Thursday, January 18, 2007

If Kalonzo Leaves ODM-Kenya, What Are The Options For Charity Ngilu?

Prior to the 2002 elections, a popularity contest between Charity Kaluki Ngilu and Kalonzo Musyoka was unimaginable as it was obvious that the iron lady of Ukambani politics was miles ahead not to mention she had contested the presidency in 1997 and made history by being the first woman in the country to do so. She finished a respectable fourth, ahead of the late Kijana Wamalwa but trailing winner Moi, Kibaki and Raila in that order.

Plenty of water has flowed under the bridge since then and Kalonzo Musyoka has managed to bridge the gap after he quit Kanu and joined NARC ahead of the 2002 elections.

Now that he is going for the presidency, Kalonzo could be more popular as a result of his campaigns round the country but he has numerous shortcomings, which are proving fatal to his popularity.

Unlike Ngilu, Kalonzo does not assist his supporters uplift their living standards especially the unemployed ones by getting them jobs and he prefers to have them following him around and survive on the meager hand outs that he dishes out to them.

Ngilu is known to have secured jobs for hundreds of her supporters and their relatives in the short period that she has been in government and in Ukambani it would not be surprised if it emerged that she is more popular than Kalonzo in some constituencies. Ngilu's efforts to assist her kinsmen may not be in national interests and one needs just to take a look at appointments in the ministry of health since 2003. They read like a roll call at the popular Machakos Sports Club.

Kalonzo is also known to be aloof and arrogant and cannot mingle comfortably with the down-and-out and poor unlike Ngilu who is a darling to the poor and is known to spend lots of time listening to their problems and making every effort to solve them. On the positive side, this motherly instincts have been responsible for the tremendous job that has been done at the Ministry of Health over a very short span of time.

In fact if Ngilu can play her cards well in the forthcoming elections, she can be very instrumental in checking the influence of Kalonzo in Ukambani and even force a significant split in votes to deny him a block vote from his home area.

In spite of her limited education compared to Musyoka, Ngilu has the charisma to captivate a crowd better than Kalonzo and she is also miles ahead in platform politics compared to the soft spoken former foreign affairs minister who has little time nor patience for 'small people'.

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Why Has The Standard Group Softened It's Critical Stand On The Government?

Not many people are aware of the fact that former president Moi and his immediate family are majority shareholder of the Standard group of companies which includes the premiere TV channel, KTN as well as the daily newspaper. And now that th fomer head of state is working with president Kibaki, the media house seems to have softened its stand against the government.

Since 2003, the standard newspaper has been so critical of the government that in an unprecedented move last year, the NARC regime's agents raided the newspaper offices and not only burnt copies of the newspaper but also destroyed and took away expensive equipment in a bid to cripple its' operations.

Of late, the publication and its broadcasting division has softened its stand and the juicy stories about the first family have been fewer and further between as Moi and Kibaki are in good talking terms with the former even offering advice to the latter's administration which seems to be moving from one crisis to another.

Initially, it was the Nation newspapers which had chosen to be pro government since NARC took over as the chief executive of the publication then, Wilfred Kiboro was and is a bosom and golf playing friend of Kibaki not to mention the fact that they are both from the house of Mumbi.

The Nation's policy seems to have remained the same even after Kiboro was recently replaced by one Linus Gitahi, also a Kikuyu who has overseen a change in the papers physical outlook but the editorial policy has remained the same.

Back at Standard, the paper has recently been injecting fresh blood, mainly in the form of new editors and not surprisingly has been hiring more people from Moi's Kalenjin community and promoting those already there like one Kipkoech Tanui who is said to be an editor with more powers than his colleagues. He is considered to be the eyes and ears of the majority shareholder.

The Standard was previously owned by Lonrho who disposed it after its decision to do away with non-hospitality subsidiaries of the giant conglomerate to concentrate in the hotel business as their core activity.

After major restructuring including changing its editorial policy and making it more brazen towards the government of the day, the flagging paper managed to increase its circulation and slash operational costs hence churning out profits for the third year in succession, recently. In previous years the Standard had been see-sawing between low profits and small losses.

The former president's shares in Standard are being looked after by his son, Gideon who was notorious for dubious deals when his father was in power but has since slowed down and is more involved in legitimate business transactions not to mention the fact that he is now paying his taxes, something he was not used to when 'daddy' was in power.

It now remains to be seen whether the Standard will manage to sustain its circulation figures after softening its editorial policy to the detriment of its readers who are hungry for juicy stories on a government that has proved to be fairly incompetent. The public seems to especially favor stories touching on the first family and high level corruption.

But even more worrying is the fact that as we head to the general elections, the second largest circulating newspaper in the country may not be impartial and will tend to favor the incumbent in their partnership with Moi's Kanu.

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Prof Philip Mbithi And His Strange Predictions: Are They Coming To Pass?

In an interview with this writer a couple of years ago, the former head of the public service turned self proclaimed prophet, Prof Philip Mbithi said Kenya would discover large deposits of crude oil in the near future along with other minerals.

As of today, oil exploration has been intensified along the Kenyan coast and in north eastern province and word is out that traces of the black gold have been found but what remains is to verify its quantity and establish whether it is commercially viable for exploitation.

The energy ministry is upbeat and Kenyans are optimistic that vast deposits will be discovered, which will put to an end the escalating local fuel prices and propel the country to higher economic status let alone ending the perennial problem of abject poverty among the majority of the population.

Prof Mbithi also told this writer that the production will be undertaken by a God fearing government where the head of state will be a deeply religious person along with his cabinet hence putting off the probability of it being exploited during this Kibaki era.

However, oil exploration is not new in Kenya as various foreign companies have over the years been involved in the search for fossil fuel with fruitless results but this time round there seems to be a lot of optimism among the stakeholders.

But again striking vast deposits of crude oil does not mean an end to our energy crisis as Nigeria, which is an oil exporting country has proved. Nigeria which is more corrupt than Kenya in certain respects, still experiences fuel shortages from time to time as a result of poor management and high level graft.

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