First things first and you don’t have to be superstitious nor religious to see the jinx. Kibaki has a strange jinx in ten years going for him in his political career. He was a Finance Minister for ten years, VP for ten years and in the opposition for ten years too. And why would one imagine that he won’t keep that tradition going by serving as President for ten years?
Despite REAL threat to his Presidency, a defeat for Emilio spells doom and death to Kenya’s infant democracy. Come to think of it soberly please before you throw any e-stones at me. If Kibaki loses, can he afford to go to Parliament as the leader of the opposition? Ask Paul Martin, the immediate ex-PM of Canada. The humiliation is immeasurable and the guy relinquished any trace of responsibility on losing last year’s elections to the Conservative candidate Stephen Harper.
In retrospect a Kibaki win would be a blessing in disguise for the wider good. Counterfactually, his loss would dramatically change Kenya’s political landscape like never seen before. Everybody hanging on his coattails have their eyes singularly trained on 2012.
Kibaki is the honeycomb attracting all the political bees to PNU. He loses, the honey dissipates and the opportunists disintegrate into all the four corners of the world. A Kibaki loss would throw the already highly volatile succession issue for 2012 into total disarray.
The calculus won’t gel; neither differentiate nor integrate. The turbulent political currents running under the unity smokescreen in PNU would bust its banks. Saitoti and Uhuru are not fools to board and fund a marine vehicle destined to the wrong coast. It doesn’t need the cognitive skills of nuclear physics to foresee a disintegrating and disastrous opposition in the event of Kibaki losing.
The ensuring political fluidity would make chaos of 2003-5 look like a political honeymoon. The scoundrels that are our MPs all unfortunately believe their selfish interests can only be generously served while in Government. They won’t bat an eyelid in shamelessly crossing over to the side wielding the yam and the knife.
The end result will be a rebirth of another GNU of loose and boundless dimensions bereft of teeth to sink into any substantive agenda. With no formidable opposition to sustain objectivity, such an eventuality with be tantamount to engraving Kenya’s parliament’s epitaph in golden letters. Are we ready or inadvertently propping that ugly scenario? I don’t know and may be you good people out there can shed some light in that gloomy predicament, far-fetched but possible.