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Sunday, January 31, 2010

Interesting presidential race already shaping up

The man having a word with George Saitoti (Peter Kenneth) wants to be your president.

One of the things I like best about the American system is how quickly pretenders to the presidency get eliminated out of the race. Alas, back home in Kenya they remain in the ballot to the very last minute some struggling to get a mere 100 votes countrywide. The good thing about the proposed new constitution for Kenya is that it means that a run off is inevitable between the top two candidates so as to enable them garner the 50% plus one majority required for one to be declared president.

Still having said that, there are some rather fascinating developments in the 2012 race for the presidency. Clearly what we are going to see is a struggle between the old and the new order of things. The old will be represented by the usual suspects, Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto (if they escape Hague) etc. The new will have the kind of names that may cause you to laugh today. Eugene Wamalwa, Peter Kenneth, Mwalimu Mati etc. Yep, you may laugh now, but as the polls near one thing I am sure of is that tables will be turned and people will be laughing at the old order and wondering what the hell they will be doing using the same old tricks and tactics to try and land in State House when they should be trading good-old-evil-days stories with Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki at some goat eating party deep in the rural areas. Kenyans are clearly screaming for a brand new beginning. In fact I dare predict that the number of votes the old folks will get this time round will shock people in terms of how few they will be.

It may not be evident now but closer to the presidential elections you may want to ask yourself what people like Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila Odinga are doing running for the presidency when a brand new dawn and beginning is beckoning for the nation. I am still waiting to see the servant leadership that Kalonzo was talking about during his campaigns for the presidency in 2007. Surely he should have shown us something as VP that would convince us that he was serious. Raila Odinga is no better because every day he sounds more and more like Moi and behaves very much like the dictatorial and firm ruler who straddled the Kenyan political landscape for 24 long years. Interestingly I now see the Raila camp falling for the very same opinion polls that cheated Kalonzo Musyoka that he was popular enough to make a decent stab at the presidency in 2007. My sincere apologies to Raila and Kalonzo worshipers but let us wait and see, shall we?

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t see any presidential potential in the likes of Eugene Wamalwa and Peter Kenneth. But what I like about what they are doing is that it will provoke the candidature other new entrants into politics with true leadership potential.

A Kumekucha classic from the past: My encounter with Lucy Kibaki

P.S. One of the ways of checking the powers of the presidency that the COE and parliament may want to look at is to reduce the presidential term from 5 years to 4 years. Four years is long enough to bring positive changes but not nearly long enough to establish an effective self-serving power base. There are many advantages to having a short time as the most powerful man in Kenya including the fact that you remain very focused on what you were elected to do. A president of a country with so many nagging problems like Kenya has no business sleeping for 8 hours let alone 16 hours like one Emilio regularly does. 4 years means that the guy has to stay awake longer to maximize on their short time in power and if they do a good job they can then get elected for another 4 short years.

P.S. 2 My weekend special resumes next weekend. I will announce the hot topic I plan to tackle in the course of the week.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

God help Kenya.
We are so fractured and lost.We're like orphans.We're dying like flies....look at the case of Martin Njuma, then the police says 'the young man shouldn't have been driving at that time of the night'....!!!!surely i should be able to drive any damn time i please and still be safe?????Look at the turkanas in north Kenya starving like they belong in another planet while fellow kenyans aka 'leaders' Kibaki and Raila go to bed snoring with swollen bellies.
Now we have Peter Kenneth and Wamalwa ati wanting to lead us and we all know that they are the same old recycled shaite.
God help us!!!!!!!

Mwarang'ethe said...

Still having said that, there are some rather fascinating developments in the 2012 race for the presidency. Clearly what we are going to see is a struggle between the old and the new order of things.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Chris, tell us this.

What is the agenda/content of the new order of things you have talked about?

In other words, what is the game plan for this new agenda in the following areas:

(a) Money and banking question.
(b) Land question.
(c) Taxation question.
(d) Legal reforms.
(e) Free trade question.
(f) The debt question.
(g) Agricultural sector.
(h) Industrial policy.
(i) Unemployment and crime cos these go together.
(j) Educational reforms.

If one cannot show us any change in any of these areas, then, where will the new order come from?

A new order cannot come from just new faces, it must come from a change of direction/policy in some of these areas.

You are falling for delusions like Americans did with Obama, for the game plan is still the same.

Kimi Raikkonen said...

A new order? What is that? Russian communists, the Red Brigades, the Tupac Amarus, Aum Shin Rikyo etc., all used to froth the same pathetic slogan in wide-eyed ignorance about the realities of human nature.
The truth is that political culture in Kenya won't change any time in the near future, and only those with tons of money and a top notch political machine backed by powerful allies in both politics and business such as Uhuru, Ruto, Raila and Kalonzo, will be able to compete for the Presidency. To imagine a boring speaker like Peter Kenneth can start and fire up a Presidential campaign enough to upstage the above fellows is to be exceedingly naive.

Injeraz said...

Kenyans are not that mature yet, they still flock like sheep to the Railas, Rutos and Kibakis. Maybe in 20,30 yrs..maybe

Anonymous said...

Chris, dream on.

the next PORK will be one of the nyang'aus we presently have. with pnu advocating for a big bad predident/king, i shudder to imagine what some of these people will do with such humongous powers.
the truth is that RAO is the one-the earlier we learn to accept this the lesser the likelihood of a repeat of PEV.

Taabu said...

Chris,
Can we bet your PENSION on your prediction? Please don't dare lest you die a destitute. Textbook stuff is often at variance with reality as expounded by Kimi above. I hope that is wrong but fear it is true.

Your planet must be very civilized, please invite more Kenyans.

PS: Please pass my pole to AW. I hear Luka is busy writing LV's orbituary. We are the .......

Anonymous said...

WILL ALWAYS REMIND KIKUYUS THAT NJENGA THE MUNGIKI LEADER IS THE NEXT BIG THING AMONG YOU. MOI (HE WHO SEES BEYOND TREES LIKE A GIRAFFE)GAVE THE MUNGIKI BOSS AN AUDIENCE IN ELDI.
HAYA, BRODA SISTER, WILL YOU STICK WITH THE HEADLESS PNU OR JOIN THE NJENGA THE UNDISPUTED FUTURE KIKUYU LEADER? (FORGET HIYO BAPTISM YA WANJIRU) MARK YOU THEIR PANGAS ARE READY FOR ANY DISSENTING VOICES AMONG YOU. VERY SOON EVEN THE UHURUS, KALONZOS AND OTHER VULTURES WILL BE STRUGGLING FOR HIS ATTENTION BECAUSE HE HAS THE KIKUYU VOTES IN HIS POCKETS.WAITITI SIJUI NANI TESTED THE WATERS AND THE CROWD DIDN'T WANT ANYTHING TO DO WITH HIM - THIS SHOULD AHVE SERVED AS A WARNING SHOT TO THE OTHER 'LEADERS'
HAHAHA..HEEEEEHEHEHE......WOIYE, POOR "US", I SHUDDER TO IMAGINE A PARLIAMENT THAT IS AT LEAST ONE THIRD MUNGIKI.

Anonymous said...

My prediction is this. With a new voters register devoid of 2 million dead people, with some form of electoral reforms and with an independent electoral body 2012 will surprise many. Infact, the contest will be between the old order and an new order but the new order will not be anyone you expect. He will rise from the diaspora and run a very organized campaign. H e will use the fact that he was hounded out of Kenya to win sympathy votes yet he will come with very practical ideas that the masses will like. I only fear for his security. Infact progressive minded politicians and the civil society will back him fully. So Raila, Ruto, Uhuru, Karua, and Klonzo will all be on the ballot. We may even have some like Kenneth and we will also have this new entrant. Thing is Raila, Ruto, Uhuru, Karua will all have their votes but will they be bigger than the votes of Kenyans yearning for alternative leadership? No! In fact a run off will be inevitable since even the new entrant will not garner >50% votes but he will have enough votes to go into a run-off and it's in the run-off that he will sweep to victory. As we will have embraced imperial presidency, he will kind of be a benevolent dictator and Kenya will never be the same again. Bet with me.

Phil said...

Blogger Chris said....
Raila Odinga is no better because every day he sounds more and more like Moi and behaves very much like the dictatorial and firm ruler who straddled the Kenyan political landscape for 24 long years. Interestingly I now see the Raila camp falling for the very same opinion polls that cheated Kalonzo Musyoka that he was popular enough to make a decent stab at the presidency in 2007.


Jeeezzzzz! No wonder arsenal supporters in Kenya like Vikii are prone to commiting suicide. Not surprising at all.

Now Chris wants to compare RAO to Moi, of all people? I dont know what what your taking Chris, but whatever it is , 'ngo slow'....wacha ngwai daddy. Hii yako sijui kama ni gum ama ni ngwai!?

Just to refresh your 'higher than the clouds' mind Chris, ever since RAO declared his candidature for presidency, he has not only led in opinion polls to date, he actually WON the 2007 elections.

Do not twist history to please your status quo masters Chris..

Could you define for us a dictator ? Is a dictator someone who agrees to be insulted day in day out by KANU hirelings like WSR and JIBU?

Do you become a dictator because you merely convinced striking matatu workers or KNUT teachers to resume work? Or do you become a dictator because you want to repossess a water tower that was grabbed when godfather Moi was in power?

Chris....wachana na ODM. Andika ya PNU hiyo yenu. we dont need your vote, opinion or even advise. Anzisheni yenu na Sam Okello then tukutane kwa debe...

Give us - ODM - a break! Which AGENDA DO these so called young leaders have? (A fifity year old like Jimmy Kibaki is now kijana, according to Chris' warped logic).

By the way....what happened to Livondo? Ama pia yeye ame enda exile kama Oscar?

Taabu said...

Phil,
Point of CORRECTION, Vikii is not a GONNER (like Chris). Your comment will incite the Drog and together with Nico they will rave.

But not just yet for the lady (C) leads other clubs like Luka's LFC whose orbituary is ready. BUT there is only one institution, we are the .........

Anonymous said...

Raila amevunja record of waffling; yesterday it was parliamentary democracy, today it is pure (dictatorial) presidency. Huyu mtu ni nyang'ao kweli, kweli. A delusional political prostitute ni Raila Amolo Odinga and in 2012 we (the Kenyan people) shall retire him permanently. Kazi bule kabisa.

Anonymous said...

I am so thankful I was not born a LUO!

Anonymous said...

To Phil, all the political parties (LITERALLY) in the country are struggling. It is basically the birth pangs of impending coalitions and political statements that will see several Mps lose out, including your own Raila

Anonymous said...

AM ALSO SO THANKFUL I WAS NOT BORN A KIKUYU. BULLSHIT!

Mbaka Ndungu said...

Phil,what were those Raila ass lickers doing calling a press conference to defend Mo1 from that attack by a Canadian advisor on coalition politics called Miguna mara mbili?Do you sincerely want us to believe RAO wasnt involved?Those sycophants just stopped short of calling Moi a statesman!

Vikii said...

Eti Vikii supports Ass-n-all? Frank Lampard all the way my friend.

As for Raila, he is exactly like Moi just as Phil is another Otieno Kajwang!

Anonymous said...

Anytime one views leadership through dichotomies like "old and young", "KANU, PNU, ODM etc", "Meru, Luo, Kikuyu, Turkana", there is a danger that the focus will be on the "who", "what, color, race or creed" etc. The consequence is that the analysis becomes pedestrian. Leadership is developed through a series of concrete and measurable steps that helps the electorate or the "led" to view the individual contender through deliberately designed evaluation lenses.

Hence, it is beyond question that Kenya has always gotten leaders, in particular presidents, whose preparation and qualities were a terrible mismatch for the role.In the circumstances they also got the just desserts of their choice. Regrettably, they found convenience in blaming their mistake on the constitution.
Moi became president by default, through a constitutional provision. I am certain Kalonzo might be tempted to see this as a good route to state house. Moi bestrode Kenya like a collosus, for 24 years, often making the presidency look like a homestead career. Kibaki, was a "tosha" president, the product of the euphoria of frenzied disillusionment with the status quo. Kibaki might be happy he is not constitutionally required to issue "State-of-the-Union-like"report cards on his job!
Enter the new aspirants. Their motivation is that the terrain is an easy one, no accountabilities, tribal enclaves and lots of suppression ammunition. Nobody asked what Kibaki was bringing to the presidency, nor how Moi's 24 years reflected his resume. Similarly, individuals with very unimpressive resumes e.g.grammar school lawyers, with a couple of years criminal law practice, one-term MPs and ministers, former parastatal accountants and procurement staffers, or even former YK functionaries all want to be president. What their resumes offer is something Kenyans are never terribly bothered about...until they discover afterwards what they did to themselves.Kenya does not do a good job grooming leaders. Otherwise we would not have people waking up and saying they dreamt they had been annointed presidents.

Anonymous said...

Is becoming the president of Kenya the only dream you people have? When others are dreaming of building a passenger carrier to space, Kenyan can only fight to become a president. Pathetic!

In a country ravaged by AIDS why can't someone dream of finding a vaccine for this killer disease?

Kumekucha Princess

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