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To tell you all the truth, I was very shocked to receive the news about the new alliances taking shape within Kanu and ODM-Kenya. Had I not verified certain facts within the story with at least two separate sources, I would have left out the story altogether like I have done with so many other hot tips I usually receive on a daily basis.
I am not afraid of being proved wrong and there are certain facts that have emerged that are contrary to what I previously thought and even wrote about here. I was wrong about the following;
Kalonzo Musyoka’s popularity:
My impeccable information shows that Mr Musyoka for a reason I still do not understand (Kenyans probably just love fence-seaters) has sizeable support countrywide. When that support is combined with the Kanu network and its’ bulging purse strings, it will make Kalonzo a formidable presidential candidate for Kanu. Please note carefully (especially those who rush to make comments without reading through posts) I have not said he is a good presidential candidate or good presidential material. I am simply reporting on his support on the ground as of this moment.
Yes, it is Kalonzo Musyoka I was referring to yesterday.
There is yet another assumption that many Kenyans are making. And that is the fact that if we were to get two opposition presidential candidates to stand against Kibaki, the incumbent would easily romp back into Sate house. Thois is an assumption carried over from the Moi days. Kibaki is NOT Moi.
Let me remind you why Baba Giddy is such a formidable opponent. For 24 years he received daily briefings from the intelligence service. And that is after serving for almost half a century as an MP with many of the earlier years covering the entire Rift Valley province. I do not need to remind readers of this blog that information is power, especially in the current information age.
All this makes Baba Giddy a walking encyclopedia on Kenya. It also means that his calculations are bound to be correct. They were also very accurate in 2002, the only problem that happened was the unexpected where Raila led other leading and ambitious Kanu politicians in giving up their personal ambition to back Mwai Kibaki. Since most of us agree on the fact that Baba Giddy is the chief architect behind the re-birth of Kanu, you can be sure that he has double checked his arithmetic this time and chances that Kalonzo may just wrest the presidency from Raila are very high. (What I like most about Raila supporters is that you will never see them using abusive language in this blog. They will always quietly and soberly debate their point of view without losing their heads or getting emotional. Congratulations guys on being “Ancient Greeks”.
In a three-horse race of say Kibaki, Raila And Kalonzo, the biggest loser will be the incumbent. Raila already has his power base which is Luo Nyanza (almost 100%) and then very strong support in parts of the populous Western Province, North Eastern, Coast, Nairobi and even a respectable following in Rift Valley. Kalonzo’s power base is Ukambani in Eastern, followed by sizeable pockets of support in virtually all provinces in the country. It is unlikely that any Raila support will end up with Kalonzo, however Kalonzo’s candidatire will take plenty of votes that would have gone to President Kibaki had he not stood. This is what Kalonzo supporters have been saying for months and based on evidence that I have received, I now admit that they are right. Remember that the presidential election is a numbers game.
The big problem with President Kibaki’s votes at the moment has to do with the recent Mungiki issue which has done him irreparable damage in the populous Kiambu district and environs, including Nairobi. That leaves him badly bleeding within his own power base of Central province. And although he still has the majority of the support from this, his home province, any political analyst will tell you that what has happened is a very bad omen for any candidate. You don’t lose support in your power base that is just too dangerous. The problem with other parts of the country is that I do not see any influential tribal chiefs on his side. Meaning that if elections were to be held today the two front-runners would be Raila and Kalonzo, assuming Raila is the ODM-Kenya candidate and Kalonzo the Kanu candidate.
One thing I must add is that there are certain parts of Kenya which will not vote for President Kibaki but will also NOT vote for Raila, thanks to years of anti-Luo propaganda. Those votes will also go to Kalonzo.
In brief folks, my research on the ground reveals something that I have been reluctant to accept all this time. The fact that Kalonzo Musyoka in Kanu will be a formidable opponent. I dare say he will be the man to beat (and not the incumbent as we have all been convinced for a long time.) Raila Odinga too is an experienced campaigner and has almost the same chance of winning the presidency as his archrival Kalonzo has. I thgink it will be a very close race, but one of these two gentlemen will be the next president of Kenya.
Notice that both these two candidates have succeeded in winning serious funding for their campaigns. Most of Raila’s cash is coming in from South Africa and Kalonzo’s recent windfall is from a mysterious local financier that is yet to be identified although my strong suspicions are that it is Baba Giddy and probably Giddy also.
Ladies and Gentlemen I am convinced that barring something very unexpected happening that is how we are going to go into the general elections.
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Vote for a fellow Kenyan today because when he wins, Kenya wins
Kalonzo is a posterboy with no track record and for all normal comparisons a bit compromised at the edges. He will fade away once the media gets onto the real race between raila and mwai. as always, the winner will be the one appearing to deliver the most credible bribe to the second and third tribal leaders - only to renege once in power passing on all but crumbs. Kenya pays either way, but would win if a peaceful transition takes place - that would be a huge achievement.
ReplyDeletePandora
yes my friend chris .. I think your analyzis is very gud and very predictable but if that analyzis will still count in like 4 months i will have to say its 50% chance.
ReplyDeletePlease shut up! Spare us this rubbish!
ReplyDeleterubbish! Just because you don't subscribe to an opinion doesn't mean its rubbish.
ReplyDeletebelieve me, there's lots more people out here enjoying the reading.
criticize with some etiquette.
SA in VI.
Well Chris you have done your homework and submitted the papers. December is not far to see your results either accurate or unflective. You are very RIGHT in the word formidable but when you add that either of the two (RO and KM) will be our next president I am not sure but the gut feeling butressed in truth and history tells me that it amounts to stretching academic analysis too far (bereft of reality).
ReplyDeleteIn my book, and I have been wrong before, either these two egos merge, compromise or their goose is hunted, cooked, eated and digested. Simple as that. It is no mean task unseating and incumbent hell bent on another term particularly in Africa. The exceptions are more of case studies rather than the norm.
Baba Giddy may be the Kenyan encyclopia of tow limbs but trust me he may be overating his abilities given Kenyans' state of enlightment in the last few years. the guy is just being human but seeking revenge after being done in in 2002. He has a plastic ego and reputation to protect of being the professor. And who would not want to bask glory of exerting such a pound of flesh in under 2000 days? Moi has a SERIOUS political grudge to settle before he goes under and he knows the brains behind his 2002 debacle. Now that the same soul is poised for ODM nomination, Toro wouldn't mind supping with the devil to make sure that this never happens. And to come to think of it. The incumbent would be smiling all the way to the house on the hill as simbas get drenched. By the way Toro is not happy with Kenyans seeing all the (tokenism) difference in growth. It is a slap in his leaving face and won't mind rewinding the clock through a proxy, ama?
That said, the heat and aftermath of all these gerry-mandering and dela-cutting will only leave Kenyans soaked in blood and hightened tribal tensions. We haven't seen anything yet and the future is reallty gloomy chaps.
True, Kalonzo might decide the presidency come December. If he sails through the ODM nominations, then there is that chance. Again, if Raila loses and proves his knack of sagging and walks away, then it will be a different story.
ReplyDeleteOver the Raila supporters, the die hards who believe that he is chosen by the West and has agreat support, Chris has laid it bare and wait for the ODM nominations to get the bigger picture
Chris, your analysis is all good but...
ReplyDeleteAbout this so called Professor of politics I have only one latin saying for him - asinus asinum fricat - the arse rubs the arse i.e. his situation is like two people flattering each other. Moi and his ego are flattering one another and in the process deluding each other. Moi left the country in doldrums, Kenyans will not accept him back, even by proxy. He was mortally stabbed by Raila and in the process his 'invincibility' and silly 'professorship' punctured. Who is fooling whom...the arse rubs the arse...
Between Kibaki, Raila and Musyoki as candidates think of it through this other latin saying de duobus malis, minus est semper eligendum ie of two evils, the lesser is always to be chosen, choose the lesser of two evils. So Kenyans will look at all three and will decide who is the lesser of evils. Who do you think they will settle for Chris??
I have read a lot of off-the-mark analyses but this one beats them all. One, it is very hypothetical and two, it is based on personal feelings that are clearly meant to tilt public thinking. Below are my reasons why:
ReplyDeleteThere are certain areas that will not vote for KIbaki but still will not vote for Raila 'due to years of Luo propaganda'. This is rubbish and if anyone wants they can turn the heat on me. Will those areas that wont vote for Kibaki do so due to years of Kikuyu propaganda. Central province wont vote for Kalonzo, is it because of years of kamba propaganda? This systematic crying for sympathy belongs to the past. Are u telling us that there is nothing else that can prevent people from voting for Raila apart from his tribe? My answer is no, there is much more than tribe. The biggest anti-luo propaganda are spread by the luos themselves and that's precoisely what Chris is doing now.
Hypothetical? Yes. Kalonzo will not be joining KANU and if he does he will lose more supporters than he will ganner (I will be one of them). In the event that he decides to quit ODM (which I highly doubt), then he will be better off joinning a non parliamentary party. This will come in handy in the long run.
As my teacher and friend, Taabu puts it, Kalonzo/Raila hope lies in their unity. This unity is the only one that can give them a slim chance of unseating Kibaki. Anything short of unity will not only hand them the biggest humiliation of their political lives. Kibaki will romp home with a very unassailable majority.
Eti Kibaki is losing ground in Kiambu. Dream On.
ReplyDeleteOur take is that ODM through Uhuru is Behind the Mungiki Menace just to smear mad on Kibaki. Central is even more united in supporting Kibaki's reelection.
IGNORE KIBAKI AT YOUR OWN PERIL
Dear Kenyans,
ReplyDeleteIf indeed its true that Kalonzo may defect back to KANU, it would be a clear demonstration that the man lacks a clear ideological stand on the way this country should be managed. He will have admitted to Kenyans that he sees no difference between KANU and ODM, or any other party for that matter.
When will our leaders begin to faithfully build their parties around a core set of values, and stay in for the long term? This defections and counter defections simply demonstrate how inconsistent and unprincipled our leaders are.
As Kenyan voters, we should also take the cue from these leaders and be faithful only to our collective interests - rather than be tied to parties which may be abandoned tomorrow.
No so fast Chris. If your Kalonzo hooks up with KANU, I agree it would significantly change the political landscape but it will be a major cock-up on his political CV and a betrayal of the millions of Orange supporters!
ReplyDeleteBefore he gets the KANU ticket, is Uhuru ready and willing cede leadership to Kalonzo? Or would they head to another ‘Moi-remote-controlled’ Kasarani kichinjio? Uhuru’s body language tells me he is not just ready to make way for any other candidate in KANU (note even Ruto is coming via ODM). Maybe they will form an alliance with Kalonzo’s already registered Plan B party – and therefore a coalition. But would they easily agree who will go first – the democrats that the two claim to be? Between the two, whoever agrees to be running mate, automatically says good bye to being elected MP.
Another thing, KANU’s manifesto in comparison to Kalonzo’s vision contrast sharply – as between day/night. I am waiting to see if he will trash the KANU manifesto in preference to his vision or vice versa. And whatever his choice, will KANU supporters (read Moi) allow him the leeway? I doubt it Chris. Also remember KANU’s constitution was amended just before Moi retired. It was amended so as to give the KANU chairman, then Moi, immense powers to control the party and therefore manipulate the State President from a party structure. I ask you Chris, is Kalonzo ready to accept this, in today’s volatile politics?
That Kalonzo has pockets of support nationally is not the question, but rather will these pockets follow him to KANU, and if the expansive RVP basket will automatically agree to vote for Kalonzo as KANU candidate? Remember Uhuru was forced on Rift Valley no so long ago with disastrous results! Even Coucillor Muindi is telling you that one cannot betray ideologies and expect voters to troop after him like chicken. Not any more in Kenya, and I sincerely hope Moi is reading this!
With Raila, Ruto, Mudavadi and Balala remaining in ODM, and faced with a resurgent KANU and NARK-K incumbency, I can say with certainty, they will have no problem reaching a consensus to support one of them. Thus, they will henceforth campaign as a formidable team in terms of provincial votes. The team will complicate matters for Kalonzo countrywide and also in his own Eastern province backyard, not forgetting Joe Nyagah is still part of the team as well as Madam Ngilu (who will join in ODM as a NARC corporate) following Kalonzo’s departure. Joe Nyagah was the first to ask Kalonzo to leave ODM while Madam Ngilu does not and has never seen eye to eye with Kalonzo.
In light of this, I do not think Kalonzo (or even Kibaki) will be able to counter this force – as an ODM compromise candidate could be any of these 5 or 6 individuals! Not even Moi’s ill-gotten wealth would propel Kalonzo anywhere near State House.
Chris, I just love this. Please ignore those loudmouths who want to talk even wen they have nothing to say. As to Kalonzo's popularity, you are ignoring one aspect. Even Uhuru cannot leave ODM now. Ok, yes, he may leave, but not to contest for presidency. Just to spoil for Raila. There is always an unwritten political rule in Kenya that "If it isn't me, then let us all fail". That's what Kalonzo seems to be working out.
ReplyDeleteGuys don't take me wrongly. I have been one of those who have advocated for Raila and Kalonzo (especially their supporters) to tone down on their never-ending fights. They are sending the wrong signals to Kenyans, and ODM supporters in particular. If any (including Raila) leaves ODM, Kenyans will never take him seriously. That's why Kalonzo cannot have any impact outside ODM. The only impact will be to put Kibaki safely back in State House.
But Chris, are u telling us that Raila has not envisaged life minus Kalonzo? Are you telling us he hasn't considered Kalonzo leaving? Raila needs to hold on to Ruto. This is the key. Mudavadi cannot even think of leaving ODM. Nazlin (oh, she must be the most miserable person in Kenya today) is inconsequential-I am not being arrogant; of course, she's needed. Uhuru, well, the guy seems to be backpedalling, but what impact will he have if Kibaki contests other than giving ODM a "National" outlook. Balala, that's another Raila project.
As for Kibaki's support in Central, everyone knows it's massive. You don't have to remind us. But please note that for every 5 votes in Central, there will be 4 in Nyanza (Central has many registered voters). With Ruto in Rift Valley, ODM automatically beats Kibaki. Western is already locked in ODM (but you never know. They are the most unpredictable lot, courtesy of one Musikari Kombo). Coast is 50-50. Esatern, wait and see. North Eastern will go to ODM as long as KANU stays.
And Chris, you have forgotten that Ngilu is just waiting for Kalonzo to leave ODM so she could come in? As much as she doesn't wield as much clout as Kalonzo, she's better than nothing. So, I do think the battle is still between Raila and Kibaki. But it's very true it's Kalonzo and Raila who'll determine who the next president will be!
Moi; I am afraid to say this but I think in a fair contest, Ruto beats him. But who says politics is a fair game. So, I still think Moi will also play the same role to Kalonzo's- spoiler. He can't determine who becomes president. He will only ensure Kibaki goes back to State House, which I think, he's much comfortable with.
I stand to be corrected.
Always, Dan!
Okay guys, let us get out of dreamland and take a few steps back.
ReplyDeleteThe rumour being spread by Chris is one that has been twisted so many times in the last 10 days that we seem to have lost the plot.
Here is how it all started. Conscious that an ODM nomination exercise completed in June will mean some people will break camp and weaken ODM, the Raila think tank came up with a proposal initially that consensus should lead to a Mudavadi candidature with Uhuru as VP and Raila as PM. This was quickly rubbished as antagonising Kalonzo who probably has a wider appeal than Mudavadi but all was to stay the same. Now word was let out that Raila seems amenable to the idea and was actually mulling over it and would let everyone else know.
This information spread like wild fire and you should not be surprised that Chris has taken up the angle he has, and even now wants to credit Moi with the Kalonzo presidency thing.
What people did not seem to realise was that Raila was going to mull over this way past the Kalonzo 30th June deadline where sometime in late July consensus will be declared dead. So as not to go the NARC-K way, sufficient preparations will be needed for the 420,000 voters who will nominate the final ODM candidate. This exercise will not have been completed by late August which means the final vote will be in September or early October to sort out all the wrangling in the branches. So come October, Raila wins the party nomination and it is suddenly too late for any of the others like Kalonzo to defect to ROAP or LDM to stand as presidential candidates, making them stick with ODM to hand Raila the presidency!!!
For Raila, the longer this process takes, the better it works for him, which explains Kalonzo's 30th June demand and now the carrot being dangled on his face!
Kibaki support from central is 100%. Its just wishful of you to imagine that even a vote will go to either Kalonzo or Raila. I say maybe 2012 for the two; for now its a one man show. i might even vote raila then!! Kibakis development record (and humour) will speak for itself in other areas. I travel vastly in Kenyas rural areas, and i know what they are saying. Chris where do you get your intelligence from?
ReplyDeleteI say try sending your informants out of Nairobi.