Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi is at it again. Whenever you see him appearing on TV too often, then you know that elections are around the corner.
You have to give it to him, when it comes to marketing himself and his political analysis. Except that to him every move Kibaki makes is "interesting."
But Ngunyi himself has had some very "interesting" things to say on TV over the last 3 days or so.
- Last night he said that Kibaki is one of the most surprising politicians Kenya has ever had. And in this vein we should be prepared for anything. Like Kibaki calling for early elections to catch ODM flatfooted without a presidential candidate. He added that he would be surprised if early elections were called for either March or June next year (instead of the expected December 2007).
My comment on this; The first thought that came to my mind was, what is the motive of this statement? After all it is no secret that Mr Ngunyi is a close advisor to President Kibaki these days. Actually the truth is that he has always been an advisor as far back as in the run up to the 2002 general elections, but he was sidelined after the stunning Narc victory in December and only called back when the crisis ridden Kibaki administration realized that they needed some good strategy to just stay in power long enough to finish their term.
Could Ngunyi's statement about an early election have been designed to smoke out the ODM presidential candidate? Raila has the President's handlers very anxious. They wonder whether he could just rise to the occasion and issue another "Tosha" statement, pushing either Kalonzo or Uhuru Kenyatta forward to face off with Kibaki? It may be that they want this unknowing variable of who the ODM candidate is going to be, settled once and for all (so that they start putting their strategy in place). Hence Ngunyi's statement designed to get ODM top cats to push forward their presidential nomination.
President Kibaki is not one for surprises. In fact he is very predictable, if you ask me. Everybody knew he was going to re-appoint to the cabinet his Meru friends for the votes and Saitoti for his precious cheque book. Everybody knows that he delays every decision until the last possible minute (more evidence that we could be headed for an early election).
- That the move by ODM to embrace former long-serving AG, Charles Njonjo, has the potential of splitting the Kikuyu vote with the old Kiambu Kikuyu versus Nyeri Kikuyu rivalry re-emerging.
My comment on this; RUBBISH. And Ngunyi himself knows it. This is yet another statement probably designed to trick ODM and achieve something. Even in 2002 when a Kiambu Kikuyu (Uhuru Kenyatta) and a Nyeri Kikuyu (Mwai Kibaki) faced off in the elections for the presidency, President Kibaki got a sizeable amount of votes from Kiambu (he split Kiambu votes with Kenyatta). So what do you expect to happen when the ODM presidential candidate is Raila or even Kalonzo? If anything the referendum fiasco proves clearly that the Kikuyu will this time vote as a block and we all know who they will vote for. Incase you don't, visit a few discussion forums and try and catch the names of the folks harping on about a dramatically improved economy and repeating certain statements over and over again, like a broken toy; Kibaki atabaki. Etc.
Beware of political analysts who are both referees and members of one of the teams. If I was KTN, whenever I invite Ngunyi to comment, I would also be inviting the likes of Tony Gacoka for instance to give an opposing view. That would just about balance things out because we know that Gacoka is an ODM activist.
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Why is it that Raila seems to know all this top-secret government meetings and goings on? Remember the Artur brother's saga? (Incidentally Raila says that one of them is back in the country). Does Raila have a mole in the highest echelons of government and if so, who is it?
The answer to these questions is shocking and too sensitive even for this blog. So I have answered it in great detail via email to my subscribers.
You can join my Kumekucha Confidential list and read the absolutely amazing answer to this question. Just send an email now to kumekucha-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
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Kibaki can call for elections tomorrow for all I care; and it won't make a difference to me. Unless someone crawls out of the woodwork somewhere in Jun '07, I currently don't have anyone I would vote for.
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