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Friday, November 23, 2007

Steadman Polls: Raila & Kibaki In Tight Race

Steadman Opinon Poll Results 23 Nov 2007: Is Kenya headed for a run-off?

Raila Odinga: 43.6%
Mwai Kibaki: 43.3%
Kalonzo Musyoka: 11.4%
Pastor Pius Muiru: 0.1%
Kenneth S.N. Matiba 0.2%

The research was done between 17 and 19 November 2007 and involved 2,709 in all the eight provinces of Kenya.

Raila Odinga was earlier today asked to comment on these results but he retorted that he is not worried about Kibaki's improved rating because he is confident that "the people are with him".

The last few weeks has more of PNU campaigns and publicity activities that that of ODM. The latter is due to start its homestretch campaigns from this Monday and have already coined a campaign them " Real Change for all Kenyans".

Just a thought; if Kalonzo was to drop his bid and support Kibaki, while Matiba goes ahead and endorses Raila; who will emerge the winner?

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

Kibaki- but oh my God what a sad day for this country!We will have another 5 years of lip service. The amount of money they will steal this round will make MO1 look like a saint
He took 5 years to build Naivasha gilgil- sorry still closed off, so you can imagine infrastructure will be dream for most of us, western Kenya will be a 24hr journey up from 14. It will take us ordinary folks 3 hrs to reach our offices by which time we'll be fired already due to lateness. I know God listens and he cannot subject us to another Kibaki regime!

Anonymous said...

ATTENTION PLEASE!

MEMO: To all Kumekucha fans:

Let's not forget these polls were conducted BEFORE "The Dick Morris Fiasco!"

And the blantant day-light ODM nomination rigging through out the country.

Agwambo is yet to disclose his MOU with Muslims. He promised to come clean but one week on, he's still dithering! If indeed it was "harmless" then why not come clean?? Atsiiii..

There's only one way from the top...down!

Next polls will be disastrous for ODM, you simply can't sustain euphoria for over 2 months. It has simply taken toll on ODM faithfuls. PNU has a cool Ksh 1 Billion fund for publicity blitz. Ladies n' gents... You ain't seen nothing yet!!

Anonymous said...

For those of you who remember last year The dramatic last-minute collapse of the much-awaited ODM-Kenya London bonding mission was been linked to a visa hitch and the involvement of controversial preacher, Archbishop Gilbert Deya, The Standard reported.The UK mission in Nairobi denied Eldoret North MP, Mr William Ruto — one of the front-runners for the party’s presidential ticket — a visa to enter Britain.

The British High Commission in Nairobi said Ruto’s travel papers would have to be approved by White Hall, London. But it is unlikely that London could overrule Nairobi, sources intimated.

"A visa for anyone with a corruption court case in Kenya are referred to the Home Office for approval," said a source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

It will be recalled that the Home Office blacklisted former Cabinet minister Dr Chris Murungaru over his alleged links to the multi-billion Anglo Leasing-type scandals. The Kieni MP is contesting the travel ban in an ongoing case at a High Court in London.

Sources at the UK mission said Ruto presented his visa request early this week, and the application was forwarded to the Home Office for clearance.It was however returned yesterday stamped visa denied

Taabu said...

Answer? Nobody will be the winner and Kenya and Kenayns the princiapl losers.

Vikii said...

Why should they drop their bids? Dont they have democratic rights to seek elective office?

Anonymous said...

May the best man win. As Kenyans, we have been subjected to promises that more often than not are not fulfilled by our politicians. As a Christian, I pray that the candidate whom God has chosen carries the day, regardless of our voting patterns - tribal, issues based etc

Anonymous said...

Er ...seems the Orange's running out of gas...

Niko

Phil said...

Vikii, we all have democratic rights to run for any office we so wish. And so do the likes of Saitoti, Uhuru, Mudavadi, Ojiambo, Ruto, Balala, etc, etc. And so did the Mukaru Ngangas and George Anyonas of this world. It is obvious some candidates are in this race for egoistic reasons and infact I dare call them spoilers.

Beginning 28th December, we shall start receiving results from various constituencies and we shall see how far (near?) ‘democratic rights’ will have taken some of these so called presidential candidates.

Meanwhile, I am guaranteeing to you (and all other doubting Thomases) that Raila will be the 4th president of Kenya with a majority vote.

I am not surprised that after ALL the fake MOU propaganda, domo adverts, sustained meet-the-people tours, universities, districts and even unopposed nominations, PNU and its candidate are still unable to upstage ODM and its candidate from atop the opinion polls. My take is that Kenyans still want a new devolved constitution – and that – the PNU is not willing to give and this is where the election will be won/lost.

Anonymous said...

This is an opinion and should not be misinterpreted. I wish that this comment is posted.

I am Richard Kasangi Mutunga, I live in New York. I wish to state that I have followed Kumekucha for some time, and I love it. I am impressed by the qua.ity of arguments here and the way people engage in talks. Mature and some orher times heated.

I have observed the writing of two people VIkii and Derek. I am a sooiology lecturer in one of the colleges and I believe that I have been keen to follow so much that they write with more than keen interest.

It is with this that I offer this comment.

Two weeks ago, someone rated the writers and said that Derek is a good debater but a quitter. This is very true. In actual fact, I have also noticed that Derek is not only a debater, but is knowledgable in many things and like his 'teammate' Vikki they are aware of so many things.

I once read a comment from Taabu that despite Derek having very good write-ups, informed and even inteligent in his own right, he has this thing that comes up and he acts brutally to people he hates or has some disliking. My observation is that anything by Phil on Raila is met with such abrassion and this has been noticed by so many people who i talked to. In fact many people always want to read Derek's comments on a posting by Phil.

Many people will say this. Look at the Dick Morris thing, it took the Standard two weeks to write about Dick Berg and Derek had it. Months ago, about the Shirikosho Party, and many of you will admit it, he wrote it here. Even the Uhuru Kenyatta and Damiel Moi thing and Kanu, derek had it even before the newspapers. That is how concerned I have been with his write-ups.

I once passed my number of this forum but he did not call me.

I can remeber a heated argument here with Phil about the crumbling of the original ODM and the way he argued his case. That shows that the man is knowledgebale in so many things. That time, his predictions worked well, and one of the prints I have indicate that he blamed the Hummer before the split, and simply shows that he has that head-start in such things.

Yes, inteligent, good choice of words and informed. I have had two independent people not even Kenyans and not people who know that I printed the articiles from a blog and they say the man is good witha reservoir of words to support him.

What I really wonder is why, is such a brilliant man he has this hate thing that comes out. Like last saturday, he dismissed Ken Matiba in such a way that will make one turn his face. The other time he Dismissed Dick Morris in such a bad way, that if this was a daily paper it could have been sued for millions and his hate for the ODM Pentagon speaks even louder. Look at the way he treats Charity Ngilu, even without people talking about it, he has said and he said it before that NGilu will lose. And the comments after that. Very hurting at times.

To Derek, and Vikii, who equally has the same 'thing' like Derek and 'hate' for Raila and anybody near Raila I wish to urge you to at least be rational.

I will give my comments on Vikii's soon, once my colleagues hand them back to me.

I would really love to talk to Derek. He is a case to study.

Richard Mutunga
New York

deroo said...

Mutunga,

I don’t support Kalonzo Musyoka and don’t hate him. In fact I like him because he will be the next leader of official opposition.

I will not support him. I support Emilio Mwai Kibaki. The Developer, the man with the people, the man Kenya has, needs and will wish to have had after he leaves the office.

Thank you for your comments; I have taken them in good faith. I will stop calling ODM - Odingaism Dictatorial Movement, I will start supporting Kaloki Ngilu, and will not call Nyatanga a haven of gossip any more and I will not support Raila.

Okay? Then now, I want you to have a look at the latest opinion poll results. Is my man climbing? Inaendelea! kupanda. Na bado.

To be honest with you, I have no hatred against anybody at all. I play politics and like you, you are invited to politics. Did Moi say that he is the Prof. of politics? Yes. Me, I am not.

Weeks back, the polls were not going the Raila way, and they were dismissed as a government ploy. Then they swung the Raila way and people went gaga that Raila was already the president after he opened a 16-point gap.

When Kibaki hit the road, which was timed with the proroguement of parliament, things truly changed and it could be noticed that he was in charge.

There was actually a danger of him getting into politics earlier. If he did so and sorry to say, the Moi style, one or two things could have gone wrong.

Mutunga, before parliament was prorogued, there were bills pending his signature. He had to do that. It could not happen when parliament was not functioning.

Then, he decided to go for the opponents’ jugular. Things changed after that. In real sense, the matter on the ground was that he was a weak man, detached and fearing a loss in the hands of the ODM charade. I am sure that he was aware of all that.

But then, over the past weeks, Kibaki and his supporters have turned the tables on their opponents and areas, like Nairobi, which despite being a PNU zone, and was feared to have gone the ODM way has been recovered. In fact, I disagree with a person who imagine Raila Odinga will lose, that is the only seat that ODM can be sure of, the rest and at least five will go the PNU way.

If anything, one thing that the opinion polls have done is to sensitise the wananchi about the chances of Kibaki losing and the outcome has been the sensitisation of the people all over the country to come up and support Maendeleo.

Just ask yourself, the Kanu nominations in Baringo drew more than 20,000 people. What does that mean? A dead party, no. It means that Kanu is popular and Moi still has a say among the people in his large community.

Mutunga, kwa hayo machache, I thank you but I am equally sorry if you have misunderstood me. I don’t hate Phil or Raila. I hate people who lie. People who preach water and drink wine, people who imagine things. People who do things the wrong way.

Thanx

-Derek-

deroo said...

Mutunga,

I don’t support Kalonzo Musyoka and don’t hate him. In fact I like him because he will be the next leader of official opposition.

I will not support him. I support Emilio Mwai Kibaki. The Developer, the man with the people, the man Kenya has, needs and will wish to have had after he leaves the office.

Thank you for your comments; I have taken them in good faith. I will stop calling ODM - Odingaism Dictatorial Movement, I will start supporting Kaloki Ngilu, and will not call Nyatanga a haven of gossip any more and I will not support Raila.

Okay? Then now, I want you to have a look at the latest opinion poll results. Is my man climbing? Inaendelea! kupanda. Na bado.

To be honest with you, I have no hatred against anybody at all. I play politics and like you, you are invited to politics. Did Moi say that he is the Prof. of politics? Yes. Me, I am not.

Weeks back, the polls were not going the Raila way, and they were dismissed as a government ploy. Then they swung the Raila way and people went gaga that Raila was already the president after he opened a 16-point gap.

When Kibaki hit the road, which was timed with the proroguement of parliament, things truly changed and it could be noticed that he was in charge.

There was actually a danger of him getting into politics earlier. If he did so and sorry to say, the Moi style, one or two things could have gone wrong.

Mutunga, before parliament was prorogued, there were bills pending his signature. He had to do that. It could not happen when parliament was not functioning.

Then, he decided to go for the opponents’ jugular. Things changed after that. In real sense, the matter on the ground was that he was a weak man, detached and fearing a loss in the hands of the ODM charade. I am sure that he was aware of all that.

But then, over the past weeks, Kibaki and his supporters have turned the tables on their opponents and areas, like Nairobi, which despite being a PNU zone, and was feared to have gone the ODM way has been recovered. In fact, I disagree with a person who imagine Raila Odinga will lose, that is the only seat that ODM can be sure of, the rest and at least five will go the PNU way.

If anything, one thing that the opinion polls have done is to sensitise the wananchi about the chances of Kibaki losing and the outcome has been the sensitisation of the people all over the country to come up and support Maendeleo.

Just ask yourself, the Kanu nominations in Baringo drew more than 20,000 people. What does that mean? A dead party, no. It means that Kanu is popular and Moi still has a say among the people in his large community.

Mutunga, kwa hayo machache, I thank you but I am equally sorry if you have misunderstood me. I don’t hate Phil or Raila. I hate people who lie. People who preach water and drink wine, people who imagine things. People who do things the wrong way.

Thanx

-Derek-

deroo said...

When Oginga Odinga died, who said NO LOVE LOST? Who among the political leaders in governemnt or opposition did not attend the burial in Kango Kajaramogi. Kenneth Stanley Njindo Matiba.

Politics!

Taabu said...

Bw. Mutnga that was a SOBER reflection on the cogs that make the Kumekucha wheel roll. Lakini hapa sio Sunday school and because youhave chosen to trot the path please harden your skin for all flies/flacks to perch.

Derek and Vikii do have their takes and democratically so but trust me, they spare noone (Mutunga) included. So expect a nice one from either or both of them.

Otherwise most of your observations are VERY TRUE, Deroo is no average bloke. I should know better. He plies his trade with one singualar enthusuiam=KNOWLEDGE.

Anonymous said...

This is worth watching
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePMtHYW-46M

Vikii said...

Mwanaa Mutunga, Nayu mwanoo? Acha nikuambiage kitu moja hapa chali yangu:

Sio kwa ubaya lakini there are so many fun activities out there that you can very sweetly get involved in that I wonder why the crap you choose to spend your very good time coposing praise articles for jamaas here. There is nothing like courtesy here bro, it is a game of hard tackling. Next time spare your praise for your students.

You also appear to criticize us for HATING Raila. This is advanced double standards because you conveniently spare hard core Agwambonistas like Phil, Kalamari and Chris. I can reproduce comments done by these three bearded sisters against Raila's opponents (Our candidates)that will make our supposed hate for Raila look like ever blossoming love for the man.

Wasya ata bro? Come home December nikubuyie beer instead of embarassing yourself with cheer-leading.

One love.

Anonymous said...

mmmmmm.............

jezzzzzz vikii

deroo said...

Wasa Mutunga? Wasiata oyu. Uboo waku.

Mutunga, what do you call someone who lives another one's life. Someone more than a cheerleader. Someone who trails a fellow man and idolises him? A sycophant, I said that.

What will you say when someone tells you that Prof Nyongo, simply because he is in a party that they like was once proposed for a corrupt (ODM-style) UN Secretary's post. It is not true. You live in New York, confirm that for me. When Nyongo supported Charity Ngilu in 1997, he was crap!

I just hate bootlickers and people who blindly praise others. I don’t hate supporting. I do support Mwai Kibaki, but praising, and much more than that, including knowing food, clothing and other extras that only the family knows. That is what I hate.

As for Raila, his style of leadership, makes me feel bad. Remember before the ODM split, and the had a tiff with Kalonzo, Raila allegedly SUSPENDED and SACKED Kalonzo from the party. IT is on record. That is DICTATORSHIP.

Congolese Mobutu Sese Seko had a longer version of the name KUKU NGBENDU WA ZA BANGA (("The all-powerful warrior who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, goes from conquest to conquest, leaving fire in his wake!)

At this time, Raila was not chairman, secretary or even an official, he was just Raila in the party and a crowd puller, and football commentator.

Now, if I say that loudly, I do not know what I am saying.

If I say that James Orengo was sat under a tree, I am bad. If I say Ochuodho faced the wrath of Odinganistas, I Derek I am wrong. If I ask why was Ratib Hussein and Maloiy, former Nyanza Development Party officials frustrated out of their jobs I am bad. If I wonder what happened to the non-Luo in NDP, the Oja Ojamongs of this world, who were not rewarded, I am not wrong and yet there are some who were frustrated out of NDP, I am wrong.

If I ask, why were only Nyanza (read Luo) leaders appointed to the cabinet by Moi in 2001 and not the larger NDP (it was Luo anyway), I am bad.

If I say Raila will lose, I am wrong. Mutunga, I just do not like users. Now, everything Raila has done in the last one month has turned against him.

It was said here months ago that when the campaigns start or rather parliament is prorogued, things will not be the same, but was told, I dont know what I am saying.

I have said once and again, the things will not be the same for the son of Odinga when murk will be spewed all over.

By the way Mutunga, if I ask something about your home area, if it is close to Nairobi, there are these to girls who hike lifts on lorries transporting sand to Nairobi, that is if you know the Dandora route, from Wamunyu, Sengani, Tala and the environs, i will be told it is stereotype.

What about honey-hunters? I don’t mean you are one or a descendant of one, but I will be told it is stereotype. I am juts drawing an example! That is what I said about stone throwing. That Kioko guy from BC has repeated it so many times that it has lost

The reason why I concur with Vikki is that he thinks straight and real. Not a team-mate. He is above tribalism and a true nationalist.

One day i said that a Tanzanian paper wrote: OGINGA ODINGA AFA BILA KUWA RAIS in the headline, and the kicker just below read ...HATA KWA SIKU MOJA. Is that wrong or write.

Nice day Mutunga. Soma sociology Ndugu. Tell folks at home to remember EMILIO MWAI KIBAKI. Kazi iendelee... Wacha ya Howard huko Australia.

Anonymous said...

Hey guys am not a mathematician, but the figures just wont add up. has anyone tried to add kibaki support per province and Railas? it seems the totals do not match! Raila is 47 and Kibaki 40. How did steadman get 43 qnd 43?

Taabu said...

You cannot bake a cake, gooble it all down and shout at the roof tops about your culrenary skill. Self deception manifests itself in different shades and playing to the GALLERY is its symptom at the BASEST.

A simple test of objectivy is to hypothetically remove a single object from your take and still go on selling. Being obsessed by a one issue blinds you objectively albeit inadvertently.

It is one thing to stick from the crowd but quite another to have your perception expand your head. Youdon't earn anybody's respect nor do you add value to your persona by being abusive albeit sneeringly. Shouting and sniding at your nude parent only ear you a tag you won't be proud to carry around.

Everybody is different and you only appreciate this planet's diversity by accepting that simple fact DIFFERENCE. Extrapolating your prejudice and broadcasting cleverly to acquire mass motion is cheap populism if you ask me.

People are know best for the ideas they stand for but not waiting to strike their opponents at the slightest opportunity. Security in numbers is base logic not compatible with intellectual discourse. That is cheerleading in reverse which you may unwittingly condemn while eating from within without knowing.

The devil always secures the most comfortable seat in the deatils. An honest self assessment will make you appreciate people with all their warts instead of making them your punching bags. Joing the crowd by quoting their stereotypical epithets and denying the same under your own breath is the height of reverse logic and running on empty.

Support you candidate if you must but don't make others the subject and thesis of you tirades. Reasoning by contrast is cheap LOGIC. It is self delusion to imagine yourself a louder spokeman for the silent majority who in reality don't need your plastic tears nor concern. This was a classic case of turning an honest observation on its own head to further your selfish broadsides.

If your aspire to play messiah be one for yourself and keep it within the confirns of your persona. I rest my case. Be Kenyan, practice it and not just cheaply shouting it. Kenya ni yetu.

Makale slim said...

Why do people spend much energy hating Agwambo.Brothers and sisters please save your energy coz you wil need it to mourn the end of Kibaki's regime come 28th Dec.

Please don't take this as a punishment from the rest of Kenyans.We are just saying enough is enough!Look at KRA,KENGEN,treasury and all the powerful and influential ministries.Kenyans are not ignorant any more.

Districts tutapata even under RAILA (jina kubwa hiyo!)Why give other Kenyans districts and give Mt. Kenya all other resources and Jobs?

Safari hii kimeumana!Referendum kando.Even here in Bungoma ni RAILA TOSHA!
And if RAILA propagates tribalism like Kibaki.Wembe ni ule ule.Kenyans have woken up!

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