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Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Are All The Polls Putting Raila Ahead Rigged?


The latest Steadmann poll puts ODM presidential hopeful, Raila Odinga slightly ahead of President Kibaki. 44% of those polled said that they would vote for Raila while 40% said they preferred President Kibaki. Only 10% said that they would for Kalonzo Musyoka.

This is the only survey by Steadmann where it has been revealed how the survey was financed. This particular one was paid for by the Standard Newspapers group.

However the poll was conducted ONLY in Nairobi.

This is very surprising because most analysts (including those leaving comments in this blog have always been sure of a Kibaki victory in Nairobi.)

Of course there are also those wonderful Kumekucha readers who believe that any poll that puts Raila ahead of Kibaki has been rigged or is just plain propaganda. I will be very interested in what Jeff and PKW have to say about this latest Steadmann poll.

As reported here, some days back, all the figures coming in are telling a story that nobody wants to believe. They seem to suggest that if the election were to be held today, Raila Odinga would not only win, he would win by a landslide.

Other strategies to halt Raila’s popularity that even I thought would work very effectively seem to be falling flat. For instance the circumcision thing that Simeon Nyachae tried to pull off in his Kisii stronghold has backfired badly and we are seeing photographs on the front page of newspapers of Kisii people burning effigies of Mr Nyachae.

Deep in Central province, there is a lot of discontent against the Kibaki administration. In my view...

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Phil said...

Chris, I see you have a big banner today proclaiming 91 days to go to the general election (or is it new year?) What is your basis of arriving at this figure?

Or has Kibaki sent you a message to confirm that he is dissolving parliament and announcing an election date? Those two events alone gives the incumbent a huge advantage over his opponents in terms of strategic planning. I doubt if he will reveal that anytime soon taken opinion polls are not in his favour and his coalition is in complete disarray.

It appears Kibaki is now fighting hard to win a third (not fourth) province in the presidential race. So far, he is ahead in Central and Eastern only , and ODM is breathing hard down his neck, very hard, to gain some ground if not be at par in Eastern through Ukambani. Kalonzo and Ngilu have a clear chance to play the same role Raila played in 2002. They can unite as Kamba's and sacrifice their ambitions and join/support ODM for the sake of replacing a rogue regime, and be henceforth considered patriots in the eyes of the national electorate.

chris said...

Phil, about our countdown to the elections, christened; the Luka Countdown Msema kweli;

For our count down to elections in our main Kumekucha site we have taken the latest possible date for the election which will be 27th and 28th December 2007. There have been strong indications that the president is eager to have the elections done before Christmas so that Kenyans can enjoy their holidays without pending polls hanging over their heads. However this seems more unlikely by the day, as a result of several emerging factors including the delay in printing of ballot papers caused by an ongoing court case filed by a company that lost the lucrative tender. A high court judge has ordered the Electoral commission to halt all work on the ballot papers. Still there is the possibility, albeit remote, that elections could still come earlier than the 27th/28th date (the extra day is usually to allow for an extension of voting if necessary.)


derek said...

Phil, what is your basis of ODM's clear-cut lead? I think Kibaki has beachhead in Nairobi, similar to Raila's Bondo. Kibaki has more than 20 seats tucked in Central, close to five in Nairobi, Several in Rift Valley, considering the DP voting patterns in Nakuru, Naivasha, Molo, Kinangop, Nyahururu, Laikipia and areas that one DTM will dilver without breaking sweat.

Kibaki will get at worst, at least three seats in Kisii, if the undisputed King of ABAGUSI says, mop-up a few in Coast and why not, the BUKUSU vote in Western. Then, Raila will go equals with Kalonzo and Kibaki in COast and share NFD with Raila. All this is for one reason Phil.

The reason is - IN KENYA WE VOTE ALONG TRIBAL LINES. Whether Moi castigates Raila and ODM or not. Take note.

Kibaki will be the next president of Kenya. Ahera yangoja ODM

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