I received some very angry emails from some of you when I predicted the outcome of the high court case on Kethi Kilonzo's eligibility to run in Makueni in my Kumekucha's raw notes. That prediction like many I make here was NOT guesswork but was based on privileged info and some very expert legal opinion on the evidence before the court.
Now more people are going to be pretty
angry with this post that predicts the outcome of that by-election,
which will happen barely a week from today.
The move to fish out
Mutula Jnr from their magic hat was an excellent "trick" by CORD
"magicians" and the first time that the coalition has taken JUBILEE by
complete surprise. Still it may NOT be enough based on the information
that I have this morning.
For starters the threat to contest
Mutula Jnr's eligibility to run by appealing the high court decision is
just a side show designed to keep CORD under pressure and if possible to
divide their attention as the real work goes on behind the scenes in
Makueni. As is the attack on Kalonzo Musyoka by the JUBILEE candidate
Prof Philip Kaloki in a press conference yesterday. The JUBILEE campaign
has been very carefully crafted not to attack Mutula Jnr directly but
to instead focus on the CORD high command. Hopefully this will shift
voter attention away from sympathy votes in favour of the late Mutula's
Most people do not understand the role of a spoiler in an
election. Others do not believe that such careful arithmetic is possible
in something that is as unpredictable as elections usually are. But the
truth is that it works and the tactic has been used effectively all
over the world including in the US presidential elections. Indeed it
works even better in Kenyan by-elections which usually have very low
voter turnouts. Then you have to take into consideration the fact that
Uhuruto are pretty smart and CORD at the moment is just playing catch up
and are sadly not catching up fast enough. No true patriot will pop the
champagne at this news because a strong, alert, opposition is critical
to a vibrant democracy. More so to the sometimes dangerous JUBILEE
All indications are that John Harun Mwau is going to
play the role of spoiler in the Makueni by-election. His main role is to
reduce the number of votes that would otherwise have gone to the young
Mutula. This will be done using cash. If you can't buy a voter to vote
for you the next thing is to make sure they DON'T vote. You just buy
their national ID card for the duration of the election and they can get
it back after it's all over. One thousand bob is a lot of cash in
Makueni county. It can buy food for hungry children for days on end. Two
thousand bob is better and five thousand an absolute fortune.
because Mwau and Kaloki are a team, all the latter has to do is ensure
massive turnout from his strongholds and he will win the seat.
a spoiler plays their cards so well that they end up winning, which
will still be okay for JUBILEE (read my raw notes to discover why losing
his seat to CORD is NOT an option for JUBILEE).
Plan B is that
if the numbers still don't add up, a little adjustment (like the one
done in the March 4th presidential elections) will be executed. A
handful of "added" votes in each polling station so small in number (but
they quickly add up to a significant figure) that nobody will notice,
should do it.
The bottom line is that the next senator of Makueni will NOT be from CORD.
Disbanding the IEBC will NOT solve the problem of "fiddled" elections
Kenyans were sure that with the disbanding of the ECK and sending it's
chair Samuel Kivuiti home would solve the problem of fiddled elections
in Kenya. It did NOT. Now the same people think that disbanding the IEBC
will work. Why would anybody want to do the same thing again and expect
different results this time?
Avid readers of my raw notes will
know that there is another government body that needs to be looked at
and legislation passed to block that organization from coming anywhere
near a general election. That is the solution to this problem. And if
that agency is just too powerful then we need to pass legislation to get
foreigners to run our elections. Which body is this? Well that info is
rather sensitive and is in my raw notes. Sorry. But the good news is that it is fairly easy to get my raw notes.