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Many readers here have repeatedly stated that removing an incumbent from power in Africa is very difficult.
One of the reasons why this is so true is because the presidential team has the benefit of intelligence reports from the shadowy NSIS (National Security Intelligence Services) which covers the entire country.
As you read this the incumbent has a pretty good idea of the possible voting patterns on the ground in every constituency in the country. In other words taxpayers are paying for President Kibaki’s campaign.
This is one of the reasons why predictions sometimes are so difficult to believe. I now have two different sources who have predicted that the incumbent will lose these elections. One is a man whose predictions have been spot on since ‘92.
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Chris,
ReplyDeleteIs it not funny that you acknowledge that Kibaki would be getting raw grassroot information from the NSIS which is probably very correct (but he can disagree with like Moi did!!) but still want to believe some voodoo bone juggling predictor to tell you that the incumbent is on his way out?
Food for thought though: If Kibaki wins the re-lection bid, it will be fine for him, and if he loses the bid, it will be okay! He is the type of character who annoys many people with this attitude!
Chris, NSIS is the former Special Branch of the Kenya Police department. Their role is to secretly gather intelligence on behalf of Kenya Government and moreso the president himself. The data includes internal, external and strategic intelligence all of which is critical to proper management of public affairs..
ReplyDeleteAm told that their headquarters off Thika Road is one of the most advanced in this part of the world, in terms of technology deployed. Ever since the 1997 bomb blast, NSIS agents are now being trained by FBI as their sophisticated equipment is supplied by the US govt..You are absolutely right when you say Kibaki is aware of all opposition political activities including that of his own cabinet ministers. They also tap telephone lines, faxes and e-mail messages.
And again, the NSIS's role is critical to our own national security, but the Government will continue to misuse this agency for political reasons. Yet their work is done in secret. Even your road side mahindi choma vendor, or mali kwa mali (mare kwa mare) hawker could be an NSIS informer without public knowledge. NSIS has a big budget of a whopping Kshs. 4 Billion annually, or approximately Kshs. 330m per month! To put you in perspective, ECK have demanded Kshs. 8 Billion for this year's general election, while the famous CDF will receive Kshs.10 billion for all the 210 constituencies! But I continue to wonder why, for example, NSIS have not infiltrated Mungiki cult and advised government how to eliminate this menace.
We must not forget the NSIS is made of people who also lead normal and have basic emotions, and therefore have certain inclination to different political parties. Is it possible that the opposition have unoffical access to NSIS reports? Take Raila's allegations regarding the Artur brothers as an example, how did Raila come to know of their existence and how did he come to possess copies of their Armenian passports, and tell us what was their mission in Kenya?