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Friday, March 08, 2013

Uhuru Kenyatta wins presidency... BUT


Uhuru Kenyatta is set to become the fourth president of Kenya in an election that smirked of too many similarities to the bungled 2007 presidential elections. But if you are a Jubilee coalition supporter hold off your order for that cold Tusker and don’t even think of putting those goat ribs over a charcoal fire just yet because there are too many uncertainties that still linger in the air.

In a previous post I had already pointed out many of the question marks that have to be scribbled at the end of most paragraphs recording the major events of the last five days. Yep it was only five short days but why is it that to many Kenyans it seemed like an eternity?

When those who like to analyze how presidential campaigns are won sit down to figure out how the son of Jomo did it, one name will have to feature prominently. That of William Ruto, his running mate (pictured above, on your right, with Uhuru) and now deputy president-elect. Those who know this man who barely 20 years ago used to hang out at “jobless corner” (a hangout for hungry frustrated job seekers that is opposite the Hilton hotel in Nairobi) will tell you that he is a crafty political player who is not even trusted by the supporters of the president elect. How he even successfully put together the two main warring tribes in the 2007 elections together still baffles many. This blogger predicted many times that the alliance would not hold and that he would never deliver Kalenjin votes with the wounds of the last elections still unhealed. But not only has it held together but it has managed to win Uhuru a mind boggling share of the massive Rift Valley vote against all expectations.

It would have been nice to have had a non-controversial credible election to see how this contest would have really turned out. As it is we will never know because whatever happens next the circumstances have changed drastically and forever.

One of the most fascinating aspects to come out of this election is the reaction of many people in Nyanza to the results. Many are blaming Raila for not having a clear strategy in his entire campaign and repeated references are being made to the CORD nominations which went badly wrong in Nyanza with what most people saw as a deliberate attempt to try and force candidates on them.

However observant political analysts will sympathize with Raila who has been on almost permanent campaign mode since 2002 and probably earlier. Fatigue and exhaustion were clearly visible in him during the campaigns and there is no doubt that this greatly affected his bid this time round. In many public meetings his voice sounded hoarse and tired and he even babbled at times and fell asleep in clear sight of the cameras at one church function. This was in sharp contrast to Uhuru who appeared much more energetic, sharper and eloquent in his delivery.

The big question now is what happens next. Regular readers of my raw notes will know that several times in the past 4 month or so I gave the unfolding scenario as the most likely outcome of these elections. Just like I did for the 2007 general elections. I am currently focusing on plenty of interesting developments (some alarming) that could emerge out of the current mess we find ourselves in as a country and you can read them all HERE. My heart goes out to all those ordinary Kenyans whose lives have already been badly affected by these elections because business has been down with all the tension. Some of them rely on their daily earnings to put food on the table and have therefore gone hungry in recent days. I hate to imagine what will happen to them in the days to come as the situation in Kenya becomes even more tense with court cases and allegations of rigging.

Do remember to say a prayer for the motherland.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chris,

You are right, a lot of unanswered questions.What happens next, indeed!

Sasa, tell me if these guys are tried and found guilty by the Hague, who will run our country?

Anonymous said...

Who would have thought that one day our President would also be wanted at the Hague. These are changing times.

Anonymous said...

Poor Chris, your opinion poll president was outwitted fare & square. Being beaten with over 900k voters is to say the least a landslide win. Mutahi saw this outcome ages ago. As he aptly captured it, 2002 was a protest vote on Moi, 2007 was a protest vote on Kibaki and 2013 was a protest vote on Raila. Raila can blame his loss on his use & dump stratergy as evident on how he mistreated Ruto. His other undoing was his over-reliance of sycophants rather than consulting professionals, his assumption that paying opinion pollsters to cook his popularity ratings would translate to votes and his obsession with presidency. Just like his late father, Raila is finished goods and his chances of ever ascending to the house on the hill are akin to a camel going through an eye of the needle. Pensioners like Chris, Phil, Luke and Taabu should accept this obvious destiny. The opinion poll president was just that.

Jane

Anonymous said...

Is it true that Phil of Kibera/Jukwaa has been put on suicide watch??

Anonymous said...

I am not happy there is no MASS ACTION.

Anonymous said...

Raila might win the court case, but badly lose in the subsequent election. Since he will be suing the IEBC, the judges can not give him the presidency. He must go for another election. How will he expect the same IEBC that he has sued for inefficiency to do a better job within 60 days? The new election may be even more poorly managed by IEBC because it will not get enough funds in time, the electronics that went dead may not be repaired in time and those he claims shut the gadgets can still do it again. He was behind Uhuru by over 800,000 votes. If the court rules another election, the smaller candidates, akina Dida and Mudavadi, may not want to vie again. It will be him and Uhuru. Many people who voted for him will not see the need of voting again because they know the 800k gap cannot be bridged, even if he is given all the other non-Jubilee votes on a silver platter. People are fatigued and voter turn out will be low-and he stands to suffer more from this than Jubilee. His former sponsors and supporters may not be ready to do so again. Many of his supporters who vied for various elective posts and lost will not see the need of spending an extra penny campaigning for him. Those who have been elected will not see the need to spend any more money campaigning for him. He will not effectively monitor all the polling stations and this can give the opponents opportunity to cook figures. The best thing.....concede defeat and avoid an embarassing exit. I for one voted for him, but I am resigned to the fact that we must move on. I stood on a line for 8 hours to vote and I have wasted a whole week doing nothing. I am not ready to repeat this cycle again. I will NOT vote for him. And we are many. This is not to mean, by the way, that what he is fighting for is not good. It's just that I AM TIRED AND I MUST MOVE ON. Just like he agreed to work with nusu mkate, I have also agreed to move on with the way things have turned out.

Stressed and Distressed

Anonymous said...

RAO should learn to let go; that would be the best gift he can give the country, including its future generation of leaders. There is no value in fighting every war in life, all the time! It is better to leave certain things for history!

Anonymous said...

How many buckets or debe overflowing with githeri, muthokoi, nyoyo, mukimo, ugali, or wali did the @10:12 AM's housholds and neighbourhoods receive after 2007 general elections, and the disastrous mass actions that ensued?

And why waste valuble energy and time on a pointless cause of action, when the best alternative would be to make sure that the next cause of action translates into a constructive mass action where those who feel disenfranchised with the current outcome end up registering early and later turnout in very large numbers during the next general elections?

Screaming yourselves horse in most of the urban areas around the country will not change the IEBC's final verdict, nor general outcome.

Let the courts take care of any type of appeals that may be presented to it with sufficient body of evidence.

By the way, have you ever found yourself on the receiving end of a deliberate and unprovoked mob attack generated by mass action near you?

Never ever wish it any living soul!

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