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Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Election Showdown Looms: It’s A Gema Versus Rest of Kenya

Flashback June 2004, President Kibaki watches as Cabinet Minister Raila Odinga greets Wananchi at Kenol Market while on their way to Nyeri for a homecoming party in honour of the Head of State. Wananchi had demanded that Raila address them with chants of 'njamba'!

The forthcoming general elections have been tipped to be the most competitive ever. The electorate is much more informed thus forcing aspirants to conduct issue based campaigns. The same electorate is looking at quality of leadership more than ever before. It is also apparent the electorate has had enough of the status quo and the country is headed to a revolutionary electoral process that will change the political landscape forever. In March this year, Chris posted an article on this forum titled Why We Are Headed for A Kikuyus Versus The Rest Political Contest. Observers believe that this year’s elections will be a fiercely fought encounter for the same reasons Chris predicted in March.

With only a few weeks to the D-Day, the picture is much clearer that in was back in March. Camps have already emerged and presidential nominations have all but been completed. The current regime has had to fight allegations of tribalism and nepotism since the referendum defeat. Not even the third and fourth force of Kalonzo or Muiru will make much difference. It seems most Kenyans have already decided who they will vote for and it just a matter of time before the current regime is replaced.

True, Kibaki holds an incumbency head-start and a three million strong GEMA votes even before the elections have started. But will that be sufficient to deliver the presidency back to Kibaki? Remember the voter roll stands at over 14 million and research indicates the voter turnout is expected to be more than 70%. Have all the voters been convinced that the Kibaki Tena ideology of kazii iendelee portends better life for them? Why should the present regime suddenly start creating districts, establishing universities and issuing all sorts of goodies to groups it had previously ignored? Arrogance that is exhibited by cabinet ministers has only helped to polarize the country further. Although PNU was meant to unite the so called Government of National Unity, it is not having an easy time doing so if the joint nomination circus is anything to go by.

It is also now an open secret that all senior non-GEMA supporters of President Kibaki’s re-election have their positions as MPs under severe threat in their own local 'strongholds'. A quick review shows that:

Raphael Tuju will never see the inside of the national assembly again as an elected MP. Not only has he publicly insulted the Luo people who form the bulk of his constituents, but he has also insinuated some of their leaders – without leaving a doubt as to whom he is referring to - to be corrupt. Nobody knows what happened to his PPP that was launched at the cost of several lives lost in Kisumu a few years ago.

Musikari Kombo not only managed to split the one-time official opposition party FORD-K with his ill advised policies, he is fighting a serious ODM wave in Webuye especially after the ODM leaders visited the Dini Ya Msambua shrine to re-enforce Elijah Masinde’s prophecy that the Luhya’s would attain the leadership of this country ‘through the lake’. Alfred Sambu is tipped as the next Webuye MP on ODM ticket. Three of Kombo’s former confidants (Shitanda, Kituyi and Khwalale) have defected from FORD-K to form new FORD-K and they have not been sacked by Kibaki. Infact FORD K has suffered defections of more than 50% of sitting MPs in Western Province and the party’s NEC is now composed of only three or four MPs with the rest being outsiders. That FORD-K is only but a Bukusu party, as opposed to a Luhya party (let alone a national party) was confirmed when the NARC dream was hijacked by the so called Mt. Kenya mafia in 2003.

Kipruto Arap Kirwa had defected to FORD-K with hope that the party would save him from the ODM wave sweeping through the North Rift. Little did Ruto know that he was jumping from the frying pan into the fire. Not only are residents complaining of insecurity, ODM is the preferred party for civic and parliamentary aspirants. Kipruto's Cherangany seat has attracted more than 15 ODM parliamentary aspirants, yet no one has openly come out to oppose him in PNU!

Simeon Nyachae just like Kombo, is facing an ODM tsunami in Kisiiland from where the bulk of his MP’s come from. FORD-P MP’s in other regions like Mwandawiro Mghanga has already defected to ODM. Nyachae is now having second thoughts about a health induced retirement plan and word on the ground is that he is sponsoring candidates to run on ODM ticket, in the hope that they will defect at last minute and live his party as the favourite in Kisii region.

Chirau Ali Mwakwere’s Shirikisho has already suffered a split because the breakaway new KADU has rebelled from mainstream Shirikisho and is apparently not keen on supporting the Kibaki re-election that Mwakwere has been insistent on. Coast province is not only an ODM zone it is also fiercely in favour of devolution that the ODM is propagating and the PNU castigating. Most PNU MP’s at the coast have very little chance of being re-elected, including Danson Mungatana.

Moody Awori is only Kibaki’s principal assistant as Vice President. In the political areana, he is lowly considered and is not playing any significant role in campaigns. He has been sending feelers to ODM after realising his days are numbered as MP. The discreet approach, made through his son Joseph, have been rejected by ODM. There are about 10 ODM parliamentary aspirants for Awori's Funyula constituency.

Similarly, KADDU’s Cyrus Jirongo claims he has ‘withdrawn’ his support for ODM although it remains difficult to see where that purported support was in the first place. Both Jirongo and Awori overtures were rejected because these two individuals are joining the train when it is nearing the destination and at the same time demanding to ride on the train without paying any fares, ie ODM does not allow corporate membership.

On the other hand, Gema leaders in PNU are Uhuru Kenyatta and George Saitoti. Both of these gentlemen habour presidential ambitions but they currently have been reduced to cheerleaders for the Kibaki Tena camp. Because they share ethnic origins with two of Kenya’s past three presidents, it is unlikely the electorate will want to vote them in when Kibaki presidency comes to an end. Saitoti has always been found with his pants down before general elections. He has a disadvantage of also representing an non-Gema area in parliament and he is also facing an acid test at the hands of one Moses Ole Sakuda who is indigenous Maasai in Kajiado North.

Therefore, with most of Kibaki’s non-GEMA lieutenants already tipped to be diefeated at constituency level, the president is now staring at a near replica of the referendum voting patterns and a defeat of the presidential vote. To make matters worse, a referendum for a new constitution will follow shortly after the general election and it will find the voters still in the mood to ‘teach the Kibaki camp a lesson’.

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chris. why are you blocking all my postings yet you allow tribal postings by Phil Othieno? Do you think it will make me write pro- Idi Amin postings? I am a nationalist and can never bow to tribal kings. Kioko. BC, Canada. kazi iendelee.

njoro- mzee wa kijiji said...

Phil - i really admire your ingenuity, but you are not pulling as many legs with this one. This has all along been the strategy of ODM and the its flag bearer - To isolate the Gema from the rest of Kenyans - and i can assure you he has top marks for this. Let me share with you some short observation on the same - Sometimes last month i did some short consulting assignment in Kwale district (kinango and Kubo divisions) while lazing about in the evening i joined some patrons in the local village pub, as is everywhere in Kenya today - politics did take centre stage. While all the speakers acknowledged they could see and feel what the government has done (stone walled classrooms have been done in most schools, books and pencils etc are provided to children, 3 dams have been done, kinango is a district (assuming inaleta maendeleo) what amused me was what came after all this - " hii ni mifupa to nyama ziko baara na wakikuyu". This was a loaded statement. Infact some said while they produce mkorosho the factory is in Thika ( not sure of this) thats why they killed(literary)the kilifi one. Too much on this - The point is with the above thoughts, definetely ODM has isolated the GEMA. The sad thing is Kibaki(rather than for his golf friends who got prime appointments) the average kikuyu has not benefitted from his presidency as people are made to believe. What has benefitted most with KCC revival (the same comunity that initially sold it o itself), KMC revival, we have lost more young men through mungiki, clashes are ongoing etc. It really hurts when you know you have worked so hard for what you have only for people to brand you a beneficiary of Kibaki goodies. Central may have benefitted more during the Moi era than in the last 5 years.

The Majimbo debate is also a calculated political move by ODM to isolate the community from the rest of Kenyas even further.Its only central thats against it - not becuase of what is or not, but rather because as a community we are spread everywhere, we wonder when they are thrown out what will happen - we have seen it with likoni and tribal clashes. Am pretty sure at heart, ODM does not intend to implement it, rather,its for short term political expediency. The mechanics of implementation and the accompanying dynamics will negatively impact the four major tribes in Kenya.

The central Kenya elite are slowly coming to the realization that a Raila win cannot be wished away - but on the same breadth realize a non kikuyu at the top could be good for the community. You cannot have political and economic power at the same time. Raila odinga may be the best president the Gema has ever heard if he does not temper with the economic bedrock of the region. Maybe he has just been misunderstood.

Anonymous said...

you got it all wrong on Nyachae.
Am a Kisii and there is nothing like ODM wave in Kisiiland.

majority of kisiis will never vote for Rala and he know why!

Angry Kisii man

Anonymous said...

Kikuyu haters will never go to heaven

Taabu said...

Bigotry can come smartly clothed as a gem. Whether this piece is meant to inform or stroke embers is not for me to judge. But whether it is true it smacks off vengeance which has no admirable trait. Maybe you WARNING would have been framed so:

......"Deadly mountain FLU known as PNU whcih affects the brain has been reported in Central Kenya. The region under QUARANTINE and people in other parts of Kenya are advised to take ODM pills. One full ORANGE for the next 50 days to avoid infection."

Anonymous said...

Phil...you are a dreamer bro. Dream on and wake up on 28th Dec

Anonymous said...

I'm Gema Damu and proud of it. However, I think it's true Raphael Tuju will be taken to the alter and sacrificed by his unthankful constituents. This will be very, very sad indeed. The Demise of a very good gent. Tuju's Rarieda constituency, no doubt has been the most developed area in Nyanza over the last 5 years. Tuju has managed to inject many development projects funded by his wazungu friends as a result of his many overseas trips as foreign affairs minister and also CDF.

If one was to be judged on his devt record, Tuju should be the first MP in Kenya to be re-elected. But since he has refused to kiss Raila's boots, he will almost certainly be shown the door. This is the primitivity of our so called demo-crazy!

Anonymous said...

Saitoti is facing no acid test. FYI, If Moses Ole Sakuda is indigenous,then Saitoti is indigenous too cos Sakuda,just like Saitoti, has a Kikuyu parent and has married a Kikuyu wife.Most votes in Kajiado North are in Ongata Rongai, Kiserian, Ngong and Kitengela and these areas are highly populated by outsiders mostly Gema,not Maasai.Be informed.

Anonymous said...

taabu. please write some sense. at least for once. you seem to act like a spoiled school boy.

Vikii said...

This is what I call fiction. Phil is gifted with a very fertile imagination.

First of all, no wananchi "had demanded that Raila addresses them with shouts of Njamba". A day before the day this picture was taken, Raila had been in Uganda with a couple other ministers. When the president decided to head home, he summoned Raila back so that the latter could accompany him on his journey to Nyeri. I remember the nation even introduced a new angle in this story by saying the president had recovered and was taking charge of the country against the wishes of his close ministers who were agents of exclusivity. You would have been correct if you said 'wananchi gave Raila a standing ovation with shouts of njamba'. Let's move on.

While I have no doubt that Chirau Ali Mwakwere and Ralph Tuju will lose their parliamentary seats,I am persuaded to read a lot of wishful thinking in your allegations that Awori, Kombo and Nyachae will lose their parliamentary seats. And assuming they would (just for the sake of argument), by what margin will Joe Nyaga win his? Phil, if Kombo loses his seat by margin X, I am telling you for free that Charity Ngilu will lose hers by 2X. People like Najib may have obtained a life line by duping the muslims but if they can have any meaningful influence in the larger Coast province, only time will tell.

There is a 75% probability that Uhuru Kenyatta will be your fourth president, Phil, even though you seem to believe that he should be rejected by the voters on the basis of his ethnicity.

I cannot deny that Raila Odinga will beat Mwai Kibaki in Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley, Coast and North Eastern. But in all these provinces apart from Nyanza where Kibaki will get about 15% of the vote, Kibaki will get more than 35%. So how this translates to Central Kenya vs Rest of Kenya, I do not understand.

One quick question Phil. Do you remember what you said when Jirongo declared his support for Raila or do you want me to remind you? Are people only politically relevant if they are supporting Raila? Elections will not be held in your heart nor will they be held in your head, Phil.

kie said...

Phil. i think there first started the Raila Forbia and now the Raila Mania. i think you had them all. i would like to prove you wrong come next year coz am not a Gema and where i come from majority are pro Kibaki.

Phil said...

Wacha siasa ya pesa nane Vikii. The Raila/Kibaki image was taken after the Head of State himself intervened when Chris Ndarathi Murungaru as MC attempted to deliberately exclude Raila from the list of speakers. It has nothing to do with Uganda trip - Raila was accompanying the president because of public demand - otherwise state house mandarins arranged the calendar so that the event could fall on a day Raila was out of the country.

The earliest Uhuru Kenyatta can be president of this country will be 2037. It will be a GEMA versus the rest because Kibaki will bitterly find himself in opposition benches when parliament re-opens in February 2008 with MPs from the GEMA region alone.

Tell me Vikii, why is Raila leading ALL presidential opinion polls in all provinces but Central and Eastern for the last four months? As a 'development conscious' president, I expected Kibaki to be on top of opinion polls in all provinces by no less than 50%. Oh, I remember, him and Kalonzo were leading opinion polls before Raila officially entered the race!

Jirongo is a KADDU Chairman. However, his demands are unreasonable. Besides, party constitution cannot be changed simply because of him. This is a mass movement - even KANU and Uhuru Kenyatta could not keep up.

In conclusion Vikii, remember the PNU joint nominations are falling apart because cabinet ministers have come to face the stark reality. They cannot beat most of of the aspirants at any fair political contest. In the unlikely event that Charity Ngilu and Joe Nyagah loose their seats by margin 100X, they still will hold their heads high because they were bold enough to tell off their boss for defrauding Kenyans!

kalamari said...

Phil, of Santa-Kibaki-Claus, you left out one unwrapped gift; Public Holidays! As I write, the grapevine is ripe with the spectacular unveiling of 'Lucy Kibaki Day' (a day when women can go to work in pajamas while those staying at home remain in bikinis). What baffles me is Kibakis insistence on election-time-gifts when the same plot failed during the referendum campaigns. Following his development methods, Kenya has a chance of becoming a super first world country in a very short time…..provided elections are held each year.

Vikii said...

And if Raila was out of the country, as you just acknowledged, how did public demand get him back to the country and on the road the same day? Just look at what you just wrote, if state house really didnt want him in the trip, how did Raila, a cabinet minister on official duty in Uganda leave the rest of the delegation and head to Nyeri?

Anonymous said...

Well, I'm neutral (tribe wise), and where I come from (pastoralist), Kibaki is really cooked. Mind you that most pastoralists are Muslims and you only need to look at whom has Kibaki been trying harder than hard to woo since he formed PNU. It is the Muslims, so much so that he is staring at defeat that he declared Muslim holidays national holidays. Imagine when SUPKEM requested him to do this in 2003, 4 and 5, he rejected. This speaks volume. That said, I reject that Kikuyus (ordinary people) have benefited much from Kibaki. I remember Mutahi Ngunyi saying in 2003 when signs of corruptions started to emerge that the Kikuyu farmer will not benefit from Kibaki. I also reject the idea that Kibaki was a success and Kazi ya mamluki iendelee. However, looking at the Kenyan demographic distribution and the political rhetoric, it is GEMA that's isolating itself. When they say Raila is a hero, and later say he is a devil bcoz he is not campaigning for us, every moral being gets angry at this devilish idea. How can you say he is good when you get what you want and bad when not? Again, why was he clapped and ululated in Mt. Kenya in 2003 and stoned now? Can't you listen to him and later vote for Kibaki? The other thing is Kibaki has isolated the GEMA. He has openly shown that he can't trust but a GEMA. We don't need to list who is who in all the sensitive ministries, security apparatus and economic chambers. Again, GEMA Mps are isolating the community, they go Mt. Kenya and say "they are losing the Presidency" and therefore every GEMA however sick he/she is must vote. How do you expect other Kenyans to react? Since when did GEMA own the Presidency? Is this a Kenyan Institution or a tribal outfit? About Majimbo, GEMA alone is against it, but when GEMA MPs met in Naivasha in 2001, what was their resolution? "Central MPs now support Majimbo" That was the Daily Nation headline. Now they are telling Kenyans a different story. It is like the Raila the hero (when he campaigns for us) and the devil when he campaigns against us. I wish GEMA will understand it is this mentality that’s alienating many neutral Kenyans. Now let’s see what Kibaki does about Kihara Muttu and Kivuitu. It will be the stroke that will break the camel's back.

Vikii said...

I am told a rejuvenated Derek is back in town, complete with a brand new label and a fresh passion for truth. Prophets of doom like Kalamari had gone on to implore that he 'had abadoned a sinking ship'.

Welcome back Derek. I have been doing your slice of the job. I am in ODMK, you know? So please take up the PNU flag. I can confidently tell you that the truth has not been missing in this blog in your absence despite the spirited efforts by Chris, Kalamari and Phil to distort it.

Phil, by the way what happened to your Kitui Rally? The happenings of Meru must have send your back to the drawing board, didnt they?

Phil said...

Thank you very much Njoro Mzee wa kijiji. Like anon above is saying, GEMA has succeeded in isolating itself. The likes of Vikii and Derek are not doing any jusstice to Gema. They think Kenya only exists in their own imaginary cocoons. Remember one senior GEMA mafia shouting that demands constitutional reforms were for removing KANU/Moi from power? Well, well, time for chest thumping is gone, and they have to go down and beg for votes.

Thanks Kalamari for that nice one. Maybe even a Mungiki Beheading Week is also coming!

Anonymous said...

My comments here go to Njoro Mzee wa Kijiji........ Very candid observations. I salute you!

Rabet.

Anonymous said...

Let us take a moment and reflect on the opportunity that is presenting itself to Kalonzo at the moment. With the current confusion within the PNU parties, a well planned campaign in Central Kenya can be very fruitful for Kalonzo. Kalonzo should reach out to Central Kenyan voters who are disillussioned with Kibaki but who at the same time cannot vote for Raila. A foothold in Central will help Kalonzo get a more national outlook and give him greater barganing power after this elections and in 2012. If at all possible he should open a window for Central Kenya aspirants to appy for nominations through his party now at a higher fee. Most of these aspirants are popular and might me rigged out in the PNU nominations. Vikii and other Kalonzo supporters, what is your take on this?

Vikii said...

I will once again remind you Phil none of those people you are alleging "see Kenya in their GEMA cacoons" is GEMA. It is simple, you do not have to be GEMA to differentiate unquestionable truth from blatant propaganda.

The world over, including the US which is hailed as the worlds's greatest democracy, the foreign affairs minister(secretary of state, if you like)is the second most powerful office bearer after the president. Now tell me, when Did Raphael Tuju become a GEMA man Bw Anonymous? When did Moody Awori,the country's vice president become a GEMA man? Paul Sang and John Katuku, two individuals who hold key dockets in this administration are not from the GEMA comunities. Moses Akaranga, the minister of state in the office of the president in charge of the entire civil service is Luhya.

And again, who determines who to occupy what office? The so called GEMA is a grouping of four communities, which comprise almost 40% of Kenya.When Raila and his propaganda machine demonise them, you pick up from there without bothering to ask yourself whether they, as Kenyans, and based on their numeric proportion deserve whatever appointments they get. I am no brief holder for them but the truth of the matter is that they have been getting alot of unnecessary stick. Kenyans, being who they are will want to believe what they hear rather than what they see and you know what? that's not brightness.

Anonymous said...

Where that the conman in Jirongo want to go to. the party of economic pillage, tribalists. losers and Kamiti material is ODM. Jirongo, tafadhali, remain where you are. On Janury 2, we would like someone to be swearing in for five years as a minister. Not one who will be cut short midsrteam by a judgement. Derek

Anonymous said...

Kalamari, my ship, MV Kibaki is ruling the waves, brother. Safari hii, hata Phil atalipa rent Kibera. Kutangulia siyo kufika na akufaae kwa dhiki ndiye rafiki (Nyachae, Uhuru, Kirwa, Mzee Moi wengineo). Tell me you guys, has it occured to you that a president had everythuing up his sleeves to dole them at the last minute. It simply means, the government has been working and salalaa, wamepatikana.

I read that GEMA communities are hunting like a pack. Then, the Kavirondo (I am not copying Kioko, are also hunting like a pack. But it is not good when the Luo pack-hunt! they are a special breed and none of them should join another party not supported by Raila!

Then we have the disintegrated Luhya, then the split Kalenjins, and why not, the undecided (as usual) Simba Wanje in Shirikisho. If you count that, why not rejoice that the BEST of PRESIDENTIAL candidates is on the roll. Emilio mpaka 2012

I fear for my Joseph Munyao and I have no regrets for Kaluki Ngilu, she will definitely be looking for a secretarial job in January. -Derek-

As for Phil, please, you have shown rare steadfastness and I believe that you will have a great job in Uhuru 2012 that starts on January 2 2008.

magothe said...

So is change in the ODM malaika mode about going back to the Moid days when the "favoured" received direct nominations?
How about ETR? KQ's 75%? And the MOU that never was but is now?

Its the economy stupid.

Kerich said...

The whole GEMA vs Kenya debate is a tad too base for me to engage in but I say, Kalamari you had me rolling and laughing to tears with your 'Santa-Kibaki-Claus' Post. Much to my chagrin and many mind wrenching dissections later, I have realised that the incumbent will probably be sworn back in early next year not because he won in a fair poll but because of a combination of poll manipulations and the current shameful hoodwinking of the electorate with a tirade of goodies. Indeed im despondent for mother Kenya but let the birds fly where they may. Each of us have but one vote.

Taabu said...

Vikii, you OWE a crate of .... for fishing out Deroo. I won't tell you from where but all I can say is that the chap was down and out when Jol's goose was stewed. But I managed to convince him to plant a smile on his face with the brand new Ramos. I have already purchased my price and debited it to your account. Thank God Deroo lost the fight but not the war. He is back and firing all cylinders.

Anonymous said...

The next Parliament ought to pass retroactive hate crime laws to ensure that rabid tribalists such as Phil and his cohorts and any other indiviuals that attempt to create ethnic disharmony and conflict amongst society can spend the remainder of their days behind bars where they rightfully belong. Kenyans should stand up and say no this hateful nonsense that Phil is trying to disseminate.

Anonymous said...

There is no need for all this hulla baloo - the referendum proved to kenyans who were the tribalists - whether it is gema or the rest of kenya as should uhuru kenyattas stance to back kibaki - in general even gema religious leaders have of late been saying amazing things and claiming biblical authority - please - tafadhali - a whipping of pnu will wake people up and will unite the nation - because it is apparent that most gema people dont believe that other kenyans care for them simply because they dont care for other kenyans - i say that with sincere concern and sadness - to back pnu after kupelekwa bafu by gnu during referendum is to be foolish - fool me once shame on you - fool me twice shame on me - fool me thrice! pumbavu!!!

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