What Is Really Going On In Kenyan Politics?

Is history about to repeat itself?

Regular readers of Kumekucha are well aware of the fact that weeks ago our columnists here started sounding off Kenyans on the desperate power struggle unfolding around the president.

It is only in the last week or so that this has clearly come out into the open as justice minister Martha Karua has made her intentions to run for the presidency in 2012 very clear.

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Indeed it is as if the country is back to 1976 and the infamous change-the-constitution move which was designed to stop the then Vice President Daniel arap Moi from automatically ascending into power in an acting capacity, in the event of the death of President Kenyatta. Clearly politicians at the time who were privy to information on the president’s health knew very well of the strokes Kenyatta had suffered and the fact that he usually drifted in and out of comas. It was really just a matter of time before he passed on.

So naturally a very intense no holds barred power struggle around President Kenyatta started. Ironically it was this infighting that ended up handing over the presidency to Daniel arap Moi on a silver platter. The question political analysts are pondering is, is history about to repeat itself?

For months now, right before the general election, this blogger has been receiving information from many different sources to the effect that all is not well with the duly elected president’s health. Apparently he is constantly on medication and has to receive several jabs before he can make any public appearance. Now some very alarming reports have started trickling in (which this writer is yet to verify from independent sources) to the effect that the president is suffering from an incurable disease that affects memory and the mind. In any case, any close observer of the president who knows him well will be able to tell you right away that the president is not the same man and all is surely not well.

However the clearest sign to date that there is something very wrong somewhere has been the behaviour of politicians, especially those within the PNU fold. Just watching them will convince you that surely there will be a general election in the country much sooner than 2012.

Then there is the considerable pressure that is now being suffered by a politician who has no track record for soaking in any pressure. And that is Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka. It is no accident that members of his own party—ODM-K have intensified plans for a coup within the party that is designed to throw him out. There are even reports from some quarters that a major cabinet re-shuffle is looming which will see Kalonzo dropped from the Vice presidency in favor of Kibaki’s favored heir.

Ironically in 1976 many people waited for just such a cabinet re-shuffle to drop the then vice president, Daniel arap Moi. But, alas, it never came and the then Vice president survived to ascend to the presidency. Are we about to see history repeating itself?

Some political analysts point to the fact that there is a very huge and colossal difference between Daniel arap Moi in 1976-78 and Kalonzo Musyoka 2006-2008. Moi had a solid grassroots backing especially on his home turf in the Rift valley. Kalonzo Musyoka has serious political problems in how own backyard where election results clearly showed that he does not have any solid backing in Ukambani. In fact the Vice President performed dismally in Ukambani considering the fact that he was a presidential candidate from the community. If one takes into account the fact that there were much fewer registered voters in 1997 when Charity Ngilu stood for the presidency, it is obvious she faired much better in Ukambani than Kalonzo did last December.

ODM supporters are quick to rubbish the rapid developments taking place within PNU that generally spell doom for the party and in recent days even the Prime Minister himself seems to have moved into campaign mode and revisited the controversial issue of a stolen election emphasizing the fact that his party would still win the presidency it was cheated out of come the next elections. He has however been quick to emphasize that the grand coalition government will run its’ full course.

In the midst of all this political storms and realignments a ticking time bomb has been totally ignored. Various factors including steeply rising fuel prices have put the ordinary man under considerable pressure in their ability to put food on the table, let alone cover other basic costs like house rent. Some experts believe that food riots in the country are not very far off.

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