Already it is quite clear that if there is a particular aspect that the 2007 general elections will be remembered for then it will have to be opinion polls. Kenyans have already had so many polls stuffed down their necks that serious indigestion must already have set in. And it seems that we "ain't seen anything yet."
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Also published in Kumekucha Daily today
This is how ridiculous opinion polls ca get
What is PR? What does a spin doctor do?
Mutahi Kagwe's PR outfit and the real Ukweli wa mambo
Quip for the day:
"The most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed."
Steve Biko in a speech in Cape Town, 1971
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Did you know that to do a simple opinion poll usually costs millions of shillings? So who's financing all these polls popping out faster than popcorn from a hot popcorn-making machine? To some Kenyans, anybody who asks such a question is a Raila supporter.
But why do we seem to have so many opinion polls this time round? It is important that as many ordinary Kenyans as possible understand the answer to that pertinent question.
It will be remembered that last year it was announced that the government had contracted the service of a prestigious International PR outfit. The massive amounts of polls that have now polluted the country are a direct result of that. The truth is that opinion polls are a key PR tool in the hands of political spin-doctors.
The most evil man who ever lived, one Adolf Hitler understood very well the power of PR and propaganda. Throughout his campaign to be elected the leader of the German people, he was careful to be photographed only in military uniform and the idea was to portray toughness and patriotism to a public that were hungering for it. Shortly before the polls, which Herr Hitler easily won, an arsonist was caught red-handed setting fire to parliament. Predictably it was discovered that he was a communist and inevitably those Germans that had yet to be convinced of Hitler Tosha, now out of fear of the communists taking over power gravitated to Hitler's side. Little did they know that they had just moved from a non-existent frying pan into the fire itself. The German electorate in the 1930s lived to regret their choice—albeit at least many of them because millions others ended up dead and the world was never the same again.
Interestingly the main reason why George W. Bush is still in the White House today is because his handlers managed to spread fear amongst the American electorate that if Kerry were to be elected, repeats of 9/11 would be frequent in the US. They also managed to convince the public that George W. Bush was the only Dawa ya Osama. And right on cue, Osama Bin Laden himself even released another of those threatening tapes of his just before Americans went to the polls and that is what clinched re-election for Bush Junior.
Fascinatingly the Kibaki campaign team is heading in a similar direction. Already we are being told that electing anybody other than Kibaki will be to plunge the country into chaos. At this rate one wonders how we ever managed without him as president. Exactly the same strategy is being used quite effectively in the Nigerian general elections.
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Hi Chris. I have read your articles on opinion polls with a lot of amusement. Ordinarily, most of your articles are very informative, if somewhat slanted. I may not necessarily be anti-Raila, as you seem to expect those disagreeing with your position are, but what you need to know is that propaganda is two-sided.
ReplyDeleteThose who think the propaganda is targeted to hurt their chances are no fools - they have an equal capacity if not more to respond through the same way.
In any case, as Arch-Bishop Ndingi recently put it, how come those complaining were silent when the polls seemed to favour them?
Someone even went as far as suggesting that Waititu is a Kikuyu, hence the kind of results he released. Was he a Luo in 2005 when Kibaki had a rating of 24%. Am sure you will agree with me that at that time even die-hard Kibaki supporters were doubting him in 2005. That tells you that the reality on the ground is changing.
If i was to be naive and foolish and take the same tribal posturing, I would quickly point out that one of the key architects of the IRI poll is infact a Luo, but I choose to distance myself from that kind of thinking.
The other issue you seem to deliberately ignore is the fact that polls have been published quarterly since 2005, usually a month apart of each other(Steadman and IRI).There is no unusual frequency,although this being an election year, i expect that to change.
Lastly, you are too obsessed with the President's age, much the same way ODM has been obsessed with criticizing without offering alternative vie-points, even in obvious cases where positive change is being realised. I hope for your own sake you dont eat humble pie at the end of the year!!
Simon says,
ReplyDeleteTalking of spinning, you have spinned todays date. I must say you are very good at it chris
Chris your red flag is almost up!
ReplyDeleteRed flag, humble pies or not, call it what you want, but at least Chris has made an effort in trying to educate / inform us in coming up with relevant posts. Most of you bloggers are quick to criticise the messenger but conveniently avoid the topic in question.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Chris should leave some space in the blog for these smart alecs to post the topics they appear so well informed on. Something like "letters /contributions to the editor" in a conventional newspaper would do.
Chris I believe is entitled to his opinion just like everybody else.
Thanx Phil.
ReplyDeleteLet us remember that the same people using polls to achieve certain objectives for certain clients also read this blog and their work is to ensure that their findings are confirmed judging from the number of comments left here supporting their viewpoint and their polls. Get my drift?
It is all very careful and very mathematical, carefully highlighting all the factual errors to drive their point home.
Most ordinary readers do not leave comments. They read, digest and move on with their busy day. This is a very high traffic site and I am beginning to get worried that without enough Phil's around to smoke out some of these guys...
Just ask yourself the simple question. Why would somebody defend the opinion polls so much and completely ignore the burning issues?
Opinion polls in the US in the early days were proved terribly wrong sometimes. It took years for them to get it right.
-Kumekucha-
P.S. I am also anxiously waiting for Jan 2008 to see if the people of Kenya, the down and outs I talk to every day, were telling me lies.
They still don't want to answer my simple question WHO pays for this opinion polls? WHO?
ReplyDeleteIf it is the companies who dig into their own pockets, how do they make it work? The truth please, I already have documentary evidence.
Pies or flags are neither here nor there. We have simply bought the lies of propagandists line, hook and sinker. Justifying untruths premised on cooked numbers that clothe it in pseudo-intellectual gab doesn't guarantee authenticity, or does it?
ReplyDeleteFellow countrymen, the simple fact remains that we are being fooled around by spin doctors. Kenya in particular with over 60% of its mass starving cannot afford to live the luxury of opinion polls. We have simply resigned ourselves to tokenism which we unwittingly praise as progress.
Make no mistake. The average Kenyan is no fool and all these balderdash about polls will no sanitize the evident rot. We deserve tangible development and refuse to engage in reverse logic of bringing the smart opponent down to our level instead of measurinmg up to him. It is an insensitive insult to the collective intelligence of Kenyans to use the ruinous Moi era as the benchmark of evaluating our properity.
Age is a fundamental factor in progressive thinking and the old are known to be conservative. I hold no brief for Chris, but his 'obsession' with age is both founded and logic. We demand objective leadership guided by vision and not modelled on Makerere nostalgia of yore. It is one thing to be a village 'genius' of 1950s surrounding yourself with dimwits and dinosaurs protecting staus quo and quite another to embrace the dynamicss of the present world.
The suffocating opinion polls are products of spin doctors, period. We are capitalissts per excellence and these pollsters are shrewd enterprenuers who will not miss an opportunity to make a killing when they smell one. Their initial credibility was cleverley meant to up their price. Once that was bagged they are now out for the highest bidder.
The figureheads at these firms can be descendants of hell for all I care but their motive is princiapply financial. We do our motherland no good to lynch the messenger while conviniently avoiding the message or gloating it to suit partisan interests.
Do we call ourselvesd the most educated country in Africa? I am afraid we are not if this is how we reason. Who funds these polls is a non issue. As far as I am concerned these pollsters and especially steadman (I have intricate knowledge of their weighted sampling,compilation and release of the findings) are right. Who is fooling who here? Simply because these polls cast Raila as a potential 'also ran, we are now talking about the "Big Issue" of who funds them. Lol when Chris says we should wait for 2008, he should know that no miracle is gonna happen. And those folks who tell u of a different feeling on the ground, are they kenyans or some nubians from wherever?
ReplyDeleteI am convinced each one of us has enough knowledge to make these debates quality debates, but the moment u start highliting the misachievements of the president and attribute them to age, then we will bend to your level and tell u that a 62 year old is not a teenager. If anybody seriously thinks we should have a generational change in leadership then he should point out that raila Odinga is also a very old politician who is only polishing his hair with kiwi to appear young. If Kibaki should pack and go because of his age then he should also reserve a seat in the bus for raila who is not young by any standards.
If ODM holds a fair and inclusive presidential nomination done by THE PEOPLE OF KENYA then they will score something close to 60% of the vote but if each one of them goes on with their own bids, then I am afraid Kibaki will get the same 60% of the total vote. Do we expect Kenyans to cntinue backing small time tribal elders? The answer is no and that explains the shocking findings of these pollsters.
Again here we go, the false dichotomy of Kibaki and Raila. That when someone criticises Kibaki, you must juxtapose him with Raila. Some of us are tired of the entire current crop and are wishing the pool was wider. At least for now we're only wishing...
ReplyDeleteThe biggest ever study of international urban conditions discovered that one billion people live in absolute squalor, without water or sanitation, public infrastructure or security of tenure. The research was carried out by the UN human settlement programme, UN-Habitat, based in Nairobi, Kenya. The Kibera district of Nairobi is the largest slum in the world, containing approximately three quarters of a million people. The Dhavari area of Mumbai (formerly Bombay) and the Orangi district of Karachi, Pakistan, are only slightly smaller. In West Africa the Ghanaian city of Tema harbours the Ashaiman slum, which has grown larger than the city proper.
ReplyDeleteThis is for u Phil. All this information is all over. I dont want it to appear like i am engaging u but i thought u should know i am not about to accept smalltime tutorials fro ya.