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Thursday, October 11, 2007

Why Kibaki Must Win

First things first and you don’t have to be superstitious nor religious to see the jinx. Kibaki has a strange jinx in ten years going for him in his political career. He was a Finance Minister for ten years, VP for ten years and in the opposition for ten years too. And why would one imagine that he won’t keep that tradition going by serving as President for ten years?

Despite REAL threat to his Presidency, a defeat for Emilio spells doom and death to Kenya’s infant democracy. Come to think of it soberly please before you throw any e-stones at me. If Kibaki loses, can he afford to go to Parliament as the leader of the opposition? Ask Paul Martin, the immediate ex-PM of Canada. The humiliation is immeasurable and the guy relinquished any trace of responsibility on losing last year’s elections to the Conservative candidate Stephen Harper.

In retrospect a Kibaki win would be a blessing in disguise for the wider good. Counterfactually, his loss would dramatically change Kenya’s political landscape like never seen before. Everybody hanging on his coattails have their eyes singularly trained on 2012.

Kibaki is the honeycomb attracting all the political bees to PNU. He loses, the honey dissipates and the opportunists disintegrate into all the four corners of the world. A Kibaki loss would throw the already highly volatile succession issue for 2012 into total disarray.

The calculus won’t gel; neither differentiate nor integrate. The turbulent political currents running under the unity smokescreen in PNU would bust its banks. Saitoti and Uhuru are not fools to board and fund a marine vehicle destined to the wrong coast. It doesn’t need the cognitive skills of nuclear physics to foresee a disintegrating and disastrous opposition in the event of Kibaki losing.

The ensuring political fluidity would make chaos of 2003-5 look like a political honeymoon. The scoundrels that are our MPs all unfortunately believe their selfish interests can only be generously served while in Government. They won’t bat an eyelid in shamelessly crossing over to the side wielding the yam and the knife.

The end result will be a rebirth of another GNU of loose and boundless dimensions bereft of teeth to sink into any substantive agenda. With no formidable opposition to sustain objectivity, such an eventuality with be tantamount to engraving Kenya’s parliament’s epitaph in golden letters. Are we ready or inadvertently propping that ugly scenario? I don’t know and may be you good people out there can shed some light in that gloomy predicament, far-fetched but possible.

7 comments:

kalamari said...

Whereas It would be an embarrassment for Kibaki to jostle for space within opposition benches, it would be a well deserved one. Kalonzo and Kibaki are in the fight of their lives; to see who will succeed Uhuru (or whatever he is right now).
That said, the type of helter skelter to be witnessed within the opposition right after Raila positions his behind on the red seat with the court of arms on its back will be exactly what you see when you suddenly turn on a flashlight focused on a ravenous bunch of sewer rats in a feeding frenzy at some dark alley.

Anyway, for love of country, I would prefer to see a completely united and credible opposition. With the euphoric mandate that will propel ODM to take over the reigns of power, it is possible that what begins as a righteous march to liberty may well turn out to be a stampede to nowhere. If Raila does not disappoint, the next parliament may turn out to be the most important in our lifetimes. With punctured egos, some of the most fiercest ODM critics may not fully capture the zeal needed to countercheck a Raila administration, however, there may be hope within some freshmen MPs out to earn their stripes. A perfect candidate would have been a known Kumekucha fellow who appears to have been given an offer even he couldn't refuse….in addition to loosing votes by merely alluding the party of his choice.

With that I urge you all to pray to the democratic god who only wants a fair election with no evidence of rigging or vote buying. Additionally, pray that when the whooping of the current administration finally settles down in early January, the will have been lashed so thoroughly that they would have no choice but to stick together (safety in numbers) thereby providing us a formidable opposition…even though an aching and bleeding one.

Sue said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sue said...

Kalamari all I can say is Amen!

Phil said...

Wishful thinking Taabu. Theoretical to say the least. Those bees are being attracted to the mzinga ya nyuki as an office not an individual. Facts on the ground are like this as at this afternoon in Nairobi:

http://politics.nationmedia.com/inner.asp?pcat=NEWS&cat=TOP&sid=721
Steadman poll: Raila stretches gap over Kibaki
12 October 2007
By NATION Reporter

ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga has widened his lead over the incumbent Mwai Kibaki in the latest opinion poll released today by Nairobi’s Steadman Group.

The poll gives Mr Odinga 53 per cent, Mr Kibaki 37 per cent and ODM-Kenya’s Kalonzo Musyoka eight per cent.

The ratings show that the ODM candidate has gained six points from two weeks ago when the same pollster had him at 47 per cent.

President Kibaki has dropped by one point while Mr Musyoka has maintained his eight per cent over the same period.

The polls were conducted between 10-11th October covering all districts countrywide.

The pollsters interviewed 2,736 respondents.

More details soon.
----end-------

Although we in ODM have not uncorked the champagne bottles...yet...enough beers are flowing this evening. Enough Said!

kalamari said...

Kusema ukweli, my 1994 Dom Perignon is already chilling in my small ice box. In fact, the surety of Raila's win is ruining the anticipation fever. We need a few up hiccups along this grand march.


PS. So who really silenced Moi and why? Of course, it was not the booing in the rift. It appears Kibaki is trying to hoodwink jamaas by keeping some distance from his very own missing-one-lower-tooth twin brother. The truth is that Kenyans have already seen the type of tryst these bosom buddies have been engaging in during those state house meetings. Hata Kibaki akimkataa Moi, wakenya wanajua mama yao ni mmoja.

paul said...

Kalamari, Mzee was apparently advised by elders to go slow because he was losing respect by being seen to be booed by even small children! So to avoid further humiliation he stopped his campaigns...

Anonymous said...

CHRIS. WHY DO YOU ALLOW KALAMARI TO INSULT THE FORMER PRESIDENT DANIEL ARAP MOI? WHY? I take great exception in the way he is insulting Moi. It is unfair and uncalled for. Is this blog meant to exchange mature opinion or childish insults? I wish to ask you to ban the following persons: (1) Phil (2)Kalamari (3) Kioko.
Take note that we have lots of bloggs where insults are the order of the day. Do you want our esteemed site to be reduced to petty politics and insults? Again, I appeal to you to ban contributions from the trio. They are just spreading tribal hatred which seems to be taking root in our beloved country. Please take action. NOW!!
Thanks and God bless you. anony.

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