This is the next senator of Makueni... uta-do?

I received some very angry emails from some of you when I predicted the outcome of the high court case on Kethi Kilonzo's eligibility to run in Makueni in my Kumekucha's raw notes. That prediction like many I make here was NOT guesswork but was based on privileged info and some very expert legal opinion on the evidence before the court.

Now more people are going to be pretty angry with this post that predicts the outcome of that by-election, which will happen barely a week from today.

The move to fish out Mutula Jnr from their magic hat was an excellent "trick" by CORD "magicians" and the first time that the coalition has taken JUBILEE by complete surprise. Still it may NOT be enough based on the information that I have this morning.

For starters the threat to contest Mutula Jnr's eligibility to run by appealing the high court decision is just a side show designed to keep CORD under pressure and if possible to divide their attention as the real work goes on behind the scenes in Makueni.  As is the attack on Kalonzo Musyoka by the JUBILEE candidate Prof Philip Kaloki in a press conference yesterday. The JUBILEE campaign has been very carefully crafted not to attack Mutula Jnr directly but to instead focus on the CORD high command. Hopefully this will shift voter attention away from sympathy votes in favour of the late Mutula's son. 

Most people do not understand the role of a spoiler in an election. Others do not believe that such careful arithmetic is possible in something that is as unpredictable as elections usually are. But the truth is that it works and the tactic has been used effectively all over the world including in the US presidential elections. Indeed it works even better in Kenyan by-elections which usually have very low voter turnouts. Then you have to take into consideration the fact that Uhuruto are pretty smart and CORD at the moment is just playing catch up and are sadly not catching up fast enough. No true patriot will pop the champagne at this news because a strong, alert, opposition is critical to a vibrant democracy. More so to the sometimes dangerous JUBILEE government.

All indications are that John Harun Mwau is going to play the role of spoiler in the Makueni by-election. His main role is to reduce the number of votes that would otherwise have gone to the young Mutula. This will be done using cash. If you can't buy a voter to vote for you the next thing is to make sure they DON'T vote. You just buy their national ID card for the duration of the election and they can get it back after it's all over. One thousand bob is a lot of cash in Makueni county. It can buy food for hungry children for days on end. Two thousand bob is better and five thousand an absolute fortune.

And because Mwau and Kaloki are a team, all the latter has to do is ensure massive turnout from his strongholds and he will win the seat.

Sometimes a spoiler plays their cards so well that they end up winning, which will still be okay for JUBILEE (read my raw notes to discover why losing his seat to CORD is NOT an option for JUBILEE).

Plan B is that if the numbers still don't add up, a little adjustment (like the one done in the March 4th presidential elections) will be executed. A handful of "added" votes in each polling station so small in number (but they quickly add up to a significant figure) that nobody will notice, should do it.

The bottom line is that the next senator of Makueni will NOT be from CORD.

Disbanding the IEBC will NOT solve the problem of "fiddled" elections
Some Kenyans were sure that with the disbanding of the ECK and sending it's chair Samuel Kivuiti home would solve the problem of fiddled elections in Kenya. It did NOT. Now the same people think that disbanding the IEBC will work. Why would anybody want to do the same thing again and expect different results this time?

Avid readers of my raw notes will know that there is another government body that needs to be looked at and legislation passed to block that organization from coming anywhere near a general election. That is the solution to this problem. And if that agency is just too powerful then we need to pass legislation to get foreigners to run our elections. Which body is this? Well that info is rather sensitive and is in my raw notes. Sorry. But the good news is that it is fairly easy to get my raw notes.

Is Kethi About To Be Arrested?

Plus chaos escalating in Kenya

It is now going to 5 months since the last rather strange general elections and political temperatures in the country have risen to dangerous levels. As you read this Kenya is on the brink of total chaos and all fingers must point to our unique brand of destructive politics.

To make matters worse most Kenyans don't even realize what is going on. Thanks to the tons of information (noise) flying at us from all directions which has made most totally immune to alarming headlines and trends.

The long and short of it is that the bitter political struggle between CORD and JUBILEE that was clearly evident in the vulgar and abusive commentaries seen in social media shortly after those elections is now about to pour into the streets.

Let me tell you a true and typical story to illustrate what is about to happen.

Imagine for a moment a couple who are used to noise in the neighborhood every day. Kids coming home drunk. Others playing soccer on the pavement and loud reggae music accompanied by the pungent aroma of weed (bhang) being smoked somewhere outside. After months of this kind of racket and chaos the couple get so used to it that they have no problem falling asleep. But one night amid all the usual noise there is a new kind of "noise". Armed thugs have invaded the place and are going house to house robbing people. The wife thinks that she has heard a gun shot but her husband assures her that the kind of loud music usually played sometimes has gun-shot like noises. And so they go back to sleep. Both their cell phones start vibrating at the same time. "Who is this calling us at night?" the husband asks promptly disconnecting his phone and then switching it off without even looking at the caller ID. The wife senses that something is amiss but is more frightened of upsetting her husband, especially if she ends up being wrong. And so she also switches off her phone but not before checking the called ID and realizing that it is a neighbour who frequently borrows money from them trying to call.

And so the couple go back to sleep. A few minutes later there is a huge bang as their front door gives way to a huge stone and 20 thugs armed to the teeth rush into their house. By the time they try to get out of bed powerful beams of light are directed to their faces. The thugs proceed to gang rape the wife in full view of her husband and the children even as they gather all the valuables they can find in the house. That family like others in the neighborhood are left traumatized for life.

That is the situation we are now facing and most of us will wake up when the thugs are already in the house doing their thing.

CORD were outsmarted in the last general elections and at every turn since the hotly contested presidential elections. There is no doubt now that the coalition is the weakest opposition the country has ever had since we returned to multi-party politics with its' main leaders out of the national assembly and at least one prominent member of the top leadership desperately struggling to remain politically relevant. What would you do? The answer is simple. You would resort to what every cornered dog does. You turn in blind rage and become extremely dangerous.

With no adequate numbers in either the senate or house of representatives to get anything done and with a judiciary that they mistrust CORD is now preparing for a major offensive on the streets. The idea is to turn Kenya into another Egypt and trigger a people's coup so to speak (see details in yesterday's raw notes ).

And it was all triggered in Makueni county. All evidence so far points to the fact that Kethi Kilonzo's voter registration documents are not valid and must have therefore been forged. That's pretty serious but there is an even more serious concern that legal experts including presidential candidate Martha Karua are now raising. How did some junior TNA officials get full access to the IEBC voter register with their numerous different rolls so early in the game to be able to ascertain that Kethi's name was NOT there? Who is the custodian of the IEBC voter register? Based on these concerns, CORD has bluntly proclaimed that TNA and the IEBC are one and the same merged organization.

Naturally TNA have angrily denied this and are accusing CORD of conveniently shifting attention from the real issue in the recent Makueni senatorial elections nominations. According to them the issue is missing voter registration material from the IEBC that is suspected to have been used to forge Kethi Kilonzo's voter registration card. Indeed as you read this police are out investigating the matter with clear instructions to press charges as soon as possible. Lawyers associated to the party are even saying that they can already charge Kethi with "handling stolen property."

Kalonzo Musyoka in a recent press conference proclaimed that it was war and added that his coalition does not have a plan B because they are confident they will succeed. He added that CORD had launched a bid to have the IEBC disbanded.

War is the keyword here and when two elephants fight the grass suffers most.

Clearly emotions in the CORD camp have reached the level where reasoning takes a back seat. The coalition feels that the concluded election still shrouded in many question marks was stolen from them. Admittedly few people have an inkling of what really happened (those few include those who have read my unbiased eBook Mystery Monday: Unlocking the 2013 Kenyan Presidential Polls Secrets-see what those who have read it have to say  ). Salt is being rubbed into CORD wounds all the time as TNA arrogantly go about their business dismissing them as sour losers. Senator Beth Mugo even asked Mahackos senator Johnstone Muthama to shut up and wait for investigations into the late Mutula's death to be completed. That was after Muthama emotionally insisted that Mutula was murdered. The shocking bizarre truth can be found in Who murdered Mutula?   and in back issues of my raw notes. 
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