We never learn from history do we?
The truth is that revolutionaries and popular candidates never get elected president of Kenya. But compromise candidates do.
Let’s take a brief trip back in time shall we..
Oh boy there Kumekucha goes again with his boring history lessons, I can hear you sigh and fart in your comfortable chair in some nicely air conditioned office far away from the reality on the ground.
But I insist because it is impossible to see the road ahead clearly without understanding exactly where we are coming from.
In 1963 it was not popular nationalist Tom Mboya who was elected the first president of Kenya. Nor was it the radical Jaramogi Oginga Odinga whom western powers were not comfortable with because of his close links with Moscow. It was moderate scape goat Jomo Kenyatta who had been bust preaching reconciliation with the colonial government having given up on the hope for independence any time soon. The old man found it hilarious that the likes of a young man called Tom Mboya were chanting Uhuru sasa!!!
In 1978 it was not President Kenyatta’s nephew Mr Fix it, Njoroge Mungai who ascended to the presidency nor was it radical nationalist and former vice president Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. It was in fact a clumsy heavy Kalenjin-accent moderate whom nobody respected called Daniel arap Moi.
In 2002 it was not revolutionary popular Kenneth Matiba (the true people’s president) who took over as president nor was it the faithful long-serving vice president of the Moi era George Saitoti. Nor was it the man who had been on permanent campaign mode for many years, Raila Odinga. It was the moderate Mwai Kibaki.
The way things stand now Musalia Mudavadi looks like he is the one. He has all the right characteristics going for him. He is the ideal moderate candidate and the clever but corrupt people backing him have read the situation very cleverly and positioned him as such. Indeed if the elections were held today he would win by a landslide and there would be no need for a run off.
And that is where the problem is. The elections are a long way off and yet a mere week is a very long time in politics. Just as well because if Musalia Mudavadi were to win the presidency the political class in Kenya will have won yet again and the people will have lost... yet again. It is really as simple as that.
I have been very busy in recent days trying to measure the true impact of Mudavadi’s recent moves on the ground and I can report that I saw the kind of excitement that I have not seen in a long time. Even the Kamba who have generally snubbed Raila Odinga are uncharacteristically excited about a Mudavadi candidature. It seems that in Kenyan politics it pays to be quite and humble fence-seater and never step on anybody’s toes (just like Mwai Kibaki was before he ascended to the presidency).
I have just released the most explosive raw notes I have penned in a very long times. Get free samples of past raw notes at email@example.com