Happy Monday

You folks should stop making me laugh. If Ruto and UK were to form an alliance for the next general elections, it would mean that Ruto will actually have to pretend to run for the presidency….if only to remove the benefit of the Kalenjin vote from the ODM axis. The two, Ruto and UK, will never be on the same ticket….too much blood and animosity after the PEV. The leaders may forge unity but the masses will not…..especially if they are still in IDP camps. In fact, the plan is and will always be to have Kalonzo run as president and Uhuru as PM. Ruto will be awarded VP and it will be touted as a peaceful attempt to bring Kenyans together. Everybody in Kenyan knows that UK, after Kibaki, cannot entertain dreams of a presidency via the next general election. The anti-kikuyu sentiments still exist and will definitely become more prominent as the elections near. That’s the sad reality of our tribal politics. It follows therefore that Ruto must be convinced to either run himself or back somebody outside of the Raila/ODM axis. That is the only way Kalonzo stands a chance.

Now, the way things are going, it is seemingly unclear whether Raila will run. We must however not forget that this man is a genius in euphoric politics. He has two choices if he expects to run successfully. One is to make sure Ruto does not wonder too far from ODM. The other is to burst Ruto’s bubble and propagate an alternative Kalenjin chief. The fact is that Raila goes nowhere without the Kalenjin vote and he knows it. He’s safe in the other regions. All he has to do is get into the campaign mode. Some are already saying he’s getting into that mode albeit very cautiously. He has already started distancing himself from Kibaki and the coalition government.

You see, even today, when people complain that the coalition is failing, they are really talking about Kibaki. The constant mention and blame of the ‘two principals’ is loosing flavor. It is essentially just diplomatic speech. The real animosity is still towards Kibaki, a man many perceive as having brought us to this failed state. His defunct leadership is clear to all Kenyans, be they Kikuyu, Luo or Taita. It will be very easy for Raila to de-link himself from Kibaki and indeed the failures of the coalition. That is why it does not help UK and Kalonzo when folk like Michuki go around proclaiming that Kibaki is the paramount chief…even if he really is.

Between now and the next election, Raila must persist in highlighting his difficulties within the coalition in regards to failed expectations. Kenyans are bright but not that bright. Already you’ve seen newspaper articles blaming the diminishing of Raila’s star to the ‘unfair’ arrangement of the coalition. Some have gone as far as calling him a toothless bulldog. What they are in fact saying is that Raila holds the interest of the masses in his heart but is being frustrated by Muthaura and others in PNU. This is a freebie for ODM and they will never let you forget it. They will continue complaining about the unfair balance of power while knowing too well that PNU will never budge. The idea is not and will never be getting more positions. Rather, it is to keep that ‘unfairness factor’ in the public domain for as long as humanly possible. People like to vote for those they ‘agree’ with especially if they think they are being treated unfairly.

For those of you wondering why it has taken over a year for ODM to start the talk of unfairness, well, the 2007 campaign bills must be paid and there’s only one way to do so in Kenya. This applies to both PNU and ODM. Believe me folks; none of these fellows are queuing at Equity Bank for loans to pay for 2007 campaign posters and billboards.

So there you have it. Of course these prophecies are bound to change should one of the sitting ducks be taken out of commission before reaching the pond.