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Friday, January 11, 2013

Is this what Uhuru and Ruto are really up to?

Guest post by Joe (You can visit Joe's blog to see other articles)
I am not one who sees into the future and neither do I profess to be a soothsayer, a tea leaves reader, a clairvoyant or a Mayan! I do not know how to read palms, or shells, or the dregs of your coffee and neither do I commune with witches, wizards or anything ‘shetani’. In other words I am not a political commentator or an armchair politico, whatever that means. I use my mirror on the wall into the world.

My mirror on the wall tells me that politicians are a very clever though devious lot. They are very good at manipulating the status quo so that they come out as projecting a larger than life persona, a mythical god like image that they can then use to bargain at the table of power. My mirror tells me that Uhuru & Ruto and their Jubilee alliance are just such clever politicians, who have managed to imbue in their followers this god like status and larger than life persona. They have a fanatical almost suicidal following among their tribesmen and that they command great political power is not in doubt. The Kikuyu will almost certainly to the last man vote for Uhuru while Ruto promises to bring a mountain of votes to the ballot paper for Uhuru through his Kalenjin community.

Now these two fellows are very clever and therefore they are not foolish. They know that with the ICC cases hanging over their heads like the guillotine of old, Kenya will be in extremely dire circumstances should they be elected as president and deputy president respectively. They are astute businessmen in their own rights who own either directly or through numerous proxies some of the most profitable businesses across Kenya as well as tracts of land the size of small countries. They are in businesses which rely on the international perception of Kenya including tourism, banking, insurance, real estate, insurance, dairy farming, minerals etc  and it would be foolish for them to jeopardize these businesses once elected to the highest offices in the land. Their businesses must also have also lost massively after the last fracas in 2007.

My submission therefore is that they have everything to lose if they are elected and that they are now merely running a campaign not to be elected but to entrench their positions amongst their communities so as to obtain respectable representation in parliament, the senate and other leadership positions for their rank and file so that while they may not be in government, they have the numbers to insist on their pre-election coalitions being honored to some extent even with another as president. Without these two at the apex of the Jubilee alliance, many senatorial, gubernatorial, parliamentary and other political candidates will not see the doors of the offices they aspire to occupy and that is why Uhuru & Ruto have been held hostage by these political wannabes who know that without their masters, they will get nowhere. Uhuru & Ruto badly need to be on the ballot paper as they have all along insisted but this will be merely to pander to the egos of their respective communities who want to hear nothing else other than their ‘man’ being on the presidential ballot paper.

They are therefore campaigning to lose as can be seen from the many shenanigans being played around surrounding some senior government officials, the devil and the other alliances, which are all calculated to ensure that however you look at the numbers the CORD Alliance will most likely win the next general elections, with Raila Odinga, warts and all, as the next president of Kenya and at the first ballot.

If you observe keenly, Raila has been playing a very conciliatory game including promising to fight to have the ICC trails brought to Kenya for the sake of Uhuru & Ruto and imploring Mudavadi to rejoin ODM (and CORD by extension) because this is part of the lose-lose strategy of Uhuru & Ruto’s joint presidential bid so that they get a soft landing under Raila Odinga’s presidency (assuming he sticks to his promises) as well as almost guaranteeing Mudavadi whose penchant for getting himself check mated while all along he was holding a commanding edge over his opponents is legendary, a good position in his administration.  After all you would rather have a reluctant homeboy on your side and rooting for you and not on the other side barking and letting all and sundry know your dirty little secrets!! If by some miracle Raila was to succeed in bringing the ICC cases to Kenya, then Uhuru and Ruto will be suitably chastised and avoid making a nuisance of themselves in front of the benevolent Raila.

 Uhuru & Ruto are now firmly in the barrel already in the river and moving with the high current at breakneck speed towards the elections waterfall and not knowing how to get off without hurting themselves. They have built the barrel and they must now ride it to its inevitable conclusion. Unfortunately, they will never accept that they are not in in for the long haul, because they know that the country will be ungovernable under their rule as well as the fact that Kenya will lose all forward momentum and economic growth and go the way of North Korea forever shunned and vilified by the international community and struggling to meet the basic need of its people.........and their businesses will all but collapse leaving hundreds jobless and destitute and the ensuing multiplier effect leading to complete economic collapse of the economy.

As I said before I do not see into the future but rely on my mirror into the world, but if I was a pragmatic man in the shoes of the duo, Uhuru & Ruto, I would do what is best for my country but still be seen to be putting up a semblance of a fight so that my supporters remain convinced that I am in it for the long run and that I still retain my status as king maker but I would 'throw' the election.
Whether guilty or innocent after my trail with the ICC my stature as a nationalist would be on the upswing giving me a better chance at the highest office in the land once free of the shackles of the Hague.

My mirror has spoken!!

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15 comments:

Anonymous said...

So Team UhuRuto are spending billions on their campaign in order to lose? Kweli dunia in mambo...

Anonymous said...

Almost the same thing I have been thinking except I feel that Uhuruto are planning to lose to MM and not Raila. I don't have any idea how they will manage to do that if at all. Just a feeling I have.

Anonymous said...

This makes too much sense, has to be close to the truth.

Great thinking and great post Joe guest poster, you should post more often.

Taabu said...

Spending enormously to LOOSE is akin to revising all night to fail an exam. Tafakari.

Anonymous said...

I don't buy this crap, especially that part eti raila will be the cases back to kenya. Wasn't he the one who criticized kalonzo's shuttle diplomacy? Enough said.

Anonymous said...

the most intelligent post i have read in a long time.it counters conventional wisdom and conventional thinking cant decipher it

Kolo said...

100% correct.even in economics theres 'creative destruction'.presidency is a poisoned chalice for them now.the only other way to run the ctry is 2 av a strong opposition

Anonymous said...

Joeli, hii mameno ya propaganda no longer works, just ask Chris. Who on earth would waste an obscene sums of money and time on campaign trails if the end game is not to reside at the most prestigious address in Kenya?

Anonymous said...

This is hilarious.
Where does Chris get these ridiculous bloggers. Eti spend billions to lose an election. Like Taabu put it, how do you spend sleepless nights studying eti to lose an exam. Crapy craps!! But then what do you expect from the FORA dimwits? We are turning off analogue politicians & their watermellon friends come 2013!!

Sereast

Anonymous said...

Joe clearly illustrates whats wrong with the 8:4:4 system. These fellows have zero/nada analytical skills and common sense seems not to be too common. Just check the choir girls cheering this folly.

Mwarang'ethe said...

"Joe clearly illustrates whats wrong with the 8:4:4 system. These fellows have zero/nada analytical skills and common sense seems not to be too common. Just check the choir girls cheering this folly."

xxx

It is the IVY LEAGUE SCHOOLS which the 8 - 4 - 4 is just a small PART of!

Ati running to lose? What rubbish is this now!

With that, we leave to enjoy:

Some people want to DEMOLISH MT. Kenya using a TRACTOR:

http://is.gd/xNKask




Anonymous said...

I have privileged info proving Joe's thesis 100%.

Let those who speak (or write comments) too fast without thinking continue to do so.

Anonymous said...

...clearly illustrates whats wrong with the 8:4:4 sytem.

OMG!!! Bravo! Bravo! Bravo!!! For stating the obvious.

How true it is that the proof of the the banana, mango, pineapple, papaw ("papaya") and watermelon pudding is in the eating several decades later.

Seems as if the fruits of the 8-4-4 system did not fall far from the 7:4:2:3.01 feet Mugumo(/Mukumu/Mugiza/Mulaku/Mubunda) tree that was planted during the early 1940s by the generous and visionary founders of the British East Africa Settlement.

By the way, why not help out the 8:4:4 fruits pick up the much needed bugs of tricks loaded with analytical skills and sparse common sense from the remedial department?

Talking of the bugs of analytical skills and common sense tricks that were left behind by their highly industrous predecessors.

Anonymous said...

Mokobwa, it would have been wise of you to rebuttal Joe, punch by punch rather than allude to the fact that s/he lacks the desired analytical skills and common sense that was the valued currency in the defunct 7:4:2:3 system.

Just for the record, who were the majority of greedy MPigs in the last parliament, and the corrupt kanyuru in the current civil service?

Let the bean counting begin, and put the culprits in their rightful cages as in 7:4:2:3 failed system and the 8:4:4 failed system, and the numbers will speak volumes of shames.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:56 pm said...I have privileged info proving Joe's thesis 100%...

And I have a trillion dollars in my bank account and this is 100% true just coz I said so..duh!!

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