Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi has quite a reputation. He’s the man who predicted that President Kibaki would never hand over power peacefully in the event that he was defeated in an election. He also predicted tribal chaos long before anybody saw it coming. Many prominent Kenyans (who knew better) rubbished those suggestions which were voiced as early as 2003 but in the end the man was proved correct. In fact one particular column of his in the Sunday Nation (published in 2003), which has been widely circulated on the web has proved to be extremely accurate as far as predictions go.
So these days when the man talks, everybody sits up and listens carefully.
Mr Ngunyi’s latest bombshell is that we have now heard the last of the Grand Regency sale controversy. Nothing more will come out of it, the political analyst says. And he has good reasons to back his views. It is simply this; the government has been accused of being corrupt, so do we seriously expect the same government to investigate itself and find itself guilty?
I respect Mr Ngunyi but this time round I do not quite agree with him.
My view is that historians will one day clearly identify the Kimunya censure debate as the turning point in Kenyan politics. The moment in history where the people started taking back their country.
I am also convinced that this is not the last we have heard of the Grand Regency scam. There are more earth-shaking events linked to the scandal that will follow.
For starters there is a very high possibility that former Finance Minister Amos Kimunya could easily find himself arraigned in court on criminal charges.
Unknown to most Kenyans is the fact that the current no holds-barred Kibaki sucession battle is at a very dangerous point where you cross the combatants at your own risk because the consequences could be fairly severe.
Perhaps the clearest indication that things are not what they seem to be was the public statement by one Martha Karua on the Grand Regency scam. The statement was made at around the time Kimunya had started drumming up disgusting tribal support to excuse and cover up his crimes and long string of lies, most of it recorded on national Television.
The no-nonsense Ms Karua who fears nothing said that people should not handle public property as if it were their personal property. And that those who have responsibilities of handling such property should be careful to follow the existing laws of the land.
There was no doubt whatsoever as to whom she was referring to. And if there was the slightest doubt, the actions of her arch rival in the Kibaki succession, one Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta just went further to confirm exactly what was happening. Uhuru who has never been known to be friendly to Kimunya before, hurriedly rushed to his side and started issuing public statements in his support.
Most Kenyans would pass out in shock if they knew the kind of money that the son of Jomo spent between 2003 and 2007 in the hope of succeeding President Kibaki after his first term. At one point of this circus, there was a room full of mzungus staring at many flickering TV screens at that smart Building called Chancery Towers opposite the Nairobi Pentecostal church, Valley road. Apparently they were carefully monitoring public opinion on their presidential candidate so as to advice accordingly on the next move. All that money went down the drain because what the mzungu experts did not know is that in Kenya politics does not quite work out like that.
But Uhuru’s ambitions are intact and he is still very determined to take over power from the man who gave him his name (Uhuru) when he was born in State House in 1964. The only stumbling block to his nomination were two stubborn characters who were moving at a speed he did not like one was Amos Kimunya who has now been taken care of. But the other is still at large. It is one Ms Martha Karua who strongly believes in her heart that the son of Jomo does not have “the balls” to be President of the republic of Kenya.
Now for Karua to send a clear message to her opponent there is the very high possibility that things could move fairly fast and Mr Kimunya may just find himself facing a judge on criminal charges. In many ways I feel pity for Mr Kimunya, mainly because of his political naivety which has already cost him so much and could cost him more. In this game, being the president’s friend and a close friend of those very close to him means absolutely nothing when push comes to shove. In fact it could turn out to be pretty dangerous when cover up operations take off. Because to protect those whose names State House does not want to ever come out in connection to the Grand Regency scandal, it may just be necessary to sacrifice poor Kimunya further.
Folks to sum it all up, there is some very dirty politics going on in the background.