But are they really justified?
Insider sources inform this blogger that when the possibility of an Obama win was first brought up within the Kibaki kitchen cabinet months ago, it was dismissed outright. Somebody confidently predicted that Sanetor Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic party nomination to run for the presidency and that she would do it easily. Most of the old school members of this inner circle have visited the United States many times and some have even lived there and so they were pretty confident with their predictions. The general feeling was that there was no way the racially charged Americans could elect Barack Obama.
Well now there are serious jitters within this inner circle even as they remain completely puzzled and dumbfounded as to what the hell is going on. How can that son of a “Jaruo” rise to be president of the most powerful nation in the world? HOW???
In fact if I could talk to them I would tell them something else to completely bawl them over. My insider source in America (with decades of experience observing the politics in that country) told me last night that it is now looking like the first time Illonois Senator will win the presidency by a landslide. YES, I was stunned myself at this information and I still am.
But why should any Kenyan in their right mind not be happy at the prospect of the son of a Kenyan from Siaya becoming president of the most powerful nation on earth? The answer can be found in the complex cut-throat game of politics.
You see despite the so called Grand coalition government, the truth is that both the PNU and ODM factions within the coalition are still bitter rivals looking for the upper hand that will carry the day when the next general elections are called. It is no secret that the man who could be the next President of the United States has some very close ties with the ODM top brass. One just needs to cast their mind back to the Obama visit last year and the feathers it ruffled in the then Kibaki government to realize what I am talking about here. Don’t forget that President Kibaki flatly refused to meet with Senator Obama during that memorable visit. Now if Obama lands in the White House, roles will be reversed and it will be president Kibaki seeking audience with Obama.
And that is in a scenario where Prime Minister Raila Odinga regularly has cell phone conversations with Obama. Naturally this makes many within the president’s inner circle very jittery and hoping against all hope for some miracle that will see John McCain somehow winning.
What worries PNU insiders is that the president of the most powerful nation is well able to make decisions that could greatly jeopardize their well laid plans. In fact those jitters extend to most of the political class and those who have made their money through dubious means.
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Don't compare Barack Obama with a Bondo Bumpkin, a self-made billionare from molasses thieving, a tribal communist who talk to his dead father every night to get guidance!!
ReplyDeleteObama is American, he will be elected as the president of America with a mandate for Americans and NOT Kenyans!
Chris,
ReplyDeleteMove on will you? Be warned that you have invited it upon yourself. We hate to hear and read some home truths, please keep them to yourself. You will get loads of MUNDANE and stale lectures that US is not Kenya and Obama is American etal. Pad your skin.
Now did you say
....don’t forget that President Kibaki flatly refused to meet with Senator Obama during that memorable visit.
Really? I thought Barack met the duly ERECTED in 2006 and joked that this is the guy who employed my dad. I may be wrong but fear you are.
Chris, why did you advise RAO to visit mama Sarah over the weekend? Is he canvassing in advance in first language to be in good books? Toboa.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteIt is time to celebrate Obama, not time to use him as a weapon to divide Kenyans. No Kenyan of note has said that Obama is a Jaluo or even a Kenya, so stop ascribing your thoughts to others in an effort to escalate the existing bad tribal atmoshere in Kenya. Plus, by navigating the American politics successfully, Obama has demonstrated beyond doubt that he is smart enough not to descend to the miasma of tribal politics of Kenya.
Help celebrate Obama, the success story, and his brand of politics - politics of uniting people and hope rather than division and fear.
VIVA OBAMA
Taabu,
ReplyDeleteStop posting your mental masturbations here. Kumekuchans are not interested in the by-products of your AUTOEROTISM.
Up with Obama, the uniter! Down with Chris and Taabu, the professional dividers and fearmongers!
ReplyDeletewho really cares what some tribal goons think of senator obama's steady rise in north american politics?
ReplyDeletethey can hate obama or like him, but it will not change the course of american politics.
tribal goons will always be tribal goons and die as such.
hate bigins at home, hate is taught (nazi style) and unfortunately, children are taught to hate from one generation to the next.
obama is an american presidential candidate and not a candidate for any of the hate ridden tribal camps in kenya.
why do you guys always have to see tribal affiliations in anything under the sun?
"my tribe this, your tribe that, their tribe that, and our tribe this"
who really cares how your so called tribe has accomplished since december 12, 1963, when dogs, cats and horses living in many counties in america have better animal hospitals, medical insurance and guaranteed legal protection than 85% of members of the tribal population in the so called republic of kenya?
i can't wait to see the when a son or daughter of kenyan immigrant becomes one of the first africans" to go into space courtesy of the nasa.
i wonder what tribe will him/her, and which one will hate her/him.
what a waste of valuable time while living on planet earth.
Obama is a political wizard. During his campaigns he never mentions where his father came from. When he was asked about his father recently, he said he remembers the father as a "really troubled man."
ReplyDeleteHe dedicated his victory in the primaries to his white grandmother (and not the Kogelo grandma), and he made sure Raila was dis-invited to the Democratic Convention. In order to win the white vote, he is trying to play down as much as possible his paternal roots. He is clever enough not to call the whites, "adui." So, this guy is not playing in the league of some village captains of Kibera.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteI am thinking you have really overexerted yourself this time in trying so hard to somehow make Kenya/ns look bad in light of Obama's success. This is pure hate-mongering and the stuff genocides are made of, plus you picked a perfect platform for it.
do you ever read back the stuff you write..?
"No way the racially charged Americans could elect Barrack Obama"
ReplyDeletehmmm-Chris are we reading the same script just different actors and venue? "no way ethnically charged Kenya could elect.....jijazie mwenywew and keep it to yourself stupid!
i'm sure you've heard of "American Dream"? That is America,a land where KCSE dropouts and standard 8 failures suddenly become free and brave-what a reversal of fortunes
Chris this is where you have failed because Obama's potential win is an idea whose time has come so why are you spoiling it by tying him even remotely to the Bondo Bumpkin and his pentagon of PEV suspects?we are stuck with our own architects of past decay-all 40 of them for the next 4 years because our "time" has not come and even so TIA(this is Africa) we don't want change we can believe in
The only way a potential Obama presidency can be good for Kenya is if Obama as a US head of State is the first sitting American president to come pay a "democratically unfriendly" and corrupt third world nation of ours a visit-this type of visit may boost our profile positively in
the ranking of other nations that are considered worthy of more than sitting US president whirlwind African tours
Chris,
ReplyDeleteObama will win because he teaches his supporters to persuade opponents as opposed to looting, raping and murdering opponents like barbarians do in Kenya.
Folks,
ReplyDeleteThe TRUTH be told OBAMA stands for GREATER IDEALS that still pies in Mars to most here. We only use his analogue to fit into our narrow agenda. We have plenty in variance. His timing was excellent and all we can say is THE WORLD DURING/AFTER OBAMA presidency will never be the same again. If only we would promptly seize on the opportunity to board the train of ideas and denounce bigoted trivia. May be we will when the tribal blinkers molt away next millennium.
Dear Chris,
ReplyDeleteHatred or hate is a word that describes intense feelings of dislike. It can be used in a wide variety of contexts, from hatred of inanimate objects to hatred of other people; unfortunately your hatred is towards the same people you share nationality, you went to school with, your local green grocers, your doctor, your former classmates etc…
In psychology, hate is defined as an ego state that wishes to destroy the source of its unhappiness. So, why are trying to destroy "our" happiness? Obama is a success story for all (every race, color and creed), and not just ODMites.
I believe your hate is more of an attitude problem in form of rage. Rage, in psychiatry, is a mental state that is one extreme of the intensity spectrum of anger. When a person experiences rage it usually lasts until a threat is removed or the person under rage is maimed/injured or killed.
If you need help, there is help available.
Dr Murinho
Consultant Psychologist
Chris,
ReplyDeleteumesikia daktari amenena?
stop na uchunge!
Dear Murinho,
ReplyDeleteSelf-pretentiouseness or "ostentatiousness" is another word
unfortunately your foot fits the shoe even though the same can't be said for the people you share nationality this platform with…
I believe your presumption is more of an arrogance problem in form of pompous self-importance-physician heal thyself but don't wait too long yours is a thin line you're crossing between pretence and make-believe
chris, wewe wacha upuzi!!!
ReplyDeleteDr Murinho,
ReplyDeleteWhile reciting your PSY 100, ever heard of REVERSE HATRTED which is dolled in faer of the unknown? You suffer the same a plenty and please self-medicate if you can and save yourself the plastic aura of self-importance bouyed by a cheering gang. Pseudo inteleect is often clothed in rogue epithets. Arrogance mutates and manifests itself in different colours but weak minds mistake it for quality verbiage.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteYou are very eloquent in your posts. Infact you may be compared to Back when he gives his speeches. In the last debate McCain rightly admitted that Obama is a talented orator. He said this when he was trying to disqualify his argument. He said you need to listen the the senator keenly to discover he is playing with words.
I have the benefit of being is the US at this time when Obama is poised to become the first non-white to occupy the "white" house. I know thepolls are showing a wide margin. I believe that margin would have been even wider had he been of the "right" race.
You are wrong on several fronts:
Just to I.D one such. Barack met Kibaki. I even remember the clip and Kibaki was joking that "he has grown really big", meaning he is not the young boy he met in the eighties.
e-cop,
ReplyDeleteDid you say
"i'm sure you've heard of "American Dream"? That is America,a land where KCSE dropouts and standard 8 failures suddenly become free and brave-what a reversal of fortunes"?
Typical of village thinking. Look, we have many Kenyans here doing great things. I and many of my close friends are here courtesy of hard work at the University of Nairobi. Upon attaining 1st class aka "a magna cum laude graduate" we were denied an opportunity to make head with our knowledge since we did not fall in the bracket of the connected ones. U.S has given us a chance and believe me, 2 years down the line and I have achieved what I will never have in Kenya.
So, mayfriend, even the illegal immigrants - those without any knowledge of kizungu, are making it BIG, what of the KCSE who made it here and can speak fluent Kizungu and also fix stuff, sweep roads?
Papi,
ReplyDeleteThe tribute was to America; nothing wrong with KCSE dropouts and standard 8 failures bro, something wrong with our kenyan system as you admit yourself
taabu why is your English and spellings so bad? you can use spell check on word doc you know?
ReplyDeleteTell us more fantasies about the kindergarten pissing contest in your mind. Who is pissing the furthest so far in your chang'aa induced hallucinations?
ReplyDeleteBarack has on more than one occasion denied this regular calls story with odinga... twice during the election crisis and once after he won the democrat nomination, and that was a congratulatory call from Odinga... Regular calls ... I think not.
ReplyDeleteThis post is a sign of old age confused sate of mind!!!
ReplyDeleteSome would like us to believe that Mwai Kibaki and his close friends at State House have stocked up on expensive champagne, senator beer and about thirty fat goats in anxious anticipation of Barrack Obama’s landslide electoral win next week. They say that Uhuru Kenyatta and Martha Karua are seriously fighting to be included on the list of Kenya Government representatives at Obama’s inauguration. They have forecasted that there will be no beer or whisky left in Central Province on November 5th in the event of Obama’s win. The portrait of a Luo man’s son will be displayed with ‘national’ pride at all kiosks in Kiambu; that’s what they say.
ReplyDeleteThis is what I say. Since Kibaki took power, Kenya has dramatically changed for the above scenarios to take place in any genuine manner. It is in fact very dangerous to wear an ‘Obama 08’ t-shirt in Nyeri.
But all is not lost my Kenyan brothers. We still have hope. This I say because I’m 100% sure that the above will also not happen if Obama looses.
BREAKING NEWS!!!
ReplyDeleteAP: US Goverment says it has broken up a plot to assassinate Barack Obama. That's according to Reuters news 20.00 hrs GMT Monday 27 Oct 2008.
Let's pray for our Obama and stop this cheap talks.
Obama need our prayers!
Dear ODMers:
ReplyDeleteIn the life and death struggle going on in our party over Waki's Report, who will blink first, The Captain or Ruto? Or more correctly, who should blink first? Shouldn't we, the members, have a say in these internal altercations among our leaders.
Phil, we need your view on this matter.
Useless article, Obama hasnt even won. the writer of this article should shut up and wait for the election results coz obama could loose.
ReplyDeleteFederal agents have broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree, the ATF said Monday.
ReplyDeleteIn court records unsealed Monday, federal agents said they disrupted plans to rob a gun store and target a predominantly African-American high school by two neo-Nazi skinheads. Agents said the skinheads did not identify the school by name.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081027/ap_on_el_pr/skinhead_plot
Although our Obama is leading according to opinion polls by a long shot, its not in the bag yet, furthermore, his life is facing increasing danger.
So, lets stop these kind of pettiness and pray for our dear son.
What a bunch of crap , it is writers like you who feed Corsi with propaganda that is detrimental to Mr Obama's chances.By the way obama met Kibaki when he was in kenya and Kibaki even told him that he has become very tall and also thathe knew his father(Obama senior), get your facts straight before writing nonsense.
ReplyDeleteKwale,
ReplyDeleteScaremongering nini?
Kimi Raikkonen—I have one question for you please. Your last name is very common here in Germany and that tells me that you are a wife to an old retired German tourist. What were you doing in Mombasa before you met your husband?
ReplyDeletetaabu,
ReplyDeleteIt's not scaremongering. I very good at breaking news here in Kumekucha thanks to the first class news reporting in my adpoted country.
Remember it's only yesterday I posted a comment about American police departments preparing for riots should Obama fails to win?
Kwale,
ReplyDeleteThe trumpet is yours, blow it harder and I am all ears. Otherwise here is the true story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7694254.stm
You are right through: OBAMA NEEDS ALL OUR PRAYERS. His is a once-in-alifetime pehnomenon - not be cheaply mistaken with idolizing. The guys stands for high IDEALS that every human being wold aspire for.
Obama has raised the bar and once elected the WORLD/POLITICS WILL NEVER BE THE SAME AGAIN. We are the once to gain the most if only we seize the opportunity, but can we?
Anon 1:46 PM,
ReplyDeleteWHO WILL BLINK FIRST?
The matter in ODM is simple. Ruto and his RV buddies did whatever it took as per agreement to provide the votes and violence that made Raila and Mudavadi what they are today in govt. Now, Raila, with his eyes firmly set on 2012 elections, want to sacrifice Ruto and his warriors while retaining the RV votes. That is not possible or acceptable.
Remember Ruto was suppossed to be a PM if ODM had formed the govt. Raila, ever the tactician, is currently negotiating with a group of Kikuyus using the promise of PM position come 2012. This Kikuyu group is not comfortable with the Kibaki-Kalonzo-Uhuru axis.
Ruto got the wind of the Raila plans. He tried reaching out to Gema through the Kiunjuru group, but his hands are still smelling Kikuyu blood. While waiting for time to clean his bloody hands, Ruto decided to bump out Mudavadi from ODM number two position in order to secure at least a vice-presidency for himself and his community. This is unacceptable to Raila and the Luhyas. It is understood that Raila honestly believes, for quite some time, that Ruto belongs to Kamiti Max Prison. Nobody appears to know the source of that intense belief.
By rooting for an immediate creation of an international tribunal, Raila and Mudavadi thought they had found an opportunity to fix Ruto without leaving any finger prints. But the plans seem to have hit some speed bumps.
With Kibaki talking of forgiveness, and the RV MPs united behind Ruto, the question of who will blink first and when is easy. Raila has already coiled his tail and is looking for a honourable retreat by asking ODM lawyers to study the Waki Report. The next scenes in this never-ending movie are familiar to Kenyans since independence and we need not preview them here.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteBinta,
ReplyDeleteSorry dear, Raikkonen, is NOT a German name! It's a Finnish name! If you're one of those sluts that marries old Wazungus, sorry to disappoint, our Kimi is a man. An F1 driver and current reigning world champion who earns cool 33 million Euros per year! So get lost!
dr murihno
ReplyDelete==
When a person experiences rage it usually lasts until a threat is removed or the person under rage is maimed/injured or killed
==
i dont quite get this generalisation
so lets say in the case of road-rage which is highly prevalent in metro areas in industrialised nations
are you suggesting that typically either
a) threat is removed (i.e road-rage victims will have to forever flee from path of road-rage warriors), i dont think this is what happens
or
b) highway/traffic police or the victim should maim, injure or kill the aggressor. i dont think so
but perhaps you could shed some more light, i probably missed something
Urxlnc,
ReplyDeleteYou will tire your jaws talking a dump and deaf witchcraft masquarading as a doc. You know once upon a time there was a doc in Kenya called Kumar? The ENT specialist scooped a patient's BRAIN during an ear operation and before the KMA could say maskio he was out of our borders. Leave the night to runners who prefer the shodows for sunlight.
Dr. Murinho,
ReplyDeleteYour cutting edge insights into certain behaviors are unrivalled.
Between your free consultations and the anthropologists (Boyz2men fame?) esteemed research, (you both are our leading lights and luminaries btw), Kenya will be freed from the bondage of hate, anger, irresponsibility etc that keeps holding us back. We will move forward into the sunset, happy, united and prosperous.
God love you!
Thanks for your post Chris. They tried to emasculate the Luo in Kenya but forgot that we luos have tentacles everywhere. Whether the MKM kitchen cabinet kithni, chapni or ndekni, obama is marwa and telo also wangni marwa! Ha! Ti gi la daho! Tho!
ReplyDeleteBravo, Kwale. Thanks for telling the Binta facts. Looks like she is too zonked out in the streets of Germany after blowing old men too hard.
ReplyDeleteDr Murinho;
ReplyDeleteThe village madman thinks he is the only sane person around. I rest my case.
Truth be told, the Panua Mongrels thought, this is how they still think, "how can a son of a njaruo become the plesident of the most powerfur countly in the waud? Impossibo! a kihii can never be erected..."
ReplyDeleteRight now they have FRAUDULENTLY "fallen in line" because most indicators seem to indicate that Obama will WIN and WIN BIG.
They (the panua mongrels) are still heavily infected with their primitive, stupid, and backward tribal hatred (especially of the Luo) and anything to do with the Luo in a demented and seriously irrational way.
Remember that when Obama was still battling it out with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic party nomination ticket, they cheered very loudly and happily when Hillary won any state and became very quiet and sad, tail between the legs whenever Obama won.
They may pretend that they are on Obama's side with their comments here but believe me they are not. Their pumbavu hatred filled minds still pray that somehow McCain manage to pull a surprise (by for example stealing the election like Kibaki did over here)
Malo Malo Obama Malo,
ReplyDeletekidokie somo Jaluo malo,
Jokanam Jaluo malo,
Kidoke ber Jaluo malo,
Kata e siasa Agwambo malo.
Alego Kogelo you have been blessed with a powerful blood which can not be found anywhere in Africa.
Belief in democratic principles, hard work laced with fairness and truth. This is what people of the lake stand for. Karatina emulate this....
Malo Malo kisumu slum Malo,
ReplyDeletekidokie somo Jaluo jinga malo,
Jokanam Jaluo fara malo,
Kidoke ber Jaluo moron malo,
Kata e siasa molasses malo
When thinking of rage, the first thing that comes to mind is road rage and the various acts that stem from road rage. Most people who has sat behind a wheel has experienced some form of road rage; whether it be cursing at someone who has cut you off in traffic or giving the middle finger when someone steals your parking spot, most people have succumb to rage while in the car. Giving the finger when a driver cuts you off in traffic may be a normal reaction. However, when that normal reaction escalates, in psychology it is called intermittent explosive disorder (IED).
ReplyDeleteAccording to psychology, rage is a behavior that every person exhibits in some form. Rage is often used to denote hostile/affective/reactive aggression (as distinct from predatory/instrumental/proactive aggression). It denotes aggression where there is anger present, that is motivated by causing harm to others, and that is characterized by impulsive thinking and a lack of planning. This is a behavioral side that many would not like others to see, but does often persist in extreme situations. Some psychologists, argue that the hostile/predatory dichotomy that is commonly employed in psychology fails to define rage fully, since it is possible for anger to motivate aggression, provoking vengeful behavior, without incorporating the impulsive thinking that is characteristic of rage.
Expression of rage can be very intense, often distinguished by distorted facial expressions and by threat (or execution) of physical attack. Rage is a physiologically based affective reaction to experiencing high levels of pain or displeasure. Psychologists have seen rage as caused by being more of an attack on one's self than of others. This leads to rage being more intense, less focused and longer lasting. This same idea suggests rage is a narcissistic response to one’s past injuries.
When dealing with rage, we have to ask ourselves, what emotional forces cause individuals to express aggression, hostility, anger, hate or rage evolving into violence. Aggression stems from rage in which aggression focuses on action or behavior as opposed to emotion or effect.
There is help available.
Dr Murinho
Consultant Psychologist
dr murinho @ 3:31 AM, you have wasted a lot of time and space. You have said absolutely nothing. At best your post is irrelevant.
ReplyDeleteBy the way if you are really a Psychologist, you need to do something that has never been done before - a first - you need to "consult" yourself for treatment. You, my friend, need a lot of help.
There is help available, treat yourself. The world will have one person less who is out of touch with reality and out of his senses.
dr murinho
ReplyDeletequote excerpt from an article
"Putting the Brakes on Road Rage
SDSU Professor Examines Causes"
==
... studied the subject for more than five years, said common causes of road rage include being cut off or tailgated and motorists who weave through traffic or drive erratically while talking on cellular phones...
==
whereas as you look for business by approaching potential victims (aka clients) in the form of "help is available"
if you look at the patterns of behavior leading to road rage is that someone breaks conventional process (in the case of road rage it is inadvertent or intentional flouting of traffic rules, in our case it was manipulation or flaws electoral and democratic process)
why you want us to spend time studying the rage and manifestation is understandable from your point of view (i.e it would lead to many clients) but is akin to going to a sporting event (football, olympics etc) and watching the spectators.
i will leave it at that for now
but if you need further expounding on the underlying meaning, help is available.
If you're a good Kenyan, pray for Obama.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow (Wednesday), he will appear in Florida, home to a large number of white supremacists and neo-nazi skinheads. Even as details of assassination plot emerged today, the secret agents guarding obama only found out about it yesterday.
If you want Obama to win then pray for his safety!
America is notorious with political assassinations.
A man stunned a Nakuru court after he pleaded guilty to having carnal knowledge of a cow.
ReplyDeleteVincent Ekeno Ng’ang’a told chief magistrate Wilbroda Juma that he was not in stable mind when he committed.
"I do not know what got into me. All I know is that I was not myself that day, please have mercy on me," Ng’ang’a said.
Ng’ang’a was charged that on October 22 at Kale farm in Bahati, Nakuru District he committed the offence.
The court heard that the owner of the cow Mr Nicholas Kibiwott caught him pants down and took him to Solai Police Station.
Ng’ang’a was sentenced to four years imprisonment.
By the way, people who are PNU damu are also Obama damu. I went 2 shags last Sunday (Githunguri) n they're pretty excited about an Obama victory, including the older generation who are Kibaki damu.
ReplyDeleteAnon 1:00 "Bradley Effect Kenyan Style."
ReplyDeleteAnon @ 1.45pm
ReplyDeleteEnthusiasm cannot lie. The pro-Obama enthusiasm that I witnessed in shags (Githunguri) last Sunday, especially from the wazees, was amazing. Also, the poll below show that 82% of kiuks support Obama.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111265/Despite-Approval-Bush-Africans-Favor-Obama.aspx
FYI, people in Central are warming up to Raila coz he supports the Waki report and he's pretty accessible unlike the baks who behaves like he's retired.
I don't think there's any Kenyan in Kenya who's fought Internet battles for Obama like me. When people say he's a socialist, I say Americans will pay lowers taxes under Obama than under Reagan, a republican.
http://www.barackobama.com/taxes/
When McCain was leading in the polls just after the Republican convention and coz of Palin, I was depressed. Just ask my bibi. When Obama regained in the polls coz of the Wall Street collapse, I was so happy. Ever time there's bad US economic news, I get excited coz it makes Obama more popular, the most recent being the Q3 GQP contraction.
I've been incurring an Internet bill of 15k a month, a figure that will reduce to 6k a month after the US elections.
What Kenyan politicians can learn from Obama is not to bother campaigning in areas where they're either too popular or too unpopular. Obama didn't bother campaigning in areas that are Republican damu (he said he's never visited Alaska) or Democrat damu (like California).
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/obama-never-been-to-alaska/2762734619
He only focused his bobs and energy on swing states like Colorado. He's also partnered with Republicans in the Senate to pass vital legislation.
http://obama.senate.gov/press/070111-lugar-obama_non/
Obama will win coz the betting markets accurately predicted the Bush victories in 2000 and 2004, and now they're overwhelmingly backing Obama.
http://www.intrade.net/