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Monday, July 22, 2013

This is the next senator of Makueni... uta-do?

I received some very angry emails from some of you when I predicted the outcome of the high court case on Kethi Kilonzo's eligibility to run in Makueni in my Kumekucha's raw notes. That prediction like many I make here was NOT guesswork but was based on privileged info and some very expert legal opinion on the evidence before the court.

Now more people are going to be pretty angry with this post that predicts the outcome of that by-election, which will happen barely a week from today.

The move to fish out Mutula Jnr from their magic hat was an excellent "trick" by CORD "magicians" and the first time that the coalition has taken JUBILEE by complete surprise. Still it may NOT be enough based on the information that I have this morning.

For starters the threat to contest Mutula Jnr's eligibility to run by appealing the high court decision is just a side show designed to keep CORD under pressure and if possible to divide their attention as the real work goes on behind the scenes in Makueni.  As is the attack on Kalonzo Musyoka by the JUBILEE candidate Prof Philip Kaloki in a press conference yesterday. The JUBILEE campaign has been very carefully crafted not to attack Mutula Jnr directly but to instead focus on the CORD high command. Hopefully this will shift voter attention away from sympathy votes in favour of the late Mutula's son. 

Most people do not understand the role of a spoiler in an election. Others do not believe that such careful arithmetic is possible in something that is as unpredictable as elections usually are. But the truth is that it works and the tactic has been used effectively all over the world including in the US presidential elections. Indeed it works even better in Kenyan by-elections which usually have very low voter turnouts. Then you have to take into consideration the fact that Uhuruto are pretty smart and CORD at the moment is just playing catch up and are sadly not catching up fast enough. No true patriot will pop the champagne at this news because a strong, alert, opposition is critical to a vibrant democracy. More so to the sometimes dangerous JUBILEE government.

All indications are that John Harun Mwau is going to play the role of spoiler in the Makueni by-election. His main role is to reduce the number of votes that would otherwise have gone to the young Mutula. This will be done using cash. If you can't buy a voter to vote for you the next thing is to make sure they DON'T vote. You just buy their national ID card for the duration of the election and they can get it back after it's all over. One thousand bob is a lot of cash in Makueni county. It can buy food for hungry children for days on end. Two thousand bob is better and five thousand an absolute fortune.

And because Mwau and Kaloki are a team, all the latter has to do is ensure massive turnout from his strongholds and he will win the seat.

Sometimes a spoiler plays their cards so well that they end up winning, which will still be okay for JUBILEE (read my raw notes to discover why losing his seat to CORD is NOT an option for JUBILEE).

Plan B is that if the numbers still don't add up, a little adjustment (like the one done in the March 4th presidential elections) will be executed. A handful of "added" votes in each polling station so small in number (but they quickly add up to a significant figure) that nobody will notice, should do it.

The bottom line is that the next senator of Makueni will NOT be from CORD.

Disbanding the IEBC will NOT solve the problem of "fiddled" elections
Some Kenyans were sure that with the disbanding of the ECK and sending it's chair Samuel Kivuiti home would solve the problem of fiddled elections in Kenya. It did NOT. Now the same people think that disbanding the IEBC will work. Why would anybody want to do the same thing again and expect different results this time?

Avid readers of my raw notes will know that there is another government body that needs to be looked at and legislation passed to block that organization from coming anywhere near a general election. That is the solution to this problem. And if that agency is just too powerful then we need to pass legislation to get foreigners to run our elections. Which body is this? Well that info is rather sensitive and is in my raw notes. Sorry. But the good news is that it is fairly easy to get my raw notes.

9 comments:

Mwarang'ethe said...

Does it matter who wins?

Waste of time on useless "analysis."

xxx

"Some Kenyans were sure that with the disbanding of the ECK and sending it's chair Samuel Kivuiti home would solve the problem of fiddled elections in Kenya. It did NOT. Now the same people think that disbanding the IEBC will work. Why would anybody want to do the same thing again and expect different results this time?"

xxx

We respond as follows:

Those who believed such STUPIDITY are the people we say are living in that wonderful world of DELUSIONS, ILLUSIONS and CHILDISH FANTASIES!

xxx

"Avid readers of my raw notes will know that there is another government body that needs to be looked at and legislation passed to block that organization from coming anywhere near a general election. That is the solution to this problem."


xxx

Another CHILDISH solution just like that of a new Constitution and such STUPIDITY.

xxx

"And if that agency is just too powerful then we need to pass legislation to get foreigners to run our elections."

xxx

Bwa ha ha ha ha ha he he he ga ga ga fa fa fa fa ca ca ca va ba ba ba na na na ha ja ja ja ja ka ka ka

Ati foreigners to run our elections?

A "solution" from the people who have run out of their CHILDISH ideas!

Okay, your wish granted. Shall we invite Chinese or the Americans now?

And, HOW NAIVE is one be to believe in the "goodness" of foreigners?

NB: A TIP. In the same essay of YOURS, you identify in PASSING the REAL ISSUE. However, for "strange" reasons, you fail to see it.

Strange = IVY LEAGUE of FOOLS Education system.

Anyway, we are off to enjoy:

Mind Who You BEG FOR Help, ESPECIALLY FOREIGNERS:

Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help

CHANT IT OUT and SAY

Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help

CAN'T you HEAR that

Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help


If you beg your neighbour bail and you ask to take it to you

DON'T even like to see you stretch YOUR NECJ across the fences, begging a little salt

And when BABYLON day my friend

All your DISGRACES are all gone out on the street

http://is.gd/HQNUFV


Anonymous said...

I have liked the application of Joseph Hill's 'mind who you run to broda we go beg fe help' song lyrics.

Anonymous said...

An African finch (canary) can take refuge in the Canary Island but it never ever feels at home in any way, shape or form.

Kaloki's chances of being elected are zilch in this particular race due to pre-existing political reasons and affiliations that have come to be viewed as not being in the best interests of Makueni County.

A man like Mwau, who is not expected not to win the majority of Makueni votes, will end up swallowing whatever vital votes that Kaloki may be expecting to gain in the coming by-election.

Does the March 4th scenario that unfolded in Othaya involving Mugambi vs Munene still ring a distinct sound in the ears of many people of Makueni, includding the general public?

Anonymous said...

There are those of us who couldn't agree more with the fact that the JUBILEE(RY) - Ngilu-NARC - campaign has been very carefully crafted not to attack Mutula but to instead focus on the CORD high command.

Unfortunately for the JUBILEE(RY) high command and their political lackeys - you know who - the real damage has already been done and it will take moving hills and mountains in the whole of Ukambani in order to undone the huge damage in the next ten years.

It goes without saying that the well orchestrated posthumous attacks on the political shadow of the late Sen. Mutula Kilonzo, his name as well as against the surviving members of his family were totally uncalled for and done in bad taste by all accounts.

Form now on the Jubi-leery bandwagon will have to trend very carefully in Ukambani, and especially during and after the Makueni senatorial by-elections, otherwise there will be political hell to pay and self-inflicted wounds to lick in the 2017/18 general election.

What goes round does come around in the end.

Anonymous said...

If you can't buy a voter to vote for you the next thing is to make sure they DON'T vote at all.

Or in a worst case scenario, the unsuspecting voters end up being sent packing en masse - in a Kenyan style - as was the case in 1987 during the intitial ethnic cleansing drive in Kitale and many other surrounding areas.

And who can forget the months leading to the 1992 general election when countless number of peace loving and hard working Kenyans were forcefully removed from their homes and farms in Kitale, Mt. Elgon and other hotspots in the Rift Valley.

As well in 1997, 2002, and in 2007,what has come to be known as the infamous country's darkest moment, and in 2012 during the Tana Delta Upheaval.

Unfortunately, the rest is deplorable history as it is known due to the fact that we tend to forget the darkest chapters of our past political history only to have them repeated during every election cycle at our own peril and in the name of woeful ignorance, coupled with gross discourtesy of the coutry's self-serving politicians and myopic electorate.

Anonymous said...

Kumekuchans,

Imagine yourselves sandwiched between JUBILEE(RY)'s and CORD(LESS') raving diehard fanatics moments just after the results of Makueni by-elections have been released.

Or worse, dancing in step - tango style - or waltzing - mwaboko style - with the 'high command', including rank and file from both political coalition camps for the next four years?

What images and feelings come to you?

Anonymous said...

Mjinga akierevuka mwerevu yu ...? Mbio za sakafuni huishia ...?

Lest we forget ... then you have to take into consideration the fact that Uhuruto are pretty smart...

Anonymous said...

It is no longer an issue or question of whether sympathy votes will be cast in support of Mutula Kilonzo Jnr by the majority of Makuen residents who have become so sick and tired of seeing and hearing the politics of Makueni get trampled upon by suspects of outsiders, better known as the unholy political trinity of serpents, scorpians and scoundrels.

Luckily, it is going to be payback time in the form of backlash votes against the queens of expediency with their patrons, the combined dark political forces that have mounted a very vicious and malicious campaign with evil intent of turning Makueni people and what is left of the DCLs - development conscious leaders - against each other so that the so-called anointed 'spoiler' may end up with a lion's - hyena's - share of the votes csat during the by-election.

Anonymous said...

What did Ngilu and Ndetei expect to gain after all? What a shame! What a shame! Their goose has been cooked and their so-called posthumous vicious battles against the name of the late Sen Mutula Kilonzo and his well educated children, Kethi and Mutula, is all that will ever be written, as in the last chapter, of Ndetei's and Ngilu's public lives. Watu wazima ovyooooooooooo!

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