Evidence That The G7 is Headed Nowhere

Admittedly there are very few likeable things about the game called politics but one thing that I personally love about it is the fact that copy cats usually end up in terrible grief. This is in sharp contrast to the situation in business and commerce where copycats quite often benefit much more than the originators. The nature of politics is too dependent on the mood of the country and the unique situation as folks go to the polls for every election for the same old trick to work again and again.

Unelectable compromise candidates?

In the ill-fated 2007 general elections presidential candidate Raila Odinga’s strategy of identifying popular tribal chiefs from various parts of the country and bringing them all under the ODM umbrella worked like a charm. Of course it was helped by the fact that President Mwai Kibaki had succeeded in provoking animosity against his administration from the entire country. To make matters worse the president’s handlers chose to use a campaign strategy for the president’s re-election that was very tribal in nature and served only to alienate his administration even further.

I have said this here many times and I will repeat it yet again. Kenyans did not vote for Raila Odinga in 2007 rather the vast majority cast their votes against Mwai Kibaki.

Now fast forward to 2012 and William Ruto, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka amongst others are pretty sure that the exact same approach will work this time round. Uhuru and Ruto are so blinded in their rage against Raila Odinga that they have failed to see that the Odinga campaign bus is headed in a slightly different direction this time round. Although his strategy still relies on having point men/women in different regions of the country, there is a lot of emphasis on talking directly to the electorate.

If there was any doubt as to how sure some folks are that this G7 strategy will work then it was dispelled when Kalonzo Musyoka was shunned recently. His reaction was very telling. The watermelon VP went on his knees before President Kibaki who intervened on his behalf and ordered Uhuru and Ruto to accept the VP back into their fold.

My big question is; what will happen when this strategy falls flat on its’ face?

Indeed there is plenty of evidence on the ground that voters will totally ignore these tribal groupings that their leaders are so determined to classify them into for very selfish voting purposes. I have talked to numerous Kenyans in the so-called voting blocks most of whom are very sure that the days of voting according to instructions from the tribal chief are over. And if you doubt what I am saying just take the time to study the results of the referendum on the new constitution two years ago.

Many of my readers here are also in touch with people on the ground and it will be interesting if they can share their observations in the comments below.

But above all else, there will be a major problem when members of the G7 have to decide on a presidential candidate. Assuming that that candidate is William Ruto, you can be sure that the Kikuyu vote will vanish. Assuming that it is Uhuru Kenyatta, the Kalenjin vote will also evaporate into thin air whether Ruto remains in the G7 or not. The ideal solution would be to choose a compromise candidate. Somebody like Kalonzo Musyoka. However the problem with that is that Musyoka is unelectable and so are all the other possible compromise candidates in G7 at the moment. My take is that the G7 is a very noisy and crowded train headed for a place called Nowhere.

See also; 

Why Does Jimmy Kibaki want Eugene Wamalwa to be the next president?

What John Kerry has in Common with Kalonzo Musyoka 

Will Mwalimu Mati still stand for president?

Moi Endorsing Uhuru is Right and Interesting

While many Kenyans saw the vintage Moi endorse the DPM Uhuru at Karume's funeral, others the whole campaign spiced in poisoned chalice. Call it Uhuru project II, but the retired President also has the democratic right to choose and voice his opinions and feelings. And that is the right side of his speech.

The interesting bit can be deciphered from the genesis of turning funerals into campaign platforms. Afterall this sickening practice was conceived, delivered and nurtured during Uncle Dan's ERA. Those were the days when you could not separate a leader's personal views from government policies. And what is more, just like the dreaded one O'clock news, many were hired and fired at funerals. So forget Moi's hitherto hollow advice for people to respect the dead by avoiding politics at funerals. The master was only perfecting his invention.

That said, give credit to baba Gigi on fidelity. He singularly believed in UK project 10 years ago and his consistency is a rare gem among our politicians. He may have only mentioned Central Kenya leadership but you don't need to be a neurologists to dissect the bigger picture and the wider implications of his declaration.

Oh, please forget that fad of ICC nonsense as a Yorke burdening Uhuru's neck. Moi the nationalist knows better as he warned ages ago about neocolonialism. This is the same Professor of politics who had warned us of Rwanda-like genocide to dissuade Kenyans from advocating for multipartism. Well, the proof in his scare mongering can be sampled from the present fractious, nay tribal, political pudding.

Nobody can fault Moi for answering to people's pleas. It was the same people who have been pestering the reluctant President Kibaki to anoint a successor. Not one to shun controversies nor fear backlash, Moi has stepped to the plate and called Kenyans bluff.

It is a free world and Moi has voiced his choice. Moi never cares about what you think about him, his failures and success notwithstanding. Kenyans will have the opportunity to either support his choice of embarrass his one more time come election time. The heat is one and only those hardy enough to stand the embers will be left standing.