I have never trusted Daniel arap Moi despite the fact that he was a much better president than Mwai “vote thief” Kibaki will ever be. Indeed historians are already re-writing the Moi chapter as they contrast it sharply with the chaotic blundering Kibaki “error” (and not era) which has completely lacked in any semblance of leadership.
But what really concerns me and should concern every Kenyan is the former president’s current political activities in the Rift Valley.
There is now a strong push to rebuild KANU and guess who the new party leader is? It is one Gideon Moi, the immediate former MP for Baringo Central and the former president’s favorite son.
Moi’s plan is really very simple. The idea is to get the vast majority of Kalenjins away from ODM and to rally behind one political party which in this case is KANU. It seems that the older Moi believes that he knows a thing or two about the Kalenjin that Raila Odinga and ODM may not be aware of. One of these “facts” is that the Kalenjins can change their minds in a flash. Especially if a little cash is used here and there to help a few opinion leaders see the sense. The old man is a great believer in “kirigits.” A kirigit is the cow in the herd that all other cows follow blindly and without asking too many questions.
The ultimate strategy is for the Kalenjin to form a coalition with the Mount Kenya tribes in 2012. Indeed it is not lost on the former president that it is highly unlikely that the house of Mumbi will field a presidential candidate in the next elections so soon after Mwai Kibaki. So what is most likely to happen is that the Mount Kenya tribes will be forced to rally behind a Gideon Moi presidency. Now which Kalenjin in their right mind would not want to support one of their own for the presidency?
Already the folks at ODM are feeling the heat of Daniel Moi’s frenzied activity in the Rift Valley and no man is feeling more “roasted” just now than William Ruto. It is said that he has been told in the face to organize for the freedom of post election violence suspects immediately or forget a future in politics anywhere in the Rift Valley.
So will Moi’s crazy plan work?
Actually the more pertinent question should be; will peace and the coalition hold in light of such frantic political activity of the tribal kind? The answer to that question has to be a firm NO.
Ironically the Moi plan is being packaged as a peace initiative for the Kalenjin and you will have heard leaders from the region making statements to the effect that they support the former president’s peace initiatives in the province.
This is really crazy because Moi and comoany seem to have completely ignored the raw wounds in the province that have been brought about by the post election troubles earlier this year.
In my view the most dangerous thing about the activities of the older Moi lies in the fact that the old man has lost it. Life and politics in Kenya has changed considerably and he can no longer play the game effectively. He should just go home and rest and forget the whole thing.
One big mistake Moi is making is that his plans do not factor in the coming famine and serious food shortages that the country is very likely to face. They also completely ignore the coming “class war” where ordinary folks will rise above tribal sentiments and face their real enemies. Namely those who have gotten very rich by stealing public funds and then rushing back to their communities for protection.
In fact Daniel Moi does not seem to be aware of the rapidly emerging political force in the Rift Valley that was most responsible for handing him and his team a resounding defeat in the last elections. I am talking about the relatively youthful voters who can never bite the same old baits that Moi used to rule Kenya for 24 uninterrupted years.
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