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Monday, October 29, 2007

Should Raila Odinga Abandon His Plan To Venture Into Enemy Turf?




It is quite clear that those mapping out strategy for ODM presidential aspirant Raila Odinga must include a very serious think tank who know exactly what they are doing.

Quite a number of very interesting moves made by Raila recently clearly show this. Before I go into them let me make a very important point here. Many people leaving comments here have been eager to claim that this blog has degenerated into an ODM campaign tool. Naturally these persons have the right to express their views no matter how false and misplaced they may be. And irrespective of the fact that the possibilities are high that such comments are made with a clear agenda against this popular site in mind. However I would like to point out that I have made every effort to keep this blog as balanced as possible. I have done this by including in my team of commentators who can make comments without my approval, people of divergent views. Proud Kikuyu Woman (is a self-confessed strong PNU supporter) while Vikii is a die hard ODM-Kenya man. Taabu is “horseless”, meaning that he is not backing any presidential candidate. Phil is of course ODM damu but is a skilled debater who often disagrees even with other ODM supporters on certain details and issues. Luke aka “admiring economic growth” also says he is “horseless.”

The other thing I have done is to favor PNU commentators who leave comments here and allow the kind of comments I would not allow from ODM supporters. I do this deliberately to create a balance of sorts because the PNU side is a little short on ideas and debating skills as has been evidenced by the quality of debate from their side both in this blog and nationally, right up to the very top. I am NOT being biased just do an audit in this blog of the abusive comments and language and you will clearly realize that virtually all of them are from one side.

Having said that there is absolutely nothing wrong with this blog siding with a candidate of its’ choice. Newspapers and media houses in the most developed democracy in the world , The United States, usually back presidential candidates after carefully scrutinizing their policies. The only thing I want to emphasize is that if and when we make such a move we will announce it publicly. I take this opportunity to urge all others participating here to always state their agenda and position clearly when making comments.

Like the time recently when I declared...

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14 comments:

Taabu said...

Visibility and publicity are two assets that come at very steep prices. RO may have decided to take battle to his opponent's door step. Or put differently Agwambo and his ODM block consider themselves home and dry and lest tehy be seen to shunning Mt. Kenya they are making SYMBOLIC INCLUSIVE APPEARENCE. The unfortunate aspect is that a life was lost as the price.

But that ends the hypothesis. The gem in all these drama is opening and freeing of Kenyans to divergent opinions.. This may be the blessing in disguise we needed to stop Tuju and Murungaru being stoned when he takes PNU campaign to Rairieda dn Bondo.

If that comes to pass then Halleluuya people staying in transparent houses have learnt not to go nude nor throw stones. The better for the motherland. These scoundrels may just be inviting the camel who will eventually displace them from their homes. We are on a sharp learning curve presumably for the better. God bless Kenya.

kalamari said...

Raila must actually step up his campaigns in Central province…at least in these early stages. It's obvious that his performance in this province will be dismal, however, the perception that his is a national campaign is more important. As long as he doesn't visit obscure food kiosks where Kibaki relatives are waitresses, the man should be fine. Although only a handful of rural Kikuyus see the need for change; and the fact that there are very few undecided voters in the province, as a 'peoples president' Raila should clearly show that he is in fact for all Kenyans. Politically, he has nothing to loose…so why not attempt to gain. Going by the shenanigans at Equity Bank et al, many Kyuks have benefited immensely from Kibaki. However, some remain in squalor and have lived through unnecessary insecurity as provided by Mungiki. Some of these jamaas realize that portions of Anglo-Leasing money came from their very own pockets. Some of them were even looking forward to reading the newspapers that were burnt per Michuki orders. It is in fact true that some of these jamaas knew Murungaru five years ago when he lived in an two bedroom extension in Buru. Some are even jealously proud of a man called Githongo. Some were even evicted from their homes in Molo, Subukia etc on orders of Kibakis' chief campaigner. Some were indeed embarrassed to see the first lady in pajamas daring the nation that next time she will be in a bikini. Some even dashed for safety at JKIA at the sight of menacing Armenians brandishing pistols. When you talk of economic prosperity, some Kikuyus will stare you with a blank face then retreat to their homes before sunset (insecurity). You see, there's no denying that a few in the house of mumbi have seen the past few years through the same lens as the rest of Kenyans.
In beginning the spirit of national healing, Raila must continue to address Kikuyus in their villages.

As far as the violence goes, Raila has no control. You must realize that some jamaas cannot wait to see him sprinting through the streets of Nyeri town followed by simi wielding mungiki folk… in remembrance of Jomos' Kisumu fiasco. Even with such risks, Raila must consistently try to woo rural Kikuyus in efforts of integrating them into the larger Kenyan family. You see, 2008 should be the year that Kenya initiates national healing. To do this, it is paramount that all Kenyans feel represented and equal.

Vikii said...

Ok. This is a nice one.

One, let us not dwell on 'undebatables' like whether or not this blog is a campaign forum for Raila Odinga (there is no such thing as ODM, there has never been). IT IS. We know you are not fools but neither are we.
Allowing me, PKW, Derek and all those who have refused to be lied to an opportunity to post comments without moderation means nothing. I have heard opposition politicians accusing Kibaki of planning to rig the elections and yet it is the same Kibaki's government that is offering security to those politicians in the face of a public that wants to lynch them. On that one, chris, nobody is fooled.

This thing of PNU supporters having no debating skills is damn crappy, Chris, and you know it. The problem is that they tell you what you dont want to hear. The last time I checked, people like Derek were passionate supporters of the PNU. Now how is Phil or anyone else in the ODM a better debater than Derek? How is Kalamari better than PKW? I have seen PNU supporters debate and ask questions that you guys so predictably go mum when asked. The head of the PNU campaign is Mwai Kibaki, the head of the ODM campaign is Raila Odinga--Who, in your honest judgement is a better debator? Whose campaign is more issue-oriented? I am not suprised at what you call "issues". Just look at the heading of this post done by you and tell me if it fits the bill of an issue-oriented post. Who is the "ENEMY"? These are some of the outbursts that Raila Odinga has a duty to apologize to kenyans over and you, being such a religious follower of his, go ahead and make them part of your vocabulary.

"You need to take a brief tour into rural Kenya in almost every corner of the republic to see for yourself how standards of living have deteriorated and how desperation has risen rapidly in the last 5 years, despite the wonderful so-called economic growth the country has experienced under Kibaki"------Well,I am not an expert in matters Economics, But I have failed miserably to understand this one allegation that the ODM crowd keeps yapping about.If people were five years ago building classrooms and dispensaries out of their pockets after paying taxes, if they can access better health care at less cost(If you dont believe it, then you Must do an essay on why you think charity Ngilu was the best health minister in independent Kenya), if there is more money in circulation, and every parameter indicates there is,HOW HAVE LIVING STANDARDS DETERIORATED? Dont rush to hide in your usual den, inflation. Even Phil is aware of the Basic Dilemma of Economic stabilization Policy. There is always a wide overlapping area where inflationary level spending and full employment-level spending clash. As total spending speeds up (repair of roads, investment in primary school education,sinking of bore holes and opening of more than 20 fishing processing plants in Luo nyanza), inflation gets going before full employment is reached. You do not resurrect a dead economy in a day and that is why we have the short term side-effects of the revival.I for one do not believe that the purchasing power, the life expectancy and Education access and attainment, all of which are indices of measuring The standards of Living, have fallen among Kenyans in the last five years. You've got to get me an explanation for your supposed deterioration of the standards of living.

Kalamari, I do not see where kikuyus come in here. Raila Odinga a couple days ago campaigned succcessfully in Othaya, the current capital of kikuyuland. They showed him utmost respect even though he was trying to sell bacon to saudi-Arabians. Raila was confronted by people who are not kikuyus. It is important for people to understand that kikuyus are related to the Meru people pretty much the same way The Luos are related to the Kalemjin or the Maasai. They are two independent communities. When Nazlin Umar was assalted in kisumu, nobody blamed the Turkana!

So Kumekucha has officially embraced the Majimbo craze? I was neither cold nor hot about it, but because of the motive decipherable from the kind of proponents it has attracted,I hereby oppose it. Kalonzo Musyoka should first do some research on what he is talking about. It would have been a bright idea if propagated by sobre people, not crooks ready to auction the country for a bottle of stale wine if I may borrow from kioko.

Finally, chris, I have told you here several times that nobody has any problem with either you, or your blog supporting the candidature of Raila Odinga. It is afterall your democratic right. What we are against is hypocrisy. We may not be geniuses but that doesnt in any way make us fools. Declare today that the blog supports Raila and we will make the necessary adjustments. When you officially announce it, we will react accordingly.

Anonymous said...

kumekucha,it is time you gutukad.Trying to control the masses is not free press and although i am true odm supporter with alot of clout in the village. just landing in the village that very night i am received with over 100youths.
I am thinking of changing sides and crossing over to PNU because irrespective of whoever wins,financialy my fortunes remain the same.Ask your boys who is mwenyewe and they will inform.

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

Vikii, I love you too, I do!

Taabu said...

Nice chemistry cooking here in this blog. Chris can you shop for a CARDINAL to solemnize the I DOs?

alfax said...

Well put Vikii! ODM suppoters have perfected the art of showing like the rest of the country(read the rest of ethnic communites)are united behind RO, and that only Kikuyu is not for Raila. That is why Kibaki and Kikuyus are YOUR ENEMIES!(I borrowed that from the heading of the post)! Kalamari, it is sad the way you are segregating Kikuyus, taking them forgranted, as if they support Kibaki blindly! I guess they can see all the ills you have mentioned, it is not like they dont read the papers. Your comment is highly imbalanced and follows the path ODM has taken of trying to win general elections by isolating the Kikuyu, instead of being issue based. Again, you seem to pick out only the bad side of the coin, and according to you, NOTHING good the Kibaki administration has done! Infact, IT HAS MADE THINGS WORSE THAN EVER, AND THAT IS WHY WE NEED THE SAVIOUR AGWAMBO AND ODM. You see? I think this is what Vikii is calling hypocrisy. As a matter of fact, between Kibaki and Raila supporters, who of the two support their candidate blindly?? Pls be issues based. And even when you come up with some issues, please avoid relating the kikuyu as a tribe with the issues. We support Kibaki based on more of what he has done than the ethnic tribe he comes from. Sometime back a person calling himself proud kikuyu man sent a comment, which I would recommend kalamari revises.

alfax said...

The Central Kenya Initiative?? Joe Nyaga has been propagating something he is told by Raila to call "Central Kenya Initiative". Note that he has been told by Raila.
This initiative is tribalistic. I think it is not necessary. In my opinion, it is one of the strategies of isolating central kenya in the general elections. This is a scheme by ODM to try and make the general elections a battle of all the other regions against central region. To make it look like Kikuyu's will only vote Kibaki in because he is one of their own, regardless of his character. That is not true. Kikuyus may not be geniouses if I may borrow from Vikii, but dont take them to be fools. We look at what a leader has done as well as his character, then we give him a vote. This is what every other kenyan does or should do. Joe needs to understand that central kenya is not against Raila as such so he need not going about proving a point that there are odm supporters in central. This is purely confusing the electorate. ODM should come up with at least 8 initiatives, starting with a Nyanza initiative and finish with central kenya initiative, because the central kenya least needs the initiatives!

kalamari said...

Vikii, Please let go off Derek. The chap abandoned the sinking ship long ago. I wouldn't put too much credence on PKW either; the cutey will abscond her democratic right to cast a vote, after all what's the point; same all, same all. As for Kioko, be wary of where you follow that fellow to……you are wrong to think his abuses are symptomatic to tuorettes syndrome.

Now, you must understand that policemen are some of the citizens most desperate for change. In the absence of their top bosses, they will protect 'their man'. Unfortunately, as was seen in Kisii some time back, members of Kibakis cabinet will continue to use their power to clobber opposition politicians until they bleed on their knees. On that one, Vikii, nobody is fooled.

Now Vikii, even you, an astute observer and participator in this thing called democracy, must accept certain tenets necessary to upholding and protecting the right to a fair and free multi-party election. In your estimation, does the IPPG reform package mean anything? If you jump into the convenient 'prerogative answer' then I must ask you if you think the current constitution needs to be revised at all. You see my friend, it is such laws that Kenyans want to change. Is Kibaki not culpable to rigging when he allows Livondo to purchase votes in Langata with impunity? In your estimation (and I wish you lived in Kiambu and worked in Bondo), has the issuance of IDs been efficient and sufficient in all regions? Actually Vikii, what is your definition of 'rigging'?

This is laughable, however, the fine print absolves you from it. Still, are you asking the Kenyan voter to excuse, understand and factor in inflation as they gauge economic growth? Expert in matters politics?

Vikii, you saying that people from Central province are like Saudis unwilling to feast on bacon, in reference to their lackluster quest for change, is unfair to all Kikuyus/Merus. I for one believe that these chaps were with the rest of Kenya in 2002 and they all wanted an incorruptible government, a new constitution, press freedoms and an end to insecurity. Little did we all know.

chris said...

I hear you Taabu my brother.

My first choice Cardinal for the ceremony...

John Njue.

-kumekucha-

Anonymous said...

mwenyewe
predicts as follows assuming 100% voter turn out.
Raila Odinga
Nairobi....700,000
coast......600,000
north east.250,000
eastern....172,000
central....10,000
r.valley...1,800,000
western....1,000,000
nyanza luo.1,100,000
nyanza k ..400,000
TOTAL...6,032,000.00
<46.69%of vote>

Mwai kibaki
Nairobi.......400,000
coast.........180,000
N.eastern.....5,000
eastern.......940,000
central.......1,980,000
r.valley......1,100,000
western.......390,000
nyanza kisii..280,000
Total...........5,275,000
<40.8% of the vote>

kalonzo steve
Nairobi.......50,000
coast.........300,000
N.eastern.....10,000
Eastern.......1,023,000
central.......10,000
r.valley......100,000
western.......10,000
nyanza........20,000
TOTAL............1,523,000
<11.54% of the vote>

purely based on ethnic,majimbo and referendum result voting trend.

Now if the kibaki team screws up the ECK well enough,we can then expect 100,000votes in each province screwed up and subsequently a kibaki win.
Having been a return officer during my dads campaign.I believe rigging is very easy if you are the incumbent.With my past experience if i were Kibaki i cannot loose.The only sure way for opposition to take over this thing is by kalonzo teaming up with odinga at the 11th hour.

Vikii said...

Kalamari, I will pick up the gauntlet and please don't run.

First of all, I will not hide in "prerogative answer". I am instead offering to educate you a little bit on what the IPPG essentially was. As you can see, Kalamari, these are initials that stand for Inter Party PARLIAMENTARY Group. When legislators, led by Mwai Kibaki and Michael Wamalwa, started this initiave in 1997, it was in response to the strong belief the opposition had that Moi had cheated particularly Ford Asili of victory in 1992. They felt that all PARLIAMENTARY parties had a right to choose who the poll referees would be proportionate to their parliamentary strength. There is no other known way of measuring a political party's strength other than the number of members of parliament that party has. Only Ford Asili, Ford-Kenya, KANU and DP nominated representatives to the group yet we had approximately forty parties at the time.

What I am saying here Kalamari is that even if Kibaki were to follow the IPPG, only KANU, Ford People and NARC would be allowed to forward names of representatives. Nobody knows the strength of either ODM, ODMK or PNU which are the parties in contention this year. What formula would these parties follow? When Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and whoever say they need to be consulted, who are they to be consulted? We had 15 presidential candidates in 1997, most of whom did not have any say in the appointment of commissioners. In one simple statement Kalamari, ODM, ODMK and PNU have absolutely no moral authority shouting about it because they are not even parliamentary parties.They should wait until they QUALIFY to participate in representative debates.

If Kalamari saw Livondo buying votes, he has a patriotic duty to report him to the police, who according to the man, are ODM people always ready to protect their man. Why he is roaming around with all the policemen behind his opponent (In fact they consider him 'their man')beats my understanding.

We can continue with Kenya's econoimic situation for years Kalamari but you need to be honest in your arguments. Give me sound reasons why you feel the living standards of Kenyans have deteriorated and I will explain to you that even that so much talked about inflation is all hot air.

Bring it on and have a happy Halloween.

kalamari said...

Vikii, I accept your mathematical justification on Kibakis’ impossible task of maintaining a credible ECK. You are right, numbers don't lie. In fact it appears that in your eyes, Kibaki is in a fix and is actually reluctantly forming one of the most biased ECK teams ever witnessed. Whereas, your breakdown of what political parties were then and what they are now is in no dispute, I believe you will agree that the disintegration of the same was fuelled by the antics of one Emilio Kibaki. Because MPs (including the president) have been allowed to shift from party to party through out the past five years, it follows that wherever they are now (before dissolution i.e.) should also be ‘respected’. In the SPIRIT of the ippg, Kibaki should have done the right thing…… that being, encouraging whatever is now termed as the opposition to forward inputs on who makes up the new team. Either that or extend terms to after the elections. Both ‘to dos’ are now mute so why discuss and again why should Kibaki shoot himself in the foot? Its just politics anyway, right.

Now party politics aside; there’s no such thing as instant democracy. Even Kibaki must be excused for his desperate attempts to retain power. However, as Kenyan citizens, our least expectation should be a free election. If in the end, the ECK is chaired by the president’s lawyer, voters lists are trampled on, vote buying candidates are escorted by cops with orders then what do we have? I think it is in Kibakis’ best interest to ensure that, if he wins, it be seen as a fair election. Anything less would be quite unfortunate.

Anonymous said...

Raila should keep off from danger zones. If he is man enough, let him dare visit Vancouver,
British Columbia. I swear, I Kioko, I would have this thug circumcised. Hapa BC hatutaki ujinga. Kioko. BC,Canada. Kazi iendelee.

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