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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Which Political Grouping Will Win The Most Parliamentary Seats?

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I usually don’t give too many predictions but here is one for you. The current political situation will change dramatically before we go to the polls. I will not go further to be as arrogant as some commentators here who are fond of adding statements like; you can take that to the bank.

This time round, it is the electorate who will set the agenda and you can be sure that corruption will be very high on the list of issues that will dominate this election with the Kroll report and other reports that have not yet been released dominating center stage.

Ultimately these will be the elections where Kenyans will vote strongly against corruption.

However the current reality on the ground is that the same party whose presidential candidate seems to be leading in polls, are also currently set to win the highest number of parliamentary seats if the polls were to take place today (but please don’t get too excited, I told you that things are bound to change.)

The issue of predicting which political party will win the majority of parliamentary seats is fairly simple in Kenya. You just need to look at...

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7 comments:

Vikii said...

Mwanzo kabisa lazima niseme kuna ndugu zangu wawili wana nia mbaya dhidi yangu. Nimepata fununu hapa na pale ya kwamba Kalamari na Phil wameamua kunimaliza kisiasa. Hawa wanafiki wameanza porojo na fitina ili kulichafua jina langu nzuri. Jama zao hazitafua dafu kwa sababu niko na imani Wakumekucha na wakenya kwa jumla wako nyuma yangu. Hatutakubali kamwe watu wachache wavuruge amani hapa kwa kueneza propaganda kuhusu mtu ambaye anaheshimiwa sana katika jamii. Nduru za kuaminika zimenieleza kuwa hawa wanafiki wanawasiliana kutumia rununu zao na wamesikika wakitaja machafu ambayo wanapanga kuandika juu yangu hapa kesho alfajiri. Msiwaamini hawa watu kama vile mjuavyo mimi ni mtu wa hekima.

Nimelaumiwa hapa kwa sababu ya msimamo wangu kuhusu mambo kadhaa. Ndugu Phil amesema kwamba mimi nimejawa na matusi lakini huo ni uongo mtupu. Tatizo langu na kikundi fulani cha watu hapa ambacho kimeongozwa na anayemiliki hili jukwaa ya mtandao, Bw chris, ni kuwa hawa ni watu waliojaa vurugu, propaganda na ukabila. Nyinyi wote mnajua kwamba walichapisha maongo kuhusu jamii ya wakikuyu hapa miezi kadhaa iliyopita. Mimi kama kiongozi lazima nisimame na niwakere. walieneza chuki katika jamii za Kenya kwa kuambia watu kwamba jamii hili limenyakua mali ya Makabila mengine na wakasema kwamba jamii hili limeuwa wajaluo. Ni dhahiri kwamba haya mafunzo wameyatoa kwa kiongozi wao mchafu Raila Odinga. Huyu bwana alikuwa analialia ovyo ovyo akisema Ruto na Mudavadi wanamkataa kwa sababu yeye ni Mjaluo. sasa swali ni; Kwa sababu wanamuunga mkono sasa, wanafanya hivyo kwa sababu ni mjaluo? Mimi nawasihi msikubali wala kuamini mahubiri ya ndugu hawa wawili pamoja na mkubwa wao Chris. Hawa ni watu ambao wamejawa na fikra mbaya mno.

Jambo la pili ni kuwa wamekiita chama cha Mwai kibaki PANUA. Hilo jambo linanikera sana kwa sababu kulingna na mila na desturi za kikwetu( Mimi ni mkristo) haufai kamwe kujihusisha na shughuli za ngono kabla haujapata jiko. kupanua ni lugha ya kitandani ambayo haifai kuletwa kwa kikao cha umma kama hiki. Hapa kuna watu wa rika na jinsia tofauti na kulingana na kanuni, lazima tuheshimu mseto kama huo. Kwa mara ya pili hilo jambo linanisinya sana na kwa hivyo nimeita mkutano kesho saa nne na ndugu Mwalimu Taabu. Yeye ni mshirika anayeheshimiwa sana hapa na nataka hawaelimishe kuhusu tofauti ya gumzo za chumba cha kulalia na zile za adharani. Mimi mwenyewe sijaoa na hayo maneno machafu yaniletea majaribio na masumbuko.

Kuhusu mjadala wa leo,mimi mwenyewe nilisema hapa kwamba lile Vuguvugu la machungwa litashinda viti vingi zaidi ya makundi mengine kwa sababu Rais mstaafu Moi alisimamia ugawanishaji mbaya wa maeneo ya uwakilishi bungeni. Watashinda viti vingi lakini watakuwa na kura chache kuliko kile chama cha Umoja wa Kitaifa kinachoongozwa na Bw. Mwai Kibaki.

Mwisho, nataka kutoa onyo kwa washirika. Hili jukwaa litafungwa siku mbili baada ya uchaguzi kwa sababu hawa ndugu zetu hawatakuwa na la kusema baada ya mchezaji wao kuambulia patupu. Wametabiri maongo na mimi nawakumbusha kwamba siku zinaenda bado.

Sina mengi ni hayo tu. Kuweni na usingizi mwema.

Anonymous said...

Vikii. Could you please try using English or migrate to a Tanzanian website? As an educated Kenya, my language of choice is English and not some tongue with a slave-trading foundation. That is why I read the Daily Nation and not taifa leo. Our lakeside jingas also find problems in swahili. It requires a full set of 32 teeth. so, cows and jingas without the lower six teeth have common handcaps in learning swahili.

Anonymous said...

Congrats Vicki,you command of the Kiswahili langauage is remarkable.If Anon cannot read what you've written he should not consider homself a Kenyan, what makes think Kiswahili is for the uneducated.Coult you elementary teacher on how to grasp swahili

Motosana said...

So how many of these 14m voters actually read or know how to read the Kroll report? So what influence is it gonna have on my voting grandma i wonder. I could bet none of the contributors to this blog are registered voters talk less of them being there to cast their vote!

Anonymous said...

Chris,
Li want to let be known to all & sundry that i ahve eventually unmasked you. I have completed a dossier on you & i am going to spill all the evidence here. Can you play the game as you were contracted to do.

I have all the details including the money you got, your pictures & all your contacts. Your days are numbered. Pls dont betray the covenant.

I know you weel & you can run but cant hide. Stop attacking Raila or else I'll do the necessary.

CK

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

What's going on, people? Reverse blackmail hapa hapa.

Anonymous said...

motosana. Please go and convince your toothless cucu to vote. the old slut needs your guidance. nugu ino.

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