Mutahi Ngunyi is a well know political analyst and a fascinating character for those who know him better (but that is not a story for today). An interesting aside here that comes to mind is that Ngunyi was being interviewed on live TV as Kenyans anxiously waiting for the results of the presidential elections in December 2007. His careful analysis of the results trickling in showed that Raila had won and he said on the programme that Kibaki should concede defeat and hand over power. In effect if there was any court case or investigation to try and find out who really won the 2007 presidential elections, then Ngunyi has to be a key witness in the proceedings.
But I digress. Towards the end of last week he was interviewed on K24 and he repeated a lot of the predictions that I made here in a controversial post that was not too well received. He repeated the same sentiments in his weekly column in the Sunday Nation yesterday. Ngunyi says that it is not a question of if Kenya will explode but when. You can read the full article now.
It seems that most people do not understand why the country will explode or why it seems inevitable that we cannot escape another round of violence and blood letting, as much as we want to. This just illustrates how wide the gap is between ordinary down and out folk now paying a record Kshs 120 per 2 kilograme packet of maize flour through no fault of their own and the lucky few Kenyans who decide what they want to eat today and where they will eat it.
People also don’t have a clue why the coalition government is finished, including senior politicians in it. So let me give you a small illustration to help us all understand.
Imagine this school where some of the school prefects have rebelled and defied the school administration. The rest of the students are very excited about this naturally. So as headmaster what would you do? Would you just relax and pretend that everything was okay? Of course not. The thing to do would be to sack the prefects who defied you immediately and restore order and authority right away. Indeed in any management situation you don’t stomach rebellion, you cannot afford to.
Jomo Kenyatta understood this well and so did Daniel arap Moi. But Mwai Kibaki does not seem to have the slightest clue. While there is more democratic space, thios does not change human nature and the fundamentals of politics and governance.
This is one of the reasons why the coalition is doomed. It is really just a matter of time.
Kumekucha titbits: Did you know that corporate team building programmes have been known to turn around previously loss-making companies the world over?
There are those who say that corruption is the glue holding the coalition government together and for this reason it will survive until 2012. While it is true that corruption is a strong glue, there is yet another motivating factor (and much stronger factor) that will help break the GCG much quicker than most people think. It is prize much more valuable than the corruption currently going on. It is the presidency of the republic of Kenya which means billions and billions of shillings. Politicians are ambitious and very greedy. That combination is deadly. Many in the 10th parliament are already scheming and planning how they will come out tops in the next general elections. That is what caused the embarrassing defeat of the government in the house over the Waki bill and that is what will roast William Ruto if the censure motion against him comes up for discussion in the house this week (as is widely expected). Don’t forget that I talked about the power of those TV cameras and radio micropones in the house that are causing MPs to play to the gallery and to echo the feelings and sentiments of their constituents unlike the situation before.
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These days every time Prime Minister Raila Odinga opens his mouth to speak it ends up being a political disaster and the support he once had continues to be eroded by the day.
The latest is that Raila has disagreed with most Kenyans and said that the Grand Coalition government is NOT that corrupt. In fact he told off the church for criticizing the government. Read the whole story here.
Wow!!! That is all I can say about that.