolves the Parliament and come back as a PM.

We have also read of the idea of dissolving the Parliament and then let Kalonzo apite kati kati.

Our views are these. This is nothing but, a dissertation of volunatry servitude.

It would be acceptable, if at least some of these people have shown:

- rare foresight in defending us in times of emergency,

- rare boldness in defending us from tyranny of poverty and darkness of oppression,

- rare solitude in governing us.

Clearly, they have not shown any of the above. That being the case, it seems that, we are chosing words to cover an emergency rather than the truth.

Consequently, we solemnly maintain before God and man that, it would be the most deplorable infatuation to aim, or aspire to the restoration or continuation of the old order.

No blessings must attend to such aspirations or ideas for God has already frowned against them.

Anonymous said...

If Kibaki is scared, I wonder why its ruto and is ilk of mass murderers who are all over news talking now about peace and what have you.... Kibaki gets scared and its ruto shaking in his pants? give us a break pls.

We know the mass murderers and more importantly they know themselves. A Kenya without justice, a Kenya where you can be killed for not voting for a tribal warlord is not worth it. Wacha ikae

Phil said...

Blogger Mwarang'ethe said...
Consequently, we solemnly maintain before God and man that, it would be the most deplorable infatuation to aim, or aspire to the restoration or continuation of the old order.


In that case, and regrettably you do not understand what politics is all about.

Do you expect Kibaki to just to sit there and be picked out like a duck? With the powers he enjoys in the current constitution, you can be sure that he has his people working day and night for a solution that will keep him and his family out of harms way.

Look at Charles Taylor. Are you suggesting that he took a first class ticket to holland and presented himself to Ocampo? Remember how far he had to go before he was apprehended and taken to the ICC? It was a very desparate move that took him to Nigeria before he was arrested with wards of dollars and in disguise.

Can you imagine Kibaki allowing himself to go that way while he has the all powerful constitutional powers that Tom Mboya created for Kenya presidents?? I do not think so.

Like I said before, desolving parliament will be a LAST RESORT. It will be used for buying time as another friendlier parliament is elected to turn the STK into reality.

Anonymous said...

THE CHICKENS HAVE COME HOME TO ROOST FOR THE ELECTION THIEVES.

The hardliners on Mwai "pumbavu" Kibaki’s side must today be regretting bitterly why they pulled such an embarrassing stunt on poor John Kofour who hurriedly jetted out of the country hours after this embarrassment.

Had Mwai "pumbavu" Kibaki signed on the dotted line, there would be no Hague scaring the shit out of him today. The crisis that he faces would never have existed.

Kibaki ni PUMBAVU sana. After he STOLE the elections in broad daylight and precipitated the Post elections violence - thru his blatant act of electoral THEFT - alifikiri everything would be alright? PUMBAFF!!

Siku za MWIZI ni 40. ZIMEFIKA.

Anonymous said...

Chris Kumekucha,

You have betrayed the trust of your loyal readers (and by extension all Kenyans who hate corruption) by intentionally avoiding to highlight what is obviously a criminal abuse of public office by PM Raila A. Odinga. I don't want to use the overly loaded word, "msaliti," on you, but I hope you can understand the deeply felt anxiety within the ranks of those who treasure Kumekucha and its original mission.

You don't need to highlight any wrongdoing by the PM if there is a good reason for avoiding it, but at least come out and say why you have gone AWOL on this matter.

Anonymous said...

As usual, it's tempting to dismiss your wild speculations with contempt, only you mention one thing that should have all Kenyans worried, which is the significant vulnerability of potential witnesses.

JR Alila Writing Blog said...

Kumekucha,
Good analysis. Kenya's politics will never be the same, again. What is important is how we mange it so that tribal "kingpins" do not sink with us. The power to nurse Kenya through the current mess is with you and me, and every Kenyan on the street. Never again should a Kenyan throw a stone at another because a politician's political interests are threatened.

Now, the wise out there:
Why should anybody named in the WAKI LIST still hold an office and title?
I want anybody holding a ministerial potfolio gone by the morning following Ociampo's disclosure of their names; otherwise the IDPs in refugee camps will have no hope.
It is true that we are innocent until proven guilty, but being in the WAKI LIST is troubling enough to cause any politician with a coscience to reconsider whether he or she is an asset or a liability to his or her Nation, Kenya. Stepping aside is the honorable thing to do.
PM Odinga and President Kibaki should have the will to let go their tarnished 'friends' and pick up new ones.
If it is political marriages that are being protected, then let Parliament prepare Kenya for fresh elections under a New constitution. A Politically realigned Nation will be a stronger entity.

deroo said...

Chris,

Just a minute ago @ 19.10 UK time, there is a report circulated to the news agencies from the Hague that Ocampo recieved a report from Amos Wako on Tuesday, the same day that the Cabinet had a meeting in Nairobi. It is a lengthy statement. I believe that guys at home might not have it but there are words tp ick from it. He has not named anybody yet...

Stay tuned

-Derek

deroo said...

Chris, from the statement by Ocampo, he has pushed the deadline for a local tribunal to June 2010 when he might then move in. Secondly, he says that there is no decision reached on whether to open an investigation or not. I will try to up-load it. and post it to you, if I can, but he admits that there have been preliminary investigations since 2008.
According to the statement, this presentation of the report is in line with the agreement he had with Mutula Kilonzo two weeks ago.
His office further says he is yet to receive materials from Annan "in the coming days". The materials had been "entrusted" to Annan, the chief broker in last year's power-sharing deal, it said.
"These materials consist of six boxes of documents and supporting materials compiled by the Commission of Inquiry into the Post-Election Violence (known also as the Waki Commission), and an envelope with a list of possible suspects."
The contents would remain confidential, said the statement, adding that "the findings of the Waki Commission are important but they do not bind the office; I should reach an impartial conclusion."
Moreno-Ocampo said the primary responsibility to investigate and prosecute the crimes remained with Kenya.
"If the Kenyan parliament does not reach an agreement to establish a specific judicial mechanism to deal with the problem, the Kenyan government has committed to referring the case to the ICC by June 2010,"
This is purely part of what has been witten in statement released by Ocampo’s office.

Mwarang'ethe said...

Phil wrote that:

Like I said before, desolving parliament will be a LAST RESORT. It will be used for buying time as another friendlier parliament is elected to turn the STK into reality.

Our views:

The game is up man.

NARA s (6)provides that, the Coalition,or in other words, the NARA 2008 shall cease to exist when the 10th Parliament is dissolved.

Thus, if he dissolves the 10th Parliament, on what ground shall he be a PM? In any case, to be the PM, as is done in most countries, u need parliamentary majority. Where ie he gonna get that? And do u have guarantee that, if RO becomes president as u have stated, he will play ball?

The point is this, if he is indicted/named by Ocampo as a suspect, the game will change very dramatically. The problem for MK is that, many people still do not accept he won fairly. If u add an indictment on this, things will move very fast.

You cannot compare Taylor's case with MK bwana. U see, Taylor left before indictment since he was promised safe passage. In Kenya, it shall be different if at all MK is in the envelope.

The point is, these guys are in a very tight corner. We do not see any escape here.

Mwambu said...

An interesting synopsis from your writers, but two things clearly stand out, in my opinion.

First, that the Hague option will further splinter both major parties and turn everything into everything for themselves survival game...

Well, we are already bearing witness to this fact with the ever wily Gideon Moi slowly but surely taking over the reins of KANU, knowing very well that Uhuru will soon be Charles Taylors cell block mate in The Hague. ODM is also experience a revolt in their ranks emanating from their Rift members.

Secondly, key witnesses who testified before the Waki Commission have started receiving death threats...

On this one Kumekucha should have gone a step further and highlighted not just the threats against witnesses but the numerous deaths of police officers, Mungiki members, Oscar King'ara, and other witnesses, who were expected to testify against one Uhuru Kenyatta at the ICC.

deroo said...

Mwarengethe, thanx for that analysis. The two cannot act separately and in case one goes away, the life of the 10t Parliament shall cease to exist.

Anonymous said...

This is the political gap kenyans have been waiting for.
The CHANGE we so badly need
This is the time for an ALTERNATIVE political party led by new, unknown, untarnished and PATRIOTIC and not TRIBALISTIC kenyan leaders to arise.
Out with the old, in with the new.
ODM PNU and their affiliates should retire or resign respectively as they await their fate in the HAGUE, general elections should be held and an alternative party should lead us normal, suffering and penniless WANANCHI out of this MESS created by this greedy group of gluttons.

Anonymous said...

Mwarang'ethe,

You are smart in the ways of the law but politically naive. Remember laws follow the direction of politics and not the other way. The laws you are quoting with so much "certainty" can be changed overnight to accommondate political realities - remember last year? Only the very NAIVE remain mesimerized in a cacoon of legal tomes while the feet of political armies shake the ground all around them.

Listen very carefully to Phil before you dismiss him, he has been in the political trenches while you have been inhabiting the library.

Anonymous said...

Does Raila Odinga only wait for it to be handed to him. It happened when he joined Kanu in the hope Moi would leave it for him. Said that Kibaki was to leave it for him in 2007. Had Balala, Ruto, Musalia leave it for him during the ODM nominations and now, it is said that Kibaki will leave the presidency and allow him to ascend to power. It cannot happen. Kenya is a democracy.

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:08 PM,

Your comment is a big pack of lies. Raila is not a man who expects freebies. He has fought galantly and bravely for all he has managed to achieve despite VERY MANY ENORMOUS MALICIOUS OBSTACLES being "placed" in his way.

About Raila waiting for Mwai "pumbavu" Kibaki to "hand" him the presidency. That is ridiculous! It defies logic and reason. How can Kibaki, a thief who STOLE the election from the rightfull winner, Raila Amolo Odinga, hand over what he STOLE to the person he stole it from. Wacha upuzi na upumbavu.

Anonymous said...

Its so sad that those pple who advised the inner circle for baba Jimmy that let us just steal the election and this pple (Kenyans) will protest for two or three days and then watatulia they didnt know it would go this far mpaka kwa Ocampo sasa ndio wanaanza kujiharia

John Maina said...

I would bet on Kibaki dying of stress from this matter than doing the right honourable thing of resigning as he has been tried/tested/failed as a leader.

Phil said...

Blogger Mwarang'ethe said...

Our views:

The game is up man.

NARA s (6)provides that, the Coalition,or in other words, the NARA 2008 shall cease to exist when the 10th Parliament is dissolved.


Who is talking about NARA?

By the time we were casting ballots on 27th Dec 2007, who knew that by April 2008 we would have a 90 member cabinet headed by two principals in a Grand Coalition? Who knew that even a week after the elections Kalonzo would be named V-P in half a cabinet after votes were stolen?

Coalitions are negotiated even before elections and nothing is to stop Kibaki and Raila engaging now, disolving parliament next week, elections and forming another coalition thereafter. Forming a government is an overnight affair if you have your friends closer, and your enemies even closer.

Do you see anyone on the horizon with the capacity to face and defeat a Raila/Kibaki joint re-election machinery?

Sometime last year, I intimated that SAGANA could have been a scratch-my-back-and-I-scratch-yours type of arrangement. In other words, Kibaki may well surprise everyone and declare Raila his heir apparent. This is not a far fetched thing to imagine. Have you asked yourself why Moi declared Uhuru his heir apparent in 2002, and not Raila, Saitoti, Kalonzo or even Mudavadi who were all in KANU then?

I know many may want to imagine an immediate opposing alliance fronted by Uhuru/Kalonzo and possibly Ruto. What if Uhuru is named RAO's running mate? What if Ruto refuses to leave ODM? There are so many what if's.....so lets just leave it there, hiyo ni siasa. Try and recall Uhuru's maiden budget speech, read the 1st paragraph and you get the drift.

OK. Lets wait and see what happens next, but I am not seeing Kibaki sitting there waiting for indictment from ICC. Neither am I seeing them waiting for the 10th parliament to decide their political fate. This is now high voltage politics. I am sure a lot is happening in the background, and perhaps things will begin to be clearer Kibaki's trip to Luo Nyanza next week. All you need to do is to watch who will accompany the President on one hand, and who will accompany RAO on the other, then you can put one and two together to get a sniff of whats on the agenda. The aim is to ensure an acceptable STK is enacted in Kenya so that ICC can get of our backs. And it will happen.

Watch this space....iko tsunami hapa mbele.

Taabu said...

Phil,
Nice points and hypothesis. Your take is REALPOLIK. But while at it please ensure you buy and read the REVISED Putin-Medvedev book, the first edition your read has been updated and revised.

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