Based on lots of insider information
This is one of the numerous angry sms messages I received from my contacts mad as hell that any sane President of Kenya would sign any legislation similar to the Kenya Communications (Amendment) Act signed last Friday.
The said SMS read;
Greek proverb: When the gods want to destroy you—they first make you mad with power.
I cannot agree more. As you read this Prime Minister Raila Odinga has called a crisis meeting of all ODM legislators to reassess the party’s "standing in Government" this Wednesday.
But rather than join the well orchestrated campaign by the media against this bill (which affects the mainstream media the most) let us try to analyze this whole situation from a neutral point of view.
The main aim of this post is to get inside the thinking of the major players here. In reaching my conclusions I have been greatly assisted by insider information from mostly impeccable sources.
Let us start with a brief history of where this bill came from. The initial idea was born, bred and nurtured right at the heart of State House Nairobi. This is very important to grasp and you will realize why as you read on.
The first time the bill was presented in parliament during the tenure of the 9th parliament it sailed through. The media and other stakeholders appealed to the president not to sign it. The president faced with a general election where things were not going too well (to put it mildly) listened to the voters and refused to sign the said bill. And that would have been the end of it. However something happened in January last year that changed everything. So am I linking post election violence to the decision by the president to sign the bill into law? The answer is YES.
It is rather obvious that one of the reasons why ODM popularity swept across the country in the run up to the general elections of 2007 had a lot to do with the media. While the Kibaki administration has been very careful to ensure that it has a reasonably good control of the media in the country, including influencing the appointments of CEOs to major media houses, the president’s advisors watched in horror as this control was wrested from their hands. I need to explain exactly how that happened in a simple way that non-experts in media and the art of propaganda can understand.
Opinion polls are very powerful and can tilt any election. So when you control those as well as the bulk of newspaper circulation in the run up to a presidential election, you should be okay. And this was the thinking amongst PNU strategists. But of course their undoing is that they are all old school in a world that is changing too rapidly to analyze.
Take the following scenario that I personally witnessed. The newspapers, TV and opinion polls all say that a certain presidential candidate is the most popular in Kisii. A native of the area reading this at first believes it. After all it is printed in the newspapers and so it must be true. But he has a cell phone so he makes a few calls back home and is shocked at the report he receives. It is a total contradiction to what he has read in the media. And so he sends out a few sms messages and when he goes for a drink in the evening he tells his friends what he has observed. Word spreads fast. Meanwhile the newspaper that has been infiltrated and is reporting only what certain powerful people want to see reported starts experiencing problems of dropping circulation. There seems to be a shift to the rival media which also has certain vested interests. Then to make matters worse we have the World Wide Web. For Kenyans in the Diaspora this is their most convenient tool for obtaining news of what is really going on back home. The people who are on the web are very few, but my oh oh my are they influential!!! They call back home frequently and they talk to their people… and they influence them like hell.
Meanwhile something else is happening. Frustrated journalists in the mainstream media who have a conscience are quietly leaking the articles that cannot be published in the mainstream media (because of the said powerful people) on the web. And some sites are really influential and have a very wide and growing audience.
Within a short time things change dramatically. The circulation of a certain newspaper falls like a heavy stone while that of the other rises dramatically. In desperation the editors of the leading newspaper suffering circulation losses start copying the headlines of the rival paper and are amazed at how high their circulation jumps back up when they report favorably on the rival political party their bosses are up against. A clear indicator as to who is more popular on the ground.
Let me stop there and fast forward to the period after the post-election violence. Those in State House realize that control of the media was wrested from their hands and that their rival won because he was able to “manipulate” the media. They swear that that must never happen again. And so the said bill gathering dust in some shelf is retrieved and dusted and re-introduced. You know the rest of the story.
Now there is one more alarming piece of information.
PNU insiders have been talking for months about the breaking up of the coalition government. Contrary to what many Kenyans think, the collapse of the coalition does not alarm PNU insiders. In fact they look forward to it happening. Already the factors that led to the Kalenjin and Luo sticking together during and after the elections have changed. So if the coalition were to collapse today we will not see any bloodshed.
And forget what the act of parliament that made the coalition possible said. The Constitution of Kenya is still supreme and supersedes everything else. So if ODM were to walk out of the coalition next week, the president will simply form a new government (with those who want to play ball) and life will continue. PNU insiders will certainly be more comfortable with that scenario. But I doubt whether ODM will walk out. I think they will just huff and puff and stay exactly where they are. Observant Kenyans know why.
So is the Kenya Communications (Amendment) Act good or bad for the country? It has some really good parts that will promote the rapid growth of the ICT sector. But mostly it is a law that goes against the very basic principals of the constitution that promote free speech and a free media. But who cares? You see there are other factors that have now taken centre stage.
The question Kenyans should be asking is; Can Kibaki and Raila survive this?
My two cents? I don’t think so
Why? I hear you ask.
The reason is simple. Kenyans are very much awake and at the moment they are fed up with the political class (both PNU and ODM) and when you add other factors like the looming serious famine, every time I try to look into the future I shut my eyes tightly in horror.
Enjoy the latest brand new Nairobi Wi Fi Hotel
SEO training in East Africa, trainer comes to your office.
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Friday, January 02, 2009
Breaking News: Kibaki Signs Controversial Media Bill Into Law
President Mwai Kibaki has just made history a few minutes ago by signing the latest controversial media bill into law. He officially goes into history books as the most hostile president to the media in the history of Kenya and East indeed Africa. During his tenure so far a record number of bills aimed at curtailing media freedom have been introduced in parliament. It was also during Kibaki's first tenure that the Standard raid happened. Not even during the darkest hours of Moism did anything close to that raid (that involved the burning of newspapers) happen.
The signing of the bill into law confirms early reports that this blogger received that the President has in fact all along been the originator and real sponsor of all the media bills and more so this latest one which was also passed by the 9th parliament but as elections were around the corner Kibaki bulked to pressure and refused to sign it. The same bill was re-introduced into the house at record speeds and hurriedly passed just before Christmas last year.
With the president's signature it becomes law.
In effect what has now happened is that it has become much more difficult for any Kenyan to get any information through the media. This is a day for great celebrations amongst the political class and impunity in Kenya has won really big. I will be doing a deeper analysis of the effects of this draconian bill (that would have made even the evil apartheid government of pre-Mandela South Africa blush) later into the weekend.
Remember to say a prayer for Kenya tonight before you sleep.
P.S. Now that it is clear that the main stream press will never publish anything about scandals in a hurry as a result of the new law, let me just reveal the name of the company that was at the centre of the recent artificial fuel shortage in Kenya. It is Oilibya. More information to follow as I verify a few more facts.
The signing of the bill into law confirms early reports that this blogger received that the President has in fact all along been the originator and real sponsor of all the media bills and more so this latest one which was also passed by the 9th parliament but as elections were around the corner Kibaki bulked to pressure and refused to sign it. The same bill was re-introduced into the house at record speeds and hurriedly passed just before Christmas last year.
With the president's signature it becomes law.
In effect what has now happened is that it has become much more difficult for any Kenyan to get any information through the media. This is a day for great celebrations amongst the political class and impunity in Kenya has won really big. I will be doing a deeper analysis of the effects of this draconian bill (that would have made even the evil apartheid government of pre-Mandela South Africa blush) later into the weekend.
Remember to say a prayer for Kenya tonight before you sleep.
P.S. Now that it is clear that the main stream press will never publish anything about scandals in a hurry as a result of the new law, let me just reveal the name of the company that was at the centre of the recent artificial fuel shortage in Kenya. It is Oilibya. More information to follow as I verify a few more facts.
Thursday, January 01, 2009
Open Letter To Raila Odinga: WHY?
Dear Chris,
I hope you will have the guts to publish my letter. I want to believe that you are still the old fearless Kumekucha who never fears to publish anything even when it paints you in poor light. In case you did not know, that is the one single thing most responsible for making Kumekucha great.
I have watched with growing alarm as my beloved Kumekucha has taken on the task of wanting to bring down Raila Odinga, the next president of Kenya. Why Chris? Who has paid you? Please answer your most loyal old readers and tell us truthfully what is happening here.
Having said that please publish the following open letter to Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Open Letter To The Prime Minister
Your right honorable Prime Minister Sir,
Please allow me a few minutes to point out a few things that beg for some urgent explanation. I must say that these issues I am about to point out have left you, the true winner of the 2007 presidential polls in a very vulnerable position that makes it very difficult for we your staunch die-hard supporters to explain to your critics. Some people like Kumekucha even seem to have taken advantage of the situation to attack you openly when the blog supported you to the hilt in the run up to the fateful elections in December 2007 and after.
1. This year Jacinta Mwatela, a very brave woman who was the acting governor of the Central Bank was sacked and replaced by an arrogant man who happens to come from the same tribe as the President Kibaki. You Mr. Prime Minister did NOT utter a single word? Does that mean that you supported this sacking? I am sure you realize that those powerful forces who wanted her out, wanted her out for a good reason. And that is to be able to continue “stealing” from the people. You see she blew the whistle about a matter that has now gone very quiet all of a sudden. I note you have been very vocal about the media bill in recent weeks and even about the Waki report earlier where you have disagreed even with members of your own party and I do not doubt your courage. So why were you silent on the Mwatela issue?
2. Rumours are flying around which Chris of Kumekucha can confirm for us if it is true, to the effect that many of your best advisors Mr Prime Minister, those who guided you through that most difficult of times at the beginning of this year, have left you. People like Salim Lone who was feted here in Kumekucha for his “spin expertise” that had PNU reeling. It is whispered that most of these people have fallen out with you because they have become disillusioned when you abandoned the vision and promise you had told Kenyans you would fulfill once you were in power. It is even whispered that the most disgusting thing that happen was when PNU strategists cheated you with the motorcade and Recce GSU unit. They say that you abandoned the porfolio balance demands the minute those guys in suits started running after your car. So was the ODM dream all about a motorcade? Please explain to me your humble loyal supporter because people out here as posing such questions and I am not able to answer.
3. It is said that some of the most sickening corruption crimes have been committed by ODM ministers. Hon Kajwang gave away work permits at the rate hot madazis are distributed in Burma open air market(near the City Stadium). When we all know that Kenyans abroad have to sweat blood and tears to obtain this valuable document in the UK, Europe and other countries, even neighboring Tanzania. Your right honorable, you said nothing and did not even as much as "slap Kajwang in the wrists".
Then the latest and most sickening was when your Hon William Ruto deliberately delayed importing maize so that Kenyans are now dying with hunger. Hon Ruto just saw the profits he would make and did not think much of starving ordinary Kenyans. Sir, still you said nothing. Why? Is this what our ODM dream was all about? For ODMers to get into government and behave exactly the same way as the PANUA mongrels and in some wasy worse?
4. During the recent Jamhuri day celebrations when Kenyans demonstrating on behalf of us all were arrested for merely wearing black T-shirts, you Mr Prime Minister did nothing and said nothing. In fact you were seen at one point having a discussion aside with the Speaker of the National Assembly Kenneth Marende and President Kibaki. What were you discussing? How to continue arresting innocent Kenyans and stop massive revolt against your grand coalition government? Please sir, we your people need answers.
5. Sir, you did a good thing when you promised Kenyans a cheap packet of maize meal Unga to be sold to poorer Kenyans who are the majority. But where is the Unga? Where can it be purchased? Even after the big announcement that the Unga is available, we are still buying this vital commodity at very high prices. Please assist sir.
6. Your excellency, you witnessed the recent ODM elections. Where you even created extra posts (Kanu-style) to ensure that you keep both Ruto and that useless Mudavadi in the party. In your view sir, were these elections really democratic? Is this a glimpse into the kind of "democratic change" you were talking about in the run up to the elections in December 2007 and which a number of Kenyans died for? I will accept to be corrected sir, but please tell me what you personally think.
7. Last but certainly not least, your Excellency the right honorable Prime Minister of Kenya. Your own son Raila Junior was involved in a serious road accident with children of other “big people”. They were all very drunk and racing when the accident occurred. You have said nothing about this irresponsible behaviour and what worries me most is the fact that your children now seem to mingle freely with the children of those who helped steal the election from you last December. In my view there should be a very clear distinction between those people and us, the people who are in bado mapabano mode for Kenya. Does this also mean that your son like the other sons of big people is now above the law?
In conclusion sir, let me make it quite clear that I am still your staunch supporter and will vote for you in 2012 (because there is nobody else, let nobody be cheated). However it is important that you address the issues I have brought up in this open letter to you, before it is too late. Sir, you know how politics changes fast and we do not want ODM to be a skeleton of it’s old self in the next elections.
Your humble die-hard supporter,
ODM Damu.
Guest post by ODM Damu
SEO training in Kenya, trainer comes to your premises
I hope you will have the guts to publish my letter. I want to believe that you are still the old fearless Kumekucha who never fears to publish anything even when it paints you in poor light. In case you did not know, that is the one single thing most responsible for making Kumekucha great.
I have watched with growing alarm as my beloved Kumekucha has taken on the task of wanting to bring down Raila Odinga, the next president of Kenya. Why Chris? Who has paid you? Please answer your most loyal old readers and tell us truthfully what is happening here.
Having said that please publish the following open letter to Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Open Letter To The Prime Minister
Your right honorable Prime Minister Sir,
Please allow me a few minutes to point out a few things that beg for some urgent explanation. I must say that these issues I am about to point out have left you, the true winner of the 2007 presidential polls in a very vulnerable position that makes it very difficult for we your staunch die-hard supporters to explain to your critics. Some people like Kumekucha even seem to have taken advantage of the situation to attack you openly when the blog supported you to the hilt in the run up to the fateful elections in December 2007 and after.
1. This year Jacinta Mwatela, a very brave woman who was the acting governor of the Central Bank was sacked and replaced by an arrogant man who happens to come from the same tribe as the President Kibaki. You Mr. Prime Minister did NOT utter a single word? Does that mean that you supported this sacking? I am sure you realize that those powerful forces who wanted her out, wanted her out for a good reason. And that is to be able to continue “stealing” from the people. You see she blew the whistle about a matter that has now gone very quiet all of a sudden. I note you have been very vocal about the media bill in recent weeks and even about the Waki report earlier where you have disagreed even with members of your own party and I do not doubt your courage. So why were you silent on the Mwatela issue?
2. Rumours are flying around which Chris of Kumekucha can confirm for us if it is true, to the effect that many of your best advisors Mr Prime Minister, those who guided you through that most difficult of times at the beginning of this year, have left you. People like Salim Lone who was feted here in Kumekucha for his “spin expertise” that had PNU reeling. It is whispered that most of these people have fallen out with you because they have become disillusioned when you abandoned the vision and promise you had told Kenyans you would fulfill once you were in power. It is even whispered that the most disgusting thing that happen was when PNU strategists cheated you with the motorcade and Recce GSU unit. They say that you abandoned the porfolio balance demands the minute those guys in suits started running after your car. So was the ODM dream all about a motorcade? Please explain to me your humble loyal supporter because people out here as posing such questions and I am not able to answer.
3. It is said that some of the most sickening corruption crimes have been committed by ODM ministers. Hon Kajwang gave away work permits at the rate hot madazis are distributed in Burma open air market(near the City Stadium). When we all know that Kenyans abroad have to sweat blood and tears to obtain this valuable document in the UK, Europe and other countries, even neighboring Tanzania. Your right honorable, you said nothing and did not even as much as "slap Kajwang in the wrists".
Then the latest and most sickening was when your Hon William Ruto deliberately delayed importing maize so that Kenyans are now dying with hunger. Hon Ruto just saw the profits he would make and did not think much of starving ordinary Kenyans. Sir, still you said nothing. Why? Is this what our ODM dream was all about? For ODMers to get into government and behave exactly the same way as the PANUA mongrels and in some wasy worse?
4. During the recent Jamhuri day celebrations when Kenyans demonstrating on behalf of us all were arrested for merely wearing black T-shirts, you Mr Prime Minister did nothing and said nothing. In fact you were seen at one point having a discussion aside with the Speaker of the National Assembly Kenneth Marende and President Kibaki. What were you discussing? How to continue arresting innocent Kenyans and stop massive revolt against your grand coalition government? Please sir, we your people need answers.
5. Sir, you did a good thing when you promised Kenyans a cheap packet of maize meal Unga to be sold to poorer Kenyans who are the majority. But where is the Unga? Where can it be purchased? Even after the big announcement that the Unga is available, we are still buying this vital commodity at very high prices. Please assist sir.
6. Your excellency, you witnessed the recent ODM elections. Where you even created extra posts (Kanu-style) to ensure that you keep both Ruto and that useless Mudavadi in the party. In your view sir, were these elections really democratic? Is this a glimpse into the kind of "democratic change" you were talking about in the run up to the elections in December 2007 and which a number of Kenyans died for? I will accept to be corrected sir, but please tell me what you personally think.
7. Last but certainly not least, your Excellency the right honorable Prime Minister of Kenya. Your own son Raila Junior was involved in a serious road accident with children of other “big people”. They were all very drunk and racing when the accident occurred. You have said nothing about this irresponsible behaviour and what worries me most is the fact that your children now seem to mingle freely with the children of those who helped steal the election from you last December. In my view there should be a very clear distinction between those people and us, the people who are in bado mapabano mode for Kenya. Does this also mean that your son like the other sons of big people is now above the law?
In conclusion sir, let me make it quite clear that I am still your staunch supporter and will vote for you in 2012 (because there is nobody else, let nobody be cheated). However it is important that you address the issues I have brought up in this open letter to you, before it is too late. Sir, you know how politics changes fast and we do not want ODM to be a skeleton of it’s old self in the next elections.
Your humble die-hard supporter,
ODM Damu.
Guest post by ODM Damu
SEO training in Kenya, trainer comes to your premises
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