In an earlier article in this site, I showed readers how President Kibaki has his 25 per cent of the vote requirement for his re-election assured in only 4 provinces and yet he needs 5. I named those 4 provinces already in the bag as Central, Nairobi, Eastern and Rift Valley. So you can imagine my reaction when I came across news two days ago of the new proposal from the government side in the ongoing constitutional review talks that 4 new provinces be formed.
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Quip for the day;
The consequences of things are not always proportionate to the apparent magnitude of those events that have produced them. Thus the American Revolution, from which little was expected, produced much; but the French Revolution, from which much was expected, produced little."
Charles Caleb Colton quotes (English sportsman and writer, 1780-1832)
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My jaw dropped almost to the ground. Could this be a ploy to secure the elusive 5th province for the incumbent? Or knowing that this is a very sensitive issue, could it be yet another delaying tactic to ensure that the talks drag on until the elections are virtually at our doorstep and it is too late to legislate certain sensitive proposals that are deemed unfriendly to the incumbent?
Still, this new proposal raises another even more disturbing question. Is this government sensitive to the goings-on in the country and especially the extremely prickly nature of new boundaries? We have seen the trouble that the creation of new districts has caused in places like Meru where houses were even razed to the ground recently. We have also seen politicians almost coming to blows over where the district headquarters of a new district should be. What then can we expect from the creation of new provinces? And not just one or two but FOUR provinces?
And the new government proposal gets even more interesting when one sits down to analyze the four provinces most likely to yield new provinces, if the proposal goes through. They are the vast and densely populated Rift Valley, densely populated Central and Nairobi and the huge and densely populated in many areas, Eastern. The exact same provinces where the president already has his 25 per cent!
Meaning that even if the requirement for presidential candidates to be elected were increased from 5 to even 8 provinces, the incumbent will still not have any serious problems attaining the new requirement. Albeit depending on where the new boundaries are in some of the new provinces. Admittedly that is not a problem because we all know where the task of mapping out the new boundaries will fall.
This brings us to my earlier point in this site, which was not well received by many of you. And that is one of the first things we must escape from is the habit of making constitutional amendments for selfish self-serving reasons.
Before we even start looking at the boundaries, the priority for Kenya at the moment is urgently required change in leadership, style of governance and our politics. Otherwise the creation of new provinces and districts is simply creating new centers of concentration for resources to enable more "eating" by politicians and our so-called leaders.
Interestingly this latest revelation was made by assistant ministers Mwangi Kiunjuri and Danston Mungatana after a so-called tour of Magarani constituency where a by-election is due.
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It would be extremely stupid for the government to think of creating new provinces. I have not seen the usefulness of a province as an administrative unit so far. I understand the importance of a district but a province to me is just an area created to get jobs to some peole. Creation of new provinces has very serious cost implications and is one load of noinsense.
ReplyDeleteHowever, we should not trivialise every discussion by linking it with the 2007 elections. In my opinion, if things stand as they do now, Mwai Kibaki will get 25% in 8 provinces out of 8. Please dont shout nyanza, because the name of the province is Nyanza province and not Luo Nyanza province. I see kibaki getting 30% in nyanza and Coast provinces and close to or more than 50% in all other provinces. We in the odm seem to be the most optimistic bunch forgeting that if wishes were horses even beggars could ride.
Chris dont u think your argument is vastly wanting when u say the government propoese the additional provinces to ensure Kibaki will get 25% in 5 provinces when the same review talks are proposing a 50% score for the winner? These two requirements complementary in my opinion coz u cant get 50% score and get less than 25% in more than 3 provinces. That cant just happen.
All said and done let us concede ddefeat to kibaki. honestly, if the stupidity we are seeing in odm is not put to a stop then ibaki will win with the same margin he won with in 2002 i.e 68% of the total vote. We do not expect tribal chiefs to beat hi,do we? ODM has a duty to unite under someone with a national appeal if they hope to send Kibaki packing.
Chris, I think the creation of new provinces, districts and even consituencies is something that is overdue. Think of the vast Rift Valley for example. The same provinces we inherited from colonialist are the same one's that still exist. I wonder why this remains so when we know population has increased significantly and a lot of changes have taken place on the ground? For example we now have towns that used to be major commercial centres are now ghost towns.
ReplyDeleteThe Provincial Commissioner, apart from playing a government administrative role locally, is in essence the President's eye and ear in the provinces. The more eyes and ears the president has in Kenya, the better it is. It will help render kitchen cabinets irrevant and make the president more informed of what is going on in the ground.
About the 25% requirement in five provinces, it would be fair to increase the number of provinces required for a president from the current 5 to 75% of whatever number of provinces we eventually create. So Kibaki will never get away with 5 provinces, not just yet.
Kibaki will get over 40% in all the provinces. He has dished ministries, projects, CDF and other development 'goodies' to virtually every province. Even in Nyanza, where there are ministries in Kisii Nyanza and in Kuria land, Kibaki will get votes.
ReplyDeleteAt times I wonder when people say that Kibaki cannot get votes in Eastern Province because of Ngilu or Kalonzo. Bring them on and count the votes.
Even in Kambaland, Kibaki has given more than Moi and Kenyatta did in 40 years.
Where is raila to say 'Tosa' again.
Long Live Kibaki. Tosha!!!