Is Raila’s Life Really in Danger From Terrorists?

Politics is a dirty game, they say. The main reason why they say this is that many times the end justifies the means when it comes to decision making in politics. Meaning that a politician will do anything to win an election and the same for their survival. And when I say "anything" I mean anything in the full sense of the word.

The local media made a curious report yesterday which appears in today’s dailies. We are told that the police are on a high alert over a terror attack threat on Prime minister Raila Odinga. We are told that terrorist kingpins are upset over Kenya’s continued support to America in their fight against terror. We are even told the exact nature of the planned attack (something unheard of when it comes to terror attacks). It is said that the evil plotters plan to bring down a helicopter that the PM will be traveling in.

Of course it is possible that terrorists have suddenly gotten extremely rusty and have allowed information on their exact plans to filter out (when we know even the people carrying out the terror missions never have the full details until the last possible minute). But it is also possible that this whole thing is a hoax designed to achieve certain political objectives.

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All my warning bells went off when I read this report and further inquiries amongst those who understand this business concurred with me. Terrorist are first and foremost politicians and the current situation in world politics with a brand new administration in Washington is NOT conducive to a terror attack anywhere in the world just now. To make matters worse the man sitting inside the White house now has a Muslim name “Hussein” and is much admired amongst a vast majority of the people whom terrorists will always seek sympathy from for their heinous actions.

Then to target Kenya just now would not make any sense at all. Further it is imperative to note that one of the reasons why the Americans got very nervous about a Raila Odinga presidency stemmed from the fact that his presidential bid received enormous support from a number of Arab countries. This makes it very difficult for me to believe that terrorists would want to target the PM of all people, even if they wanted to carry out an attack on Kenyan soil.

So what would the possible motive of this curious report be?

Every politician knows that public sympathy is an extremely powerful weapon. It wins elections and can magically turn the tide of public opinion. There are many examples where politicians the world over have used sympathy to win public support but let me give an amazing example from a neighbouring country.

When president Jakaya Kikwete was running for the presidency in 2005 on a CCM ticket, a curious incident happen during a public meeting in Dar-es-salaam. It was clear even at that point that Kikwete was going to win. But his handlers probably wanted to leave nothing to chance. So the presidential candidate was invited to speak and he just said a few words and then fell and passed out in full view of TV cameras and the mammoth crowd. Later he held a press conference to say he was okay and was probably just a little tired. He also added that he had been fasting. I was in Tanzania at the time and I can tell you the mood of the country changed dramatically after this drama and in the end rather than winning my a simple majority, Kikwete won the presidential vote with a staggering over 90% of the vote.

We know that politically Raila Odinga is struggling at the moment. Indeed he has entered the political struggle of his life. Some analysts even say that he is finished politically.

If we take these facts and put them next to the alleged terror scare on his life, things begin to make a little sense.

Because after all, any serious security person will tell you that it is a big mistake to reveal the fact that you are aware of an attack on a person you are protecting. The best policy would be to pretend that you have no idea. That way you will be more prepared. In the Kenyan situation we are even telling the terrorists that the PM will now be using military helicopters which are harder to target. Wow!!!!

Why Kibaki And Raila Must Go

What is ODM? What is PNU? What do those strange abbreviations mean?

There was a time in the 10th parliament when things were pretty predictable. If ODM voted in a certain direction, you would be sure that PNU would vote in the opposite direction. So if the two principals wanted something done they rallied their troops and then came to parliament and everybody would obediently rubber stamp what they wanted done. That is how the crucial Anan bills were passed in record time.

Now all that is ancient history. The only place where people are still divided along those old party lines is here in Kumekucha. Go out and talk to the Kenyan people on the ground and you will quickly discover that "ODM" and "PNU" are very very dirty words these days.

Yesterday the 10th parliament embrassed the two principals by defeating a constitutional amendment bill in their faces, whose intention was to establish a local tribunal to try post-election violence suspects. Some MPs have been heard saying that Raila and Kibaki should prepare themselves for more nasty surprises and embarassments. This was only kionjo.

I hardly ever agree with what Mutula Kilonzo says. However what he said yesterday I agree with 1000%. He said that Kibaki and Raila should now resign because their troops have lost all confidence in them. Mutula was being kind because what we saw in parliament was a clear message from the people of Kenya. They are tired of impunity and they want justice. They want big names behind bars for their crimes and they do not not trust the local justice system. And most of all they are tired of the grand coalition government.

I would go further and say that a government as divided as the grand coalition government is at the moment is a serious threat to our national security. Do you have any idea how dangerous it is for us to approach the threats against our country with a divided multi-agenda-laden cabinet? What kind of things to these guys get involved in individually in private to further their own selfish motives?

If Kibaki and Raila really loved mama Kenya, they would heed Mutula's call and resign right away, paving way for us to look for a way to hold general elections ASAP.

Fresh elections are the only way we can avert disaster which hangs like a dark and persistent cloud over our country.

Let me end by saying that the way the politics in Kenya is shaping up, anything can happen and the 10th parlaiment looks like the parliament most likely to move a successful vote of no confidence in this government and thus send themselves back to the electorate for a fresh mandate. Naturally any MP who appends their name on such a motion would guarantee their place in the 11th parliament.

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Lest you take comments in Kumekucha too seriously;

What I said 2 weeks ago;

Excerpts;

It is sad reading through the comments in this blog daily where well-educated Kenyans are still thinking in terms of PNU and ODM (and the gods they worship, namely Kibaki and Raila) when the vast majority of Kenyans have already moved on. More so when it looks like even most legislators have moved away from those tribal groupings as was seen yesterday in parliament...

Of great interest are the new political re-alignments that are now emerging and more interestingly the motivation behind them...

Many other legislators who had nothing to do with the post-election troubles have a lot to gain by blocking the bill and causing all the suspects to end up at the Hague. It will obviously eliminate a lot of the competition for their grand ambitions.

I doubt whether most of the political class conecerned slept well last night. You see the game plan was to have a local tribunal and then intimidate all the witnesses from coming to give evidence (already a number of key Waki witnesses have received death threats). Now it seems that the Hague beckons for sure...

What a Kumekucha commentator said about the post;

Anonymous said...

Chris, Please come back from fairy land. The bill will be passed and there will be a local tribunal.

Read the full post Here

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