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Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Evidence That The G7 is Headed Nowhere

Admittedly there are very few likeable things about the game called politics but one thing that I personally love about it is the fact that copy cats usually end up in terrible grief. This is in sharp contrast to the situation in business and commerce where copycats quite often benefit much more than the originators. The nature of politics is too dependent on the mood of the country and the unique situation as folks go to the polls for every election for the same old trick to work again and again.

Unelectable compromise candidates?

In the ill-fated 2007 general elections presidential candidate Raila Odinga’s strategy of identifying popular tribal chiefs from various parts of the country and bringing them all under the ODM umbrella worked like a charm. Of course it was helped by the fact that President Mwai Kibaki had succeeded in provoking animosity against his administration from the entire country. To make matters worse the president’s handlers chose to use a campaign strategy for the president’s re-election that was very tribal in nature and served only to alienate his administration even further.

I have said this here many times and I will repeat it yet again. Kenyans did not vote for Raila Odinga in 2007 rather the vast majority cast their votes against Mwai Kibaki.

Now fast forward to 2012 and William Ruto, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka amongst others are pretty sure that the exact same approach will work this time round. Uhuru and Ruto are so blinded in their rage against Raila Odinga that they have failed to see that the Odinga campaign bus is headed in a slightly different direction this time round. Although his strategy still relies on having point men/women in different regions of the country, there is a lot of emphasis on talking directly to the electorate.

If there was any doubt as to how sure some folks are that this G7 strategy will work then it was dispelled when Kalonzo Musyoka was shunned recently. His reaction was very telling. The watermelon VP went on his knees before President Kibaki who intervened on his behalf and ordered Uhuru and Ruto to accept the VP back into their fold.

My big question is; what will happen when this strategy falls flat on its’ face?

Indeed there is plenty of evidence on the ground that voters will totally ignore these tribal groupings that their leaders are so determined to classify them into for very selfish voting purposes. I have talked to numerous Kenyans in the so-called voting blocks most of whom are very sure that the days of voting according to instructions from the tribal chief are over. And if you doubt what I am saying just take the time to study the results of the referendum on the new constitution two years ago.

Many of my readers here are also in touch with people on the ground and it will be interesting if they can share their observations in the comments below.

But above all else, there will be a major problem when members of the G7 have to decide on a presidential candidate. Assuming that that candidate is William Ruto, you can be sure that the Kikuyu vote will vanish. Assuming that it is Uhuru Kenyatta, the Kalenjin vote will also evaporate into thin air whether Ruto remains in the G7 or not. The ideal solution would be to choose a compromise candidate. Somebody like Kalonzo Musyoka. However the problem with that is that Musyoka is unelectable and so are all the other possible compromise candidates in G7 at the moment. My take is that the G7 is a very noisy and crowded train headed for a place called Nowhere.

See also; 

Why Does Jimmy Kibaki want Eugene Wamalwa to be the next president?

What John Kerry has in Common with Kalonzo Musyoka 

Will Mwalimu Mati still stand for president?

15 comments:

Mkenya Damu said...

You can be more right than this Chris but me thinks voters will reject ODM too and gor for a totaly new breed of politician ,i think there is an opportunity for the progressives fifty somethins to take this thing but only if they unite.Tuju-PK or Tuju-Karua or PK -Tuju

Anonymous said...

G7 alliance remains potent as long as UK will be the flag bearer. We all know that Central Kenya & their diaspora can only vote for their own. Anyone thinking Ruto, Wamalwa or Kalanzo can be the flag bearer & UK the running mate or less(majorty leader/Govonor of Nairobi/Hague resident) & Central tag along is living in wonderland.If that were to happen(hypothetical scenario), Kyuk votes will AUTOMATICALLY shift to Karua, Peter Kenneth, Paul Muite, hell Matiba!!?! It would be far easier but still daunting for UK to be the flagbearer & Ruto his running mate. Although I'm not so sure all Kales will tag along with such an arrangement.

Anonymous said...

What will G7 stand for when the going gets tough? Will it end up being known as the 'Guarded Seven' or 'Grounded Seven'?

On a serious note, are Kenyans from all walks of life - minus the usual tribal chiefs - ready to move forward?

What is holding Kenyans back? Are they afraid to take a chance in the course of the coming general elections? Or have we now become a nation that suffers from "the Jonah complex"?

As a matter of fact, people don't change when they feel good about themselves, their careers, financial situations, family life and country.

They change when they're fed up. When things are going all right, we all tend to do pretty much what we've been doing.

Pain is the only force or element from within that pushes us to those crucial turning points.

When hurt becomes a constant in our lives, only then do we finally choose to either carry on sustaining the hurt or get rid of it all together.

It's that adverb, finally. Enough is ehough that moves people to take drastic measures and change the course of events for the better, and to the point of taking charge of their destiny.

Have we, the people, become that crazy to the point of doing the same thing(s) over and over and expecting different results in 2013 and beyond?

If time is our side, them it will tell whether we're still crazy as a nation, or whether the days of voting according to instructions from the (evil) tribal chief are over.

Anonymous said...

G7 remains potent as long as UK is at the top. We all know that our brothers from Central can not vote for anyone else but their own. All other communities in KY have at least on one occasion voted for another than their own in an election. For example in 02 Nyanza voted for Kibaki overwhelmingly even though Orengo & Nyachae were standing. If UK were anything else but the flag bearer (running mate/Nai Govonor/ Majority leader/Hague resident) Central & their Diaspora will AUTOMATICALLY ( by instinct) vote for another of their own, read Karua, Peter Kenneth, Paul Muite, hell Matiba!!?!
To think that UK &/or Kibaki can say Ruto/Wamalwa/Kalonzo/Makwere/Jirongo/Sonko/Duale/Tuju/Magara tosha & go around the country campaigning is living in a fantasy. It would be far easier but still daunting to have UK be the flag bearer & Ruto is running mate. What I'm not sure is if all Kales & their cousins will tag along 100% keeping in mind that four years ago they hacked each other to death in the RV. Maybe the scars have long healed & the land issues can be easily erased.

Anonymous said...

Let the G7 settle on a more suitable 'compromise candidate' that has less political baggage unlike Kepepeo Kigeugeu Kaloozer wa Njia ya Katiti.

Otherwise, a G7 compromised candidate like Kaloozer will not be a formidable contender as expected, because he's become one big joke in many living rooms, streets, open-air-market, villages and towns around the country.

There is time and a good chance for the G7 to pick a far better and suitable candidate than the one being proposed by some people from the old tribal generations.

Mwarang'ethe said...

"I have talked to numerous Kenyans in the so-called voting blocks most of whom are very sure that the days of voting according to instructions from the tribal chief are over."

xxxxxxxxxxx

" ... there will be a major problem ... Assuming that that candidate is William Ruto, you can be sure that the Kikuyu vote will vanish. Assuming that it is Uhuru Kenyatta, the Kalenjin vote will also evaporate into thin air whether Ruto remains in the G7 or not."

XXXXXXX

mmmmmmmm, does anyone see any BLATANT CONTRADICTIONS here?

xxxx

"The ideal solution would be to choose a compromise candidate. Somebody like Kalonzo Musyoka."

xxx

What THE HELL is a compromise candidate? Chosen by who? By the G7 TRIBAL LEADERS?

xxx

@ 9.17

"As a matter of fact, people don't change when they feel good about themselves, their careers, financial situations, family life and country."

xxx

Very true.

This being the case, those at the TOP of the HUMAN LIFE & HUMAN PRODUCT food chain, do not have financial pressures. As such, they see no need to change.

NB: Their hatred for change is not out of evilness as many think.

At the same time, those who feel the FINANCIAL PRESSURES, i.e. so called middle class and the poor, are TOO IGNORANT to appreciate what must be done to reform the system.

In TRUTH then, BOTH the:

(a) Upper class, and

(b) The MIDDLE CLASS (including the bloggers) and POOR, ARE ALL enemies of true reforms.

You doubt this?

Sample this:

When the UPPER CLASS (Raila's, Kibaki, Ruto, UK's and the MIDDLE CLASS & the POOR were talking of a new era under their NEW CONSTITUTION, those who interested in TRUE reforms, were declared ENEMIES of both classes.

As an example, the African Teacher, warned here at KK that:

"When these two conspirators are not "loaning" Wanjiku their useless paper so as to rob her, the CENTRAL BANKER [TYRANT] issues another paper he calls a government bond.

The conspirator calling himself EQUITY takes this bond and in return, he gives back the useless paper he originally got from the central banker.

In this modern magic, these modern medicine men tell us, the mere mortars, that, this is open market operation. By this abracadabra, they create so called public domestic debt which must be paid with usury. So as to pay back the banker, Wanjiku’s little wealth that was spared by the first ngeta/robbery, must be robbed via taxation.

TO DARE BELIEVE that, a document which enshrines such DEVILISH principles of socialism and fascism will emancipate Wanjiku, is the most dangerous DELUSION we know of."

Source: "Why We Reject the Proposed New Constitution." @
http://is.gd/2HUcdv

As usual, many thought that article was TOO LONG and DIFFICULT to understand. Ati, was not SEXY!

Some, in their DELUSIONS, thought we are OBSESSED with money.

Well, we are DOUBLE sure that, EVERY Kenyan now appreciate that, the MONEY LOOTED from them SHALL be used to FINANCE the COMPROMISE CANDIDATE which Chris and other Kenyans are CRYING for in the forthcoming OPIUM SESSION:

Just watch this USELESS MONKEY NOISE from so called Parliament:

"Report calls for resignation of CBK governor."

http://is.gd/gYmIjI

Anyway, we leave to enjoy:

I tried to make them understand:

http://is.gd/d5VTzj

Anonymous said...

I prefer the old format of Kumekucha. How do you even read comments here?

Anonymous said...

... an opportunity for the progressive fifty something to take this thing but only if they unite?

Says who? And what about the progressive league of non 'tribal' and non aligned moderates in their 30s and 40s?

Without ignoring or forgetting another very potent socio political force that comprises of Kenyans in their early-mid-late 20s?

On another note, one of the many closeted problems with the so-called fifty-something progressives is that the majority of them - literate or illiterate - are not any different from their older political siblings who happen to be in their early-mid-late 60s.

Due to the fcat that, their known political school of thought and ethnic modus operandi has always mirrored and echoed a world view that dates back to an era when one political party rule was gospel aand sacrosanct.

And a certain old man whose is no longer worth mentioning whatsoever, was the village king during a time period when the oppressed, confused, marginalized and alienated masses found refuge in tribal numbers and regional hurdles.

All carried out in the name of self-preservation but for all the wrong reasons that never contributed nor impacted their political, social, economic and personal lives in any way, shape or form as the majority of Kenyans would have loved it to be under the East African skies.

By the way, forget the likes of Peter Kenneth, and worse, Paul Muite of all people, but when all is said and done, let the majority give it Martha Karua, or to the next best alternative candidate with a broader national appeal and a proven track record.

So far, Martha Karua seems to be one of a kind among the field of presidential contenders, and the only one, who happens to have the nation's best interests at heart for all the right reasons.

All things taken into account, the majority of the Kenyan people have always wanted to change since 1992, 2002 and 2007, but they really don't how to go about it.

So, the 2012 general elections may just be the bitter cold medicine they need to cure themselves of ever hiding in ethnic enclaves, chauvinist cocoons, warped political camps, elitist affiliations, old ways of doing things in the same wrong ways, and diasporic comfort zone again.

Let 2012-2013 be a time period for Kenyans from all walks of life to find the courage to take political risks, and boldness to change their collective destiny for the better.

Anonymous said...

Lest we forget, out with the old wine skins (mitungi) before new wine can be put in knew wine skins.

Must we always be reminded by people like John Dryden of the fact that we first make our habits, and then our habits make us by the time 2016 or 2017 comes knocking again?

Anonymous said...

Select a better font and format this particular one makes reading extremely difficult
_____________________________________

You forget that the Raila was the chief architect of the madoadoa campaign and the chief beneficiary of the same However kyuks have never forgotten and they would rather vote for a dog then vote for Raila any compromise candidate will do including the weasel kalonzo...you can take that to the bank

Anonymous said...

ATTENTION: Chris of Kumekucha.
Revert to the previous formart or upgrade it to a new and better formart. The current one has become a constant repellent and a real irritant in the toes of many who dare venture into Kumekucha for a while. The ball is in your court!

Anonymous said...

Isn't interesting that the only time an individual or group of people can agree on voting for a ngite just because they hate all that their political opponent represents, is when there is a flourishing a democracy and all people have the democratic right to vote for a candidate of their choice? Can't wait for the day when all sorts of ngite will become legislators and trustees of our respective communities.

Anonymous said...

Chris,
The comment box (section) is swallowing drafts before one can hit or click on 'publish your comment'. What's going on? Is it infected or hijacked by some alien ware?

Anonymous said...

Why settle for somebody like Kalonzo Musyoka, or rather compromise the nation's future as well as the destiny of the majority of the electorate by picking a "watermelon" for a presidential candidate?
Why not go for a muskmelon or a rockmelon instead limiting our options on kalo(nzo)melon?

Anonymous said...

Kalonzo Musyoka and Wamalwa Kijana are going no where in 2012, and they will also end up no where in 2017. Don't forget to hand them a wheelbarrow and a thank you note for trying to achieve the impropable.

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