Many readers of this blog and indeed the majority of Kenyans currently are ODM-Kenya supporters. If by any chance you are reading this while standing up, may I ask you to sit down please, the news I have is not good.
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Also published today;
Goodbye flight KQ 507, we will never forget you
Magarini shocker: I don't want to believe the info I am getting
Quip of the day;
There are no permanent enemies in politics, only permanent unfulfilled ambitions
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I do not want to gloat that I told you so, but regular readers of this blog know what I have always said here about both ODM and Narc Kenya.
There has been a series of meetings in the expansive Rift Valley featuring MPs linked to ODM-Kenya all through the weekend. As usual the crafty foxes have been speaking in parables, but the gist of what they are saying is that Rift Valley MPs will not hesitate to abandon ship and move to another political alliance if they feel that interests of Rift Valley will be best served that way. They mince no words in vowing that they are going to make every effort to ensure that they are on the winning side this time round and therefore a part of the new government. They are also saying that they do not like what they are seeing within ODM-Kenya which according to them is imposing a presidential candidate on them who does not stand a chance of beating President Kibaki.
It is rather obvious who they are referring to but what I have been busy trying to find out is who the main “rebel” is. If we find out that name, then it will be very easy to read the direction in which all this is going. I have my suspicions of course and again regular readers of Kumekucha will remember that I warned you about this mzee very early but nobody wanted to listen.
We must not forget that this is politics and politics is a power game. No political party in their right mind can afford to ignore Rift Valley. The way President Moi carefully organized constituencies was so that Rift valley had a vast number of MPs, some of them in large constituencies but many of them in constituencies where the vote register does not exceed 10,000 voters. the whole idea was to always ensure that President Moi had a majority in parliament to prevent any mischief. Mr Moi’s structure is still very much in place.
To be honest the game is getting a wee little complex now because I am begining to get feelers that the Mois (Daniel and his son Gideon) and their colossal war chest may just opt to abandon Kibaki and go it alone. My reliable informants suggest that the trio have smelt blood and are circling confidently believing that they are well able to go for the kill alone. However knowing the way the older Moi has always played his politics, he may not want to inform Kibaki on exactly what is going on.
Actually the beginnings of a formidable third force are now beginning to show signs of being birthed.
I will keep a close eye on what is happening and all you need to do is watch this space and you will always be way ahead of everybody else. My sincere condolences to my ODM die-hard friends, it looks like the much talked about crack is in the offing
P.S. By the way, is it a mere coincidence that Kalonzo is campaigning in the Rift Valley at the moment? When all this is going on? He was in Cherengany yesterday where he asked President Moi to bless rather than curse young Kalenjin presidential aspirants (meaning of course Mr Ruto who has been shouting loudest about this ODM presidential thing where a candidate is being imposed on others who cannot win against Kibaki). I leave it to you my readers to work it out for yourself, because my guess is as good as yours.
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Chris, with the whole field fragmenting, don't you think this whole situation is falling into Kibaki's hands.
ReplyDeleteSecondly if KANU is to stand again, surely isn't it clear that this move is more of a negotiating tactic? KANU, in its original or bastardized form does not have any chance of winning.
No way Kenyans are going back to those stupid, perverse, dirty, thieving backward days of Moi and his henchmen eg Biwott. I think Kibaki should have jailed Moi pronto!!!
Three fundamental corrections here:
ReplyDeleteOne,if ODM takes the route some of u folks want it to take, then Moi's dictatorship would be such a towering democracy when it's compared with what would be unleashed to kenyans. The small time headmaster-like orders being issued by Anyang Nyongo are a sign of what kenyans should expect if some quarters were to find their way to state house. Perhaps these are the dudes who should be reminded that there is a very glaring difference between the politics of Kisumu Rural and national politics. there is a difference between the kenya political arena and some University of Nairobi classroom.
Calling the person behind Ruto's threat "the rebel" goes to show how amateurish the so much talked about mt. kenya mafia are in the mafia game. This Chris' line of thinking has trickled down to his students who shamelessly argue here that some people are "more committed to the odm cause" than others. It is day light hypocrisy to try to blame the problems of ODM on the likes of Ruto when everybody knows what the problem in ODM is. Ruto and followers are just planning to run away from chaos and mediocrity.
Two, Chris and those in his school of thought tend to think that only one presidential candiate in Kenya can make decisions on his own. Everybody else is a puppet on the string. This brinkmanship is a continuation of a series of blunders done by supporters of the Raila political ideology who persistently refuse to accept the fact that there is life outside their small box. If u guys were bigger supporters of the ODM institution than everyone else, u should have been the first to condemn some of the Idd Aminish barbs thrown at equal partners in coalition ODM. U didnt do that, u just blindly urged the self styled prefects in odm on. No matter how great the 20th century was,it is gone never to come back.
Three, what we should be mourning about is not the imminent fision of the ODM, it is the cause of the disintegration. For example, can anyone tell me how Uhuru Kenyatta is expected to be an enthusiastic supporter of ODM when some of his colleagues take on the podium to call his very own community "adui wetu"? What do the blind followers do when a party supremo says so? They dont correct him, they start a blog where they perpuate this backward way of reasoning. What moral authorty does any one of u who have been writing anti kikuyu stuff here have to baby-cry when your luo nationhood is attacked? The moment we glorify these outdated habits, they will mislead these so called leaders that this is what the masses want to hear. The end product is alienation of the ODM party from would be supporters. My point is that u can offer as much sympathy as u please but genuine party supporters have a duty to condemn exclusive tendencies even if that hurts their camp politically.
My humble opinion is that we can never cure a problem without examining the root cause.There is no Moi involved here. Ruto's threat is a tytpical case of the chickens coming home to roost. Ruto's, Balala's, Nyaga's and even the jobless Musalia's declarations that they too were willing and ready to play in the big league were not out of their own volitions. These were part of Raila Odinga's wider scheme to ethnically fragment the country to tame the threat posed by the more national candidates (Kibaki, Kalonzo and Uhuru.) The trick was that he could always hold these boys at ransom and use them to achieve his ends. What happens when the boys realize their folly?--- they set out to prove a point. In the game of politics these machiavelli beliefs have to be met with equal force. It doesnt matter how unordhodox the means to the end may sound. In this game theorem number one is an eye for an eye.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with witty games being met with the same. I personally will not mind a Kibaki triumph if that is what it would take some politicians to be a little bit more respectful and drop their outdated underhand dealings.
Kamotho is king. He will be the ultimate bomb if he doesnt quit officially. Should just stay a little bit longer to frustrate the forces of darkness in ODM.
The adage the more things change the more they remain the same couldn't have more apt in capturing our present political landscape. Our politicians are back to what they know best, making impressions of motions with no intended movements.
ReplyDeleteTrue, politics is about outwitting your opponent. But provided the long term objective is expediency and personal pursuit for power for its raw sake then you deserve no accolades. ODM can divide into all the shades it cares and even NK is no different but the ordinary Kenyan is left in poltical wilderness clutching the baby on an empty tribal bushel.
A close look at the s-called emrging thirs force will only reveal opportunists smartly scheming to waylay Kenyans politically. But BM's song differently, can they afford to fool us all the time?
"Rift Valley MPs Close Ranks Within ODM And Hint That They May Be Leaving"... thats very misleading Chris;
ReplyDeleteWhen a handful of former Moi henchmen hold a public rally in their tribal enclave, how do you conclude that to be an ODM disintegration? Some of the so called rift valley MPs will not see parliament in 2008. Its no wonder that they are just reacting to the launch of a perfect vision and are disappointed some of the their fellow Rift Valley MPs, who declined to jump into their tribal bandwagon, have seen the light and unequivocally endorsed the man (Raila) and the vision. I dont think that is disintegration. Infact it is the best way to fight tribalism in this country and Raila is showing the way for others to follow.
I dont understand what Vikii is talking about when he implies someone in ODM wants to compel others to follow a route which has not been agreed upon. As far as I am concerned, and this is public knowledge, the ODM candidates or its Governing Council have not yet agreed on a nomination method, although several options have been discussed and Raila has publicly stated he is ready for whichever method Ruto, Kalonzo, Ojiambo or Umar want then to use in nominating a presidential candidate. They have tried to make a scapegoat of Raila in jumping from one method to another just to invite some resistance, but Raila being smarter than any of them, has continued to dance to their tune. When Raila declares himself a favourite to face Kibaki, something that all ODM candidates have publicly done several times over in the past, he is instantly labeled a "dictator". The press is also cautioned by Kalonzo against painting the wrong impression! I thought the media's job is to report events as they occur as opposed to creating impressions. Double standards! Fairness, transparency and democracy, it seems, do not apply when it comes to Raila.
The only politically significant event to happen in Kenya this year is the launch of Raila's vision. Uhuru Kenyatta shot himself on the foot when called ODM an amorphous organisation! Infact, Uhuru is only Leader of Official Opposition by name. It is an open secret that he will not reclaim his Gatundu South parliamentary seat come December 2007! I haven’t seen him campaign for any opposition candidate in Magarini. On the other hand, former opinion poll favourite Kalonzo has yet to identify which nomination method he will use to nail Raila or better still use to defect from ODM. And for your information – Raila is the only ODM candidate to have in the past supported the right of the rest to run for presidential nomination in ODM ticket. Just ask Kalonzo, Ruto, Balala, etc where their political origins are.
By the way Chris, why did Kalonzo choose to display Kshs. 1 million cheque when collecting ODM nomination forms? We all know candidates were to collect forms, fill them out, collect provincial signatures then return them with the cheque. The cheque was not a prerequisite for collecting nomination forms. I consider it a very poor, childish and mischievous attempt by Kalonzo to embarrass ODM secretariat and the Council of Elders and show that he is more “capable” than other ODM candidates who collected forms before him.